Next Year: Re-election Year?

Most of the old adages in politics are true, which is why we call them adages -- a word that means "a general truth that has gained credit through long use."

One such truth is that the state of the economy will be the most important determinant of a incumbent's ability to retain his or her position during a re-election campaign.

In this context, Barack Obama's prospects next year would seem to be dismal. This economy sucks, and particularly for the large segment of independent voters in what used to qualify to be called the "middle class," life is difficult right now.

It makes no difference that a President has relatively little control over the monstrously huge U.S. economy, which is actually one big (but not dominant) piece of an interlocked global economy, Americans are accustomed to holding their President accountable when unemployment (or inflation) is high, growth stagnates, home foreclosures and/or personal bankruptcies spike.

All of those insults exception inflation exist now and have throughout Obama's first term.

There are plenty of other political problems as well. His health reform initiative is widely viewed as largely a failure (including by me); his stimulus package is denounced by the right, although in this case the criticism is largely uninformed. Without the massive infusion of government funds into saving iconic segments of industry such as the Detroit automakers, the extension of unemployment benefits, and the subsidy of Cobra benefits for unemployed workers, the misery felt by "middle-class" people would have been far worse.

Furthermore, one by one, the companies that were "saved" by government subsidies have been paying Uncle Sam back so the twin evils denounced by the under-informed, i.e., socialistic takeovers of businesses and bankrupting the government, proved to be fantasies.

Obama's party suffered losses in the mid-term election that are making his second two-year sub-term challenging. Who knows how far the Republican majority in the House is willing to take its game of chicken that may force the government to default on some payments later this summer.

The dilemma for Obama is that even if the GOP forces a default, followed by whatever series of compromises to bring the government back into the real world, who will pay the political price next year? That's where the old adage about the economy cuts against the President -- a confused and enraged electorate expect him to remain in control of something that may prove to be uncontrollable.

There is a kind of dangerous purity of thought behind the Tea Party/extreme right's desire to cut government radically, to slice the deficit, and to bring the national budget more into balance. It's seductive to imagine these ideas are practical, or that even if they are not, that they are the "right" thing to do.

But, as usual, deceptive simplifications of extremely complex systems prove too good to be true.

Government agencies may be bloated in some cases, but every "cut" costs someone their job, and suddenly another family is without the means to support themselves, or contribute their earnings in the form of consumer purchases needed to drive economic recovery.

Government investments in infrastructure and subsidies drive business development -- there would be precious little innovation without the role of governments on the state, local and national level providing the incentives that they do for small businesses to launch.

Believe me, I cover this sector, and there are plenty of senseless rules and regulations I'd love to see sliced away to help entrepreneurs even more -- such as mindless payroll taxes imposed by cities like San Francisco -- but at the same time there are tons of tax breaks, preferential zoning decisions, and public subsidies that promote innovation.

Think about DARPA when you think about government investments. We wouldn't have the Internet, for example...

So, while much of the rhetoric that boils over from time to time seems logical or at least believable (until you start to analyze it closely), the facts are that neither the President nor Congress have enough power to "fix" this economy. That will depend on global market forces, and the actions of other governments and private institutions over which they have little or no control.

The government of China, for example, or the oil multinational companies.

Since the vast majority of people live in a state of unending economic ignorance -- I think that is a fair generalization -- it is easy for politicians to exploit that ignorance in pursuit of their own narrow electoral objectives.

Will Obama be re-elected?

In spite of everything above, yes, he will.

The reason is there is no credible opposition. I'm not saying that a credible opponent will not yet emerge, because there is time, no matter what the political hacks tell you that it's "almost too late" for that to occur.

Nonsense, the right candidate who could unify the opposition and motivate the Independents in this time of economic pain could most definitely mount a strong challenge to Obama next year.

The President is already raising a lot of money -- perhaps a billion dollars -- and he will rightly accrue the benefits of (a) having ordered the Navy Seals unit to go into Pakistan and get Osama bin-Laden; (b) having through speeches and deeds helped inspire the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa; (c) called out and made foolish the "birthers" like Donald Trump for the sideshow clowns they are; (d) improved this country's standing around the world, especially in Europe and Asia; (e) provided strong statesmanship skills in many of our foreign relations (helped here by Hillary Clinton); (f) and ended the war in Iraq.

He will have a few other policy victories to point to, but the outcome of the showdown with Republicans this summer over the deficit looms large. If he escapes the time bomb inherent in backing down either too soon or too late -- or if the Republicans misstep by overplaying their hand (a distinct possibility) -- Obama will have eliminated the major known threat still facing him on the road to re-election.

No matter how that turns out, however, if the opposition party splinters into two camps -- say, the Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin camps -- you can be certain that the old adage about the economy will be trumped by another one: "Divide and Conquer."

-30-

Back Through Time, Softly

Yes, the rains moved in around 8 pm last night and haven't let up yet. For whatever reason, I woke up by 4 am and haven't let up since. A lot is roiling around in that synaptic mass of mine -- too many ideas, too many memories, too many points of confusion.

Often in the rain, I am summoned back to my childhood; sometimes further along to my youth, specifically my college years in Ann Arbor, Michigan. If you've never been to Ann Arbor, well, that's rather a pity.

It epitomizes the college town, the Midwest, intellectual freedom, and seasonal changes, among many other things.

I'm remembering a day, or rather the feel of a day, whether it ever existed I'm not entirely sure. It was rainy and I was going existential on myself, wandering around, skinny, long-haired, and more lost in thought than any absent-minded professor.

But I wasn't a professor, I was an absent-minded student, not something to be desired, particularly.

As I entered a building in campus, out of the rain, a nun looked at me and smiled, sympathetically.

That's all. That is the entire sum of the memory. I don't know why a nun was on campus, but there were various chapels here and there around the campus, so I suppose she was attached to one of those houses of worship.

If there is a shred of meaning to be attached to this fragment of a memory, it eludes me. And therein lies the problem. I'm compelled to remember this but I don't know why, and it has little applicability to my present dilemmas, other than once again I find myself feeling very lost on a rainy morning just as on that other day 40 years ago.

This time, however, there is no nun and no sympathetic smile. This time there is only the soft silence of the rain, reminding me how alone some of us remain in this lovely, poignant, awful, pointless, cruel, fantastic world of ours.

-30-

Act Three Opens

It's always a nice feeling when one of your articles gets picked up by Yahoo News.

I'm excited that I've finally decided to launch my own company; today I met with a brilliant designer along with my good friend who has been urging me to do this for some time.

Tonight, I secured the domain name that will be where my website will be located. Next steps are to create the content that will reside there. As I prepare the launch, I'll post news here.

The reason this is so exciting to me is that I am finally joining the entrepreneurial revolution I have been covering for half a year now.

One of my reasons for going into business for myself is to be able to continue being the available parent in my kids' lives 8:30-6:30 every work day. Their Mom has a job and therefore isn't able to be on the scene during those 50 critical hours, just as I wasn't in the recent past.

Meanwhile, you know kids. A big history project requires a trip to an art supply store and many hours of supervision as she writes a long essay, creates a poster, as well as a 3-D representation.

Hungry teenage boys confronted with an empty refrigerator call you up at 3 pm two days in a row seeking lunch. One day, Big Mouth Burger. The next day it's Escape From New York.

Meanwhile, there are shirts, pants, shoes, dresses, boots, and cookies, all of which require Dad and a car.

The way I work, as a writer and a consultant, is in two-hour bursts, which allows me to schedule my professional and personal obligations throughout the day (and night).

If my startup starts up as well as it should, I'll be hiring people within months. That will kick off a whole new era, here in Act Three of my life. Stay tuned. More than that, if any of what I have said is at all applicable to anyone who reads it, consider starting your own company too.

This is a rare moment -- even with the unending recession smothering many of our traditional options, there is a window of opportunity, thanks to disruptive technologies, to pursue your own dream. If you think I can help you do that, contact me!

-30-

Fences, Neighbors, Connections

Thanks to a gap in our fence, among the bamboo, my neighbor's puppy came over for a visit yesterday, and again today. Yesterday her Mom showed up to retrieve the animal; today, it was her Dad. The young woman who owns this dog has just graduated from college and she acquired the dog over the Internet. (Something I admit I didn't realize you could do.)

This young dog enlivened our past two afternoons as my daughter and I struggled to finish her final two school projects (science and history) as her sixth grade year draws to its end.

It's funny about dogs, and kids, and neighbors and school work. One way or another way, it is all about community. Do you know your neighbors very well? In small towns this is a foolish question, (of course you do), but in big cities like this one, knowing your neighbors isn't always such an easy goal to accomplish.

Thanks to that little dog, however, for the first time in eight years of living here, I now know Wei (the Mom) and Gabriel (the Dad). I already know their daughter, "B" because I've helped her with some of her academic work, since she is a communications major at a local college.

But there are downsides of getting to know your neighbors. Now that my 12-year-old has been interacting with B's puppy, I am under increasing pressure to adopt a pet myself.

Hmmm. Sounds like we will soon to be making yet another scouting trip to the SPCA, and I wonder whether the lower-maintenance option, a kitty, might be acceptable?

-30-

Cousins

Looking back, some of the most special relationships we get to have in life are with our cousins. Family but not exactly within our nuclear unit. We don't get to see them all the time, but whenever we do, it's special.

This post is dedicated to cousins. The four little people in these photos spent yesterday afternoon together -- cheering, fighting, competing, embracing, crying and laughing.

Living life to its fullest, from the ages of two months to four years and four months, and counting...

A fifth cousin is on the way.

Just Another Sunday...

...in the neighborhood.

Carnival 2011