How Candidates Fail

The Clinton political machine, which is far more sophisticated in conventional terms than Trump's, has seized on two messages this weekend -- Trump's long overdue admission that his role in the "Birther" movement was based in a lie, and Trump's despicable suggestion, once again, that a gun advocate should consider shooting Clinton.

He can, and does, contest both points, but he is wrong and the Democrats are right.

In a few days, another wave of polls will come to light.

Clinton will be back up by 3-5 points nationally; Trump will have fallen behind once again in the critical swing states.

This back-and-forth is to be expected but I have never witnessed a candidate who makes so many self-inflicted wounds as does Trump. This weekend is a media disaster for him. The polls will confirm that.

The Dems have another new rhetorical weapon -- demanding that Trump release a letter from the IRS proving he is under audit, which is the excuse he uses to not release his tax forms. Is this a huge lie? Knowing what Trump says and does, I believe it is.

Having been audited six times myself, I am very familiar with the form letter that arrives, with dread, when it starts. He could easily black out the few specifics such letters contain, while proving he is indeed under audit. The IRS, by law, cannot confirm a taxpayer is under audit until the appeals process reaches what is known as Tax Court.

Given Trump's penchant for litigation, if he indeed is under audit, maybe his return will get there, which is the only time it would become public without his consent.

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Election Analysis

Hillary Clinton no longer clearly leads Donald Trump either in the popular vote or via the electoral map. The political landscape is changing and anyone analyzing it has to admit that Trump has been peaking lately.

Now the question is whether Clinton and the Democrats can regain the momentum. There still are almost two months left before the race gets decided.

If the present trend continues, Trump could well win. But I would venture a guess that the present trend will not continue.

That's because I think most of the tightening in the polls lately is a result of natural trends in an election year when no incumbent is running. The election may be up for grabs, but the electoral map continues to favor the Democrats.

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Sunday Update

Picked up Julia as she returned from a retreat with Girl Ventures, where she is on the advisory board, and drove her to Bernal. I had a little package of jelly beans for her.

She seems to be doing very well in school and is one of the top students in her senior class at Gateway. Maybe the top one.

She is applying for colleges. Her first choice would be a small private college but I hope she gets into U-C, Berkeley, where I think she would thrive. I think having a big network after college is better than a small one.

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