How Pandemics End

Today again the top story is that Merck has developed a possible treatment for Covid-19. The experimental drug, molnupiravir, apparently keeps the virus from replicating.

The pill, which is under FDA review, would be available for patients to take at home, keeping the disease under control and avoiding hospitalization.

It appears to work best when administered soon after a patient is diagnosed and may not be as effective as monoclonal antibodies, but those require a patient to be hospitalized and receive an intravenous transfusion.

So this is how the pandemic may end, similar to how another terrible pandemic, AIDS, was brought under control by similar antiviral drugs.

If so, the toll will still have been terrible -- over 5 million dead globally with 2,000 a day still dying here in the highly-vaccinated U.S.

***

For some reason I love the following story from Reuters: "Old Irish Goats Protect Dublin Hills From Wildfires." 

According to the piece, a "bearded, indigenous breed near extinction love to eat the highly flammable vegetation and the local council hopes grazing by a herd of 25 will leave the north Dublin suburb of Howth less prone to natural wildfires."

***

THE HEADLINES:

* The pill that could change the Covid fight (Politico)

* U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Surpasses 700,000 Despite Wide Availability of Vaccines (NYT)

* Koch-backed group fuels opposition to school mask mandates, leaked letter shows (WP)

* Inflation Warning Signs Flash Red, Posing Challenge for Washington (NYT)

* Global COVID-19 deaths hit 5 million as Delta variant sweeps the world (Reuters)

* South Pole posts most severe cold season on record, a surprise in a warming world (WP)

* In Portugal, There Is Virtually No One Left to Vaccinate (NYT)

* Merck COVID-19 pill success slams Moderna shares, shakes up healthcare sector (Reuters)

* The Colorado River Is in Crisis. The Walton Family Is Pushing a Solution.-- The first-ever official shortage on the Colorado River has intensified a debate over how to provide water for 40 million people across the Southwest and irrigate fields of thirsty crops. No voice is more influential than that of the Walton family, billionaire heirs to the Walmart fortune. (WSJ)

* As coronavirus cases mount and vaccine mandates spread, holdouts plague police and fire departments (WP)

* California to Mandate Covid-19 Vaccines for All Students as Soon as Next Fall (NYT)

* Apple Doesn’t Make Videogames. But It’s the Hottest Player in Gaming.--CEO Tim Cook quietly turned the iPhone company into a superpower in the videogame business. Now he’s fighting rivals in a multiplayer universe. (WSJ)

* Alaska’s vanishing salmon push Yukon River tribes to brink (AP)

* Afghan girls stuck at home, waiting for Taliban plan to re-open schools (Reuters)

* Women’s March protesters rally across U.S. to protect Roe v. Wade (WP

* Millions of Indian kids have been out of school for 18 months. The break threatens decades of progress. (WP)

* The Rolling Stones release previously unheard 1979 song (Reuters)

* China Unable To Recruit Hackers Fast Enough To Keep Up With Vulnerabilities In U.S. Security Systems (The Onion)

The Worm Turns: Covid

The drugmaker Merck reports that it has developed an experimental pill that can successfully treat people with Covid. The evidence is preliminary but signals the possible beginning of the permanent end of the pandemic.

All this year we have been monitoring the dance between the virus as it mutates, the vaccines as they age, and the ongoing struggle between those steadfastly refusing to vaccinate and the rest of us.

For some time, public health officials have accurately predicted that the pharmaceutical industry will be able to stay one step ahead of the mutating coronavirus by creating what you might call a mutating vaccine.

The disease changes, the protection against it adapts.

But the next step in the dance has to be proactive, not reactive. And that is what the news from Merck connotes.

Think back on the AIDS crisis and how after a terrifying beginning when nearly all cases seemed to be fatal, the pharmaceutical industry was able to develop treatments that eventually reduced HIV to a controllable disease.

I'm not a medical expert but that seems to be where we are headed with Covid-19.

And while I've got your attention, get the damn flu shot this winter!

***

THE HEADLINES:

* As Need in Afghanistan Grows Dire, Aid Groups Plead for Help -- Health clinics are closing. Temperatures are dipping. Prices are rising. Food and money are scarce. A calamity looms, humanitarian groups warn. (NYT)

* Drugmaker Merck said Friday that its experimental COVID-19 pill reduced hospitalizations and deaths by half in people recently infected with the coronavirus, potentially a leap forward in the global fight against the pandemic. (AP)

* Merck Pill Intended to Treat Covid-19 Succeeds in Key Study (WSJ)

* Gunmaker Smith & Wesson to relocate from Mass. as state considers ban on making assault weapons (WP)

* China’s Power Shortfalls Begin to Ripple Around the World (WSJ)

* More Than Half of Police Killings Are Mislabeled, New Study Says (NYT)

* Who Will Win the Space Tourism Race? (WSJ)

* VIDEO: Lawmakers Blast Facebook Over Its Effect on Children (AP)

* Citizen Journalist Who Documented Covid-19 in Wuhan Resurfaces After 600 Days (WSJ)

* Democrats' spending bill includes plan to get free health care to uninsured Americans (NPR)

* Infowars host Alex Jones, who has promoted the lie that the Sandy Hook elementary school massacre was faked, lost two lawsuits filed against him by victims' relatives after he failed to comply with orders to hand over documents. The judge excoriated Jones and ordered default judgements against him because “an escalating series of judicial admonishments, monetary penalties, and non-dispositive sanctions have all been ineffective at deterring the abuse.” [HuffPost]

* 5 Midwestern governors agree to create a network to charge electric vehicles (NPR)

* Australia to End Travel Ban in Pivot to Living With Covid-19 (WSJ)

* Last year, protesters tore down a controversial statue of Spanish missionary Junipero Serra at the state capitol in Sacramento. New legislation makes way for a monument to Native people in its place. (NPR)

* California recently became the first state to offer free breakfast and lunch to all schoolchildren. (Cal Today)

* Fires in the Brazilian Amazon retreat in September (Reuters)

* Breaking: All Of World’s Problems Solved Overnight While You Were Sleeping (The Onion)

Letter From Helmand.10: "Four Women Lost in the Statistics"

[NOTE: This is the tenth in a series of letters from an Afghan friend whose identity shall remain confidential. He writes about the situation in his country since the Taliban assumed power in August.]

Dear David:

This is a tale of four Afghan women, who once lived in relative freedom but now are anything but free. It is a story about education, independence, and choices – or lack thereof.

Bahar and Sahar grew up in a rural district of Daykondi Province. They were classmates, with two very different ideas about education and opportunity. Bahar went to school every day with great enthusiasm. She dreamed that one day she would graduate from college, earn her own money, and have financial independence. She had many suitors during school days, but never accepted one, for she knew that if she were to get married, she could forget about her goals. 

Her classmate Sahar didn't have any interest in continuing her education, so she married the first suitor who came along, an Australian Afghan. After two years, her husband was able to take her to Australia. Now they have two children and a successful marriage. Sahar is a domestic worker. 

Now that the Taliban are in power, Bahar has her education but is no longer allowed to work. Sahar escaped Afghanistan, but given her lack of education will likely never have meaningful employment. Who’s better off?

Maryam, another girl from Bamiyan, finished high school and went to Kabul to prepare for Konkor (a qualifying test to be admitted to university). She studied for two years for the test. During this time, she was far away from her family. She lived in a room where there was no cooler in the summer nor heater in the winter. She studied day and night on little sleep. This year she passed the test, scoring high enough to get into her first choice college. But now that Afghanistan has been taken over by the Taliban, her efforts may have been in vain.

Beheshta Arghand, an anchor for TOLOnews who fled to a European country, told the BBC: “My message to the Taliban: you take all of the country, but one day, you know, you lost the generation. They are like a diamond. They shine. You lost a powerful generation. I never thought of leaving my country. I lost everything. From my childhood up until now, I struggled for my dream, but now it's become zero. I really miss my job. I love my job." 

Through tears, she says: "I just hope one day, I will go back."

Billions of dollars in aid flowed into Afghanistan during the past two decades for state-building, redevelopment, education development, human rights, etc. Even though half of these funds were embezzled and transferred abroad, there was real progress in education. Under Taliban rule in 2001, school attendance among girls was zero. During the American intervention, the situation improved dramatically, and  millions of girls and women were educated. Although there is no accurate figure, according to UNICEF and the Afghan government, by 2011 as many as 66 percent of girls aged 12-15 were able to attend school. 

Women and ethnic minorities such as Hazara made the most of this opportunity. The women in Kabul and other cities like Mazar, Herat, Bamiyan, and Daykondi and who can speak Persian enjoyed even more freedom. For the last 20 years, they had the right to study, work and choose their own husbands.

The condition of women's life in Helmand and its rural district is a true allegory of the Taliban. Women here are deprived of their fundamental rights. The girls can no longer even attend secondary school. 

Helmand Pashtun men believe that if women are given freedom, they will turn their backs on them, and they will no longer be able to rule over them. A woman is considered the property of the man. It is considered shameful for men to even mention the names of sisters, mothers and wives. In fact, if you directly ask the name of his sister or mother or wife, you have uttered a great insult. When you see your best friend on the side of the road and he is with his wife, he does not acknowledge you and you do not acknowledge them.

Women do not have the right to choose a husband. Fathers choose husbands for their daughters. If the father gives the daughter to an old man as a third wife, the daughter has no right to protest, and if she protests, she will be beaten. The girl cannot see or contact her husband until after the wedding. There is no divorce. If a woman’s husband dies when she is still young, she is forced to marry her brother-in-law. No matter how much a husband beats his wife, she has no choice but to endure it. Just as Muslims consider this misery to be the choice and wisdom of God, so women here consider this oppression to be the wisdom of God and their destiny.

The primitive culture in Helmand is a model the Taliban wish to replicate in civilized cities such as Kabul, Mazar, Bamyan, and throughout Afghanistan. Beheshta Arghand, the journalist now living in exile, had it right: we have lost a powerful generation.

***

THE HEADLINES:

NOTE: There are at least two pieces of happier news today. The Daintree, which is the world's oldest tropical rainforest, has been "given" back to its Aboriginal caretakers in Australia. And the incomparable Dolly Parton has given her blessing to Lil Nas X's version of her classic song "Jolene."

* Afghans bury paintings and hide books out of fear of Taliban crackdown on arts and culture (WP)

* Afghan girls' soccer squad find new home in Ronaldo's Portugal (Reuters)

* Treasury Secretary Yellen says debt ceiling should be permanently abolished (WP)

* Biden vaccine mandate splits US on party lines: AP-NORC poll (AP)

* From chips to ships, shortages are making inflation stick (Reuters)

* Inside America’s broken supply chain -- The global supply chain that brings toys, clothing, electronics and furniture from Asia to the United States each year is clogged, an enduring impact of the pandemic that is unlikely to ease soon. (WP)

* Why Is Every Young Person in America Watching ‘The Sopranos’? -- The show’s new audience is also seeing something different in it: a parable about a country in terminal decline.  (NYT) 

* It’s flu vaccine time, even if you’ve had your COVID shots (AP)

*  Democrats promised to slash drug prices. Now internal clashes are standing in the way. (WP)

* La Palma Volcano Lava Hits Ocean, Creating a Pyramid and Toxic Gas Release (NYT)

* CDC says it’s ‘urgent’ pregnant women get vaccinated (WP)

* Woman who survived 1918 flu, world war succumbs to COVID (AP)

* Clinton Young, who was sentenced to death in 2003 on charges of murdering two people, has had his conviction overturned by an appeals court because the prosecutor in his case, it turned out, was also on the payroll of the judge who presided over it. Young has always insisted he is innocent and he may now have another chance to prove it. [HuffPost]

* A Trump lawyer wrote an instruction manual for a coup. Why haven’t you seen it on the news? (WP)

* Australia's Daintree — the world's oldest tropical rainforest — has been handed back to Aboriginal owners. (BBC)

* Country music legend Dolly Parton gave a heartfelt endorsement to singer Lil Nas X on Wednesday for his recent cover of her hit song “Jolene,” which he performed for BBC Radio One’s Live Lounge. “I was so excited when someone told me that Lil Nas X had done my song “Jolene”. I had to find it and listen to it immediately…and it’s really, really good,” she wrote on Instagram. “Of course, I love him anyway. I was surprised and I’m honored and flattered. I hope he does good for both of us. Thank you.” (HuffPost)

*  Ron Elliott, an underwater filmmaker, describes what he has learned from his encounters with sharks off the coast of San Francisco. (Cal Today)

* San Jose has banned flavored tobacco products, making it the largest city in the state to do so. (NBC)

* How tropical storms and hurricanes have hit U.S. shores with unparalleled frequency (WP)

* The NBC television network unveiled its new fall lineup of programs that will be canceled almost immediately after airing. (The Onion)

***

"Jolene"

Dolly Parton

Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene
I'm begging of you please don't take my man
Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene
Please don't take him just because you can

Your beauty is beyond compare
With flaming locks of auburn hair
With ivory skin and eyes of emerald green
Your smile is like a breath of spring
Your voice is soft like summer rain
And I cannot compete with you
Jolene

He talks about you in his sleep
And there's nothing I can do to keep
From crying when he calls your name
Jolene

And I can easily understand
How you could easily take my man
But you don't know what he means to me
Jolene

Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene
I'm begging of you please don't take my man
Jolene, Jolene, Jolene, Jolene
Please don't take him just because you can

You could have your choice of men
But I could never love again
He's the only one for me
Jolene

I had to have this talk with you
My happiness depends on you
And whatever you decide to do
Jolene

Going There

"The park near here is dominated by large trees and a meadow where kids play soccer and people throw balls for their dogs to retrieve. At the far side of the meadow, two paths diverge -- one up and out of the woods, one down into a darker, thicker forest. One of these days I'm going to take the latter path with a friend."

__________________________

It's been a while since I raised the dark specter of Trump's political return but today is the time to do so. The former President's shadow once again hangs over the U.S. political landscape.

He's preparing what appears to be another run for office in 2024. If he does that, he would re-enter a nation even further split for-and-against him than the toxic environment in 2020, when he lost resoundingly to Joe Biden.

In the meantime, his acolytes have re-engineered the process by which electors will be selected in future elections at the local level in several key states. Those are the states that swung from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.

When you evacuate these particular districts, they continue to be closely divided between Democrats and Republicans. Gerrymandering by both sides may have an impact, but procedural corruption at the local level is a far greater threat to our democracy.

Stated plainly, Trump brings the worst out of the GOP -- white fear at the growing racial, gender, cultural and intellectual diversity of the United States. 

If Trump is going to really do this thing -- run again -- our country will need every ounce of its patriotic resilience to withstand the threat of a return to power from a man who opposes what is best in our society and who also would be dictator.

He was too inexperienced and naive the last time around to accomplish his goal, but that is no longer the case.

***

I wrote the passage at the top of this post a month ago. It was the beginning of an essay about choices and how we all face them all of the time. It was, I think, one of my best essays. It also was literally about two actual paths, with the darker one leading deeper down into the forest.

Yesterday I revisited that park, this time not alone but with a friend and we took that deeper path. We made the right choice. It was silent, beautiful and welcoming.

***

THE HEADLINES:

* As Trump hints at comeback, democracy advocates fear a ‘worst-case scenario’ -- As Donald Trump looks and sounds increasingly as if he intends to mount a presidential campaign rerun, Democrats and democracy experts are grappling with what such a campaign — and potential second presidency — would mean for the country. (WP)

* We Underestimated Trump Before. It Didn’t Go Well. -- The former president continues to pose a threat because our political imagination fails us. (NYT)

* Former President Donald Trump's secret visit to Walter Reed in 2019 appeared to be for a routine colonoscopy, according to Stephanie Grisham, Trump's former press secretary and first lady Melania Trump's chief of staff. CNN's Kate Bennett and Jake Tapper discuss. (CNN)

* EXCLUSIVE Afghan central bank drained dollar stockpile before Kabul fell (Reuters)

* "I am an educator of Afghan girls. My life’s work is the Taliban’s greatest need." (WP)

* Joint Chiefs chairman calls Afghan war a ‘strategic failure’ (AP)

* Taliban says U.S. drones must stop entering Afghanistan (Reuters)

* Military Officials Say They Urged Biden Against Afghanistan Withdrawal (NYT)

* YouTube blocks all anti-vaccine content (Reuters)

* Low-lying nations urge action on climate at U.N. (Reuters)

* U.S. says ivory-billed woodpecker, 22 other species extinct (AP)

* Drone images give hope for return of kelp on U.S. West coast (Reuters)

* Facebook Efforts to Attract Preteens Go Beyond Instagram, Documents Show -- Facebook has investigated how to engage young users in response to competition from Snapchat and TikTok. A 2019 internal presentation was titled: “Exploring playdates as a growth lever.” (WSJ)

* After 25 Years In The Dark, The CDC Wants To Study The True Toll Of Guns In America (NPR)

* A federal judge has ordered that all employees entering California prisons be vaccinated (Cal Today)

* ‘I Can’t Imagine a Good Future’: Young Iranians Increasingly Want Out -- Divorce is up, fertility rates are down and many from Iran’s younger generation are postponing weddings and searching for ways to leave the country in the face of economic and political stagnation. (NYT)

* Tunisia's New Prime Minister Is The First Woman To Lead An Arab World Government (NPR)

* Full Summer Of Tending Backyard Garden Produces Single Edible Cherry Tomato (The Onion)

Finding a Way

"Hello from the other side." -- Adele

_________________________________

To the best of my recollection, of all the courses I taught over a long teaching career, only one was explicitly about writing.

All of the others focused on some aspect of methodology -- how to gather information, validate it, organize it, and defend it once published.

In the course of considering all of that, we spent a great deal of energy studying how to obtain and interpret documents, identify and interview sources, attend and describe events, notice patterns, pick up details, stay attention to nuances and instincts, and how to trust our own intuition about people and situations.

But there is another component to the whole equation and that is how to tell a story. Accordingly, as I became a better writer myself (which is a process not unlike body-building), I incorporated "how to investigate the story" into my teaching curriculum.

Partly this was in reaction to receiving too many poorly-told story drafts as a teacher and as an editor.

The problem was and is that journalists (and everybody) gets too caught up in the twists and turns of a reasonably complicated story to stay in control of the narrative.

The trees become the forest and that is not necessarily a pleasant experience for a reader lost in the forest and trying to make her way from tree to tree.

The point is that working on the narrative is easily as important as working on gathering the facts. And this is true in non-fictional well.

***

Speaking of trees and forests, I spotted a report this morning that there are only 669,000 trees in San Francisco, while the best population estimate suggests that there are 875,000 people.

This raises the prospect that something very good for the environment could be easily accomplished by planting 206,000 more trees, bringing the tree-people ratio into balance.

Of course, San Francisco is essentially a big sand dune pocked with multiple granite outcroppings and not an especially conducive environment for greenery.

But as the development of Golden Gate Park proved back in the 1880s, there are ways to fix that. So I say it's time for a big tree-planting campaign in the city and county of San Francisco.

Who will step up?

***

THE HEADLINES:

* New Taliban Chancellor Bars Women From Kabul University -- The new policy for Afghanistan’s premier university is another major blow to women’s rights under Taliban rule, and to a two-decade effort to build up higher education. (NYT) 

* Taliban issue no-shave order to barbers in Afghan province (AP)

* Inside the Afghan airlift: Split-second decisions, relentless chaos drove historic military mission (WP)

* Is Going to the Office a Broken Way of Working? (New Yorker)

* San Francisco is home to 669,000 trees (SFC) and 875,000 people. (US Census)

 * The Return of Empty Shelves and Panic Buying -- Supply chain issues are leaving supermarket shelves empty. Shoppers might yet make things worse. (Bloomberg) 

* Big Tech Companies Amass Property Holdings During Pandemic-- Google’s announcement last week that it would purchase a Manhattan office building for $2.1 billion is the latest in a string of blockbuster corporate real-estate deals since the start of the pandemic. (WSJ)

* Under a new bill signed on Monday, a ballot will be mailed to every registered California voter in future elections. Voters will still have the option to send in their ballot or vote in person (AP) 

 * Entire families of Latino people were wiped out in floodwaters in a 1921 storm that laid waste to San Antonio's mostly Latino barrios. The storm sowed the seeds of the community's environmental justice movement. Read  -- Alexander C. Kaufman's fascinating story on why it's still relevant today. (HuffPost) 

 * ‘Covid hit us like a cyclone’: An Aboriginal town in the Australian Outback is overwhelmed (WP)

* Young activists bemoan climate inaction, demand more say -- 

Youth climate activists Vanessa Nakate and Greta Thunberg chastized global leaders Tuesday for failing to meet funding pledges to help poor nations adapt to a warming Earth and for delivering too much “blah blah blah’’ as climate change wreaks havoc around the world.

* Firefighters are still working to contain the Windy fire, the K.N.P. complex fire and the Fawn fire, which are encroaching on ancient sequoia forests (AP)

* Just Before Taking Effect, Arizona's School Mask Mandate Ban Ruled Unconstitutional (NPR)

* Tattoo sales are soaring in the Bay Area after pandemic slump. (SFC)

* Lego's earnings double, boosted by adult fans -- Toymaker Lego doubled its earnings over the first six months of the year as customers flocked to its reopened stores to buy Star Wars building sets and flower bouquets made from its colorful plastic bricks. (Reuters)

* Japan to lift all coronavirus emergency steps nationwide (AP)

* Republicans Block Government Funding, Refusing to Lift Debt Limit -- Senate Republicans opposed legislation to avert a government shutdown and prevent a debt default at a critical moment for Democrats’ domestic agenda. (NYT)

* Packs Of Ravenous Wild Boars Are Ransacking Rome (NPR)

* Cancer Without Chemotherapy: ‘A Totally Different World’ -- A growing number of cancer patients, especially those with breast and lung cancers, are being spared the dreaded treatment in favor of other options. (NYT)

* Alarming New Adult Trend ‘Plateauing In Your Career And Relationship’ Sweeps Nation (The Onion)