Saturday, November 07, 2020

America Celebrates



* "You're Fired!" (Drudge Report)

How to build a government: Transition challenges await Biden (AP)

Rolling back Trump's rollbacks: Biden seen reversing climate deregulation (Reuters)

Trump refuses to accept election results, says it’s ‘far from over’ (CNBC)

Investors likely relieved about networks calling U.S. presidential election for Biden (Reuters)

With banging pots and fireworks, celebrations erupt over Biden election win (Reuters)

Many people gathered near White House (NHK)

* In major U.S. cities, spontaneous celebrations erupt on the streets. (NYT)

Biden And Harris Supporters Celebrate In D.C.'s Black Lives Matter Plaza --Thousands of people have begun celebrating the news of Joe Biden's presidential win near the White House at Black Lives Matter Plaza. (NPR)

Cheers Erupt on N.Y.C. Streets After Biden’s Victory Is Declared (NYT)

As soon as the news buzzed on their phones, Americans gathered spontaneously on street corners and front lawns — honking their horns, banging pots and pans, starting impromptu dance parties — as an agonizingly vitriolic election and exhausting four-day wait for results came to an end Saturday morning.  (AP)

'No more bullying': fresh start to U.S.-Mexico relations eyed under Biden (Reuters)

Treasury Secretary Warren? Progressives Line Up to Press Their Agenda on Biden (NYT)

* TRUMP NEVER WANTED TO BE PRESIDENT FOR ALL AMERICANS -- From the moment he took office Trump showed little interest in healing the country. He actively stoked the flames of racial hatred and exploited the nation’s divisions for political gain, encouraging the rise of fringe elements and conspiracy theories that have proliferated through a Republican Party whose soul has changed in his image. [HuffPost]

For Trump voters, shock, disappointment and disbelief. (NYT)

Americans lost 138 million hours of sleep on election night, finds health-tracking device (The Print) [I'm one of them] -- DW

SCARIEST DAYS OF TRUMP PRESIDENCY COULD BE AHEAD He may be a lame duck, but he will have the immense powers of a president and commander in chief — and nothing to lose. [HuffPost]

Covid-19 Live Updates: Biden Team Readies Plan to Fight the Virus, Now Surging at Record Levels (NYT)


The Election is Still Over

 

Way back in the first seasons of SNL, Chevy Chase perfected the line that "Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead," mocking the weeks-long media reports in 1975 of the impending death of Spain's leader.

We can only imagine, until tonight, what the current SNL writers are preparing about the never-ending suspense of who won this year's presidential election.

Meanwhile, the math is clear, There are four states of consequence yet to be called -- PA, GA, AZ and NV -- to go postal on you.

Biden is winning all four. Are importantly, his margin of victory in three of the four (all except AZ) is increasing each time a new load of ballots is counted. In most places, Biden is winning 60, 70, 80 percent of the remaining ballots, which means is victory margin will be greater than it is now.

In AZ, the President is still closing the gap, but mathematically not by a high enough percentage to win the state.

Thus Biden will end up with about 306 electoral votes and the White House will be his.

That's the reality. Other news follows:

With No Evidence of Fraud, Trump Fails to Make Headway on Legal Cases -- The president appeared to have little path through the courts to shift the outcome of the election, leaving him reliant on long shots like recounts or pressure on state legislatures. (NYT)

Advisers urge Trump to prepare for defeat — but maybe without conceding (WashPo)

The Electoral College Is Close. The Popular Vote Isn’t. -- The prolonged uncertainty in spite of the clear preference of the public has intensified some Americans’ anger at a system in which a minority of people can claim a majority of power. (NYT)

After testing positive for coronavirus, White House chief of staff told others not to disclose his condition (WashPo)

Biden’s Team Steps Up Transition Plans, Mapping Out a White House -- With Joe Biden leading in several important battleground states, his advisers and allies have moved rapidly to discuss hiring in critical roles, especially those overseeing the coronavirus response. (NYT)

Republicans are amplifying the president’s lies. This has never been more dangerous. (WashPo)

Senate Majority in Balance as Perdue Re-election Race Goes to Runoff in Georgia -- Mr. Perdue, a first-term Republican, narrowly failed to clear 50 percent of the vote, sending the race to a January runoff that, along with another runoff contest, will probably determine which party controls the Senate. (NYT)

Spanish-language misinformation dogged Democrats in U.S. election (Reuters)

U.S. sets another daily record for coronavirus cases as some states struggle (WashPo)

Europe’s Hospital Crunch Grows More Dire, Surpassing Spring Peak -- More than twice as many people in Europe are hospitalized with Covid-19 as in the United States, adjusted for population. (NYT)

U.S. Covid-19 cases are going to “explode” in the coming weeks, former FDA commissioner says (CNN)

***

This is dedicated to the one I love
While I'm far away from you my baby
I know it's hard for you my baby
Because it's hard for me my baby
And the darkest hour is just before dawn

Each night before you go to bed my baby
Whisper a little prayer for me my baby
And tell all the stars above
This is dedicated to the one I love

Life can never be exactly like we want it to be
I can be satisfied just knowing that you love me
There's one thing I want you to do especially for me
And it's something that everybody needs

Each night before you go to bed my baby
Whisper a little prayer for me my baby
And tell all the stars above
This is dedicated to the one I love

-- The Shirelles


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Friday, November 06, 2020

As Good As It Gets


As we all wait together for the resolution of this presidential election, the situation is provoking conversations between people of all ages. Since I am blessed in that I have a very large family distributed across a wide range of generations, I'm struck by how different everyone's perceptions can be simply based on age.

The very young children seem intrigued by a contest that seems to resemble a sports game, perhaps one that has gone into overtime. They also, if they play sports, are familiar with the concepts of a sore loser and a gracious winner. With remarkable clarity, they see adult behavior through that lens.

My 20-somethings are still relatively new to the pressures of adulthood, and as much as they care about the election, it seems clear they are more worried about the pandemic and how it affects their chances for employment. They and their friends contemplate their options and may choose graduate school as a wiser option right now than trying to enter a job market that appears especially challenging for them.

My 40-somethings are clearly more worried about how the pandemic is affecting their kids' educations than the outcome of the election, and are particularly critical of the role of the media in this whole drama. I fear that my profession -- journalism -- is losing its appeal to more and more of those younger than me, not because of the actual work journalists do, but the way that work is packaged by media overlords seeking ratings over elucidation.

People in my age range often recall 1968, the Chicago riots, the assassinations and the trauma that era had on those of us politically active in our youth. They also reference Watergate and in general recognize the role investigative reporters have in uncovering the stories that do not conveniently fit into the dominant narratives. They have a healthy cynicism but have not lost hope.

Overall, we are frustrated. We need to know who won. It is apparent that the kinds of deep social cleavages that afflict this society will not be closed by the election result, but perhaps in its aftermath.

I fear we face rough days ahead. But I pray that healing can begin soon after that stretch.

***

Romney: Trump’s election fraud claim wrong, ‘reckless’ -- Trump “is wrong to say the election was rigged, corrupt and stolen,″ Romney said on Twitter. Trump’s claim “damages the cause of freedom here and around the world ... and recklessly inflames destructive and dangerous passions." (AP)

The refrain from state officials is consistent: The Trump campaign’s fraud claims are unfounded (WashPo)

Protesters crying foul over vote counts stir safety concerns (AP)

GOP leaders press Trump team to detail fraud charges as they cautiously navigate the President (CNN)

Trump’s path to electoral victory is disappearing. So are his legal avenues. (WashPo)

* Biden Poised to Move Quickly On Transition If He's Declared Winner (CNN)

It’s Happening Again, Some Grocers Now Limiting Toilet Paper And Disinfecting Wipe Purchases (CBS)

After U.S. tops 116,000 coronavirus cases in one day, officials worry people are ‘giving up’ (WashPo)

Pittsburgh Police In Riot Gear Arrive At ‘Stop The Steal’ Rally Where An Anti-Trump Group Has Also Gathered (CBS)

***

In the waiting room of his shrink's office, Jack Nicholson's character speaks:

  • Melvin Udall [to a group of depressed psychiatric patients]  What if this is as good as it gets?


    (1997)


    -30-

What We've Lost


There is much to celebrate, legitimately. A record vote, no corruption whatsoever, and we're on the verge of a clear and decisive victory for Joe Biden.

But the skies are dark and our hearts are heavy, because we've lost any semblance of a civil society.

The angry loser is whipping up his supporters with lies and propaganda. We all witness the tragic fact that millions of Americans do not care about what journalists do, which is to dig out the truth, free from bias.

Rather, what millions of Americans prefer to embrace is a dark paranoid fantasy and the promise of incipient violence by the right-wing fringe.

Caravans of the American equivalent of jihadists parade our streets in pickup trucks, with flags and rifles,  proclaiming their support of a would-be dictator.

The America of our ideals may be dead. When Joe Biden claims his place as the new President, he will inherit an impossible divide.

He is a healer, a decent man willing to compromise and move the company forward. But his chances of success are virtually nil.

Because his kind of country is gone with the wind -- a toxic wind generated by a racist narcissist who is every bit as dangerous as Adolph Hitler was in the 1930s in Germany.

Our fathers and grandfathers who fought the Nazis in WW2 are turning over in their graves.


***

 * ‘Accuracy Is Vital,’ Georgia Election Official Says  -- A Georgia election official said on Thursday that the state was doing all it could to finalize its election results, with accuracy superseding speed. (AP)


Pennsylvania Official Says Integrity of State’s Voting Processes Is ‘Unparalleled’ -- At a news conference on Thursday, Kathy Boockvar, Pennsylvania’s secretary of state, said that while a large percentage of votes in the state had been counted, the results were not yet certain. (Reuters)

Officials Say Ballots Are Still Being Counted in Clark County Nevada -- On Thursday, the registrar of voters for Clark County, Nev., said that election results may not be available until the weekend. (AP)

One Day in America: More Than 121,000 Virus Cases -- Thursday brought more coronavirus infections than in any other day of the pandemic. Around the country, the virus left its mark. (NYT)

Control of Senate Hinges on Georgia -- Democrat Raphael Warnock’s race against Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler is headed to a Jan. 5 runoff, while the contest between Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Sen. David Perdue could be as well (WSJ)


Protesters March in New York City for Third Night Since Election -- Hundreds of people marched through New York City in support of the Black Lives Matter movement on Thursday evening, marking the third consecutive night of protests since the presidential election. (WSJ)

Biden is winning the presidential popular vote by more than 3.9 million votes and is on his way to being the first candidate to defeat an incumbent president in 28 years. He did so by flipping Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin away from Trump. But now, the third day after Election Day, Biden still has not been declared the winner. This is because Republican-controlled legislatures in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin refused to update their laws to allow election officials to open, process and count mailed ballots early enough to get close to a complete tally on Election Day. [HuffPost]


Fed Says Virus Poses Considerable Risks, Keeps Low-Rate Vow -- The Federal Reserve said the coronavirus pandemic poses considerable risks for the U.S. economy despite recent gains, and officials made no changes to their commitment to provide sustained stimulus (WSJ)


 Dozens of angry Trump supporters converged on vote-counting centers in Detroit and Phoenix as the returns went against the president in the two key states, while thousands of anti-Trump protesters demanding a complete tally of the ballots in the still-undecided election took to the streets in cities across the U.S. Wearing Trump gear, the Phoenix protesters filled much of the parking lot at the Maricopa County election center, and members of the crowd chanted, “Fox News sucks!” in anger over the network declaring Joe Biden the winner in Arizona. [AP]


Facebook, Twitter purge violent rhetoric as tensions rise over election (Reuters)

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Thursday, November 05, 2020

The Virus Strikes Back


                                                               President-Elect Joe Biden


Donald Trump appears to be increasingly unhinged mentally, pathetically claiming he has been cheated when in fact he has been repudiated. He knows what all of us following the numbers know -- that he is losing this election fair and square. But he is psychologically incapable of accepting that.

Since the outcome will be determined in the Electoral College, it has been apparent since yesterday that if Joe Biden won Arizona and Nevada, he'd be President. If he won only one of those plus Georgia, he'd be President. If he lost all those three and won Pennsylvania, he'd be President.

Biden is in the process of winning most or all of those states, though we still have to wait until it becomes official.

The math of all of this suggests that Covid-19 is at the root of what is called the "blue shift' we are witnessing. Many more Democrats than Republicans voted by mail, and in the relevant states, the mail-in ballots are being counted after the in-person ballots. the irony is that Trump has worked for many weeks to undermine the mail-in ballot option, as well as to be publicly dismissive of the virus.

You could say that the virus struck back.

Meanwhile, over 100,000 new infections are reported daily, with 1,000 new deaths. So far 240,000 Americans have died -- that's the equivalent of 80 9/11s. One candidate acted as if he didn't care. He lost.

The other does care. He will be the one who won.

***

An extremely positive aspect of this presidential election is the size of the popular vote.  The country is on track to log more than 160 million total votes cast, which would result in the highest turnout rate in 100 years, at 67 percent of eligible voters. 

Biden will win a clear majority of that total by 4.5 million or more. California alone will provide most of that total, since Biden is carrying around 65 percent of the vote out here. Statistically, that is remarkable -- that one state with about 10 percent of the overall population -- guarantees a lopsided outcome of that scale.

Given the size of California's economy, almost $3 trillion, it ranks as the fifth largest in the world, were it a separate country. The U.S. would still be number one, with roughly $17.5 trillion outside of the Golden State, followed by China, Japan, and Germany.

***

Okay, after all this serious shit, it's time for some fun:

I'm hell on heels
Say what you will
I've done made the devil a deal
He made me pretty
He made me smart
And I'm going to break me a million hearts
I'm hell on heels, baby I'm comin' for you 
-- Miranda Lambert

-30-

Possibly Today

Well, nobody said this would be easy. In my book, there are only four states outstanding -- Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. The math is complex, but Biden could easily win all four.

But he doesn't need to. If he gets the smaller two, Arizona and Nevada, he is at 270 and is the winner. The remaining votes to be counted skew toward Biden, as the big cities in these states -- Las Vegas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Pittsburg -- are still counting ballots, many of which were of the mail-in variety.

The two campaigns have adopted markedly different tones. Trump continues to rant and rage over Twitter, threatening lawsuits and fostering conspiracy theories of thousands of ballots dumped in the trash and so forth.

If this kind of nonsense pollutes your social media feed, be assured it is trash. No such activity is occurring.

Biden is striking a tone of national unity. his speech yesterday was the best I've heard him give -- measured, sincere, articulate. He sounds the way a leader should sound.

Look. Whoever prevails, it's just an election, it is not armageddon. There was one four years ago, there'll be another four years hence.

The people marking ballots and submitting them are your fellow citizens, not scary monsters. It matters in some ways whether they are Republicans, Democrats, or Independents, but it does not matter if they are black, white, brown, yellow, red or mixed race; it does not matter if they are men or women, straight or gay, or trans; it does not matter if they are old or young; sick or disabled or healthy; rich or poor; homeless or living in a mansion.

I could go on and on. the point is they are citizens and they voted. the rest is math.

By tonight, hopefully, the threshold of 270 will be reached.

***

* For the first time, the New York Times had more revenue from online subscriptions than from print sales in the third quarter. (NYT)

Trump campaign mounts challenges in four states as narrow margins raise stakes for battles over which ballots will count (WashPo)

Senate Hinges on Four Uncalled Races With GOP Holding Edge -- Senate Republicans, facing a Democratic offensive, won enough of their re-elections to diminish any chance that Democrats could pick up enough seats to take control of the Senate. (WSJ)

* Two Senate Races in Georgia Will Probably Go to Runoff (numerous)

Trump is using speculative and false allegations of mass voter fraud to suggest that an Electoral College victory is being stolen from him. Many Republican voters cocooned inside a decades-long campaign unmoored from facts are likely to believe him, with some supporters even turning on Fox News in an unexpected scene Wednesday in Arizona. Trump's Justice Department, doing the president's bidding to undermine the election results, did not respond to a request for comment. [HuffPost]

Win or Lose, Trump Will Remain a Powerful and Disruptive Force (NYT)

A U.S. judge said Postmaster General Louis DeJoy must answer questions about why the U.S. Postal Service failed to complete a court-ordered sweep for undelivered ballots in about a dozen states before a Tuesday afternoon deadline. U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan said at a hearing Wednesday that DeJoy “is either going to have to be deposed or appear before me and testify under oath about why some measures were not taken.” The USPS disclosed it eventually completed the sweeps and turned up just 13 ballots in Pennsylvania. [Reuters]

Trump and his allies boost bogus conspiracy theories in a bid to undermine vote count (WashPo)


* Election Reveals Deeper Divides Between Red and Blue America (NYT)


Uber, DoorDash Gig-Worker Victory in California Sets Tone for Other Fights -- Gig-economy companies won passage of a California ballot measure protecting their contract-worker systems, a major victory the companies hope will help them beat back challenges to their business models elsewhere. (WSJ)


Police arrest 11 in Portland, 50 in New York at protests after U.S. vote (Reuters)



* Indonesia Falls Into Recession (NHK)

In COVID clampdown, China bars travellers from Britain, France, India (Reuters)

‘We’re going to the skies and stars!’ The man building our jetpack future (The Guardian)


***

A Republican and a Democrat go into a bar. "I'll have a Bloody Mary," says the Democrat. "And I'll have a Manhattan," says the Republican.

"Sorry," says the bartender, "No and no. Red drinks only for the GOP, and from the Village to midtown to Central Park east and west, that all goes to the Dems.

"But I can serve you both a Black Russian."

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Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Not Knowing

 

On Tuesday, I went into San Francisco to meet my two youngest sons at the Stable Cafe in the Mission District. It was a beautiful fall day, with blue skies and crispy air, and the city looked peaceful, though I did see buildings being boarded up. Of course, since it was Election Day, we talked about the voting, which at that point had not been reported yet.

This is Aidan (26)'s 3rd presidential election, and Dylan (24)'s 2nd. It's my 13th.

Given how near we were to two buildings where I have a lot of history, we went over to look at the KQED headquarters, which is being refurbished; and my old apartment on Hampshire Street, which appears to be unoccupied. 

After a great visit, I traveled back to the East Bay and turned on CNN. As the votes came in, the remaining faith I had in public opinion polls evaporated. The election was clearly must closer than "538" and their ilk had predicted.

Note to self: Never, ever listen to pollsters again.

I felt awful that I had posted on facebook that Biden should win by a large margin. My bad.

Sometime deep in the west coast night, I gave up and went to bed. I didn't get up until late this Wednesday afternoon. Still no decision.

So I'm not going to make another prediction tonight, other than to say we are very close to knowing who won.

-30-

Tale of Two Cities

It was a hard lesson learned in 2016 and even harder this time around, but public opinion polls have absolutely no merit. Nate Silver should be ashamed of himself; I have removed his 538 from my bookmarks and will never use it again.

The positive news is a huge voter turnout across the nation means many more people voted than ever before.

That's the good news.

The bad news, for our collective blood pressure, is the outcome of the presidential election hangs by a thread.

As of this hour, 3:30 am EDT, there are a number of states where the outcome is too close to call. I've done a back-of-the-envelope calculation (literally) and if everything breaks as I suspect it will, Biden will end with 270 electoral votes and Trump 268.

But that assumes that Biden wins Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump, according to my assumptions, wins Pennsylvania and North Carolina. 

They split Michigan and Georgia, one each. Which comes down to Detroit and Atlanta, where the remaining votes have to be tabulated.

That's my math -- a razor-thin margin. But whoever wins, we will have a more deeply divided nation than at any time since the first Civil War.

This is a difficult moment to be an American.

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Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Election Day Viewing Guide


Now that Election Day has arrived, here are some suggestions for how to optimize your viewing experience.

1. Timing. The earliest poll closings will be in early evening on the east coast. You can safely wait until 4 p.m. EDT to turn on your device. So go outside and breathe the fresh air.

2. President. There are only a handful of states where the outcome of the presidential election is in doubt. Watch Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia in particular.

3. Outcome. The polls don't always get it right, but this time, Biden should win by a substantial margin (two to one) in the Electoral College. The major networks and the AP will be cautious but we should know by very late tonight or tomorrow morning.

4. Senate. It currently is 53-47 Republicans over Democrats. Odds are it will flip to Democratic control. We may not know tonight.

5. House. It will remain solidly in Democratic control.

6. Popular Vote. Biden will win the popular vote, but by how much? Probably about 6 million, twice as much as Clinton won by in 2016.

7. Size of Turnout. A big turnout favors Democrats; expect at least 150 million.

8. Violence. I believe the likelihood is small and is being somewhat overhyped by media reports. expect sporadic incidents of caravan-type events.

9. Fireworks. When Biden wins our major cities will erupt in joy with fireworks.

10. Food & Drink. Comfort food for sure and if you must drink, just sip. You don't want to miss this one.

***

Here's the news:

 Final Forecast On Who Wins Presidential Race: Biden 89%, Trump 10%. (538) 

TRUMP'S LAST-DITCH PITCH: I'LL CHEAT President Donald Trump headed into Election Day with a brazen pledge: that he will cheat by not counting all the ballots. “It’s a terrible thing when people or states are allowed to tabulate ballots for a long period of time after the election is over because it can only lead to one thing, and that’s very bad,” Trump said as he repeated his desire to end all vote counting on Tuesday night. “As soon as that election is over, we’re going in with our lawyers.” Trump’s campaign put out an ominous statement Monday, making clear that it is going to fight to make sure every vote will not be counted. [HuffPost]

Hillary Clinton Was Right to Warn Us -- She grasped the danger posed by the “vast right-wing conspiracy,” Russian interference and Trump. (NYT)

Officials prepare for the unpredictable as a tense Election Day arrives (WashPo)

Stocks Rise as U.S. Voters Head to Polls -- Investors are betting on a Democratic sweep of the White House and Congress, which could result in a generous fiscal stimulus package (WSJ)

As Voting Nears End, Battle Intensifies Over Which Ballots Will Count -- President Trump and his allies say they intend an aggressive challenge to how the votes are counted in key states, and Democrats are mobilizing to meet it. (NYT)

*  Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate in the 2020 elections by 75%-25%. (538)

As Election Day Arrives, Trump Shifts Between Combativeness and Grievance  -- The president is sounding notes of bravado and exasperation at the end of a divisive campaign. But he may have severed himself from the political realities of a country in crisis. (NYT)

Top White House adviser Birx bluntly contradicts Trump on virus threat, urging all-out response (WashPo)

* Caravans of Trump supporters have taken over highways, bridges and city streets in recent days in aggressive displays of support for the president. One convoy drove through Marin City, California, and shouted racial epithets at children. In Louisville, Kentucky, a “Trump Train” member directed traffic with a gun at a high school. These events, and dozens more in nearly every state in the U.S., were coordinated online by “MAGA Drag the Interstate,” a self-described “assemblage of patriots.” [HuffPost]

National Guard Readies for Election Day Deployment (NYT)

* In a Hot Election, the Cool-Headed Associated Press Takes Center Stage (NYT)

 

Trump signals chaotic stretch after election (WashPo)

PELOSI: 'WE'RE READY' IF TRUMP TRIES TO CREATE CHAOS On the eve of an election in which the president of the United States is signaling he’ll do anything to win, including promoting violence and cheating, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) says she’s been preparing for months for Trump to try to steal the election and is confident Americans’ votes will be fairly counted in the end. “We’re ready for it all,” Pelosi told HuffPost. “I would just like him to know it ain’t going to happen for him at the end of the day.” [HuffPost]

Vienna Terrorist Attack Leaves at Least 4 Dead and Many Wounded -- A gunman killed by the police was an Islamic State “sympathizer,” Austria’s interior minister said. The police were searching for possible accomplices on Tuesday morning. (NYT)

Almost Like Clockwork, Talk of a Military Coup Follows Thai Protests (NYT)

Deutsche Bank AG is looking for ways to end its relationship with President Donald Trump after the U.S. elections, as it tires of the negative publicity stemming from the ties, according to three senior bank officials with direct knowledge of the matter. (Reuters)

***

O say can you see by the dawn's early light
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming
Whose broad stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight
O'er the ramparts we watched, were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there
O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave

-- Francis Scott Key

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