Oatmeal

In one of the hospitals or rehabilitation centers that housed me some years back, I asked one of the nurses why in such places they always seem to serve the patients oatmeal for breakfast.

“It’s warm, cheap, easy and sticks to your ribs,” she answered in a tone that told me she’d been asked that question before — a lot.

This morning, I made myself a bowl of oatmeal for breakfast. It was warm, cheap, and easy and I’ve heard that it sticks to the ribs. To make it slightly more special, I added some raisins.

***

The following excerpts are from a goodbye column I wrote when I left my position at Stanford almost 20 years ago:

Our society is plagued by alienation, disorientation, and isolation. It is a world of vast material wealth for the few but disrupted families and communities for the many, and an even vaster spiritual deprivation for all. 

It also is a world where it is often hard as individuals to find our way to form the lasting bonds based on shared values that we so deeply need, as well as any kind of lasting sense of collective commitment to the hard work that needs to be done on many fronts to make things better for all those who share this troubled planet with us.

I've known these things for many years, but in recent times I've often seemed to forget how important locating and nurturing a sense of hope really is for who I am and what I do in the world.

I don't mean to sound naïve here. It's not that finding hope in and of itself is an easy thing to do, particularly when we are dealing with the real difficulties life hands us. If there is a clue to be offered in this regard, however, it is that finding ways to really connect with others that eventually makes the difference. 

Election Day Diary

My main advice for anyone stressed out about the election today is to go outside, and weather permitting, take a walk. Call a friend. Meet up with somebody. Get a latte. Have sushi for lunch. Treat yourself to a chocolate milkshake. Smile at a stranger. Put out your flag.

Forget about the media until later in the day — we journalists will be driving ourselves crazy pouring over scraps of data. There is no good reason for you to watch television coverage or log on to election sites until about an hour before the first polls close on the east coast. That’s when the pre-election rumors will peak, which might be amusing, at least to the political junkies out there.

But when you do tune in, get ready for a long night.

As to how the polls moved on the eve of the election, there was some very good news for Democrats. According to 538, for the first time in over two weeks, Harris erased Trump’s lead in the Pennsylvania to move ahead by a slender 0.2 point margin. This represents about 14,000 votes, which is a hairs-breadth in a state where some 7 million are expected to vote. But it also comes as other polls indicate that independent voters in the state are breaking in Harris’s favor.

Furthermore, 538 now has Harris up by a full point in the other two Blue Wall states, Michigan and Wisconsin. I can therefore project Harris victory margins of 57,000 and 34,000 votes in those two, respectively.

If these projections come true, Harris will almost certainly be the next president. 

Trump leads in the other five battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Iowa, but his lead in Nevada is only 0.3 points or roughly 4,000 votes out of ~1.5 million cast.

To quote the experts: “According to 538’s final presidential forecast, Vice President Kamala Harris has a 50-in-100 chance of winning the Electoral College after all votes are counted (which could take a few days). We give former President Donald Trump a 49-in-100 chance to win.* Practically speaking, those odds are virtually indistinguishable — about the same as flipping a coin and getting heads versus tails.’

Of course, all of these polling numbers are within the margin of error, so it just appears to be excruciatingly close right up to and beyond the last moment.

So, for my part, this concludes my many, many posts leading up to the election. I’ve tried my best to provide honest, accurate coverage. But now all I can say is whatever happens, happens. So that, as we say in show business, is a wrap … 

… except to say that this past weekend, we got around to celebrating two family birthdays, for Oliver (13) and Bettina (6). When I was wrapping Bettinas present, my latest dose of Carbidopa-Levadopa had not yet kicked in, so my left hand was shaking and I did a lousy job of the task at hand.

Later, when I gave my youngest granddaughter her present, I apologized for how badly wrapped it was.

“That’s okay, Grandpa,” she said. “You’re my favorite wrapper.”

At least I think that’s what she said. Maybe it was “You’re my favorite rapper.”

In any event, that is a wrap.

HEADLINES:

• How To Tell Who's On Track To Win On Election Night (538)

• Harris and Trump Focus on Pennsylvania, the Biggest Electoral Prize, in Final Push (NYT)

• If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he’ll have no one to blame but himself (WP)

• America on edge with both candidates scrambling to get supporters to the polls. (Reuters)

• US election 2024 live updates: Trump launches insults at final rally as Harris ends campaign promising to ‘get to work’ (Guardian)

• The Americans Prepping for a Second Civil War (New Yorker)

• Four years after ‘Stop the Steal,’ an organized army emerges online (WP)

• Harris and Trump will both make a last-day push before Election Day (AP)

• Donald Trump's betting lead over Kamala Harris nearly collapses in final week of race (USA Today)

• The determination of so many women to elect Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump absolutely could prove decisive. If that happens, it would be one of the more ironic twists in modern political history for this reason. [HuffPost]

• Donald Trump’s retro economic plan could be a disaster (WP)

• Musk PAC tells Philadelphia judge the $1 million sweepstakes winners are not chosen by chance (AP)

• This Overlooked Michigan County Gets the Political Spotlight Every 4 Years (NYT)

• 2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages (Guardian)

• Two historic Philadelphia churches offer lessons for an America divided today and in its infancy (AP)

• Trump Media Outsourced Jobs to Mexico Even as Trump Pushes “America First” (ProPublica)

• Professor who has correctly predicted 9 of last 10 elections stands by Harris pick (CNN)

• Four Swing States Shifted Toward Kamala Harris in Final Week: Nate Silver (Newsweek)

• Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire in Swing States, Times/Siena Polls Find (NYT)

• GOP’s closing election message on health baffles strategists, worries experts (WP)

• New Indiana Law Requires Women Voters To Show Husband’s ID (The Onion)

 

Monday Diary -- Trump is 'okay' with shooting journalists

There’s one day left. For those looking for last-minute indicators leading into tomorrow’s election, there are several of note:

1. Polls indicate that independent voters in Pennsylvania may be breaking for Harris. This is the state most likely to tip the balance one way or the other.

2. The most surprising poll of all shows Harris leading in Iowa; this may indicate an unexpected shift inside the Midwestern states.

3. Trump leads among men but the growing gender gap favors Harris because women voters outnumber male voters and are more likely to vote than men.

4. Democrats appear to have a very large advantage in the ground game, i.e., knocking on doors, making phone calls and other ‘get out the vote’ tactics.

All of these factors favor Harris, but the latest polls remain deadlocked in all eight battleground states, which now include Iowa.

In the closing days, Harris is staying focused in her message of hope and optimism, whereas Trump spews darkness and continues to fly off the rails. Sunday Trump delivered another of his coded messages to his supporters that it would be okay with him if they would shoot journalists.

Sometimes I can’t really believe this is happening in our country but it is. These are the actions of an authoritarian trying to incite violence and intimidate the press. Tomorrow will be my last entry in this ‘diary” series leading up to the election. 

Earlier diary entries:

1. Tuesday Diary -- “One Week Before 'What Happened' Happens” — the romantic intrigue of this moment of witnessing history together.

2. Wednesday Diary -- “How Math Determines the Fate of Democracy” — the numerical basis behind mass fascism.

3. Thursday Diary: “Who is that Man in the Garbage Truck?” — how not to go insane when a train crash is happening before our very eyes.

4. Friday Diary: “Healthy Societies Embrace Choices” — focusing on uplifting activities rather than fretting that this may be our last good week for a long, long time.

5. Saturday Diary -- “Love Under the Mosquito Netting” — because sometimes love prevails over hate.

6. Sunday Diary — “It’s Come to This” — a day trying to avoid the election comes to naught.

HEADLINES:

• Trump and Harris crisscross campaign trail days out from Election Day (NPR)

• Trump says he doesn’t ‘mind’ if someone has to ‘shoot through’ the media (Politico)

• Panic buttons, drones, snipers among plans to guard a high-risk election (WP)

• Trump’s Final Days on the Campaign Trail (New Yorker)

• Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire in Swing States, Times/Siena Polls Find (NYT)

• Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In 5 New Surveys—As Others Show A Near-Tie (Forbes)

• In surprise, Harris has slight lead over Trump in Iowa poll (WP)

• US election 2024 live: Latest polls tight as Trump, Harris hit swing states (Al Jazeera)

• It’s a fight to the finish in races that will determine control of Congress (AP)

• Trump, Preparing to Challenge the Results, Puts His 2020 Playbook Into Action (NYT)

• Conservative group’s ‘watch list’ targets federal employees for firing (WP)

• More than 75M Americans vote early as Harris, Trump make final push in key swing states (AA)

• Early voting turnout high as almost 47% of 2020 electorate cast ballots (WP)

• ‘It’s not just shameful. It is humiliating’: four celebrated authors on their hopes and fears before the 2024 US election (Guardian)

• How Will White Women Vote? It’s a Question With a Fraught History. (NYT Mag)

• Trump will push to get fluoride out of drinking water, RFK Jr. says (WP)

• U.S. Inspires World With Attempt At Democratic Election (The Onion)

 

Sunday Diary -- It's Come to This

Yesterday there were three days left; today two. With so little time until the election, and given my issues with blood pressure, I thought a good plan for Saturday would be to avoid politics altogether. So I made a plan involving some combination of bingeing on a political docudrama (good idea) and watching college football (bad idea) and an NBA game (good idea) until it was time to see how SNL would end my day.

As it turned out, SNL was the best idea. 

But before getting to that, the reason I tried to fill up my day with non-election stuff was to prevent myself from going down an emotional rabbit hole by taking a peek at the polls to see how they were trending. 

I fear that I’ve turned into some version of a gambling addict who should be forcibly restrained from placing his next bet. But no one’s going to do that, so I went there and here’s what the polls said: According to 538, Harris is leading Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin and Trump is leading Harris in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. The candidates are tied in Nevada and Pennsylvania. 

So it’s a draw. Great. That does wonders for the nerves. 

But wait, what’s this. A major poll now indicates that Iowa may be in play with its 6 electoral votes, when everyone assumed it would automatically go to Trump. Nobody saw that one coming.

None of this changes the fundamental statistical truth that whichever candidate wins the Keystone State is going to win the election — barring a last-minute meltdown or natural disaster.

Finally, my Saturday almost without politics came almost to its end, my bedtime. But first, there would be SNL. Its surprise guest? Kamala Harris. She talked to herself and that actually was funny.

Earlier diary entries:

1. Tuesday Diary -- “One Week Before 'What Happened' Happens” — the romantic intrigue of this moment of witnessing history together.

2. Wednesday Diary -- “How Math Determines the Fate of Democracy” — the numerical basis behind mass fascism.

3. Thursday Diary: “Who is that Man in the Garbage Truck?” — how not to go insane when a train crash is happening before our very eyes.

4. Friday Diary: “Healthy Societies Embrace Choices” — focusing on uplifting activities rather than fretting that this may be our last good week for a long, long time.

5. Saturday Diary -- “Love Under the Mosquito Netting” — because sometimes love prevails over hate.

HEADLINES:

• US election: 2 days left – What polls say, what Harris and Trump are up to (Al Jazeera)

• A chaotic presidential transition could embolden U.S. adversaries (WP)

• Trump Needs Help (Atlantic)

• The Election Season That Fell Out of a Coconut Tree (New Yorker)

• Trump’s Microphone Trouble in Milwaukee Leaves Him ‘Seething’ (NYT)

• Trump appears to emulate ‘sex act’ on microphone after he melts down over technical difficulties (Independent)

• Russian disinformation videos push lies on voter fraud and immigrants (WP)

• Candidates try to divine trends as nearly 70m Americans have cast early votes (Guardian)

• Supreme Court girds for rush of election-related litigation (Reuters)

• Kamala Harris: This morning routine helps me work 15 hours a day—‘no matter how little sleep I get’ (CNBC)

• Harris And Trump’s Biggest Celebrity Endorsements: Jennifer Lopez Says ‘Every Latino In This Country’ Offended By Puerto Rico Joke (Forbes)

• Efforts to combat disinformation in retreat as voters head to the polls (WP)

• New Poll Shows Trump Running Into Blue Wall (The Bulwark)

• Suspicious voter registration forms in Pennsylvania linked to Arizona city councilman’s company (PC-S)

• Storms and Strikes Take a Toll on Pre-election Jobs Report (NYT)

• New Report Confirms You Are Most Interesting, Most Important Individual On Earth (The Onion)