Saturday, October 05, 2024

Weekend Links

“The more intelligent a person is, the more he discovers kindness in others. For nothing enriches the world more than kindness. It makes mysterious things clear, difficult things easy, and dull things cheerful.” — Leo Tolstoy

HEADLINES: 

  • Hurricane Helene satellite images show major devastation in North Carolina as death toll continues to rise (CBS)

  • Yellow jackets swarm after North Carolina floods, prompting need for Benadryl and EpiPens (NBC)

  • Mayorkas warns FEMA doesn’t have enough funding to last through hurricane season (AP)

  • Biden’s Surprise Press Briefing (PBS)

  • Trump Promised to Release His Medical Records. He Still Won’t Do It. If elected again, he would become the oldest president by the end of his term. Yet he is refusing to disclose even basic health information. (NYT)

  • Trump’s Jan. 6 role back in focus as he readies new stolen election claims (WP)

  • Latest CNN ‘Road to 270’ map sees small but consequential move in Harris’ direction (CNN)

  • Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in polls with early voting under way (Guardian)

  • Swing State Polling Finds Deadlocked Presidential Contest, ‘Blue Wall’ Senate Races Tighten (Cook Political Report)

  • October 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 48% (Emerson)

  • Many of the tactics Jack Smith accused Trump of using to overturn the 2020 election are still in play for 2024 (CNN)

  • Blowout September jobs data points to solid economy and slower Fed rate cuts, analysts say (USA Today)

  • The Latest Employment Numbers And The Presidential Election (Forbes)

  • America's one-two punch of good economic news (Axios)

  • False claims about FEMA disaster funds and migrants pushed by Trump (NBC)

  • As Trump makes false claims about hurricane relief, White House calls it ‘poison’ (WP)

  • Satellite images show dozens of Iranian missiles struck near Israeli air base (NPR)

  • Inside the $621 Million Legal Battle for the ‘Soul of the Internet’ (Rolling Stone)

  • Nearly 50% of researchers quit science within a decade, huge study reveals (Nature)

  • Kris Kristofferson, singer, songwriter and actor, 1936-2024 (Financial Times)

  • AI to Have Human-Level Abilities in a Few Years, SoftBank CEO Son Says (WSJ)

  • Meta unveils advanced video-creation AI (Axios)

  • Scientists Let Defrosted Neanderthal Run Around Shrieking Before Refreezing Him (The Onion)

 

Friday, October 04, 2024

The Razor's Edge


 Well, it’s gotten even closer.

For those who hoped the Presidential race would be less of a nail-biter than it was projected to be a week ago, those wishes did not materialize.

When I crunched the numbers a week ago, it looked like the margin of victory separating the two candidates in the all-important seven swing states would be about 440,000 votes out of the 162 million expected to be cast nationally.

That was 0.0027.

As of this morning, I calculate the number to be 368,000 votes or only 0.0023. That is just under one-quarter of one percent.

While it’s hard to believe that the electorate could be that evenly divided, math doesn’t lie.

Here’s how the seven swing states look to end up with the margin of votes in parenthesis:

Arizona (Trump +45,800)

Georgia (Trump +67,600)

Michigan (Harris +92,200)

Nevada (Harris +14,600)

North Carolina (Trump +45,900)

Pennsylvania (Harris +43,300)

Wisconsin (Harris +58,300)

If we consider the swing states as a bloc, the math becomes even more ridiculous. These states represent just under 20 percent of the voting population nationally. Inside that bloc, Harris leads Trump by 49,100 votes or a minuscule 0.0003 percent of the national electorate. That’s smaller than the crescent of your little toenail when you trim your nails.

If these projections hold, Harris will win in the Electoral College by a margin of 276-262. Of course when it comes to the popular vote, she is headed for a mini-landslide victory of over 4.2 million votes.

(Note on methodology: I took the vote totals in each state in 2020, increased them by four percent to account for population growth and then used 538’s polls as of this morning to calculate the number of votes in each state,)

HEADLINES:

Thursday, October 03, 2024

Tidelines

(This is either a short story or an excerpt from an unpublished novel I stopped writing 20 years ago.)

A tiny slip of land appeared off the coast at sunset, momentarily lit by the arc of the sun’s last rays. As our plane banked toward the mainland, the island quickly disappeared from sight again.

Twelve hours later, we would be setting out from that very spot, heading north, hugging the coastline. 

These waters don’t always forgive careless sailors. Here the water is warm, cloudy with sand. Where the creeks empty out, brown dyes from tannic acid leaks from the mangroves. Predator birds, poison spiders, alligators, stingrays, crabs and other scavengers wait nearby, unseen and unheard.

Most sailors do just fine around here unless they strike an oyster bed, get drunk, or do both. We glide easily, nose into the wind, black mast shining, at our purposeful pace, tracing the beaches that stretch onward without apparent end. Offshore the water is crystal clear; the winds are steady.

For as long as it takes, we’ll drift on the bay side of each succeeding shoreline, some sandy, some mangroved, our silvery fishing lines trailing, seeking dinner. At night, we’ll retreat to familiar, calm places to throw anchor and sip our margaritas, waiting on the stars.

A large shark trailed us for two hours this afternoon: sleek, blue-gray, probably hungry, maybe curious, maybe ill or affected by pollution somehow. We drifted slowly along in our most submissive pose. 

“I think I’ll go for a night swim,” I say to no one in particular.

So as the sun falls, I slip overboard, swim 25 yards out to the tideline, turn over and float, waiting for the strike. After a quarter-hour, still separated by 25 yards, carried at the same speed by the same tide, I return to the boat. The hair on my body falls flat against my skin, coated with salt like a fresh cut of flank steak. 

Hibiscus, palmetto, prickly pears, carissas, wild avocados, wild papayas, key limes, coconuts – they’re what grow in these islands. They get ripe, fall in storms, and rot in the white sand. Rarely does anybody peel back their skins or crunch into their centers except for the drifters like us.

Stopping by one of the clapboard houses on the inland waterfront would be an option tonight. Everybody knows everybody around here. But when twilight merges with purple, our drinks taste big. This is their special hour. Olives never sink into ice out here. Night music suddenly rushes offshore, from a point near the only house overlooking this shallow bay, dark and lonely. 

Inside that house, the smells are dank, warm, and sweet, like memories held closely. Once we ventured there, stoned and dancing, but now its long, loose-boarded dock lays bare, inching out into the bay, covered in white Pelican droppings, lit up by the moon, waiting.

Jessica liked to dance here, her flimsy cotton skirt twirling like seaweed around her long white legs and her girlish figure. We were always watching her, always consuming. Everyone had to watch Jessie, and her showings. She danced and she laughed, always too close to the edge, sometimes falling in, of course. After that, her clothes fit her like an extra membrane; and our voices turned husky from the wanting.

But now it’s Rembrandt-black out here and the only ones dancing are the shooting stars overhead. The poisons I’ve lit scare away a few of the killer mosquitoes. Fat white mullet jump after those mosquitoes in the shallows. I curl my upper lip; another night here and I may be eating them, tearing them apart slice by slice, dropping oily white pieces all down my naked chest.

The next day we’re far offshore, suffering our due from that damned night, those damned olives, those damned lime slices. Damned Jessie, too. “You don’t like my dancing any more,” she pouted. But I‘m already looking away, no longer hearing. Now it’s Susan, pink like a prickly pear, brown and white, tight, soft, wet and curving. 

Into the shore we go, all too happily of course, in search of the foods only these parts know how to yield. My knife has lodged itself in between my teeth. We unravel our ropes and jump into the brown-green water, waist-deep, wading now into the sandiest places, cutting our toes on oyster beds, freeing some of the type-O blood that scavengers love, moving among weed beds where biting worms back their slim little hips into caves, corkscrewing backwards, their tiny teeth bared, waiting for something fresh to rip into.

A storm is building. We can hear its whispers and taste its wetness. My knife peels away a few of the thorns from a prickly pear, my teeth tear into the sweet redness, juices squirt south. Lovely Susan smiles in tonight’s twilight, quivering at my touch. We consume robust offerings, then wash all the evidence away, and sit down again, waiting out a hoped-for death tide. Looking out at this blood-red sky, we are so much detritus, willing to leave a trail of whatever story that seems fitting in our wake.

But no luck tonight. The tide’s going out, not coming in. The boggy coast empties itself, releasing organic odors. This bay is off-gassing. Crustaceans left behind by the tide crawl across the mud, each species with its own distinctive trail. 

Just like humans. 

It’s time to drink all of this discomfort back into its place. After all, this is a mosquito habitat, not a human place, at least not for modern humans. The rafters of that one old house probably host more skinny black tree rats right now than the total number of people who have ever eaten, slept, or made love there. This boat, by contrast, is only populated by me, Jessie, Susan and a few others whose names are probably best forgotten. 

There are shell mounds, poking up along the shore, all that’s left from the thousands of years that Native people fished and hunted here. Now and then a bone fragment breaks free, human bones, old, greenish, broken, thick and blunted by sand and salt. Their owners knew which plants and which juices drove the mosquitoes away. We have only our silly synthetics, which, facing the genetic plasticity of creatures who reproduce in the bat of our eye, do little more than engender resistance, so we mindlessly escalate our chemical warfare in return – a modern cycle of despair.

Tonight, we cook small blue crabs, pulled off of the bay’s soft bottom, in butter. It goes well with sea lettuce, the kind whose salty fibers taste sharp and peppery. This is so healthy, I am proud. Time now to wash it all down with some firewater. Slowly, the ghosts join me. Everything else -- the sounds, the smells, the fears –- retreat, leaving us alone and intimate.

‘Suddenly the sounds of the fiddles and accordions sweetly begin to play...and I can almost hear her sweet voice say.’

”Maybe the storm decided to pass by,“ Susan calls out from below. She steps up and out onto the deck, unwraps her towel and walks boldly into the moonlight, wearing her tan lines like camouflage. Tomorrow the sun will again stroke her body like the tides stroke the bay. 

Everything leaves its mark.

(Copyright: David A. Weir)

HEADLINES: 

LYRICS:

"Come on Joe"

Well, it's a long, hot night
And the stars are shining kinda extra bright
Sitting on the back porch glidin'
Whetting my appetite

Well, I'm a six-pack high
And start missing the light of my baby's eyes
Wasn't it beautiful, the kind of a soul they said would never die

Well, it's muggy in the shack
And the backwoods are black
'Cause the clouds hid the moon away
The light from my cigarette flickers in the dark
The only way she knows I'm here
Then suddenly the sounds of the fiddles and accordions
Sweetly begin to play and I can almost hear her sweet voice say

Come on Joe, just count to ten
Pull yourself together again
And come on Joe, you gotta get hold of this mood you're in
Come on Joe, you gotta be strong
You're still young and life goes on to carry on
'Til we're together again

Hey, I know she's right
But it's hard to fight when you're hurtin' so
I tried to walk out of that door before but I just can't go
With the tears and the laughter in every rafter in every room
Wasn't it beautiful
Wasn't it the kind of happiness and glow

Come on Joe, just count to ten
Pull yourself together again
And come on Joe, you gotta get hold of this mood you're in
Come on Joe, you gotta be strong
You're still young and life goes on to carry on
'Til we're together again

Come on Joe
Hey, come on Joe
To carry on 'til we're together again

-- Written by Tony Romeo, Sung by Jo-El Sonnier 

Wednesday, October 02, 2024

Making Nice

As much as television reporters tried to build up anticipation for last night’s vice-presidential debate, predicting an old-fashioned brawl, they knew it was doubtful it would matter in November. Voters focus on the top race on the ballot, not the second one.

That said, since this has been a very strange political year, who knows.

The polls seem to be stuck in molasses. Harris maintains somewhere around a 2.5 points nationally and the races are even closer in the critical seven swing states. Harris maintains slender leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, whereas Trump is slightly ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Therefore, if those numbers persist through Election Day, Harris will win. But that is a big if.

Back to the debate between the V-P candidates. Those predicting a brawl were wrong; it was more like a polite conversation over coffee in the local diner. Vance clearly was smoother and more in control than Walz, who appeared nervous and muffed several lines. But Walz cornered Vance on whether Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and Vance dodged the question.

That may be the only enduring takeaway from the debate.

Bottom line? This debate seems unlikely to affect the outcome in November.

HEADLINES:

  • Microsoft: 'ever present' AI assistants are coming (BBC)

  • MIT spinoff Liquid debuts non-transformer AI models and they’re already state-of-the-art (Venture Beat)

  • Tim Walz Stays Up All Night Making Shoe-Box Diorama Of Washington Crossing The Delaware (The Onion)

Tuesday, October 01, 2024

Echoes in the Canyons

 “Freedom’s just another word for nothin’ left to lose.” — Kris Kristofferson

***

So, after a long period of not slapping on my headphones and rocking out to YouTube music videos, my old habit started up again recently. It really is an addiction of sorts, and as such, it seems to have a mind of its own.

And all I know is that I love it.

Like all major digital services, YouTube has a good memory; it knows what I like. Thus, inevitably it has been surfacing lots of performances of songs written by one of my favorite songwriters, Kris Kristofferson.

As I was driving down the freeway yesterday, listening our local NPR affiliate (and my former employer) KQED, the news broke that Kris Kristofferson is gone. He died Saturday at the age of 88.

One of the things I dislike about aging is the ever-growing list of our generational talents silenced by death. As far as I know, he didn’t write anything recently, but “Me and Bobby McGee,” and “Help Me Make It Through the Night,” and “Sunday Mornin’ Comin’ Down, and “Why Me Lord” and “Riders in the Sky,” and “Loving Her Was Easier” among others, rank him as among the great American story-telling writers of my lifetime.

His lovely, haunting tunes will live on, echoing through time.

Also read: Kris Kristofferson: Five (or maybe 10) of his best songs (BBC)

Watch: Kris Kristofferson: The Counter-Culture Hero (YouTube)

Note: Howard Kohn and I shared story credit for the 1981 film, Rollover, starring Kris Kristofferson and Jane Fonda (Warner Brothers).

HEADLINES:

  • Supplies arrive by plane and by mule in North Carolina as Helene’s death toll tops 130 (AP)

  • Israel Strikes Multiple Fronts, Including Long-Distance Attack on Yemen (NYT)

  • Israeli Special Forces Launch Raids Into Lebanon Ahead of Expected Ground Incursion (WSJ)

  • Biden administration doubles down on tough asylum restrictions at border (AP)

  • Trump Allies Bombard the Courts, Setting Stage for Post-Election Fight (NYT)

  • State judge strikes down Georgia abortion ban (NBC)

  • At a rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, former President Donald Trump seemed to casually suggest that a day of violence would put an end to crime. “One rough hour. And I mean real rough, the world will get it out, and it will end immediately. End immediately," he said. [HuffPost]

  • Why is Canada’s economy falling behind America’s? (Economist)

  • America’s Adversaries Are Targeting Its Cities and States (Foreign Policy)

  • NASA is selling a brand-new Moon rover (Economist)

  • Kris Kristofferson, rugged star of song and screen, dies at 88 (WP)

  • Baseball legend Pete Rose dies at the age of 83 (ABC)

  • California Governor Vetoes Sweeping A.I. Legislation (NYT)

  • California governor vetoes controversial AI bill in a win for Big Tech (WP)

  • ‘Damn, That’s Crazy,’ Announces FEMA In Statement (The Onion)

LYRICS: 

“Sunday Mornin’ Comin’ Down” by Kris Kristofferson

[Verse 1]
Well, I woke up Sunday morning
With no way to hold my head that didn't hurt
And the beer I had for breakfast wasn't bad
So I had one more for dessert
Then I fumbled through my closet for my clothes
And found my cleanest dirty shirt
And I shaved my face and combed my hair
And stumbled down the stairs to meet the day

[Verse 2]
I'd smoked my brain the night before
On cigarettes and songs that I'd been pickin'

But I lit my first and watched a small kid
Cussin' at a can that he was kickin'
Then I crossed the empty street
And caught the Sunday smell of someone fryin' chicken
And it took me back to somethin'
That I'd lost somehow, somewhere along the way

[Chorus]
On the Sunday morning sidewalks
Wishing, Lord, that I was stoned

Cause there's something in a Sunday
That makes a body feel alone
And there's nothin' short of dyin'
Half as lonesome as the sound
On the sleepin' city sidewalks
Sunday mornin' comin' down

[Verse 3]
In the park, I saw a daddy
With a laughing little girl who he was swingin'
And I stopped beside a Sunday school
And listened to the song that they were singin'
Then I headed back for home
And somewhere far away a lonely bell was ringin'
And it echoed through the canyons
Like the disappearing dreams of yesterday

[Chorus]
On the Sunday morning sidewalks
Wishing, Lord, that I was stoned
Cause there's something in a Sunday
Makes a body feel alone

And there's nothin' short of dyin'
Half as lonesome as the sound
On the sleepin' city sidewalk
Sunday mornin' comin' down

Monday, September 30, 2024

Indirectly Speaking

“To achieve style, begin by affecting none.”
― E.B. White, The Elements of Style

______

I should start by saying that I do not have anything against artificial intelligence (AI); I am not a Luddite. If anything, I tend to welcome new technologies into our daily lives.

On the other hand, like many people, I have an instinctive reaction to fake things, like artificial sweeteners or mustaches, and it is a negative one.

That said, one article that caught my eye recently reported that certain words and phrases are starting to pop up everywhere from social media posts to news articles to academic publications. The author suggested that this might be an indication of the increasing use of ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs).

The words in question include “delves”, “showcasing”, “underscores”“pivotal”, “realm” and “meticulous”. And oh yeah — tapestry.

It should be noted that these are all perfectly fine words when used with discretion; it is when they are overused that the problems arise.

And what are those problems? Overuse induces a cluttered feeling, confusion, awkwardness, boredom, the sense that one may be in the presence of a writer who is, shall we say it, pretentious. Or, you now might say, robotic.

Alas, those overusing AI in their writing clearly never mastered the lessons in the brief but classic volume co-authored by E.B. White and William Strunk, Jr., called “The Elements of Style.”

To quote this guide, which should be on every writer’s desk:

“Vigorous writing is concise. A sentence should contain no unnecessary words, a paragraph no unnecessary sentences, for the same reason that a drawing should have no unnecessary lines and a machine no unnecessary parts. This requires not that the writer make all his sentences short, or that he avoid all detail and treat his subjects only in outline, but that every word tell.”

Well put.

HEADLINES:

  • Nasrallah's killing reveals depth of Israel's penetration of Hezbollah (Reuters)

  • Another senior Hezbollah commander, Ali Karki, confirmed killed in Friday airstrike (The Hill)

  • Hurricane Helene leaves 'biblical devastation' in North Carolina (BBC)

  • How Helene became the near-perfect storm to bring widespread destruction across the South (AP)

  • Numbers show Vance-Walz vice-presidential debate could change the course of the election (Independent)

  • Trump escalates harsh rhetoric against immigrants, Harris (Reuters)

  • Kamala Harris for President (New Yorker)

  • Harris and Trump Are Neck and Neck in Michigan and Wisconsin, Polls Find (NYT)

  • Israel Has Called Iran’s Bluff (Atlantic)

  • The Pentagon says it wants to prevent Iran from spreading the conflict in the Middle East (NPR)

  • What I found on the secretive tropical island they don't want you to see (BBC)

  • OpenAI Is Shattering Big Tech's Promises of a Better World (Bloomberg)

  • The far right is using AI to sell Hitler to a new generation (WP)

  • Troubling Report Finds Millions Of Americans Forced To Make Ends Meet By Getting Up And Going To Work Every Day (The Onion)

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Brunch

 



Daisy






 

Sunday Reads


 (My 12-year-old grandson, Oliver, batting in Excite Stadium, home of the minor league San Jose Giants, last night.)

HEADLINES: