Money

(This essay is from two years ago in December 2021.)

“If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion.” --George Bernard Shaw

______________

The end of each year is traditionally a time for “taking stock,” which is a curious phrase if you think about it. It must have originated around the 1500s, when the most bankable property in an agricultural society was its livestock.

That was then. 

In the next few days, when I hope to reclaim my many decades of old hand-written paper journals from storage, I know I’ll discover that I wrote to myself copious notes each year’s end taking stock — which in my case did not involve cows or sheep but how much money I’d earned that year as opposed how much I’d spent.

I always tried to keep track. The difference in revenue vs. expense, of course, was my annual loss or gain. Since I did not have a stable, predictable income for most of those years, my financial outcomes varied tremendously from very very good to very very bad.

But net net I was quite good at saving money, and I never coveted stuff very much so I didn’t end up bankrupt like some of my colleagues. But I didn’t end up rich either. Few journalists do.

That brings me to what I think of the current craze for crypto-currency.

But even before that, we must deal with the subject of non-crypto cash. 

Good old cold cash almost seems like a relic in the digital age. You can’t pay for your online purchases with cash and pretty much every transaction in the physical world also seems to require one kind of plastic card or another.

As an investment, in recent years cash has been considered a hedge against downturns in a volatile market, but now inflation has returned, at least in the short term, that is no longer the case.

Holding cash reserves is a sure way to lose money right now. 

Of course, the whole idea of money is one of those human fictions that makes our civilization function as well as it does. At the same time, money or the lack of it causes unending misery as well.

It’s one big messy conundrum and crypto only makes it messier.

So what about bitcoin and the other crypto-currencies as investments? In case you’ve ignored it until now, bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, without a central bank or single administrator. It can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer network without the need for intermediaries like banks. Some investors will be getting rich as it gains acceptance.

But not you or me. I’d have to be roughly half of my current age to make investing in bitcoin a potentially wise move. And if you’re within shouting distance of my stage of life, I’d advise letting that train leave the station without you as well. The risk is too high.

Anyway, if you didn’t make money on the original web or Web 2.0, you won’t be making money on web.3 either.

Still, it’s too bad the Beatles are not still recording songs. Then they could release a crypto-version of “Money” sometime early in 2022 that would sound great.

“Bit-coin (that’s what I want.)” 

HEADLINES:

• Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine vetoes bill banning gender-affirming care for transgender minors (CNN)

• Shenna Bellows: Top Maine election official defends taking Trump off ballot (BBC)

• Civil War Gaffe Undercuts Nikki Haley’s 2024 Pitch (WSJ)

• Nikki Haley goes on Civil War autopilot, runs over her own campaign (WP)

• When Haley Dodged the Slavery Question, She Put Her Coalition at Risk (NYT)

• Thirty one dead in one of Russia's biggest missile strikes - Kyiv (Reuters)

• U.S. intelligence officials determined the Chinese spy balloon used a U.S. internet provider to communicate (NBC)

• US military space plane blasts off on secretive mission expected to last years (ABC)

• Stock market surges into 2024, shrugging off recession fears (WP)

• Migrant caravan heads toward U.S. southern border ahead of Blinken's trip to Mexico (NBC)

• ‘We Are Not Equipped to Deal With This’: Migrant Surge Overwhelms U.S. Border (NYT)

• World population grew by 75 million this year, will be over 8 billion on New Year's (KOMO)

• China population: reluctance to marry, have kids continued in 2022 as demographic woes deepened (South China Morning Post)

• Uruguay’s green power revolution: rapid shift to wind shows the world how it’s done (Guardian)

• Elon Musk’s X can’t get around California’s content moderation law, judge rules (Verge)

• It's getting harder for the public to get public information (AP)

• Mickey Mouse really enters the public domain in 2024 (Polygon)

• AI’s Rise Means Change Will Happen Even Faster (Bloomberg)

• The AI revolution’s first year: has anything changed? (Financial Times)

• As we travel into new AI world in 2024, it’s the same old internet privacy tradeoff for consumers (CNBC)

• AI's future is in the hands of the courts (Yahoo)

• The NY Times Lawsuit Against OpenAI Would Open Up The NY Times To All Sorts Of Lawsuits Should It Win (Above the Law)

• Conservatives Explain How They Survive In Woke Cities (The Onion)

 

Then and Now

I thought I knew a lot about World War Two until earlier this week. But then I started reading “Hitler’s American Gamble: Pearl Harbor and Germany’s March to Global War,” by Brendan Simms and Charlie Laderman.

This book concentrates on the five days from December 7-11, 1941, covering the time from Japan’s surprise attack on the U.S. fleet at Hawaii until Adolf Hitler’s declaration of war on the U.S.

The authors use the voluminous official papers, letters and other evidence generated by the key actors (FDR, Churchill, Mussolini, de Gaulle, Stalin, Hitler, and many more) to provide a gripping minute-by-minute global narrative of that crucial time period in world history.

They also enrich that narrative immeasurably by including diary entries from ordinary people caught up in the tragedy on all sides.

What emerges in a most vivid fashion is how deeply divided U.S. society was about whether to get into the war as Hitler’s Nazis were ravaging Europe and beyond. (By contrast, hitting back against Japan was an easily achieved bipartisan consensus.) The book also documents how anti-Semitism pervaded the isolationist wings of both political parties, including pro-Nazi sentiments, fascist sympathies and authoritarian impulses.

Does any of that sound vaguely familiar?

Although it was not my intent when I started the book to find something that could help explain America’s current political dilemmas, that indeed is what happened. That the book also is a real page-turner was a major bonus.

Having finished it now, I’m reminded that to better comprehend the present moment, it’s always best to look more carefully at our past.

HEADLINES:

• Maine’s top election official removes Trump from 2024 primary ballot (CNN)

• Haley seeks to clean up controversial remarks on Civil War (The Hill)

• Rudy Giuliani Might Not Be Saved by Bankruptcy (Newsweek)

• Risks of US electoral chaos deepen after Trump is barred from another state ballot (CNN)

• Officials are struggling to contend with the chaos at the U.S.-Mexico border as thousands of migrants arrive every day, trekking from the farthest reaches of the globe. (NYT)

• Biden administration’s Medicare drug price negotiations will face major tests in 2024 (CNBC)

• US applications for jobless benefits rise but labor market remains solid (AP)

• Skepticism Grows Over Israel’s Ability to Dismantle Hamas (NYT)

• Israeli strikes across Gaza kill dozens of Palestinians, even in largely emptied north (NPR)

• Israel warns Hezbollah and Lebanon over border fighting (BBC)

• Israel’s war in Gaza threatens to spill into Lebanon and beyond (WP)

• Drones vs. warships: How US military hardware is combatting Houthi attacks on maritime shipping (CNN)

• AP concludes at least hundreds died in floods after Ukraine dam collapse, far more than Russia said (AP)

• U.S. announces new weapons package for Ukraine, as Congress is stalled on aid bill (NPR)

• White House says meeting with Mexican president was "productive," amid record migrant crossings (CBS) 

• The eternal struggle between open source and proprietary software (TechCrunch)

• Artificial intelligence may be ‘iPhone moment’ for Microsoft in price target hike, analyst says (MarketWatch)

• 4 things ChatGPT can learn from Microsoft Copilot (XDA)

• The New York Times Has an Edge in Suit Against OpenAI (Bloomberg)

• Media and tech war over generative AI reaches new level (Financial Times)

• I test AI for a living and these are the 5 most amazing AI tools of the year (Tom’s Guide)

• What’s Next in Artificial Intelligence? (NYT)

• AI predictions for 2024: What top VCs think (Venture Beat)

• Scientists Train Full-Grown Man To Ask For Help When Needed (The Onion)

Gray Lady Takes on Chatbot

 One of the top stories this week as reported by the Wall Street Journal and NPR is about the New York Times lawsuit against Microsoft and OpenAI for copyright infringement.

The issue here is how the current generation of AI products like ChatGPT have been trained on published material on the open web. Quoting the Journal:

"Tech companies building generative-AI tools have generally argued that 
content available on the open internet can be used to train their 
technologies under a legal provision called “fair use,” which allows for 
copyrighted material to be used without permission in certain 
circumstances.

"In its suit, the Times said the fair use argument shouldn’t apply 
because the AI tools can serve up, almost verbatim, large chunks of text 
from Times news articles,

"The Times suit raises the prospect of a fissure in the publishing 
world—if some major outlets follow the Times in pursuing legal action, 
while others negotiate for compensation from OpenAI, Microsoft and 
Google, which is developing its own AI efforts."

This the kind of legal case that could ultimately determine not only the future of generative AI but who benefits most — the big tech companies that have dominated the web up until now or new startups — plus what role content creators like journalists and media companies play in that process.

OTHER HEADLINES:

• The US is no country for old men — Elderly Americans struggle to survive in a country that seeks to extract profit from them till the very end. (Al Jazeera)

• Nearly Two Million Crowd Into Gaza’s South as Fighting Intensifies (NYT)

• Israel expanding ground offensive into central Gaza refugee camps (BBC)

• On foot and by donkey cart, thousands flee widening Israeli assault in central Gaza (AP)

• U.S. forces destroy swarm of drones and missiles launched by Houthis (Axios)

• Jack Smith asks judge to bar Trump from making ‘political attacks’ in 2020 election trial (The Hill)

• Trump Is Testing the Bounds of Presidential Immunity—and Losing (Daily Beast)

• A Trump Conviction Could Cost Him Enough Voters to Tip the Election (NYT)

• “Terrifying”: Republicans warn court that Trump’s “dangerous argument” opens door to more crimes (Salon)

• FBI investigate threats against Colorado judges who ruled against Donald Trump (BBC)

• As Haley climbs in the polls, she confronts attacks criticized as sexist (WP)

• X Is Elon Musk’s Lonely Party Now (Atlantic)

• College Football Playoff 2023 prediction: Why the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines will win first title since 1997 (CBS)

• Honestly, I love when AI hallucinates (WP)

• Bill Gates predicts a 'massive technology boom' from AI coming soon (ZDNet)

• Texas Cancels School Over Concerns Extreme Heat Not Safe Environment For Shootings (The Onion)

Wednesday News

 Note: I’m taking a short break from publishing daily essays.

HEADLINES:

• Michigan Supreme Court rejects ‘insurrectionist ban’ case and keeps Trump on 2024 primary ballot (CNN)

• The Supreme Court’s refusal to expedite Trump’s immunity claim could make or break the 2024 election  (The Hill)

• Alexei Navalny: 'Don't worry about me!' Putin critic says from Arctic prison (BBC)

• In a scorching year, scientists wonder if climate change is speeding up (WP)

• Pakistan deported Afghans waiting for US resettlement (Reuters)

• COVID-19 variant JN.1 is now the leading cause of infections in the US. (ABC)

• Kari Lake is in deep, deep trouble with judge's refusal to dismiss defamation lawsuit (AZCentral)

• Is pot legal now? Why marijuana is both legal and illegal in US, despite Biden pardons. (USA Today)

• Missing Malaysian flight MH370 could be found in ‘days’ with new search, claim experts (South China Morning Post)

• Netanyahu Visits Gaza as Palestinians Mourn an Attack That Officials Say Killed Dozens (NYT)

• U.S. strikes militia groups in Iraq; pope calls for end to war (WP)

• It's a bird, it’s a plane — it's a flying firehose robot prototype called the 'Dragon Firefighter' (CTVNews)

• A First Look at Matic, the Reengineered Robot Vacuum (Wired)

• OpenAI investor Vinod Khosla predicts AI will deflate the economy over the next 25 years (Business Insider)

• The 5 AI stories I’m waiting for in 2024 (VentureBeat)

• Elon Musk Announces He’s Recruiting Volunteers For Dangerous One-Way Mission In Self-Driving Cybertruck (The Onion)

Tuesday Links

 HEADLINES:

• Biden orders strike on Iranian-aligned group after 3 US troops injured in drone attack in Iraq (ABC)

• Israeli airstrike kills more than 100 people in central Gaza refugee camp (PBS)

• Has the US-led Red Sea force calmed shippers amid Houthi attacks? (Al Jazeera)

• Hoping for Peace With Houthis, Saudis Keep Low Profile in Red Sea Conflict (NYT)

• Kremlin opposition leader Alexey Navalny moved to Arctic penal colony but doing well, spokesperson says (CBS)

• Bad air forces Pakistan to shut schools and markets and seed the clouds (WP)

• Ukraine secures desperately needed funds from World Bank (Al Jazeera)

• What Went Wrong for Ron DeSantis in 2023 (NYT)

• Americans are lonely and it’s killing them. How the US can combat this new epidemic. (USA Today)

• The Hollywood Strikes Stopped AI From Taking Your Job. But for How Long? (Wired)

• Sam Altman’s Knack for Dodging Bullets—With a Little Help From Bigshot Friends (WSJ)

• World's first restaurant completely run by robots and AI is officially ready for launch (Unilad)

• Kids Getting A Little Old To Still Believe In Innate Charitable Goodness Of Humans (The Onion)

Christmas 2023

 

Snowflake

One distinct memory from my childhood is from the days leading up to Christmas, always a magical time.

It was snowing outside, the flurries rushing this way and that, with no particular purpose to any of their movements.

It was cold out there, but I was inside, cozy and warm. I had my nose pressed up against the window, looking out. 

Someone had told me that every snowflake was unique — all hundred thousand million billion gazillion of them.

As I was thinking about that, wondering how it could possibly be true, or even how anyone could be sure about it, one particular snowflake crashed into the other side of the window, and melted away right before my eyes.

I had watched it die. It was one of a kind and the last thing it had seen before dying was me. In death it turned into a drop of water and slid down the outside of the glass.

We’d shared that moment together. Suddenly I felt like the window was really a mirror.

Merry Christmas everybody.

HEADLINES:

• Fighting rages in northern Gaza after U.N. stops short of ceasefire call (Reuters)

• A World Leader on Ukraine, the U.S. Is Now Isolated Over Gaza (NYT)

• Iran rejects US claims it is ‘deeply involved’ in Houthi attacks in Red Sea (Al Jazeera)

• Attacks on freight ships in the Red Sea could increase inflation. (ABC)

• Revealed: how US residents are funding illegal settlements in the West Bank (Guardian)

• India drone strike: Cargo ship attacked off Gujarat coast (BBC)

• The secret U.S. effort to track, hide and surveil the Chinese spy balloon (NBC)

• Hunter Biden Text Cited in Impeachment Inquiry Is Not What G.O.P. Suggests (NYT)

• Donald Trump 'Could Be Finished' Within Matter of Days (Newsweek)

• Wisconsin Supreme Court overturns GOP-favored legislative maps (WP)

• The Internet Isn't Dead. It's Saturday Night Live (Wired)

• Twitter violated contract by failing to pay millions in bonuses, U.S. judge rules (CNBC)

• SpaceX launches Falcon 9 first-stage booster on record-breaking 19th flight (SpaceflightNow)

• Flying Dragon Bot Spouts Water To Fight Fires Too Dangerous for Humans (Newsweek)

• Cory Doctorow: What Kind of Bubble is AI? (Locus)

• “King of the cannibals”: How Sam Altman took over Silicon Valley (WP)

• Orcas Explain Why They Are Attacking Boats (The Onion)