The Opening

One of the main things analysts, pundits and other commentators rely on for their opinions is precedent, especially when it comes to politics. They routinely turn to the past when making predictions.

And that is precisely what makes the 2024 presidential election so difficult to analyze. We’ve never before had a situation like the present one.

The incumbent President is under extreme pressure to withdraw from the race — long after he sewed up enough delegates to win his party’s nomination.

Meanwhile, his opponent from the other party just escaped an assassination attempt.

In that context, Donald Trump also just missed a major opportunity — to present himself as a unifying figure at a time of deep division and discord. But by departing from the script at his acceptance speech to return to the polarizing figure promoting resentment against the other side he has always been he blew his chance.

In the process, he may have opened the door for Democrats to retain the White House. Assuming Biden withdraws soon, and that he throws his support and his delegates to Vice-President Kamala Harris, she would become the nominee.

Then, if she chose Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as her running mate, Trump would confront an all-female ticket that might be able to exploit his major electoral weakness, which is with suburban women voters in the swing states.

Such an election face-off would be decided by a slim section of the electorate, and that demographic sliver would be trending Democratic. 

But if the all-women ticket is a step too far into the unknown for the Democrats, there are men — Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly —who could make good V-P candidates as well. And there’s the further possibility that someone other than Harris ends up at the head of the ticket, perhaps Shapiro, Kelly or Whitmer.

Again, there’s no precedent for any of these scenarios and that’s what makes them exciting and unpredictable.

We’re entering uncharted territory.

HEADLINES:

• People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race (NYT)

• Top Democrats Prepare for Campaign Without Biden (WSJ)

• What happens if the president drops out? (WP)

• ‘Our Nation Is Not Well’: Voters Fear What Could Happen Next (NYT)

• The Imperial Presidency Unleashed — How the Supreme Court Eliminated the Last Remaining Checks on Executive Power (Foreign Affairs)

• Trump v. U.S.: Has the Supreme Court Made the Presidency More Dangerous? (CFR)

• How Trump’s Security Failed to Stop an Assassination Attempt (NYT)

• Widespread tech outage disrupts flights and companies worldwide (AP)

• How software errors melted down the world’s computer systems (WP)

• Russian court sentences U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison (NPR)

• Long before his arrest, US reporter lamented that many friends in Russia were being locked up (AP)

• Israeli settlements violate international law, U.N.'s top court says in a landmark opinion (NBC)

• Japan asks young people why they are not marrying amid population crisis (Guardian)

• Lonely Singles Seek Love in Government Courtship Services (WSJ)

• The Blurred Reality of AI’s ‘Human-Washing’ (Wired)

• For The Love Of AI (Forbes)

• Figure AI Humanoid Robots Start Functioning at BMW Factories (AIM)

• Archaeologists Celebrate After Uncovering Ancient Certificate Congratulating Them For Finding All The Stuff (The Onion)

 

All the Lone Wolves

Trump’s big moment came and went last night. He failed to distinguish himself. He didn’t rise to the moment but instead gave a long, boring, bewildering ramble of a speech. He seemed subdued. Of course, who wouldn’t be after almost getting killed by an assassin’s bullet?

Soon after last Saturday’s shooting, I started exchanging phone and text messages with friends and family members. I imagine this was true for many people — most of us need to talk about shocking news events in order to help process them.

Once the shock wore off, the familiar narrative arose. “The shooter was a quiet guy nobody seems to have known very well.”

Those investigating the crime must be especially careful not to miss any of the small signs that might contradict this dominant narrative, lest they get swept up in the societal rush to judgement.

That is an investigator’s burden in these cases. To be clear, I’m not suggesting that in this particular case there’s anything else going on; I’m just commenting generally on the process that is underway.

We always have to be patient until the truth reveals itself. And maybe that will be that the shooter was a lone wolf, a quiet guy nobody seems to have known very well.

HEADLINES:

• Behind the Curtain: Top Dems now believe Biden will exit (Axios)

• Doctors Are Increasingly Worried About Biden (New Yorker)

• Trump closes out RNC with charged speech after assassination attempt (The Hill)

• Gunman’s Phone Had Details About Both Trump and Biden, F.B.I. Officials Say (NYT)

• The vibe at the RNC is worse than you can imagine (LAT)

• Special counsel Jack Smith appeals dismissal of Trump classified documents case (CNBC)

• In 2022, Thomas Homan, the head of ICE under Trump, accepted an invitation to speak at a racist event hosted by Nick Fuentes. Wednesday night, he addressed the RNC, describing immigrants as an existential threat to America. [HuffPost]

• The Search for Alien Life Starts on Earth (Atlantic)

• Navy exonerates Black sailors charged after 1944 Port Chicago disaster: ‘A tremendous wrong’ (WP)

• Crows can count out loud like human toddlers — when they aren't cheating the test (NPR)

• Elephants Are Doing Something Deeply Human (Atlantic)

• Iran denies plot against Trump, after U.S. reports unspecified threat (WP)

• Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s far-right national security minister, visited Jerusalem’s most sensitive holy site, threatening to disrupt Gaza cease-fire talks. [AP]

• Wall Street Journal in press freedom row over dismissal of union leader (Al Jazeera)

• Goldman’s Top Stock Analyst Is Waiting for AI Bubble to Burst (Bloomberg)

• OpenAI Slashes the Cost of Using Its AI With a “Mini” Model (Wired)

• AI’s ‘Oppenheimer moment’: autonomous weapons enter the battlefield (Guardian)

• China deploys censors to create socialist AI (Financial Times)

• Usha Vance Gently Corrects RNC Usher Attempting To Deport Her (The Onion)

 

The Fork in the Road

Joe Biden has led a long and honorable life of public service. He has had many significant accomplishments, including the past three-and-a-half years as the president of a deeply divided country. 

But he has reached a turning point in both his life and his career.

It’s becoming clear that he can’t win re-election. The numbers are no longer with him. So, in order to give his party its best fighting chance in the down ballot races for House and Senate seats, it’s time for him to withdraw from the race.

I expect he will be doing that in the coming days. 

This is unfair to him on many levels. But he, as well as any of us, knows that life can be unfair. 

Yet even as his quest for a second term ends, the battle to stop Trump has just begun. 

HEADLINES:

• Biden calls for ban on gun used to shoot Trump (BBC)

• Thomas Matthew Crooks searched for a royal before attempting to kill the former president (Independent)

• Three days after attempted assassination, Trump shooter remains an elusive enigma (AP)

• The latest on the Trump assassination attempt investigation (CNN)

• Trump shooting: US gov’t watchdog probing Secret Service security plan (Al Jazeera)

• The dangerous story Trump fans are telling themselves at the RNC (MSNBC)

• Nearly two-thirds of Democrats want President Biden to drop out of the presidential race, new AP-NORC poll shows (AP)

• Rep. Adam Schiff calls on Biden to drop out of presidential race (WP)

• Biden tests positive for Covid, cancels speech in Las Vegas (CNBC)

• Why the far right is surging all over the world (Vox)

• Torrential rain triggered flash flooding in parts of Toronto, Canada's financial center, causing power outages, disrupting traffic and forcing airlines to curtail service. (Reuters)

• The Palestinian Authority Is Collapsing (Foreign Affairs)

• Authorities in China are focused on boosting foreign tourism, including via a new policy granting visa-free entry to tourists from several countries. But even with tourism-friendly policies, far fewer tourists are coming to China now than before the pandemic. (Reuters)

• Prime Day is mostly a good deal for Amazon, not you (WP)

• Here’s How to Create a Social Safety Net With Bipartisan Support (Bloomberg)

• Biden Circle Shrinks as Democrats Fear Election Wipeout (NYT)

• ‘It’s like the yeti’: Scientists are marveling at a potential spade-toothed whale sighting (WP)

• Google chief scientist Jeff Dean: AI needs ‘algorithmic breakthroughs,’ and AI is not to blame for brunt of data center emissions increase (Fortune)

• What Could Conquer the Superweeds? Bayer and Others Turn to AI (WSJ)

• How AI is fuelling uncertainty for game developers (BBC)

• China Puts Power of State Behind AI—and Risks Strangling It (WSJ)

• Theatrical Farce Features Teammates, Parents, Coaches Pretending Little Leaguer’s 12-Error Dribbler Was Real Home Run (The Onion)

 

Wednesday Links

Today’s top story:

President Biden is set to announce support for major Supreme Court changes — to propose term limits for justices and an enforceable ethics code. Biden may also call for a constitutional amendment to get rid of broad immunity for presidents. (WP)

OTHER HEADLINES:

• US received intel of Iranian plot to assassinate Trump (CNN)

• Iran threat prompted increased protection of Trump but Saturday's attack appears unrelated, officials say (AP)

• Sen. Bob Menendez found guilty on all counts, including acting as foreign agent, in federal corruption trial (ABC)

• Schumer calls on Menendez to resign following conviction (Politico)

• Jan. 6 marchers at Republican convention complicate efforts to avoid subject (WP)

• Special counsel Jack Smith plans to appeal a Trump-appointed judge’s dismissal of the classified documents caseagainst the GOP presidential nominee. [AP]

• What Project 2025 would mean for the fight against climate change (The Hill)

• Why is the US Secret Service under scrutiny after Trump assassination bid? (Al Jazeera)

• Police snipers were inside building as Trump rally shooter fired from roof above (WP)

• Ukraine Battles to Contain Russian Advances Across the Front (NYT)

• What to know about the growing number of treason and espionage cases in today’s Russia under Putin (AP)

• Why melting ice sheets are making our days longer (WP)

• Money for nothing: is universal basic income about to transform society? (Guardian)

• She Didn’t Like His Song, So She Tried to Eat Him (NYT)

• Scientists are trying to replace an extinct species of butterfly. (WP)

• Immunotherapy Is Changing Cancer Treatment Forever (New York)

• A short history of AI, and what it is (and isn’t) (Tech Review)

• TechCrunch Minute: A Google robot shows off what Gemini can do (TechCrunch)

• Are We in an AI Bubble? (Motley Fool)

• Study Finds Joggers Burn Up To 200 Calories From Repeatedly Pulling Down Bunched-Up Shorts (The Onion)

 

Just My Imagination

As the tumultuous events in real-world America have been unfolding over the past few days, I’ve been avidly reading a political thriller published in 1997. The book’s scenario involves a presidential election stolen by a small group of insiders who manipulate the votes in just three states — California, New York and Michigan.

They also stack the Supreme Court with corrupt judges. And there’s an assassination attempt that kills a bystander.

Hmmm.

Meanwhile, the real world political landscape is being dominated by a reality-TV star orchestrating his own coronation as a 21st century king who survived an assassination attempt with the help, apparently, of the same God who’s in charge of his rating in the polls.

This man is a demagogue, the likes of which we’ve not seen since the 1930s who projects onto others his darkest fears while inspiring loyalty from millions of people based on lies, hate and conspiracy theories.

His entire rise to power has been based on tactics that appeal to the worst instincts of that portion of the citizenry that feels confused and resentful of a fast-moving culture that seems to have left them behind.

He repackages the past, gives it a nostalgic twist, and sells it with his brand-name slogan: Make America Great Again.

The reality is many of the things that made this country great are the very ones — diversity, tolerance, progressive thinking — that he rails against. Then again, he’s not one to let the facts get in his way.

Nevertheless, now he’s that great American archetype — a “new man” given his close brush with death —the odds are that he’s going to win in November. Surviving an assassination attempt pretty much sealed that deal.

But hey, it’s all just a TV show anyway. Why worry about it? Just turn it off and return to the novel, where at least there’s the consolation that the threat to democracy is only a figment of somebody’s imagination.

HEADLINES:

• The Gunman and the Would-Be Dictator (Atlantic)

• Bandaged Trump receives raucous welcome after announcing JD Vance as VP pick on day one (Independent)

• Trump selects Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate (CNN)

• An Assassination Attempt That Seems Likely to Tear America Further Apart (NYT)

• Alleged Trump shooter spotted by law enforcement nearly 30 minutes before shots fired, sources say (WPXI)

• FBI searches for motive behind shooting (WP)

• In the wake of Trump’s attempted assassination, investigators search for clues around the motive (AP)

• Spray of bullets shatters nation's illusion of security (BBC)

• Rooftop where gunman shot at Trump was identified as a security vulnerability before rally: sources (NBC)

• In a country already on edge, the shooting has raised fears of further political violence. (Reuters)

• Shooting at Trump Rally Comes at Volatile Time in American History (NYT)

• Biden bristles at continued questions about his age and abilities in NBC interview (NPR)

• This is how you get escalation (Vox)

• How to avoid falling for misinformation and conspiracy theories (WP)

• Inside Ziklag, the Secret Organization of Wealthy Christians Trying to Sway the Election and Change the Country (ProPublica)

• Climate change is upending NATO's operations (Axios)

• One-third of US military could be robotic by 2039: Milley (Military Times)

• Robots are helping build new apartments in Seattle (NPR)

• “Superhuman” Go AIs still have trouble defending against these simple exploits (ArsTechnica)

• Prompts and the art of earning in times of AI (Economic Times)

• Pete Buttigieg Trapped Beneath Derailed Model Train (The Onion)

 

A Wounded Country

The shots intended to kill Donald Trump Saturday evening only grazed him but they gravely wounded American democracy. This at a time our system of government was already reeling from a series of assaults starting with the Jan. 6th insurrection.

The Supreme Court has further undermined democracy with a number of questionable decisions. And today, a Trump-appointed judge has dismissed his classified records case.

Our system of justice is in freefall.

Meanwhile, the main beneficiary of the assassination attempt politically is Trump. At the present time, he seems unstoppable in his quest to return to the White House. Then again, this has been the most troubled election year since 1968, and who knows what further disruptions are yet to come.

HEADLINES:

• Trump classified documents case dismissed by judge over special counsel appointment (CNBC)

• Biden appeals for ‘unity’ after attempted Trump assassination, orders security review (AP)

• Trump says to ‘stand united’ as FBI seeks motive in assassination attempt (WP)

• A Nation Inflamed (New Yorker)

• FBI: Gunman at Trump rally appears to have acted alone (WP)

• Kinzinger says JD Vance’s response to shooting should ‘disqualify’ him from VP consideration (The Hill)

• Secret Service under scrutiny over gunman’s access (WP)

• Trump headed to Republican convention after surviving assassination attempt (Reuters)

• After Trump assassination attempt, Biden campaign pauses ads, events, attacks (ABC)

• After saying she wouldn't be there, Nikki Haley will now speak at Republican convention (NPR)

• Shooter was a registered Republican and worked at a nursing home in Pennsylvania (WP)

• Trump Gunman Was Loner Who Wore Hunting Gear to School (Daily Beast)

A Bad Turn

We were already having a bad election year when somebody identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20 years old, tried to assassinate Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania Saturday.

The FBI, as the lead investigative agency, will conduct a criminal investigation and a theory of the case may emerge quickly, but it will be just that — a theory. And that probably will not satisfy the portion of the public that embraces conspiracy theories as the more palatable explanations for events such as these.

Those of us who prefer fact-based explanations will just have to wait, while hoping this does not unleash yet another escalation in the political rhetoric of hate, fear, calls for retribution and anti-democratic authoritarianism.

Meanwhile, I’m afraid a very bad year just got immeasurably worse.

HEADLINES:

• Trump injured in shooting at Pennsylvania rally that left at least 1 dead (CNN)

• The Attempt on Donald Trump’s Life and an Image That Will Last (New Yorker)

• Amid shooting at Donald Trump rally, fears of political violence reach new heights (NBC)

• Hamas Official: ‘We’re Not Obstinate’ in Cease-Fire Talks on Gaza (NYT)

• At least 70 Palestinians reported killed in Israeli strike targeting Hamas military chief (CNN)

• Bullish Biden defies those calling for him to step down (Reuters)

• Trump aides script convention to soften his image, but face challenges (WP)

• Deeply Democratic Milwaukee wrestles with hosting Trump and the Republican National Convention (AP)

• Democrats Fear Safe Blue States Turning Purple as Biden Stays the Course (NYT)

• Remember the Alamo? Rehab of battle site is latest front in culture war. (WP)

• The battle over America’s soul (Economist)

• A stunning find in his family tree: The Bushes’ ancestors enslaved his relatives (WP)

• SpaceX's Falcon 9 grounded, batch of Starlink satellites doomed (Reuters)

• Taliban tries reconciling science and religion in facing climate change (WP)

• Machine learning and the microscope (MIT)

• AI bubble set to inflate further (Financial Times)

• Galaxy AI vs Apple Intelligence – who's winning the AI war? (Techradar)

• OpenAI illegally barred staff from airing safety risks, whistleblowers say (WP)

• FDA Crackdown Forces Colgate To Remove Nicotine From Toothpaste (The Onion)