Unprecedented Chaos

The latest estimate by the most reliable statistical service has Clinton's chances of winning the election now at 82 percent, before any measurement of yesterday's abomination. My guess is that soon her chances will be measured at 85-90 percent by mid-week.

If Trump is not done, I'll be more surprised than I've ever been in any election cycle.

Today it is clear that many Republicans are abandoning Trump. That could soon surge into a landslide. At that point, Trump should just wuit.

His quest is over.

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Turning Point in Election

Having covered so many Presidential campaigns, I'm reluctant to make a prediction a month out. But the video released today of Trump claiming in 2005 that he could essentially sexually assault women because he was a "star" is so sickening that I strongly suspect he will not win the election on November 8.

This conversation he was having with another man is not only disgusting, it is disqualifying. We'll see what happens over the next week, including at Sunday night's debate. The polls have stayed pretty close -- Clinton is probably up ~5 points nationally and leading in most of the contested states, the swing states.

I'll revisit whether I can make a projection by Monday or so.

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Brunch Today

With Dylan and Peter and Julia and Claire, a wonderful get-together. We had a slight rain today as well. The Giants made the playoffs. All is well.