Shaping Your Views.1

Tonight, I'm wishing to draw attention to a summary of an article that the New York Times is publishing on its front page tomorrow.

Conflict of interest. You hear the phrase all the time. Here is an example of how it affects our foreign policy.

The New York Times
April 20, 2008

Behind TV Analysts, Pentagon’s Hidden Hand
By DAVID BARSTOW

In the summer of 2005, the Bush administration confronted a fresh wave of criticism over Guantánamo Bay. The detention center had just been branded “the gulag of our times” by Amnesty International, there were new allegations of abuse from United Nations human rights experts and calls were mounting for its closure.

The administration’s communications experts responded swiftly. Early one Friday morning, they put a group of retired military officers on one of the jets normally used by Vice President Dick Cheney and flew them to Cuba for a carefully orchestrated tour of Guantánamo.

To the public, these men are members of a familiar fraternity, presented tens of thousands of times on television and radio as “military analysts” whose long service has equipped them to give authoritative and unfettered judgments about the most pressing issues of the post-Sept. 11 world.

Hidden behind that appearance of objectivity, though, is a Pentagon information apparatus that has used those analysts in a campaign to generate favorable news coverage of the administration’s wartime performance, an examination by The New York Times has found.

The effort, which began with the buildup to the Iraq war and continues to this day, has sought to exploit ideological and military allegiances, and also a powerful financial dynamic: Most of the analysts have ties to military contractors vested in the very war policies they are asked to assess on air.

Those business relationships are hardly ever disclosed to the viewers, and sometimes not even to the networks themselves. But collectively, the men on the plane and several dozen other military analysts represent more than 150 military contractors either as lobbyists, senior executives, board members or consultants. The companies include defense heavyweights, but also scores of smaller companies, all part of a vast assemblage of contractors scrambling for hundreds of billions in military business generated by the administration’s war on terror. It is a furious competition, one in which inside information and easy access to senior officials are highly prized...
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Blown Away

A fierce wind howled through the Bay Area today. Those of us who are Soccer Moms have wind-burned faces tonight.



It was also another day of the Japanese Cherry Blossom Festival. You know, sake in a box, Sapporo in a bag, and kids dressing up as anime characters.



Baby plums are swelling on our tree. This year, I must make jam.

It was a bad day for my soccer stars, both losing for the first time this season, 0-3 and 0-6. Yuck.

It's a much better season for my fantasy baseball teams: the Mafia are in first place; the Burritos are in second place.

We bought fish in Japantown -- sawma. I've been trying to convert to fish as much as I can from my voracious meat-eating habit. The transition is not really very difficult because I think of my childhood, and my Dad out on the lake, catching our dinner.

I've always loved fresh fish, cooked over an open fire.

But, hey, I'm part-Scottish, too, so tomorrow night, it'll be lamb roast.

If you have not yet had a chance to review some of my blog posts on the media business, but would like to, please click on the title of this post, and you'll go directly to the BNET page where those columns appear.

This address, Hotweir, is my personal journal. That one is my professional blog. We live in an age now where millions of people blog every day. Most have few readers. I've been blessed to have found a modest audience, many of whom contact me via email or even post a comment here, now and then.

But this is a not-for-profit activity; in fact, to be blunt, this is huge loss leader for me. BNET potentially is different. So, if were to make an appeal, it would be to please visit that one if you like this one. The only way this one can truly thrive is if that one does.

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From Fort Funston to Wall Street

First, tonight, a slide show.










***

Investor's Corner

These three NASDAQ winners all finished the week sharply up.

$540.21 Google

$161.58 Apple

$ 80.10 Amazon

Still, due to the weak economy, they remain below their historic peaks. Now, I'm getting used to making predictions, here's how I see the rest of this year playing out. Google will reach $700, Apple $200, and Amazon $100.

That's $200 upside on each $781.89 you might invest for one share of each of these companies. Obviously, don't hold me responsible if this proves to be wrong; I'm neither a licensed analyst nor an active investor myself. But I'll tell you this. If I had, say $5,000 to invest next Monday morning, I'd consider spreading it among these three tech companies, and hope to see a 25% return ($1,250) by Christmas.

The three firms are managed by smart, aggressive people who understand their market strength, their brand equity, their product lines, and most importantly, the global nature of today's Internet-driven business environment.

Maybe someone reading this has a spare $5k to risk. If so, and if you try my strategy, please let me know how it turns out.

All I can do, sadly, is watch from the sidelines for I currently have no money at all.

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Wow!

I was right! Google waited until after the stock markets closed to announce that its Q-1 earnings had beaten everyone's expectation (except mine, apparently.) If you read my piece this morning and acted on it, you've made 17% profit in one day ($76 per share).

The key, as I had anticipated, was Google's strong international search ad revenue; overseas business accounted for over half of Google's entire corporate revenue for the first time ever.

So, let's just turn back the clock to my previous post eight hours ago. Say a bunch of us had pooled resources and taken a shot at making money today. Say we'd managed to buy 100 shares of Google at its day price; tonight we'd have harvested $7600 in profit!

Don't try this at home, kids. I've been wrong more often than right. But this time, because I've been covering Google's overseas investments, I sensed that the Mountainview-based giant had its bets covered.

Smart people, those Google execs.

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So you want to be an investor?

I'm amused by all the analysts who have switched their recommendation on Google stock to SELL lately. An earnings report is due today, and conventional wisdom is the slowly domestic economy will keep the search giant from hitting its quarterly target.

I'm not any kind of registered analyst but my recommendation is BUY.

Why?

Because, unlike many large American companies, Google has recognized that its main venue for growth will be overseas, and it's put its money where its users are. It owns four of the top seven websites in India, for instance, where only a fraction of the population is online, but where the Internet market is entering a period of exponential growth.

Not to mention China.

Therefore, if I had a spare $440, I'd buy a share of Google right now, before the company announces its earnings report. Because, I believe the company's global strategy will pay off and provide the necessary counter-balance to its slowing U.S. business performance.

You read it here first! But please don't blame me if the conventional thinkers are right on this one. I'm just sticking my neck out -- something I like to do now and again...

:------)

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Dads Shopping With Daughters

I suspect that when the end of my time here on earth comes, assuming I get enough time to reflect on it, one of my favorite memories will be taking my daughters shopping.

That may surprise you, because I, like many men, absolutely hate shopping.

Except in one circumstance. Holding one of my daughters' hands, going downtown, finding the store, and locating the clothes that make them feel happy -- that makes me feel good.



Call me a sucker (I am) but when I get the opportunity to take one of my daughters shopping, and we find something she likes, I feel fulfilled as a parent.

I don't know why. But maybe these flowers and carrots (shot by JuJu) or my portrait of JuJu (photographed by me) supply some answers. And I certainly hope the answer is not that I was a closet consumer.

Of all the roles I've played in this complex life, that of father is by far the most satisfying. I hope all of my girls (and boys) will remember that once I am gone.

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The Blues, Continued

I've been listening to, and attending, blues concerts all of my adult life. I didn't see this particular one until recently, courtesy of YouTube. It's B.B. King with guitarist Gary Moore. It's even better than the ones I've seen with Eric Clapton, because of the interaction between the singer and the guitar player.

The Thrill is Gone...

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A New Era for Global Agriculture

Kids selling cooked yam on the street in China.
Image courtsey of EastSouthWestNorth


The following is a statement by the citizen's groups* that attended the United Nations' “International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD)” in Johannesburg last week.

The final report, approved last week by 54 governments -- although not the U.S. -- is a sobering account of the failure of industrial farming. It calls for a fundamental change in the way we do farming, to better address soaring food prices, hunger, social inequities and environmental disasters.

The report reflects a growing consensus among the global scientific community and most governments that the old paradigm of industrial, energy-intensive and toxic agriculture is a concept of the past. The key message of the report is that small-scale farmers and agro-ecological methods provide the way forward to avert the current food crisis and meet the needs of local communities. For the first time an independent, global assessment acknowledges that farming has a diversity of environmental and social functions and that nations and peoples have the right to democratically determine their best food and agricultural policies.

The IAASTD process itself was a path-breaking one, in which governments, major research institutions, industry and civil society shared equal responsibility in its governance and implementation. Its success proved that civil society participation as full partners in intergovernmental processes is critical to meeting the challenges of the 21st century. The global community’s widespread acceptance of this report is reflected in its approval by the vast majority of participating governments.

Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States have as yet not signed on to the final report. After watering down the formulation of several key findings during the meeting in Johannesburg, the Bush administration still claimed the assessment was unbalanced. That precise allegation came some months earlier from the agrochemical and biotech industries.

However, the report’s lack of support for the further industrialization and globalization of agriculture as well as for genetically engineered plants in particular, was based on a rigorous and peer-reviewed analysis of the empirical evidence by hundreds of scientists and development experts. These experts had been selected, together with other stakeholders, by the very same governments and companies that are now calling the assessment “unbalanced.”

The civil society groups that have participated in the IAASTD process over the past six years may not fully agree with some of the government-negotiated conclusions of the report, but they respect the fact that this report reflects the current consensus within the scientific community. We call on all governments, civil society and international institutions to support the findings of this report, implement its progressive conclusions, and thereby jump start the revolution in agricultural policies and practices that is urgently needed to attain more equitable and sustainable food and farming systems in the future.

Statements from civil society representatives present in Johannesburg, 7-12 April 2008:

“This report proves one thing: Yes, we can produce more and better food without destroying rural livelihoods and our natural resources,”
Kevin Akoyi, Uganda, for Vredeseilanden (Belgium)

“This report clearly shows that small-scale farmers and the environment lose out under trade liberalization. Developing countries must exercise their right to stop the flood of cheap, subsidised products from the North.”
Lim Li Ching, Malaysia, Third World Network

“The Green Revolutionaries of the past, with all their expensive and toxic products, have left a trail of destruction. The IAASTD essentially says it's time to clean that up and move on.”
Romeo Quijano, Philippines, Pesticide Action Network

“This marks the beginning of a new, of a real Green Revolution. The modern way of farming is biodiverse and labour intensive and works with nature, not against it.”
Benny Haerlin, Germany, Greenpeace

“The IAASTD provides the evidence to show that locally-controlled, biologically-based intensification of farming is the only way forward. In short, it supports food sovereignty.”
Patrick Mulvany, UK, Practical Action

“This is a wake-up call for governments and international agencies. The survival of the planet’s food systems demands global action to support agroecological farming and fair and equitable trade.
Marcia Ishii-Eiteman, USA, Pesticide Action Network North America (PANNA).

“It is heartening to see that the scientists refuted the usual propaganda on genetically engineered (GE) crops. They focused on the real problems and saw very little role for GE crops in their solutions.”
Juan Lopez, Spain, Friends of the Earth International.

“The scientific evidence gives unequivocal support to organic agriculture. Organic Agriculture is a credible solution for the 21st century as a sustainable production method – social, economic and environmental sustainability put into practice.” Prabha Mahale, India, International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements. ( IFOAM)

* AGENDA (Tanzania), Consumers International, Friends of the Earth International, Greenpeace, International Federation of Organic Agriculture Movements, Pesticide Action Network, Practical Action, Third World Network, Uganda Environmental Education Fund and Vredeseilanden.


-----------------------------------------------------
Contact Information:
Kevin Akoyi, (IAASTD CSO Bureau Member from Uganda)
Vredeseilanden, Email: kevinakoyim@yahoo.co.uk, mobile:

Benny Haerlin ((IAASTD CSO Bureau Member from Germany)
Greenpeace Intl., Email: haerlin@zs-l.de, Phone: + 49 173 9997555

Marcia Ishii-Eiteman, PhD (Lead Author, Global Report)
Pesticide Action Network North America (in US)
Email: mie@panna.org, Office: +1-415-981-1771, Mobile: 1-510-684-6860

Lim Li Ching (Lead Author, Asia report; note surname Lim)
Third World Network, Email: limliching@myjaring.net, mobile: +6012 2079744

Prabha Mahale, PhD (IAASTD CSO Bureau member from India)
IFOAM, Email: prabhamahale@vsnl.com , Phone: + 91 124 2560886

Patrick Mulvaney, Senor Policy Advisor, Practical Action (UK)
Email: patrickmulvany@clara.co.uk, mobile: +44 7949 575711, Web: practicalaction.org

Romeo Quijano, MD (IAASTD CSO Bureau member from Philippines)
PAN Philippines, Email: romyquij@yahoo.com, mobile: +63-9-27-602-4947

Erika Rosenthal, LLD (Lead Author, Global & Synthesis Report; Trade Theme)
Email: erosenthal@igc.org, Office: +1-202-742-5846, Mobile +1-415-812-2055.
April 14-16 in London: +44-20-7839-9333

Juan Lopez, (IAASTD CSO Bureau member from Spain)
Friends of the Earth International
Email: juanlopezvillar@gmail.com, Phone (Maputo): +258842420298

Jan Van Aken , Greenpeace Intl.
Email: jan.vanaken@int.greenpeace.org, Phone: +49 40 306 18-389, Mobile: +49 151 1805 3415


SPANISH-Speaking:
Luis Gomero (Lead Author, Latin America Regional report)
RAAA, Peru, Email: lgomero@raaa.org, Tel: (51-1) 4257955


Additional Lead Authors (academic/research institutions)

Janice Jiggins, PhD (Lead Author, Global & Synthesis Report)
Wageningen University, Netherlands
Tel: ++ 31 (0) 488 451016, Mobile 06 53 933 863;
Email: janice.jiggins@inter.nl.net

Stephen Biggs, PhD (Review Editor, Globa reportl)
Tel: (44) 1273 414449, Mobile: (44) 07908117974
Email: biggs.s@gmail.com

Jack A. Heinemann, PhD (Lead Author, Global & Synthesis Reports, Biotech theme)
Director INBI, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Eml: jack.heinemann@canterbury.ac.nz, Office : +64 3 364 2926 (or c/o +64 3 364 2500)

Ivette Perfecto, PhD (Coordinating Lead Author, Latin America Report)
University of Michigan, School of Nat Resources/Envir, Tel: +1 (734) 764-1433, ivette@umich.edu

Rajeswari Raina, PhD (Lead Author, Asia report)
Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research,
New Delhi , India (but currently in Berlin)
Email: rajeswari_raina@yahoo.com, Tel: ++30 -89001312

Niels Roling, PhD (Review Editor, Global report)
Wageningen University, Netherlands
Tel: ++ 31 (0) 488 451016, Mobile: 06 20 25 0080
Eml: n.roling@inter.nl.net

61*

On a cold, windy night, warmth in the form of a lovely meal -- papaya, avocado, and scallop salad; duck spring rolls with green mango sauce; New Zealand lamb chops; and seafood gumbo.

Yum. San Francisco cuisine.

For BNET, I investigated blogging in China. Click on the title of this post if you are interested in that piece.

It's a good time for another ring on the tree. I'm watching the fastest human being on the planet, Eugenio Velez, one of the baby Giants in the post-Bonds era, run the bases, and hoping to see the unknown rookie slugger, John Bowker, before this game is over.

All Bowker did was hit two home runs into the right field pavilion (Barry's old territory) and drive in seven runs in two games this weekend.

You don't have to be a baseball fan to appreciate the gifts and dreams of youth on display in China Basin this season.

Finally, as a birthday present, my fantasy teams both maintained their hold on first place tonight.

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* - "61" is a baseball movie about Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle in 1961, when Maris broke Babe Ruth's all-time home run record. It's also my new age.

This Just In, Sports Fans

My fantasy baseball teams, The Mud Lake Mafia, and El Matate Burritos, are both in first place at this (early) part of the season. It should be noted that none of my teams have ever finished above fourth place in any league, so I am savoring this (no doubt) temporary state of affairs.


Champs of Summer
1. Mud Lake Mafia 391.50
2. Minnesota Fats 371.50
3. Movin on Upton 363.00
4. Dearborn Docs 358.00
5. For Sale By Owner 352.50
6. Wandering Rentboys 346.00
7. Wrecking Balls 337.50
8. Grand Rapids Fanboys 323.00
9. The Laggards 313.00
10. LeFlore Mats 284.50
11. Jamestown Morgellons 275.50
12. Farm Town Ratz 255.00
13. Beviers Johnnies 227.50
14. The Also Rans 209.00


Rotisserie League
1. El Matate Burritos 184
2. Black Sox II 156.5
3. nanosquad 153.5
4. MICROCUTS= 151.5
5. The Twinkies 147.5
6. Pocket Pool 147
7. The Untouchables 145
8. Purple Hazers 143
9. MinnesotaMongols 141
10. Liars and Cheats 140
11. Bluecrew 08 139
12. Ya know! 119
13. BALCO 97
14. Face Eaters 91
15. Mulato Dolls 85

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