The Trap

My earliest sense of the war in Ukraine was that Putin was walking into a trap, which is what I wrote here on Substack. From the many news stories I had been gathering over weeks and months leading up to the war, it was easy to conclude that the West was prepared to meet any aggression by Russia with a much more united front than in times past.

And that Putin was too isolated and deluded to realize that.

In fact, there were plenty of indications that NATO would not only unify in support of Ukraine but potentially even do what it is now on the verge of doing, which is expand its reach into new countries near Russia, like Finland and Sweden that had previously remained neutral.

Even the stiff resistance of the Ukrainian people was foreseeable from the reports that were circulating pre-conflict, although the depth of that resistance was perhaps surprising.

To date, the war has only weakened Russia, further isolated Putin, and unified the West. Even the Pope is now suggesting that NATO may have goaded Putin into his ill-fated aggression.

I suppose we’ll have to wait for historians to render a clearer verdict of how this all came about. But for now, I’m sticking with my original analysis.

Today’s Headlines (36):

1. Finland Moves to Join NATO, Upending Putin’s Ukraine War Aims (NYT)

2. Nato may soon welcome Finland and Sweden – another blow for President Putin (Independent)

3. How Putin Drove Finland Into NATO’s Arms (WSJ)

4. The Guardian view on expanding Nato: Putin has only himself to blame (Guardian)

5. Finland claims joining NATO won't threaten Russia. Here's what the Kremlin has to say (CNN)

6. Erdogan says Turkey not supportive of Finland, Sweden joining NATO (Reuters)

7. Ukraine aiming to arm a million people (BBC)

8. The Vatican's number two, Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin, said that supplying weapons to Ukraine to help it defend itself against Russian aggression is morally legitimate under certain conditions, citing the Catholic Church's teaching on 'just war'. (Reuters)

9. Life in a Ukrainian Unit: Diving for Cover, Waiting for Western Weapons (NYT)

10. Russia takes losses in failed river crossing, officials say (AP)

11. Ukrainian forces destroyed a pontoon bridge and parts of Russian armored column as it tried to cross a river in the Donbas region, video footage released by Ukraine's military showed, and a Russian naval ship was set afire in the Black Sea. (Reuters)

12. Ukrainian forces destroy key bridge, Russian tanks in the east (NHK)

13. Zelenskyy: Ukraine will not be conquered (Politico)

14. Kyiv holds war crimes trial for Russian soldier as Sweden eyes NATO benefits (WP)

15. First war crimes trial held in Kyiv; nearly 100 children were killed in April alone (USA Today)

16. The top Democrat and Republican in the U.S. Senate joined forces in a rare moment of unity in an attempt to pass $40 billion in aid for Ukraine, only to be stymied by a single Republican lawmaker: Senator Rand Paul. (Reuters)

17. The Taliban drapes Afghan women in repression (Edit Bd/WP)

18. With China in focus, Biden makes $150 million commitment to ASEAN leaders (Reuters)

19. Xi’s strict covid policies prompt rumblings of discontent in China (WP)

20. Suspect held in Netherlands over 1994 Rwandan genocide (Guardian)

21. Israeli police beat pallbearers at journalist’s funeral (AP)

22. Biden’s Summit of the Americas Is Threatened by Boycotts, Confusion (NYT)

23. N. Korea reports 6 deaths after admitting COVID-19 outbreak (AP)

24. Billionaire Elon Musk abruptly put his purchase of Twitter "temporarily on hold," he wrote in a tweet, "pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users." It wasn't clear how the metric has anything to do with his planned purchase. [HuffPost]

25. Texas has declared open season on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube with censorship law (CNN)

26. Netflix is standing by its decision to offer content that employees may find “hard to support” or “harmful,” according to a company culture memo. The memo included a suggestion for employees: “If you find it hard to support our content breadth, Netflix may not be the best place for you.” [HuffPost]

27. Cryptocurrencies nursed large losses, with bitcoin trading near $30,000 and set for a record losing streak as the collapse of TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin, rippled through markets. (Reuters)

28. More Than $1 Trillion of Crypto Vanished in Just Six Months (WSJ)

29. Crypto reckoning looms in Washington as investors lose billions (Politico)

30. The Milky Way’s Black Hole Comes to Light (NYT)

31. The world got a look at the first wild but fuzzy image of the supermassive black hole at the center of our own Milky Way galaxy. Previous efforts had found the black hole in the center of our galaxy too jumpy to get a good picture. [AP]

32. Scientists Grow Plants in Moon Soil – A First in Human History (SciTechDaily)

33. More Than Almost Famous: Rock Star Journalist Ben Fong-Torres Tells All (Rolling Stone)

34. Fragment of the asteroid that killed off the dinosaurs may have been found (CNN)

35. Kansas man finds a mythical-looking ax with a root for a handle in his front yard (NPR)

36. Laid-Back Company Allows Employees To Work From Home After 6 P.M. (The Onion)

Back Up, Future

One of this week’s top stories is from Wired: “Paradise at the Crypto Arcade: Inside the Web3 Revolution,” by Gilad Edelman.

Here are a few salient quotes from the article: 

• One way to think about Web3 is right there in the name: It’s the successor to Web 2.0, the era that was supposed to democratize the internet but instead became dominated by a handful of huge platforms, like Google and Facebook. Web3 is about re-decentralizing the web.

• (T)o a core of true believers … Web3 is about decentralizing … everything. Its mission is almost achingly idealistic: to free humanity not only from Big Tech domination but also from exploitative capitalism itself—and to do it purely through code.

• Web3 aims to apply these two concepts—decentralization and game theory—to all of digital life.

• A blockchain is a database that lives across a network of computers rather than on one server. No single person or organization owns it. There’s no central authority that must be trusted to enforce the rules.

• The main vehicle for this is Ethereum, a blockchain that borrowed Bitcoin’s key features and added a major innovation: It was designed with its own programming language so developers could build apps, and eventually a whole new decentralized digital infrastructure, to run on it.

• (But) Crypto’s user-unfriendliness keeps pushing the system to do the one thing it was designed not to do: centralize.

This is by no means a comprehensive summary of the article’s content. For that, I encourage you to read it here.

Today’s News (33):

1. Finland moves to join NATO, says it will increase security in Baltic Sea (Reuters)

2. Finland’s president and prime minister said they’re in favor of applying for NATO membership, paving the way for the alliance to expand amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. Neighboring Sweden is expected to decide on joining NATO in coming days. [AP]

3. Kremlin calls Finland's NATO move a threat to Russia (Fox)

4. The decision by the two Nordic countries to abandon the neutrality they maintained throughout the Cold War would be one of the biggest shifts in European security in decades. Finland's announcement drew fury from the Kremlin, which called it a direct threat to Russia and threatened an unspecified response. (Reuters)

5. Ukraine is pushing Russia back from its second-largest city. — Ukrainian forces recaptured a village north of Kharkiv, in the northeast part of the country, and made other advances. (WP)

6. Ukraine says it blew up Russian pontoon bridges over a key river — and units trying to cross it (NBC)

7. The Ukraine War’s Economic Toll Is Testing the West’s Unity Against Russia (NYT)

8. Russia’s use of cluster munitions causing ‘intense’ harm in Ukraine (WP)

9. Among the many losses of the war in Ukraine: nearly 5 million jobs (NPR)

10. Ukraine’s ‘Road of Death’: Video Investigation Shows Russians Fired on Civilians (WSJ)

11. Ukrainian refugees in Russia report interrogations, detention and other abuses (WP)

12. In the Trenches of Eastern Ukraine, Combat Becomes a Vicious Dance (NYT)

13. Sanctions forcing Russia to use appliance parts in military gear, U.S. says (WP)

14. Ukraine regains territory, and crime scene investigators move in (WP)

15. Some birth control could be banned if Roe v. Wade is overturned, legal experts warn (NBC)

16. Legislation to make abortion legal throughout the United States was defeated in the Senate, amid solid Republican opposition. The Justice Department said that it was stepping up security for members of the Supreme Court ahead of an anticipated ruling that could scale back abortion rights. (Reuters)

17. Supermassive black hole seen at the center of our galaxy (WP)

18. Scientists reveal first image of the black hole in the center of our galaxy (Yahoo)

19. Water may have been on Mars much more recently than scientists thought, China's rover suggests (Space.com)

20. The swift march of climate change in North Carolina’s ‘ghost forests’ (WP)

21. War and Weather Sent Food Prices Soaring. Now, China’s Harvest Is Uncertain. (NYT)

22. As America's weather gets wilder, its power network gets older. Reuters investigates how the grid, plagued by outages and increasingly severe weather, needs a trillion-dollar overhaul to handle the Biden administration’s promised clean-energy revolution. (Reuters)

23. Crash of TerraUSD Shakes Crypto. ‘There Was a Run on the Bank.’ (WSJ)

24. Dogecoin and Ether Sink Faster Than Bitcoin as Crypto Crash Intensifies (Barron’s)

25. Cryptocurrencies extended their sell-off, with Bitcoin falling to its lowest levels in 16 months as a stampede out of so-called stablecoins sent shockwaves around broader markets. (Reuters)

26. Crypto’s plummet tests the durability of a hype-driven industry (WP)

27. Apple Is No Longer World’s Most Valuable Company — Saudi Aramco, with a market capitalization close to $2.383 trillion, is as of this week the world’s most valuable company. (WSJ)

28. SF DA Chesa Boudin says he's 'confident' he'll beat recall, despite bruising poll (ABC)

29. In an unprecedented move, Jan. 6 panel subpoenas McCarthy and other Republicans (NPR)

30. Firefighters in northern New Mexico labored under an apocalyptic orange sky, and vehicles streamed out of the ski area of Angel Fire as wind-driven flames from the state's second-largest blaze on record roared closer to the mountain resort. (Reuters)

31. China says it will ‘strictly limit’ citizens from going abroad (Financial Times)

32. DeafBlind Communities May Be Creating a New Language of Touch — Protactile began as a movement for autonomy and a system of tactile communication. Now, some linguists argue, it is becoming a language of its own. (New Yorker)

33. New Report Confirms You Are Most Interesting, Most Important Individual On Earth (The Onion)

 

Nomads in the Garden: Afghan Conversation.31

This is the latest in an ongoing series of conversations I have been having with an Afghan friend about the conditions inside his country since the Taliban took over last August. Afghanistan is one of the few countries in the world that still has many nomadic groups. My friend, who is Hazara, describes how the Taliban are letting their fellow Pashtun nomads, the Kochi, encroach on Hazara farmlands.

Dear David:

It was two p.m. when the bus departed on schedule from the caravanserai for my recent trip to see my parents in Hazarajat. I had bought the ticket the day before for 900 afg or about ten US dollars, which is more than 40 percent more expensive than it was before the Taliban took over Afghanistan. 

Along the way, I listened to audiobooks and music, trying to ignore the stench inside the old vehicle, which is rarely if ever cleaned.

The pavement on our roads are grooved and broken due to the heavy load of trucks and the many past explosions from landmines. Junk from the war was laying everywhere – scavengers had pulled it apart.

When I arrived in Hazarajat at my parents’ home, what I noticed immediately was that there were Pashtun nomads everywhere. Like most Afghans, my parents are farmers, mainly they engage in sheepherding. This work is difficult all over Afghanistan because there is not enough good grazing area for the animals. 

For this reason, before the Taliban takeover the nomads weren't allowed to enter Hazarajat. But now their herds of sheep are ravaging the fields in the valley. 

That is a key reason that these days my parents and their fellow villagers are worried and feeling desperate. They worry that the nomads’ herds will eat their crops, that the war will return, and that the overall insecurity of their situation is increasing all the time. The ongoing drought has only added more pressure. 

For now there is no hope for relief in sight.

For more on the Taliban’s war on the Hazara, see:

• The "Nobody Knows" Genocide

• Life - Human Rights

Today’s Headlines (45):

1. Ukraine prosecutors ready to launch first war crimes trials of Russia conflict (Guardian)

2. Russia pushed back from Kharkiv (BBC)

3. Russia was behind a massive cyberattack against a satellite internet networkthat took tens of thousands of modems offline at the onset of the war, the United States, Britain, Canada, Estonia and the European Union said. The digital assault against Viasat's KA-SAT network took place just as Russian armor pushed into Ukraine. (Reuters)

4. Ukraine War’s Geographic Reality: Russia Has Seized Much of the East (NYT)

5. War affecting gas supply to Europe (WP)

6. Flows of Russian gas to Europe through a transit point in Ukraine dried up, while Kyiv reported battlefield gains over invading Russian forces that could signal a shift in the war's momentum. (Reuters)

7. The Covert Operation to Back Ukrainian Independence that Haunts the CIA(Politico)

8. We’re in danger of losing our democracy, but most Americans are in denial (Max Boot/WP)

9. The Forgotten Stage of Human Progress — Invention is easily overrated, and implementation is often underrated. (Atlantic)

10. Trump must pay $110,000 fine, meet other conditions to purge contempt, judge says (Reuters)

11. What would overturning Roe mean for birth control? (NPR)

12. Alito’s draft opinion overturning Roe is still the only one circulated inside Supreme Court (Politico)

13. Overturn of Roe could make IVF more complicated, costly (WP)

14. The Calamity of Unwanted Motherhood (Atlantic)

15. The Devastating Economic Impacts of an Abortion Ban — The overturning of Roe v. Wade would seriously hinder women’s education, employment, and earning prospects. (New Yorker)

16. Report Catalogs Abuse of Native American Children at Former Government Schools (NYT)

17. Burial Sites for Native American Kids Found at 53 Boarding Schools (WSJ)

18. Paradise at the Crypto Arcade: Inside the Web3 Revolution (Wired)

19. Fed Confronts Why It May Have Acted Too Slowly on Inflation (NYT)

20. US inflation dips from 4-decade high but still causing pain (ABC)

21. Inflation may be easing — but low-income people are still paying the steepest prices (NPR)

22. In Shanghai, covid reveals cracks in the authoritarian system (WP)

23. US overdose deaths hit record 107,000 last year, CDC says (AP)

24. The Pentagon Papers leaker explains why the Supreme Court draft leak is a good thing (NPR)

25. DeSantis-appointed judge signals Florida’s congressional map is unconstitutional for diminishing Black representation (CNN)

26. Florida students win yearbook flap over 'Don't Say Gay' bill (ABC)

27. Gun deaths surged during the pandemic’s first year, the C.D.C. reports. (NYT)

28. American journalist fatally shot by Israeli forces in West Bank, network says(WP)

29. Israel’s defense minister promised a thorough investigation of the killing of Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh on Wednesday and asked that Palestinian officials hand over the bullet that killed her. (AP)

30. Why do journalists in Mexico keep getting killed? (WP)

31. Marcos Win Prompts Protests in the Philippines (NYT)

32. Apple to discontinue the iPod after 21 years (BBC)

33. Google Maps’ new ‘Immersive View’ combines Street View with satellites (Verge)

34. Are Canadians being driven to assisted suicide by poverty or healthcare crisis? (Guardian)

35. The 4-day workweek is coming (Politico)

36. The Biggest Potential Water Disaster in the U.S. — In California, millions of residents and thousands of farmers depend on the Bay-Delta for fresh water—but they can’t agree on how to protect it. (New Yorker}

37. The United States' largest active wildfire bore down on New Mexico mountain villages, triggering evacuations in another county as firefighters saw no way to stop the blaze. (Reuters)

38. Record-breaking heat is scorching the central U.S. this week. (WP)

39. As the Climate Changes, So Does Fiction (Atlantic)

40. Study finds cleaner air leads to more Atlantic hurricanes (AP)

41. Donald Trump’s fantastical theories about hurricanes were apparently not limited to nuking them. During his first year in office, the former president repeatedly asked national security aides if China had secret technology or weapons that could create hurricanes and shoot them at the U.S., according to Rolling Stone. [HuffPost]

42. Earth could soon briefly hit threatening climate threshold (WP)

43. Is Gen Z Coddled, or Caring? (Atlantic)

44. Tom Brady will be Fox Sports' lead analyst whenever he decides to really retire(NPR)

45. ‘I’m From Michigan, Too,’ Says Man Hitting It Off With Locally Grown Lettuce (The Onion)