The Oil Wars

If you are looking for one word to explain Trump’s decision for starting these wars, it would be “oil.”

“Energy dominance is a blueprint for rewiring the American economy for the age of AI before China can do the same,” explains Business Insider.

Other points made in this analysis include:

“(T)he plan boils down to three steps: maximize America's share of the world's energy supply, especially its fossil fuels; leverage the hell out of 'em; and then make rivals both foreign and domestic bend the knee.”

“American-controlled fossil fuels can now be used to try to push other countries into compliance with our petrostate.”

“But that dominance is not total, and the Trumpists see China as the biggest threat to it. Beijing's solar, wind, and battery tech has become so efficient and cheap that it's undercutting the appeal of US-controlled fossil fuels.”

“(The) Trumpists insist (that) energy dominance is more than simply an instrument of geopolitical leverage. It's a blueprint for rewiring the American economy for the age of AI before China can do the same. AI data centers require massive amounts of power, and the only way to reliably supply it at the scale required, the administration has claimed, is with fossil fuels. Wind and solar power are too susceptible to the elements.”

There are other factors at play here for sure, but the Business Insider analysis is one deserving of serious thought.

HEADLINES:

• Drilled: How Trump's "energy dominance" plan helped fuel the new war in Iran (Business Insider)

• Iran targets U.S. allies, hits American Embassy in Riyadh (Axios)

• U.S. shuts embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait after drone attacks; Israeli troops stage incursion into Lebanon (NBC)

• US nationals urged to leave Middle East as conflict spreads (BBC)

• Cuba Is Next (Atlantic)

• Secret talks, a firefight off Cuba and 72 hours of near silence from Trump (Miami Herald)

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination will likely backfire. Here is why (Al Jazeera)

• Hegseth: ‘We didn’t start this war but under President Trump we’re finishing it’ (NPR)

• Trump says Iran operations likely to last 4 to 5 weeks, but he’s prepared ‘to go far longer’ (AP)

• Trump pursues Iranian decapitation without a plan for what comes next (WP)

• Israel strikes Lebanon after Hezbollah rocket fire as Iran conflict widens (BBC)

• Iran and allied armed groups fired missiles at Israel, Arab states and U.S. military targets around the region on Monday, while Israel and the United States pounded Iran as the war expanded to several fronts. Kuwait mistakenly shot down three American warplanes over its skies, but the U.S. military said all six pilots ejected safely and are in stable condition. However, the U.S. casualties of the war have risen as U.S. Central Command confirmed a fourth U.S. member succumbed to their injuries. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth offered zero guidance on to how long the war would last at his press conference. [AP]

• War isn’t what it once was (Silver Bulletin)

• How a pacemaker for the brain could help Parkinson’s patients (CNN)

• When Does the AI Bubble Burst? (Counter Punch)

• AI Will Never Be Conscious (Wired)

• AI doing 75 per cent of office tasks, but employees have to work 5x more: Founder explains how automation increases workload (Economic Times)

• AI saves me hours every week — here are the 9 ways I use it (Tom’s Guide)

• China’s Parents Are Outsourcing the Homework Grind to A.I. (NYT)

• Nation Forced To Eat 35 Million Canadians To Survive Harsh Winter (Onion)

 

Domestic Consequences

If anyone is thinking that at least our would-be dictator is striking overseas instead of at home, think again.

Trump’s illegal wars, first in Venezuela, now Iran and apparently soon in Cuba are having and will have severe consequences here in the U.S.

These wars are illegal under the Constitution because only Congress can declare war.

Other presidents have challenged that fundamental clause but this one is shredding it before our eyes.

Over the last year his main assaults on our democratic way of life were domestic — mass deportations, taking revenge against his political enemies and demolishing federal agencies he doesn’t like.

But in most cases, the courts have tempered his actions, at least temporarily delaying some of his executive orders and stopping others altogether. Even the Supreme Court has stood up to him, a little bit.

Overseas, there is no such check, barring a global anti-U.S. movement led by our (former) allies, should they be able to muster that.

HEADLINES:

• The Death of Khamenei and the End of an Era (Atlantic)

• U.S. military says 1,000 targets hit in Iran, 3 American troops killed; Tehran retaliates (WP)

• War widens as Israeli and US planes pound Iran and Tehran and its proxies hit back (AP)

• The C.I.A. Helped Pinpoint a Gathering of Iranian Leaders. Then Israel Struck. (NYT)

• The US burned through more of its limited Tomahawk stockpile in strikes on Iran (BI)

• Trump’s Iran Gamble (FA)

• Could the Supreme Court’s Voting Rights Act Decision Affect the Midterms? (NYT)

• With Ellisons set to take control of CNN and HBO, Trump allies claim victory (WP)

• Worms in food, poor medical care, lights on 24/7: Families tell of life in Texas detention center (AP)

• America Isn’t Ready for What AI Will Do to Jobs (Atlantic)

• What’s Really at Stake in the Fight Between Anthropic and the Pentagon (WSJ)

• Wall Street’s AI panic is real. The predictions probably won’t be. (WP)

• Trump orders US agencies to stop using Anthropic technology in clash over AI safety (AP)

• The week the AI scare turned real and America realized maybe it isn’t ready for what’s coming (Fortune)

• Prosthetic Hand Recipient Slowly Relearning To Lick Barbecue Sauce Off Fingers (Onion)

 

War in the Morning

With so much unknown at this point, the Times has a useful guide to the war in the Middle East this morning: “What to Know About the U.S. Attacks on Iran.”

But this all only makes sense as the action of a power-mad President in league. with a militaristic Israel.

Together, they’ve decapitated Iran’s senior leadership, and nobody knows what comes next.

HEADLINES:

• Israel renews attacks on Tehran as Iran vows to avenge supreme leader’s death (CNN)

• Iran’s Supreme Leader Is Dead (NYT)

• Who could succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to lead Iran? (Al Jazeera)

• United States and Israel strike Iran (Reuters)

• Donald Trump Launches a War of “Epic Fury” on Iran (New Yorker)

• The President of War (NYT)

• How the attack on Iran could impact the global oil market and economy (CNBC)

• Insurers to cancel policies and raise prices for ships in Gulf and Strait of Hormuz (FT)

• Combat operations against Iran on land, sea, and air (BI)

• Shipping Grinds to a Halt in Strait of Hormuz (WSJ)

• How could the U.S. strikes in Iran affect the world’s oil supply? (NPR)

• How Iran attack could shake energy markets and prices (Axios)

• A ‘friendly takeover’ of Cuba (Reuters)

• Pentagon assault on Anthropic sends shock waves across Silicon Valley (WP)

• OpenAI Reaches A.I. Agreement With Defense Dept. After Anthropic Clash (NYT)

• 13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War (Silver Bulletin)

• Trump orders government to stop using Anthropic AI (Reuters)

 

Trump's War

A tyrant at home, a tyrant abroad. That sums up the authoritarian playbook guiding Trump as he launches his latest war, this one against Iran.

The U.S. has been consistently meddling in Iran’s affairs since joining with the British to overthrow democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeg in 1953.

I’m not defending Iran’s actions over the decades, which including kidnappings, assassinations, and acts of terrorism, but this is an illegal war of aggression by a man who claims to be about peace.

Back in the 50s, the Mossadeg coup was mainly about oil and the fear of communism; today it is about fear of a nuclear Iran, aligning the U.S. with Israel and an authoritarian’s reach for world power.

This bombing campaign risks world war. Those around the President counseling caution and restraint have lost. The “Masters of War” have prevailed.

HEADLINES:

• U.S. and Israel Strike Iran as Trump Calls for Overthrow of Government (NYT)

• The hypothetical nuclear attack that escalated the Pentagon’s showdown with Anthropic (WP)

• US military used laser to take down Border Protection drone, lawmakers say (AP)

• Surveillance footage obtained by the Buffalo, New York-based news nonprofit Investigative Post shows Border Patrol agents abandoning a nearly blind Burmese refugee days before he was found dead. The video undercut the government's explanation about the decision to drop him off 5 miles away from his home after he was mistakenly taken into custody. [HuffPost]

• Elon Musk Moves Against the Russians in Ukraine (Atlantic)

• Pakistan carries out air and ground strikes inside Afghanistan (Reuters)

• Netflix walks away from Warner Bros deal, clearing the path for Paramount (AP)

• What it’s like to watch a dictatorship strangle your home country (WP)

• Regime Change in Cuba Appeals to Trump but Carries Risks (NYT)

• Is China flexing its intelligence muscle by tracking US military moves near Iran? (SCMP)

• A new poll shows just how quickly Israel has lost America’s sympathy (Vox)

• Jack Dorsey says he’s cutting nearly half of his staff — 4,000 jobs (BI)

• Pentagon moves to build AI tools for China cyber operations (FT)

• The Right-Wing Nonprofit Serving A.I. Slop for America’s Birthday (New Yorker)

• Trump Orders Government to Stop Using Anthropic After Pentagon Standoff (NYT)

• Taylor Swift Pays Off Bride Who Booked Maid Of Honor She Wanted (Onion)

First Amendment Trembles

Pretty much the only viable national news channel we have left in the U.S. is CNN. The news Thursday that its new corporate owner will be Trump’s crony David Ellison is potentially a death blow for our democracy.

Trump hates CNN, a fact he has made clear repeatedly.

The massive financial takeover putting Ellison in charge isn’t official yet. There are regulatory hurdles, especially in Europe that need to be surmounted. 

And a rival bidder, Netflix, could still revive its interest.

But for now, the future of a viable CNN would seem to be hanging by a thread.

HEADLINES:

• Trump, seeking executive power over elections, is urged to declare emergency (WP)

• Trump’s Push for Election Power Raises Fears He Will ‘Subvert’ Midterms (NYT)

• Russia says Cuba situation is escalating after deadly incident with U.S.-tagged speedboat (CNBC)

• Netflix Backs Out of Bid for Warner Bros., Paving Way for an Ellison Takeover (NYT)

• US-Iran nuclear talks live: ‘Practical’ proposals discussed, Tehran says (Al Jazeera)

• Iran says agreement with US ‘within reach’ as nuclear talks begin in Geneva – Middle East live (Guardian)

• What Americans think about Trump’s judgment on military force as Iran talks resume (AP)

• What the Pentagon Fears in Iran (Atlantic)

• ICE struggles to vet recruits amid US immigration enforcement push (Reuters)

• Trump Just Clarified a Major Legal Question (Politico Mag)

• Pay Attention to What Trump Didn’t Say (Bulwark)

• Donald Trump’s unworthy state of the union (Economist)

• Judge rejects request to block Trump White House from building its $400 million ballroom project (AP)

• Hillary Clinton testifies she never met Epstein, accuses GOP of “cover-up” (Axios)

• ‘Incoherent’: Hegseth’s Anthropic ultimatum confounds AI policymakers (Politico)

• The race to catch Claude (Axios)

• Kash Patel Faces Backlash After Partying With Nancy Guthrie’s Captors (Onion)

Memory Consensus

Most of the time, I’m the oldest one in the room, so when it comes to memories, mine reach back the furthest. So except when I hang out with my sisters, who can remember things that I don’t, or a few very old friends, the past is up to me.

It is also nice to be just a character in the memory of others as opposed to the being an aged family patrician and the sole custodian of the distant past.

I was almost 30 when my first child was born, and almost 60 when my first grandchild was born. That’s a lot of rings in the tree for me to try and recall when my descendants ask me specific questions.

Besides, the way I tell a tale is my way, not necessarily with any higher quotient of accuracy than anyone else who was there at the time — yet most of the time I’m the only one around. And of course, the more distant in the past an event occurred, the more our individual versions are likely to diverge, which brings me to the phenomenon of memory consensus.

Within families, communities, countries, cultures — even on a species level — we ultimately tend to reach some sort of consensus about the past, although historians, ideologues, contrarians and poets will continue to debate

And as much as I enjoy telling my descendants stories about my youth, I’m acutely aware that for a more well-rounded narrative, other sources ought to be interviewed. My version is only that — mine.

So as the saying goes, there’s your version, my version and the truth — and none of us is lying.

(This is a rewrite of an essay from March 2022.)

HEADLINES:

• Mexico Is Caught Between Trump and the Cartels (NYT)

• What El Mencho’s death means for Mexico’s cartels (Al Jazeera)

• Cuban troops kill 4 in confrontation with Florida speedboat (Politico)

• Epstein Files Are Missing Records About Woman Who Made Claim Against Trump (NYT)

• The Gorsuch Tariffs Concurrence Is a Warning (Atlantic)

• F.B.I. Raids Los Angeles Schools Chief’s Home and District Headquarters (NYT)

• Supreme Court rules against private prison firm facing forced-work suit from immigration detainees (AP)

• ICE Took Their Papers—and Won’t Give Them Back (Mother Jones)

• The World Waited on Edge for Trump’s Thinking on Iran. It’s Still Waiting. (NYT)

• Iran accuses Trump of ‘big lies’ ahead of Geneva talks in face of major US military deployment (AP)

• The CIA urges Iranians to reach out as informants in rare move (CNBC)

• The Deaths Doctors Never Thought They’d See in the U.S. (Atlantic)

• A bipartisan majority of Americans believe vaccines are safe and that children should receive them to attend school, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll (Reuters)

• Trump dismisses affordability concerns in State of the Union (Axios)

• Hegseth threatens to force Anthropic to share its AI technology in the name of national security (WP)

• Trump Delivers State Of The Union Death Rattle (Onion) 

Morning Sickness

Not to ruin your morning but here are some of what the Post chose as “highlights” from Trump’s two-hour rant last night. 

The Times summed it up with this headline: “‘His Showman’s Energy Is Flagging.’”

The Trump Show is old, tired and yet so very dangerous. 

Here is a summary of his rambling speech.

The facts are simple. True is an autocrat. He also is the President. The only practical way to curb his excesses is for the Democrats to win back control of at least one, but ideally both, houses of Congress this fall.

If that does not come to pass, I shudder to think of the consequences.

There is good news potentially on the unlikeliest of horizons. Nate Silver is out with this: Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race?.

When it comes to my opinions about all of this, I will always choose hope over despair.

HEADLINES:

• 6 Takeaways From Trump’s State of the Union (NYT)

• Trump hits out at reports that top general flagged risks of attacking Iran (Al Jazeera)

• Why Iran Will Escalate (Foreign Affairs)

• A Careful GOP Midterm Message Delivered by Everyone but Trump (Atlantic)

• Could Republicans blow the Texas Senate race? (Silver Bulletin)

• Measles is back. Nine other vaccine-preventable diseases may be next. (WP)

• ‘We got hooked’: arrests on US army base spark fear of military coordination with ICE (Guardian)

• House Rejects Air Safety Bill After Pentagon Reverses Position (NYT)

• US women’s hockey team declines invitation from Trump to attend State of Union address (AP)

• Savannah Guthrie offers $1 million reward for missing mother Nancy Guthrie (CNBC)

• The Predawn Ambush in a Sleepy Mountain Town That Brought Down a Drug Kingpin (WSJ)

• More than a dozen senior European officials were in the Ukrainian capital on Tuesday in a show of support on the fourth anniversary of Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine — a grim milestone in a war that has killed tens of thousands of people and put European leaders on edge about the scale of Moscow's ambitions on the continent. [AP]

• The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored (NYT)

• The Little Magazine That Defied American Censorship (TNR)

• An AI Thought Experiment on Substack Is Sending the Stock Market Spiraling (Gizmodo)

• What smart people in economics and business are saying about a viral report warning of an AI-driven recession and stock crash (Business Insider)

• The bot population bomb (Axios)

• Man Proud Of Hair On Ground After Haircut (Onion)