Saturday Links

(Mt. Tam from Pt. Molate)

HEADLINES:

• US, Qatar and Egypt say mediators will work to finalise Gaza ceasefire deal (Al Jazeera)

• Kursk attack will force Russia to negotiate, says Zelensky aide (BBC)

• Trump vs Harris live: New poll shows trouble for Trump in Sun Belt states as Vance named least popular VP (Independent)

• Trump's tired, old act is getting him nowhere against Kamala Harris. How long until he loses control? (MSNBC)

• Republicans want Trump to drop the insults — but that’s all he’s got (WP)

• The Story That “Hillbilly Elegy” Doesn’t Tell (New Yorker)

• Supreme Court, for Now, Blocks Expanded Protections for Transgender Students in Some States (NYT)

• After record-breaking years, migrant crossings plunge at US-Mexico border (USA Today)

• ‘We should have better answers by now’: climate scientists baffled by unexpected pace of heating (Guardian)

• Rare ‘doomsday’ oarfish emerges off San Diego coast, exciting scientists (WP)

• Thailand's parliament elected political neophyte Paetongtarn Shinawatra as its youngest prime minister, only a day after she was thrust into the spotlight amid an unrelenting power struggle between the country's warring elites. (Reuters)

• Four Theories That Explain AI Art’s Default Vibe (Atlantic)

• No laughing matter - how AI is helping comedians write jokes (BBC)

• Why AI will not lead to a world without work (WEF)

• China Reduced To Barren Wasteland After Exporting Every Last Object (The Onion)

 

Other People's Stories

When I was teaching a course called “Memoir as Journalism” at both Stanford and OLLI, the main hurdle for many students seemed to be their doubts as to whether anyone else would even be interested in their story.

The solution, which I hit upon almost by accident, was to have each student present verbally an introduction to what they intended to write about their life for ten minutes or so in front of the rest of the class.

In every case, the affirmation from their classmates was immediate and universal — they always wanted to know more. And that motivated the story-tellers to keep going.

Over time, I also came to realize that the mere fear of writing itself was holding some of the students back. They could talk about their life, but writing about it was much more difficult.

For these students, I suggested alternatives — audio or video story-telling.

But beyond the mechanics, a much larger problem loomed over this whole business of whose stories got told. According to the book publishing industry, the memoirs of the rich, famous and powerful seemed to matter a lot.

Ordinary people’s not so much.

I begged to differ. Many of the stories that remained untold ought to be.

Then again, it’s all in the telling.

HEADLINES:

• Our new forecast for America’s presidential election (Economist)

• August 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 46% (Emerson)

• Pennsylvania 2024: Harris Has Slight Edge Over Trump In Tight Race, Gets Boost From Women, (Quinnipiac)

• Harris has opened up a second path to victory, according to The Post’s polling model (WP)

• Kamala Harris plans tax breaks for families in bid to cut costs (Financial Times)

• J.D. Vance Makes Wild Claim of What “Normal” Women Care About (TNR)

• Republicans practically beg Trump to change it up. He’s not listening. (WP)

• Medicare announces lower prices on 10 common, high-cost drugs (NBC)

• Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Is a Turning Point in the War (Foreign Affairs)

• Russia to evacuate thousands more from Kursk region attacked by Ukraine (Reuters)

• America’s Missed Chance in Afghanistan (Foreign Affairs)

• The Taliban’s three years in power and what lies ahead (Brookings)

• In Gaza, Israel’s Military Has Reached the End of the Line, U.S. Officials Say (NYT)

• What is mpox, where are the outbreaks and what is the WHO doing? (AP)

• Multiple people charged in connection with overdose death of actor Matthew Perry (NBC)

• Google's former CEO says the tech giant is losing out to OpenAI and Anthropic because staff are working from home (Business Insider)

• A world-first law in Europe is targeting artificial intelligence. Other countries can learn from it (The Conversation)

• A California Bill to Regulate A.I. Causes Alarm in Silicon Valley (NYT)

• See why AI detection tools can fail to catch election deepfakes (WP)

• Newly Sober God Admits He Has No Recollection Of Creating Universe (The Onion)

 

Flip-Floppers

One sure way you can tell we are in the middle of a heated election cycle is the candidates of both parties accuse each other of flip-flopping on the issues.

I always smile when I hear this term, because it reminds me of the fish my father had just caught when he laid them on the fish-cleaning table and drew his fish knife out of its sheathe.

They flipped and they flopped as if their lives were on the line. And, of course, they were.

But when it comes to our political leaders, do we really want people who can’t change? People so stubborn that they stick to positions even as conditions change? No, of course not.

On the other hand, many of the shifts in policy positions espoused by candidates are simply in search of votes. That are expedient but not principled.

The real question is not what they say during the heat of a campaign but what they do once in office. That’s who it’s best to judge leaders on their actual record rather than on promises made on the campaign trail. And the differences between the presidential candidates, based on their past performance, is legitimately fair game.

Lest we forget, there are enormous stakes in making the right choices for who ends up in higher office. Making the wrong choice may leave us much like those fish, flipping and flopping while the guy in charge draws his knife from its sheathe.

HEADLINES:

• Ukraine advances farther into Russia as Kursk attack enters second week, Zelensky says (CNN)

• The first-ever negotiations between the federal government and pharmaceutical companies have led to agreements that will lower the prices of 10 treatments, reducing costs for the Medicare program, the Biden administration announced early tosday. The reform has the potential to, just maybe, affect the November elections as well. [HuffPost]

• Nate Silver: Democrats more than doubled their chance of winning overnight (MSNBC)

• Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in 5 battleground states, tied in Georgia, poll finds (USA Today)

• A Brief History of Swing States in Presidential Races (Bloomberg)

• Migration has become one of Harris' biggest political liabilities (AP)

• Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz hit back at Republican attacks. Kamala Harris’s VP pick pushed back on questions about his military record. He’s also facing scrutiny for how he handled George Floyd protests in 2020. (WP)

• Lawyers are rarely kicked off cases. This pro-Trump one just was. (MSNBC)

• Why Trump keeps talking about fictional serial killer Hannibal Lecter (WP)

• U.S. Said to Consider a Breakup of Google to Address Search Monopoly (NYT)

• WHO declares mpox outbreaks in Africa a global health emergency as a new form of the virus spreads (AP)

• Rarely seen Titanic artefacts kept in secret warehouse (BBC)

• The Government Spends Millions to Open Grocery Stores in Food Deserts. The Real Test Is Their Survival. (ProPublica)

• Biden’s Gaza cease-fire plan teeters on brink ahead of high-stakes talks (WP)

• Gaza evacuations: No place left to go (Al Jazeera)

• Wyoming reporter caught using artificial intelligence to create fake quotes and stories (AP)

• Feeling old? Your molecules change rapidly around ages 44 and 60. (WP)

• How the World’s Oldest Humpback Whale Has Survived Is a Mystery (NYT)

• Here’s how much tech companies are spending to tell you AI is amazing (WP)

• The Big Risk for the Market: Becoming an AI Echo Chamber (WSJ)

• Tattered Banner Ad All That Remains Hanging Over Long-Abandoned Website (The Onion)

The Next Feather

(Following is an excerpt from an essay I wrote three years ago, just as we were pulling out from under the pandemic.)

"Yeah well, everyone here has got problems. Yours just may work out." -- Rick (Casablanca)

***

Some don't realize it yet, but this is one of those moments to savor. There has not been a time quite like this one previously in most of our lifetimes.

I only say most because I suspect there are a handful of 100-year-olds out there who know what I'm talking about.

The present moment is filled with romantic intrigue. We've all just stepped out of the shadows and are blinking at how bright the sun is. The tension is because we may well be headed back into the shadows all too soon.

So we've got to get on with it while we can.

Covid-19 was the longest night we've ever been through, with the exception of those who live too near the arctic circle. It also was a divisive night when it could and should have been unifying.

If we hadn't fought over it so pointlessly we would have seen it as a precious chance to grasp that all of us, and I mean allof us, were in a fight for our lives against a common enemy. That the enemy was a virus too small for the naked eye made the fight all the more intense.

The only thing I can compare this with is my imagination of that brief window of time when World War II had started in some places but not in all. Everybody knew what was coming but it wasn't here quite yet so millions of people suddenly had life-or-death decisions to make.

Should I stay or should I go? Huge migrations occurred all over the world. Families were split up, never to reunite. Couples who had reached the tipping point of love had to decide on the spot how they really felt about each other. There might not be another chance.

Of course love is the biggest of risk of all, so the stakes could not have been higher. My own parents married at that very point in history. I’m a child of their union.

***

Many of those I talk to are in transition right now and they feel a measure of urgency that is easy to comprehend.  During the pandemic it was difficult if not impossible to make big changes in their lives and that makes this time especially intense.

That's good news for me, I suppose, because I've always loved helping people when they are in transition. Not that being settled doesn't have its selling points -- you know which key opens your door, you know how the seatbelt in your car works, you know what's for breakfast and who that person next to you is.

By contrast, when you strike out for something new, you don't yet know any of those kinds of things. You may go someplace you've never been before, find yourself speaking a new language, eating food you'd swore you'd never try, wear a uniform you didn't know you'd like, hold tight to somebody you barely even knew existed until one special night not long ago.

Whether things like this happen or not, at times like these it just helps to call somebody who knows what it's like to be the next feather in the breeze.

One of my colleagues used to have as his mantra "change is good," and of course he wasn't the first to say it, just as I won't be the last.

Like all such truisms, you can't live by that philosophy in a literal sense because not all change is good for all people all of the time. Some changes are downright horrible.

But maintaining the status quo isn't always your best option either. 

You just have to figure out when to listen to that little whisper that this is your time to take off, even if you don't know which way the wind is blowing. 

HEADLINES:

• Poll Watch: Harris Leads Trump Nationally by 2.8% (46.1=43.3) (538)

• ‘The dumbest climate conversation of all time’: experts on the Musk-Trump interview (Guardian)

• Ukraine pummels Russia in a bid to carve out a bigger slice of territory (Reuters)

• Ukraine says it seized as much land in a week as Russia has so far this year. (CNN)

• At a Russian Border Post, Scenes of Ruin After Ukraine’s Surprise Attack (NYT)

• Iran officials suggest planned retaliation may be scrapped if Gaza ceasefire reached (Times of Israel)

• FBI probing alleged Iran hack attempts targeting Trump, Biden camps (WP)

• Tropical Storm Ernesto batters northeast Caribbean and aims at Puerto Rico as it strengthens (AP)

• A trio of silly, false claims that JD Vance makes about Kamala Harris (WP)

• Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? (Independent)

• Kamala Harris Takes Nine Point Lead Over Donald Trump in Wisconsin Poll (Newsweek)

• Trump is Looking Like a Loser Again (WSJ)

• Trump’s fantasy-based outbursts are getting out of hand, even for him (WP)

• Americans’ refusal to keep paying higher prices may be dealing a final blow to US inflation spike (AP)

• Elon Musk’s Surging Political Activism (New Yorker)

• Google Monopolization Ruling May Not Hold Up On Appeal (Forbes)

• They put out food for a lost dog for a year. He finally made it home. (WP)

• Piecing Together an Ancient Epic Was Slow Work. Until A.I. Got Involved. (NYT)

• Solar Power Investment Skyrockets Upon Discovery Of Massive Underground Deposit Of Sunlight (The Onion)

 

If Trump Loses

 Yesterday I delved into the numbers indicating that Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in the polls of voters nationally. Today she is up by 2.8 percent, so she is rapidly widening the gap.

But the next President will not be selected by the popular vote because we don’t have direct democracy in the U.S.

What matters instead is the Electoral College and in that regard, whoever prevails in the six “battleground” states will probably win the election.

There’s good news there for Harris as well. She now leads Trump among likely voters in three of those states, the so-called “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a margin of 50-46.

If these numbers reflect what happens on Election Day, Harris will almost certainly win the presidency, even if Trump wins the other three swing states, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Given the direction this race has taken, it’s not too soon to think about what could happen if Trump loses. He is already preparing his story line that the election will have been “stolen,” just as he maintains happened in 2020.

His baseless claims ignited an insurrection on January 6, 2021. If he loses again, his supporters may well descend into madness.

So what would happen then? Would there be riots by Trump’s fanatic fringe? Would the lame duck President have to declare martial law to maintain order? How long would it last? Can democracy survive?

Polls, no matter how accurate, cannot answer those questions…

HEADLINES:

• Putin says Ukraine's attack on Russia is aimed at ceasefire negotiations (Reuters)

• Trump rambles, slurs his way through Elon Musk interview. It was an unmitigated disaster. (USA Today)

• Trump Can’t Deal With Harris’s Success (Atlantic)

• ‘A different level than 2020’: Trump’s plan to steal election is taking shape (Guardian)

• Trump falsely claims Harris used AI to generate visuals depicting large crowds (USA Today)

• ‘AI’ crowds and unskewed polls: Trump prepares to reject another loss (WP)

• Trump is returning to X for a live interview with the platform’s owner, Elon Musk (AP)

• Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find (NYT)

• Inflation Hurts Most for the Things We Can’t Skimp On (WSJ)

• On the Edge by Nate Silver — the risk-takers who beat the market (Financial Times)

• How life-threatening are heat waves going to be with global warming? (WP)

• Defense secretary orders submarine to Middle East, accelerates arrival of strike group ahead of anticipated Iran attack (CNN)

• The Undoing of Israel (Foreign Affairs)

• Fearing war, unsettled at home, Iran weighs retaliation against Israel (WP)

• New Mars study suggests an ocean's worth of water may be hiding beneath the red dusty surface (AP)

• Horses can plan ahead and think strategically, scientists find (Guardian)

• Can You Be Emotionally Reliant on an A.I. Voice? OpenAI Says Yes. (NYT)

• 7 things ChatGPT can do you should try today (Tom’s Guide)

• Study: Gen Z Having Less Sex Due To Allure Of Leftovers At Home (The Onion)

The Latest

We’ve all learned to bring a healthy degree of skepticism to polls, especially those at this stage of a presidential election, i.e., with three months still to go. Even if the current polls are accurate, a lot can change over the next 90 days.

But the field of polling is dynamic in the sense that it is changing and evolving in real time. Pollsters have to take into account the changing demographics of the electorate and technological developments such as reliance on cell phones rather than land lines.

One of the ways the leading polling companies hedge against inaccuracy is by aggregating polls — this is what has helped 538 to prominence in recent years.

So I decided to take a closer look at 538’s current numbers at a slightly more granular level in the hope of better evaluating their accuracy.

According to 538, Harris is now leading Trump nationally by 2.4 percent, 45.9 - 43.5. These are averages of 14 recent polls that are considered reputable based on their performance over time.

Ten of the 14 queried registered voters (who may or may not be likely to vote), whereas the other four queried likely voters. Among registered voters, Harris leads in nine of the ten recent polls, Trump in one.

In the four polls of likely voters, two indicate the candidates are tied, and Harris leads in the other two.

As for the margins, the one poll that has Trump in front says he is up by 2 points. Of the 11 that have Harris in the lead, three have her at +1, two have her at +2, four have her at +3. one has her at +4. and one at +5.

So overall, Harris is leading in 11, Trump in 1 and 2 are even. By way of comparison, 11-1-2 would be a darn good record for a sports team. That is a winning percentage of 85.71.

Yet to Come

 (This one is from three years ago.)

* What if the Coronavirus Crisis Is Just a Trial Run? -- The year 2020 gave us a glimpse of something radically new: tensions in politics, finance and geopolitics intersecting with a natural shock on a global scale. (Adam Tooze/NYT)

***

If we've entered a new reality, as per today's top link from the Times, I for one welcome it. Yes the coronavirus is horrible, the political/economic/culture wars are dispiriting, and all of it fades into insignificance as we stare global climate change in the face.

I accept all that. But we've been long overdue to make fundamental changes in the way we live anyway and maybe now is our chance. It's time to take that darker path down into the woods and see where it leads.

Forests are one of the best places to think and feel. Trees communicate with each other through their roots, which connect far below the surface. They seek each other out, offer comfort and warn of danger.

When you're in a forest, if you let their whispers in, you'll hear the trees talking to you.

The same is true of other wild places. I've hiked beaches all over the world and the more remote the beach the more it has to say. Every beach is connected to some other shore by the tides that wash vast distances back and forth, carrying messages from one land mass to another.

If all of this sounds silly, consider your dreams. We classify them into good ones and nightmares, but they persist either way and there's no real escaping from them. Even waking up doesn't help.

But we also have our rational side, that wonderful ability to apply logic and collect evidence before we make decisions. Most of us try to make sense of what we do, if only so we can explain it to one another.

There are all sorts of economic theories suggesting that the sum of many irrational choices by individuals add up to a collective rationality. I may not be getting that exactly right but isn't that how economists explain the movements of the futures markets?

Quantum physics takes all of this out to the furthest place we've been able to venture intellectually, where time, space and consciousness all become relative. Starting with Einstein, physicists have been either getting clearer or cloudier as time passes. Take your pick.

Somewhere beyond the rational is the instinctive, where we know what we can trust when we hear it from the trees or the ocean or our dreams -- or our hearts. They propel us forward to explore.

This may be the path to a future where everything changes. We may be living with wave after wave of pandemics, natural disasters, and other disruptions. Our first instinct may be to huddle down in place, become more conservative, seek what is safe and familiar.

Or we may venture out, try to embrace the unknown and learn from it.

Everyone alive now is engaged in this struggle whether we acknowledge it or not. We have a will to survive but at times we get overwhelmed and want to give up. Don't give up.

The best part is yet to come.

HEADLINES:

• Israeli airstrike on a Gaza school used as a shelter kills at least 80, Palestinian officials say (AP)

• Israeli attack on Gaza school renews calls for US to end support for Israel (Al Jazeera)

• Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find — New surveys of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania taken this week offer the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for the Democratic Party since President Biden abandoned his re-election bid. (NYT)

• Harris rallies crowds on abortion message, while Trump treads lightly (WP)

• A Trump campaign built to battle Biden is forced to recalibrate to Kamala Harris (NPR)

• Worried about losing to Kamala, Trump mad he can’t ‘live in the past’: Melber breakdown (MSNBC)

• Trump’s Helicopter Jumble Is Only His Latest Mix-Up (Mother Jones)

• The GOP’s new worry: Trump can’t drive a coherent message (WP)

• “Google is a Monopolist” – Wrong and Right Ways to Think About Remedies (Tech Policy)

• 'Thousands' of troops part of incursion aiming to 'destabilise' Russia, says top Ukrainian official (France24)

• As Ukraine Pushes Deeper Into Russia, Moscow Sends Reinforcements (NYT)

• Iran will deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia (Reuters)

• Robots can now train themselves with new "practice makes perfect" algorithm (TechSpot)

• AI could be the breakthrough that allows humanoid robots to jump from science fiction to reality (The Conversation)

• Generative AI Has a 'Shoplifting' Problem. This Startup CEO Has a Plan to Fix It (Wired)

• Report Finds It Impossible To Save Money (The Onion)