Saturday, October 19, 2024

The Michigan Mafia

This essay dates from 2007.

You have to go back to 1978 to understand the story of the Michigan Mafia. A group of us Midwestern migrants started to feel comfortable enough in our adopted Bay Area home to bring a bit of our culture into the local scene. Some journalist colleagues and I issued a challenge to the other media institutions in San Francisco to play us in softball.

Early responders included the San Francisco Chronicle, the San Francisco Examiner, Mother Jones magazine, Media Alliance, and a number of other local media outlets. In the very first game of what eventually became known as the Bay Area Media Softball League (BAMSL) our team, the Michigan Mafia, beat Media Alliance, 3-2.

Over the next 29 years, many teams came and went, partially due to the ever-changing media landscape here. Wired had a team. Some of the TV stations did also. KQED had a team. 

The great Joe Dimaggio threw out the first pitch in a championship game.

Given my own peripatetic career, I often found myself having to play against my employer's team, because I never betrayed the Michigan Mafia. We were always a competitive team, but never a champion. The closest we came was in 1994, when we advanced to the league championship game, only to lose by a wide margin. My only consolation was that I went 3 for 3 in the game.

Also, over the decades, our cumulative won-loss record was just south of .500.

But, much more than our winning percentage, what held the Mafia together was a shared sense of community. Relatively few of the long-term members were media people, ultimately, given the changes in our industry. We ended up as a collection of lawyers, legal investigators, and random others, with just a few aging journalists sprinkled into the mix. Most of us were indeed from Michigan, at least loosely.

Tonight, our venerable coach, Joel Kirshenbaum, announced his retirement, which signals the end of the Michigan Mafia.

"Only the mediocre are always at their best." That was our motto. Some years, however, we came tantalizingly close to being better than mediocre. We played some great games, and had some great parties as well.

Although I feel sad tonight, very sad, at the passing of one of my main social institutions over the years here in San Francisco, I feel like toasting my many colleagues, hundreds of them, who helped make the Mafia if not the best team, certainly the most intriguing team of our era.

As for me, I played in every year during our 29-year run. But last year, in limited at bats, I did not get a single hit. You have to know when it is time to step down, and even if the Mafia had gone forward, I was figuring I should retire. I never did make it to my goal of a career batting average of .600, but I came quite close.

On the other hand, my fielding was suspect, as was my base running, and my (ugh) relief pitching. No, I never was a pretty player, but like my teammates, I always gave it my all.

Good-bye, Michigan Mafia. R.I.P.

HEADLINES: 

 

Friday, October 18, 2024

The Math: It's Even


As has been my habit at the end of each week throughout this election season, I’ve done the math based on the latest polls numbers. The results continue to be frustrating for anyone hoping to gain clarity about the likely outcome on Election Day.

But before getting to that, let’s review the candidates’ major initiatives for the week. Harris sat for all sorts of in-depth interviews, apparently hoping to quiet critics saying she has remained too aloof from the press.

She seemed to handle them reasonably well, but that most likely is neither here nor there when it comes to impacts on the voting electorate. Her appearances did, however, boost the ratings for the shows involved.

Meanwhile Trump seemed to be plunging further into a strange, demented state by turning his interview with pet-murderer Kristi Noem before a friendly audience into an awkward impromptu dance party. I’m going to have to wait for SNL’s version before commenting further on that.

While all that was happening, those of us keeping a close watch on the polls saw that the race for president continues to get ever closer, which borders on the unimaginable. As of this morning, 538 gives Harris a 52% chance of winning, with Trump at 48%.

There are only seven states really in play; all of the others are lopsided for one candidate or the other. There was a recent poll in Iowa showing Harris within 4 points of Trump there, but that has not been corroborated by any others.

Harris leads nationally by 2.4 percentage points, which translates into 3.9 million votes.

Meanwhile, over the past week, the numbers have continued to inch slightly in Trump’s favor. Using the latest poll averages from 538, I calculate the projected winning vote margins in the seven battlegrounds to now be as follows:

Arizona Trump +56,384 (+1.6%)

Georgia Trump +83,200 (+1.6%)

Michigan Harris +51,849 (+0.9%)

Nevada Harris +11,688 (+0.8%)

N. Carolina Trump +34,476 (+0.6%)

Pennsylvania Harris +43,290 (+0.6%)

Wisconsin. Harris +20,580 (+0.6%)

As of this morning, 538 projects that Harris will prevail in electoral votes, 273-265. 

So you might as well flip a coin. Then again, the main new imponderable is the record early voting turnout in Georgia, where voters have been lining up to cast early votes. Who will that will favor is anyone’s guess — mine is Harris., because I think black and women voters show signs of being highly motivated this cycle.

(Note on methodology: I took the vote totals in each state in 2020, increased them by four percent to account for population growth and then used 538’s latest poll averages to calculate the number of likely vote totals and margins in each state.)

HEADLINES: 

 

Thursday, October 17, 2024

Truth vs. Conspiracy

Today’s recommended reading: “Journalists can’t win the fight against fake news without citizens’ help.” (The Hill)

The following is an edited version of an essay I’ve published previously.

***

Forty-some years ago, when we were writing our textbook, Raising Hell: How the Center for Investigative Reporting Gets the Story, my colleague Dan Noyes and I described what we called our the hypothesis-driven method of journalism.

It's a tricky business, this hypothesis methodology. You've got to have some basic evidence that indicates some sort of pattern plus a suspicion, an instinct, a guess about what you'll find as you keep searching.

But a hypothesis is not the same as a conspiracy theory, and you don’t publish your hypothesis. You use it, just like a scientist would, to investigate where the truth lies. We understand that this may frustrate true believers who wish reporters would just substantiate their theories. 

An example historically is the JFK assassination on November 22, 1963. Perhaps no other event inspired more complex yet largely unfounded theories.

How could something like this have happened without a conspiracy? As years passed, even though no credible evidence emerged to substantiate any of the wilder theories, certain individuals continued to stoke the conspiracy fires and keep them burning.

Oliver Stone exploited this more skillfully than most, imagining how the conspiracy might have unfolded in his movie, “JFK”, which has shaped subsequent generations' views about the event. That he patched in real footage, including the Zapruder footage that is the only known visual evidence of the shooting, made his docudrama feel more realistic than it actually was.

As a result, if you ask people, say, in their 50s or younger today about the assassination, they probably believe we all witnessed it on television as it happened. But that is incorrect: Nobody saw it on TV., because there was no live coverage of Kennedy riding in his motorcade at all. In fact we never saw any video evidence until a full decade later, when the Zapruder film of Kennedy's head exploding was finally declassified and released to the public.

All of this only complicated the effort of journalists like me who actually tried to investigate the assassination. Maintaining our commitment to strictly stick to the facts is not as sexy as publishing fantasies based on conjecture. But all we can do is stay alert and adjust our hypothesis in light of any new evidence as it emerges. We can't afford to get wedded to any one hypothesis until and unless the preponderance of evidence becomes obvious.

Otherwise all you end up with are conspiracy theories.

To this day, whether someone else in addition to Lee Harvey Oswald was behind the Kennedy murder remains unproven. And that is the truth.

HEADLINES:

 

Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Coming Full Circle

Early voting opened in Georgia Tuesday to long lines and record numbers. This may bode well for participation levels in this year’s critical election. As discussed yesterday, the polls indicate the race is so tight in battleground states like Georgia that a large turnout for either side could prove decisive.

As the only boy growing up in a family with three sisters, I always had my own room. It must have been pretty empty at first but it filled up over the years. 

When I left home for college, my parents gave away or threw away most of my stuff and boxed up the rest. During four years in Ann Arbor, I acquired some new books and records and copies of my earliest newspaper articles.

Then I left for the Peace Corps in Afghanistan. Again my college stuff was boxed up and ended up back with my parents.

Almost everything I acquired during two years overseas stayed there when I returned to the states; I gave it to people in the village where we lived.

The few objects from Afghanistan that came back with me were lost when my Chevy van was burglarized one night. But a bunch of letters I wrote the folks back home were preserved by my sisters.

Once back in the U.S., I moved cross-country to San Francisco. I brought my old boxes along for the ride. Then time slowed down. In my 20s and 30s I acquired much more stuff.

Time passed. I left almost all of that stuff behind when I got divorced in my 40s. But those old boxes stuck with me.

Time slowed down again, and I acquired more stuff in my second marriage during the rest of my 40s and 50s.

Time passed. I left almost all of that stuff behind when my second divorce happened, though those old boxes again stuck with me. 

Then, for the rest of my 50s and 60s and into my early 70s I acquired yet more stuff to fill up the flat where I lived for 17 years in the Mission.

Then, when I got very ill, had to retire and vacate that flat in 2020, virtually all of my possessions were placed at the curb, donated or recycled. Pretty much the only things left were — you guessed it — those old boxes.

Along the way over all those years I purchased thousands of items including 8 or 9 cars, 6 houses, a boat, bikes, some tents, one basketball backboard, a hammock, a BBQ grill, a picnic table, several file cabinets, many computers, cameras, sound systems, TVs, coffee makers, three-piece suits, fancy ties and so on, but not one of those possessions have stuck to me over the long term.

Now it’s pretty much down to just my boxes and me. We share a room. When every other distraction deserts me, I rummage through them. They contain my writings — published and unpublished — as well as letters, pictures, cards, reports, art, some old coins, stamps, baseball cards, rings, bottles and a few other random knick-knacks.

Plus a whole lifetime of memories, many of them bittersweet reminders of how much one gains and loses during a long life. Material possessions are the least of it, of course.

So I came into the world with a clean slate and it looks like I’ll be going out in damn near the same fashion. Then again, come to think of it, there are those roughly 5 million published words I’ll be leaving behind.

No doubt one of my last thoughts will be: “Should I place that comma here, there, or…”

HEADLINES:

  • Local board members in Georgia can't refuse to certify election results, judge rules (NPR)

  • Record number of early votes cast in Georgia as election gets underway in battleground state (CNN)

  • Trump Brags About His Math Skills and Economic Plans. Experts Say Both Are Shaky. (NYT)

  • Trump’s economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say (AP)

  • Harris defends ‘scripted’ style and agrees Trump is ‘about fascism’ in wide-ranging interview with Charlamagne tha God (CNN)

  • Harris campaign turns Trump's favorite weapon against him (Axios)

  • Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up (The Conversation)

  • The Evangelicals Calling for ‘Spiritual Warfare’ to Elect Trump (WSJ)

  • Anne Hathaway shares presidential endorsement choice of Harris weeks before 2024 election (Independent)

  • Trump's bizarre music session reignites questions about his mental acuity (NBC)

  • AP VoteCast: How Americans voted in 2020, and what it could mean for 2024 (AP)

  • Meteorologists Face Harassment and Death Threats Amid Hurricane Disinformation (NYT)

  • Israeli strikes kill 40 Palestinians in Gaza (Reuters)

  • US suggests military aid to Israel is at risk in letter demanding more aid for Gaza (CNN)

  • Israeli soldiers and Palestinian former detainees say Israeli troops have regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks, including inside Hamas tunnels. (NYT)

  • Dogs Are Entering a New Wave of Domestication (Atlantic)

  • ‘Stunning’ hidden tomb found at Petra site featured in ‘Indiana Jones’ (WP)

  • NYT sends AI startup Perplexity 'cease and desist' notice over content use (Reuters)

  • The OpenAI Talent Exodus Gives Rivals an Opening (Wired)

  • Mayor Explains Why He Changed The Name Of His City To Salami Town (The Onion)

Tuesday, October 15, 2024

Turning Out

With three weeks left until the election, it’s become increasingly obvious that turnout will probably determine the outcome. In 2020, 66 percent or roughly two-thirds of those eligible actually voted, and unless something unexpected happens, we can anticipate a similar level of participation this time.

The unknowns that could affect turnout include the weather, voter intimidation, violence, illness, and renewed efforts in some states to suppress turnout. These play a role in the “margin of error” in all polls — nobody can with precise accuracy predict what the turnout will be.

And when it comes to polls, they are as unreliable as bobbers bouncing around in the waves on a windy day. They were memorably wrong in 2016, when pollsters badly underestimated the number of first-time voters who turned out for Trump; and in 2022, when pollsters predicting a “red wave” in the midterm elections badly underestimated the effect of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in helping Democrats outperform Republicans across the country.

By making abortion rights a keystone of the Harris campaign, Democrats are betting that this time a 2022-type surge will overwhelm a 2016-type surge. But it’s also likely that both of those factors are already baked into the electorate, as enough time has passed that both have been assimilated into voter decisions to a great extent.

Republican fears of a repeat of 2022 explain why Trump has publicly equivocated on his position on abortion, whereas Project 2025 makes it clear that he will push for a nationwide ban if elected. That Trump is an unfettered liar is something only half of the electorate cares about.

Meanwhile, as the election approaches, it is worth pondering how far our system has strayed from a direct democracy of one person, one vote. The U.S. is the only country using the outdated concept of an Electoral College to select its President. This year, as the Mercury-News reported, “Texas has one electoral vote for every 762,583 residents; Florida has one for every 753,691 residents; and California has one for every 721,578 residents.

“At the other end of the spectrum, Washington D.C. has one electoral vote for every 223,934 residents; Vermont has one for every 215,821 residents; and Wyoming has one for every 194,686 residents.”

HEADLINES:

  • Trump's protests aside, his agenda has plenty of overlap with Project 2025 (AP)

  • Harris warns ‘unhinged’ Trump is out for total power (CNN)

  • North Korea blows up roads near South Korean border as tensions soar (Al Jazeera)

  • Hurricane recovery disrupted by threats to relief workers (BBC)

  • North Carolina authorities arrest armed man after threats against FEMA workers (WP)

  • Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up 2 Points In Latest Survey As Race Is Nearly Tied (Forbes)

  • Harris losing ground to Trump in US presidential election, polls suggest (Al Jazeera)

  • CBS News Trump-Harris poll shows one election, two worlds: How information, beliefs shape tight campaign (CBS)

  • Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Trump Plunge in Nate Silver Forecast (Newsweek)

  • How Trump may try to challenge the election results if he loses again (WP)

  • The Ground Game: Harris’s Turnout Machine vs. Trump’s Unproven Alliance (NYT)

  • Is the Constitution threatening democracy? UC Berkley law dean argues it is (SJMN)

  • Hezbollah drone attack on army base kills 4 Israeli soldiers and injures dozens (CNN)

  • Deadly Israeli strike sets tents ablaze on grounds of Gaza’s al-Aqsa hospital (WP)

  • The US will send an anti-missile system and troops to Israel. (Reuters)

  • The US is sending a missile defense system and troops to Israel to aid defense against Iran (AP)

  • The Real Story Behind ‘Saturday Night,’ the Movie About the Television Show That Changed Comedy Forever (Smithsonian)

  • ‘Where we are today in biology AI is similar to GPT in 2020’: An interview with the CEO of Africa’s biggest AI startup (TechCrunch)

  • Google's new antitrust defense is AI (Yahoo)

  • Columbus Day Protests Once Again Erupt As Nation Struggles With Its Dark, Anti-Italian Past (The Onion)

 

Monday, October 14, 2024

Language in Code

(Going back over my old work, I sometimes find pieces that I simply cannot believe I actually wrote. This is one of them, from 2006. At the time, I was working inside a low-profile tech startup founded and led by a billionaire.)

I know that most people who read this do not work in Silicon Valley, where I do. As a writer, and a teacher of writing, I am acutely aware of how off-putting insider lingo can be. Here's off the top of my head, a sample of how we talk day to day:

Scope creep
Iteration
Monetize
Page config
Style Sheets
RSS
Navigation
Interactivity
Connectivity
Load
Dev
Scrum
Server
Architecture
Surfacing
Categorization
Bandwidth
Granularity
Sprint
Epic
UI
Interface
Program
Content
Noise
Signal
Back office
Front office
Release
Keystroke
Usability
Click tracks
QA
Pipe
Colo
Toolbar
User-generated
Pixels
Optimize
Tables
Link
Post
ITS
Chip
Memory
Functionality
Feature Set
Html
File sharing
Mouse over
Flouts
Scroll down
CPC
IP
Xml
Resin
NetApp
DNS
API
Objects
Template
A build
Recency

If you have any questions, just ask. But please do not expect that I can actually answer them. Because I am a student in the Valley, not a teacher. There is a lot of meaning imbedded in this dialect, but it reveals itself only slowly, like the skins peeling off an onion.

The end result, when we get it right, is a product that you may depend on.. Few others here will say this, but the march of technology that engulfs us scares even those of us creating it. We don't know where it is headed All we can hope is that it will result in a better world, not the opposite.

HEADLINES:

 

Sunday, October 13, 2024

Never Again (On the Other Hand)

(This pathetic little essay, written 18 years ago in 2006, is personally embarrassing, but I was nursing a broken heart at the time. Be sure to read the postscript.)

Tonight, I've started accepting the likelihood that I will spend the rest of my life alone, not as half of a couple. This is a thought that not so long ago would have struck terror in my heart. But, tonight, I am feeling a bit differently about this prospect. As much as I love women, and enjoy being in intimate relationship with them, I'm also mindful of how much pain these relationships eventually can produce for everyone involved.

I really don't want to go through that much pain ever again. Plus, although most people who know me well would say I am flexible and accommodating to the women in my life, I've come to realize that is not necessarily a healthy way for me to live. It may be a positive attribute, but I also feel like being much more selfish these days.

That means I want to do things the way I want to do them. I'll bend and I'll adapt, but I also need to preserve my own way of doing things -- much like the way I write. I don't really care when people criticize me; it's amusing more than anything else. After all, nobody has to read this blog. As far as I know, it has not been assigned as compulsory reading by any professors anywhere.


So, tonight, watching baseball on TV, caressing a large stack of good books, preparing to cook up some fresh veggies and sausage for my dinner, I'm not missing anybody. Great partners all; and I'll always love all of them. But there are many fish in the sea. (Thanks, Dad.) And I am not at all sure I am ready to let someone new into my life.

Does that make sense? I've led a life of twists and turns. My days of going after someone “like a fine tooth comb” are over. If she wants to be with me, she will adapt to me as much as I will to her.

Otherwise, I can take her or leave her. It really makes no difference to me.

(Postscript: Soon after publishing this piece, I embarked in a new relationship. She said she was attracted to the way I write.)

HEADLINES: 

  • The New Apostolic Reformation is an elusive, hard-to-pin-down movement whose followers believe that Christians are called to control the government and that former President Donald Trump was chosen by God. (Reveal)

  • Harris and Trump take divergent paths in a tied race (WP)

  • Gov. Slams Donald Trump’s ‘Cognitive Decline’ After Rally Insults (Daily Beast)

  • Harris has slight lead in Pennsylvania while Trump keeps Arizona advantage, polls show (Politico)

  • Trump calls for death penalty for migrants who kill Americans (Reuters)

  • Trump amplifies falsehoods about immigrants in closing appeal (WP)

  • Trump Has Clear Edge on Handling Israel, Ukraine Wars, WSJ Poll Shows (WSJ)

  • Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

  • Even in Her Memoir, Melania Trump Remains a Mystery (New Yorker)

  • The Moment of Truth (Atlantic)

  • Trump is ‘fascist to the core,’ retired Gen. Milley says in Woodward book (WP)

  • Inside Donald Trump’s Shadow Presidency (NYT)

  • Israel orders evacuation of more southern Lebanese towns (Reuters)

  • Captured documents reveal Hamas’s broader ambition to wreak havoc on Israel (WP)

  • Israel fires at U.N. position in Lebanon (Reuters)

  • Young men are increasingly more religious. Young women are leaving the church in droves. Their motivations might not be so different. (Slate)

  • Woman attempted to kayak to Canada with bag full of protected turtles (WP)

  • Could life exist on one of Jupiter’s moons? (Economist)

  • Amazon Studios Boss Jennifer Salke Teases ‘The Idea of You’ Sequel (Variety)

  • When AI looked at biology, the result was astounding (WP)

  • The week that artificial intelligence swept the Nobel Prizes (Financial Times)

  • Nevada Asked A.I. Which Students Need Help. The Answer Caused an Outcry. (NYT)

  • Taco Bell Announces It’s Plumb Out Of Ideas For New Places To Put Beef (The Onion)

    LYRICS:

    “Islands in the Stream”

    Songwriters: Maurice Ernest Gibb / Robin Hugh Gibb / Barry Alan Gibb

    Baby, when I met you there was peace unknown
    I set out to get you with a fine tooth comb
    I was soft inside, there was somethin' going on

    You do something to me that I can't explain
    Hold me closer and I feel no pain
    Every beat of my heart
    We got somethin' goin' on

    Tender love is blind
    It requires a dedication
    All this love we feel
    Needs no conversation
    We ride it together, ah-ah
    Makin' love with each other, ah-ah

    Islands in the stream
    That is what we are
    No one in-between
    How can we be wrong?
    Sail away with me to another world
    And we rely on each other, ah-ah
    From one lover to another, ah-ah

    I can't live without you if the love was gone
    Everything is nothin' if you've got no one
    And you did walk in tonight
    Slowly losing sight of the real thing

    But that won't happen to us, and we got no doubt
    Too deep in love and we got no way out
    And the message is clear
    This could be the year for the real thing

    No more will you cry
    Baby, I will hurt you never
    We start and end as one, in love forever
    We can ride it together, ah-ah
    Makin' love with each other, ah-ah

    Islands in the stream
    That is what we are
    No one in-between
    How can we be wrong?
    Sail away with me to another world
    And we rely on each other, ah-ah
    From one lover to another, ah-ah

    Sail away
    Oh, come sail away with me