This November

I hate polls. But they are the best thing we have to judge what is going to happen on Election Day two-and-a-half weeks from now.

The best way to consume polls, IMHO, is to follow Nate Silver’s 538 site. As the most sophisticated polling service available to the general public, it approximates the accuracy of the in-house polls conducted by the political parties.

And Silver is out with an analysis confirming the pattern I have been noticing all summer: That after the Supreme Court decision nullifying Roe v. Wade, the Democrats’ chances of controlling the Senate rose sharply, peaking at 71 percent last month.

But since then they have been falling steadily, to the point now where they rest at only 56 percent. Silver labels this a virtual “toss-up.”

Meanwhile, control of the House is virtually a foregone conclusion: The GOP’s chances there are a prohibitive 81 percent.

Why does any of this matter? The Dems will still control the White House, at least until the next election in 2024, and many Americans think a split government is fine.

Well, the problem is the Republican Party has way too many candidates who are election deniers — those who say they believe the claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump.

There is and never has been any evidence that the election was stolen. If anything, Trump tried to steal it by pressuring local officials in multiple states to decertify the results. . Rewarding those Republicans for misleading the public would be a dangerous move that ultimately could threaten our democracy.

So Silver’s article is a sobering piece of evidence that we, as a society, are now in deep trouble. I, for one, dread the results of the Nov. 8th midterm elections.

NEWSLINKS:

• Why I'm Telling My Friends That The Senate Is A Toss-Up (Nate Silver/538)

• Steve Bannon Sentenced To Four Months In Prison For Contempt Of Congress (MSNBC)

• Steve Bannon sentencing: Jail term shows January 6 risks for Trump (BBC)

• The decider: Jill Biden's unparalleled influence and impact on the president (NBC)

• A bad sign for Democrats in critical Nevada Senate race (Politico)

• Very bad news for Democrats in Senate and House races.Their chances in Senate fall to only 56% and the GOP’s chances in the House rise to 81%. (538)

• Miami judge dismisses voter fraud case trumpeted by DeSantis (Guardian)

• Trump says 15 Mar-a-Lago records, including clemency requests, are his (CNN)

• Jan. 6 panel issues subpoena to Trump, demanding he testify (AP)

• Lindsey Graham ordered to appear before Georgia grand jury probing 2020 election (ABC)

• Truss Defied the Markets, and They Ruthlessly Sealed Her Fate (NYT)

• Race for British prime minister is on (again) after Liz Truss quits (WP)

• Race to be next UK PM begins as momentum grows behind Boris Johnson (Reuters)

• Putin's martial law orders signal changes to Russian life may only just be starting (NBC)

• Russian threats revive old nuclear fears in central Europe (AP)

• Mass drone attacks in Ukraine foreshadow the ‘future of warfare’ (Al Jazeera)

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on the West to warn Russia not to blow up a huge dam that would flood a swath of southern Ukraine, as his forces prepare to push Moscow's troops from Kherson in one of the war's most important battles. (Reuters)

• Pakistan: Growing Militant Attacks Linked to Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan (VoA)

• Afghanistan human rights and humanitarian crisis continues, urgent action necessary, says UN expert (UN)

• Who Leaves, Who Stays — What happened when one Afghan family was forced to make a life-altering decision with no time to think (Atlantic)

• How Taiwan’s ‘Adorable’ and Ambitious Diplomacy Aims to Keep the Island Safe (NYT)

• U.S. budget deficit cut in half for biggest decrease ever amid Covid spending declines (CNBC)

• Musk said he will cut nearly 75 percent of Twitter’s staff if he takes control (WP)

• Courts Reject Challenges to Biden Plan on Student Debt (NYT)

• The world's top automakers are planning to spend nearly $1.2 trillion through 2030 to develop and produce millions of electric vehicles, along with the batteries and raw materials to support that production. (Reuters)

• Police investigating after landscapers find car buried decades ago in yard of multimillion-dollar California home (CBS)

• Maryland Will Review 100 Police Death Cases for Signs of Bias (NYT)

• Panthers trading star Christian McCaffrey to 49ers (ESPN)

• World's oldest complete star map, lost for millennia, found inside medieval manuscript (LiveScience)

• Greek monastery manuscripts tell new story of Ottoman rule (NPR)

• Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon, were the two major cities with the worst air quality in the world for the second day in a row Thursday due to wildfires burning in the Pacific Northwest. [HuffPost]

• Daniel Smith, one of the last children of enslaved Americans, dies at 90 (WP)

• Man Needs To Do Research On Which State He Lives In Before Deciding On Candidates He Can Vote For (The Onion)

 

Bureaucratic Blues

The series of letters and email messages I received earlier this week qualified as urgent. “Your Medicare payment is overdue!” 

I figured that it was untrue but I finally called the customer service number for United Health Care on Wednesday just to make sure.

After a delay I was put through to a friendly lady with an Indian accent. I’m afraid I was rather grumpy with her initially, because I resented this intrusion on my daily routine when it probably was going to turn out to be entirely unnecessary.

After all, I have had my Medicare expense deducted from my social security check on an automated basis for years.

After a series of delays, while I was placed on hold, the lady returned to cheerfully inform me it was all a misunderstanding. She said that when the routine monthly mailing from the Social Security Administration somehow gets delayed a bit, the health care provider automatically issues a past due reminder, or in my case, a whole slew of reminders.

“You have nothing to worry about, David. ( liked the way she pronounced my name.) Please just ignore such warnings in the future.” 

My mood had improved so I thanked her graciously and hung up the phone.

But this incident angers me and this is why: Millions of American seniors rely on Social Security and Medicare to get by each month and to receive warnings that they owe money when they don’t triggers an understandable stress reaction. And many of them are not in an optimal situation mentally, so they might panic and try to pay the bill.

It is unfair and completely unnecessary. What is particularly obnoxious is one of the warning letters came from AARP, the retirement organization through which I purchased my Medicare coverage. 

AARP is supposed to help seniors, advocate for us, and defend us — not simply replicate the government’s inefficiencies. Perhaps a class-action attorney should hold AARP accountable.

If you know anyone getting such letters advise them that they probably are false warnings, but they can double-check by calling the customer service number. 

Today brought yet another email message warning me that my Medicare payment is overdue.

I cursed as I deleted it.

NOTE: Two of my earlier pieces on Medicare/Social Security inefficiency:

How Governments Make Enemies

Work the System

NEWSLINKS:

• Truss’s Exit Leaves Tories at the Last Chance Saloon (Bloomberg)

• After Truss, it’s the club v the mob – the Tories’ last chance before Britain demands an election (Guardian)

• A guide to the chaos after Liz Truss’ resignation as U.K. prime minister (WP)

• Bread Prices Skyrocket as Inflation Grips Europe (NYT)

• Russia ramps up relocation of civilians in Kherson. It may soon lose one of the biggest prizes of its war (CNN)

• As temperatures drop heading into winter, the risk of a radiation accident is rising, the head of Ukraine’s state nuclear company told HuffPost's Alexander C. Kaufman. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared martial law in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow annexed and has given additional emergency powers to the heads of all regions of Russia. [HuffPost]

• Ukrainians conserved electricity and some went without running water to try to ease pressure on the grid and give engineers a chance to rebuild infrastructure destroyed by Russian strikes as Kyiv's forces advanced towards the city of Kherson. (Reuters)

• Judge: Trump Knew Voter Fraud Claims Were False (MSNBC)

• Trump questioned in E. Jean Carroll defamation lawsuit. What we know about the case. (USA Today)

• Donald Trump's family company is set to face a criminal trial on tax fraud charges in New York starting next week that could trigger fines and further complicate the real estate firm's ability to do business as the former U.S. president's legal woes mount. (Reuters)

• Republicans who support abortion rights are fighting for their political future (Politico)

• Election deniers could make deep changes to Arizona voting (AP)

• Has Polling Broken Politics? (NYT)

• Dems’ chances are falling rapidly in the midterms (538)

• Biden, Newsom and the pain at the pump (Politico)

• Judicial elections in Illinois, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina and Ohio are more important than ever, with abortion, voting rights and gerrymandering at stake. In each court, one political party or ideological bloc holds a one-vote majority on the most pressing issues. These judicial majorities are increasingly significant since the U.S. Supreme Court began devolving constitutional issues from federal courts to state courts. [HuffPost]

• College Enrollment Declines Again Though Online Schools, HBCUs See Increases (WSJ)

• Students, Legal Scholars Push California Universities to Hire Undocumented Students (NYT)

• What’s Really Going On With the Crime Rate? (Atlantic)

• Fleeing Xi’s China, journalist makes fresh start abroad (AP)

• Afghanistan: Women Protesters Detail Taliban Abuse (HRW)

• Afghanistan: One year under Taliban rule (Daily Sabah)

• Afghan couple accuse US Marine of abducting their baby (AP)

• Oceans are warming faster than ever. The top mile or so of oceans around the world has been heating up since the 1950s, a new study found. But now it’s accelerating and reaching greater depths. (WP)

• Scientists Transformed Pure Water Into a Metal, And There's Footage (ScienceAlert)

• Asteroid that wiped out dinosaurs triggered ‘megatsunami,’ with mile-high waves (WP)

• Preserving a Palestinian Identity in the Kitchen — With many Palestinians fearful that their cuisine is being lost, kitchen practices handed down by family matriarchs for generations are still being passed along. (NYT)

• What to know about Netflix’s password-sharing crackdown starting in early 2023 (WP)

• A research organization that boasts the largest collection of online records related to John F. Kennedy’s assassination is suing President Joe Biden and the National Archives over files about the former president’s 1963 killing. The so-called JFK Records Act mandated the full release of the files by 2017, but the Mary Ferrell Foundation says thousands of documents remain secret. [HuffPost]

• Sincere Email To Coworker Drafted, Reconsidered, Deleted (The Onion)

 

One Boy's New York

 (Over the years on business trips, I sometimes took one or more of my kids with me. This was one of those occasions.)

Do you know how many taxis you might pass during a trip from W. 78th & Central Park, say, to E. 28th & Madison Avenue? I didn't either, but my informant informs me that the answer is 214.

From the Upper East Side, and the Met, acrosss the park to the Museum of Natural History to Murray Hill, and back up to Times Square, and the Lego-sculptures at 44th & Broadway, in and out of delis, cabs, the subway, coffee shops, up and down elevators in our classic old hotel, we enjoyed a warming trend in the City today.

I got to see the City through the eyes of my ten-year-old partner:

1. "I know where we are, because I recognize that newsstand. It's the one with all of that inappropriate content."

2. "The only thing that scares me about New York is the cockroaches."
   (me: 'Have you seen any cockroaches?' him: 'Well, no, but they still scare me.')
   

3. "The thing about this place is they even charge you for a glass of water here. Also, the prices seem to be rising. Yesterday I bought a donut and it cost one dollar. Today, I bought another donut in the same deli and it cost $1.60."
   

4. "This is a great town for pigeons." (Translation: This is a great town.)
   

5. "This is a good place for Sidewalk Images , because there are lots of people and they throw stuff away, like at home ( San Francisco)."
   

6. "But Silicon Valley isn't a good place at all for Sidewalk Images. It doesn't seem like anybody lives there, it's just filled by people working on computers and they never throw away any trash."
   

7. "Wow, look at all of those people. You're not going to see that many people anywhere but in New York."
   

8. "Everybody wonders why I always wear this hat. Well, you lose 70% of your body heat through your head, so that's one good reason. But I also wear it in summer, when it's hot."

9. "I guess I'm one of those people who likes to be hot because I definitely don't like to be cold."

10. “I like all of your friends here because they are brilliant.”

Photo by Dylan 

(This excerpt is from an essay I wrote in 2007.)

NEWSLINKS:

• Liz Truss resigns as UK prime minister (CNN)

• McCarthy: No 'blank check' for Ukraine if GOP wins majority (Yahoo)

• Pence pushes back: US must provide Ukraine with ‘resources to defend themselves’ (The Hill)

• A senior Ukrainian official accused Russia of organizing a "propaganda show" in occupied Kherson after Russian-installed officials said they were preparing to defend the city from imminent Ukrainian attack and urged civilians to flee. (Reuters)

• Iran says ready to talk to Ukraine on claims of arming Russia (Al Jazeera)

• Russian strikes have caused massive blackouts in Ukraine. 30% of the country’s power stations have been destroyed since Oct. 10, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday, part of a new Russian strategy. (WP)

• Russian Barrage Targets Power, Water and Heat for Ukraine’s Civilians (NYT)

• Trump spoke about his relationships with world leaders in taped interviews with journalist Bob Woodward, telling the veteran reporter he preferred world leaders “the tougher and meaner they are.” “I like Putin. Our relationship should be a very good one," Trump said in January 2020. [HuffPost]

• Primary source for Trump-Russia dossier acquitted, handing special counsel Durham another trial loss (CNN)

• An ex-member of the extremist Oath Keepers group said he was prepared to take up arms to keep former President Donald Trump in office on Jan. 6. Jason Dolan agreed to cooperate with prosecutors and testified in the ongoing seditious conspiracy trial of five members of the Oath Keepers. [HuffPost]

• Biden to announce U.S. oil reserve release to prevent price spikes (Reuters)

• You can keep more money from the IRS next year, thanks to inflation (WP)

• UK inflation accelerates to 40-year high as food prices rise (AP)

• VIDEO: Biden Vows to Codify Abortion Rights if Democrats Win Midterms(NYT)

• Republican Midterm Prospects Brighten in Closing Weeks of Election (WSJ)

• A slate of races now lean Republican in our latest forecast update (Politico)

• Dems only have a 62% chance of winning the Senate now. It was over 70%. Republicans have a much larger (75%) chance of winning the House. (538)

• Police body camera footage obtained by a Florida newspaper shows how the arrests of several residents for alleged voter fraud two months ago baffled both police and those who were rounded up. "I’ve never seen these charges before in my entire life," said one of the officers on the scene. “Why would you all let me vote if I wasn’t able to vote?” asked one perplexed suspect. In August, Gov. Ron DeSantis announced the arrests of 20 people, grossly overstating the impact of election fraud in the U.S. [HuffPost]

• Iranian climber who competed without hijab welcomed by crowds in Tehran (WP)

• South Korean and American troops practiced building floating bridges to ferry tanks and other armored vehicles across rivers, part of a larger joint military exercise that has angered North Korea. (Reuters)

• As Covid Hit, Washington Officials Traded Stocks With Exquisite Timing (WSJ)

• XBB, BQ.1.1, BA.2.75.2 — a variant swarm could fuel a winter surge (WP)

• A rare but dangerous flesh-eating bacteria is infecting Florida residents (NPR)

• Ancient DNA gives rare snapshot of Neanderthal family ties (AP)

• The Black Death is still affecting the human immune system (CNN)

• Meghan Markle Lets Her Guard Down: On Grieving Queen Elizabeth, Producing With Harry and Returning to Hollywood (Variety)

• Food Banks Begin Accepting Donations From Homosexuals (The Onion)