The Meddlers

Every four years, reports start appearing about attempts by foreign countries to influence the outcome of our national elections. They’ve become predictable; Russia, China, Iran — those considered our main adversaries — are launching disinformation campaigns designed to boost one candidate or the other.

Less publicized are the efforts by our friends like England, France, Germany or Israel, to do the same thing.

If a full accounting of the matter were to be done, it would document the fact that virtually any country of any size around the world has a major stake in the U.S. election, and acts accordingly. And the reason is obvious: We have by far the biggest economy in the world, the most advanced technology, the greatest wealth and the most feared military.

So the consequences of any change in political direction in the U.S. would be felt all over the world. This has long been true — reports of foreign meddling in our elections date back to the earliest days of the republic. In 1796, for example, a French agent released private information to the public to try and sway the election in favor of Thomas Jefferson. But the difference in our time is that hyper-globalization of the world’s economy since the 1990s has kicked election meddling into overdrive.

Americans started feeling with new intensity the effects of globalization with the emergence of trade deals like NAFTA, and the loss of manufacturing jobs to countries with cheaper labor forces.

But it was only when Covid hit, did the complexity of the global supply chains become apparent, as did our vulnerability to obtaining basic goods in a crisis. These are problems, much like the pandemic itself, that cannot actually be solved locally; they require global solutions.

Politicians can argue about the costs and benefits of globalization, but they are virtually powerless to slow it down, let alone stop it. They may be able to lessen the deleterious domestic effects with tariffs, quotas, subsidies and other protectionist moves. But these come with risks of their own and often go hand-in-hand with nativist, anti-immigrant, regressive political campaigns that prove self-defeating in the long term.

And they are essentially ahistorical in nature.

So it is natural that our fierce domestic debates over policy differences would be closely monitored around the world. Other countries’ entire political economies may rise or fall depending on which direction the U.S. takes.

These fundamental matters are in the end more significant than the surface ideological concerns that seem to drive foreign interference in our election cycles. In an inter-connected world economy, everybody has a stake in the game.

And the game starts here.

HEADLINES:

• ‘I’m a black NAZI!’: NC GOP nominee for governor made dozens of disturbing comments on porn forum (CNN)

• Robinson says he’s staying in NC governor’s race after bombshell CNN report (The Hill)

• Springfield children 'fearful' amid dozens of bomb threats after false migrant rumors (NBC)

• How the Trump Campaign Ran With Rumors About Pet-Eating Migrants—After Being Told They Weren’t True (WSJ)

• GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance’s original racist lie about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, has been proven wrong time and time again — but now he’s back with a new one — and another one. [HuffPost] 

• Evangelicals for Harris want to pull their fellow believers away from Trump (AP)

• A California man is part of a wave of Donald Trump supporters who bombard the ex-president’s opponents with threatening messages worded carefully to avoid arrest. As fears of violence rise ahead of the election, has he crossed a line? (Reuters)

• Voters view Harris more favorably as she settles into role atop Democratic ticket: AP-NORC poll (AP)

• How Israel Built a Modern-Day Trojan Horse: Exploding Pagers (NYT)

• Pager attack brings to life long-feared supply chain threat (WP)

• Israeli air attack on Beirut kills three as cross-border fire intensifies (Al Jazeera)

• Israeli airstrikes hit south Lebanon as Hezbollah accuses it of crossing ‘all red lines’ (Politico)

• New research points to raccoon dogs in Wuhan market as pandemic trigger. It's controversial (NPR)

• US denies claim CIA plotted to kill Venezuela president (BBC)

• In an Unprecedented Move, Ohio Is Funding the Construction of Private Religious Schools (ProPublica)

• Rampant adoption fraud separated generations of South Korean children from their families (AP)

• New audio disputes ruling that stripped Jordan Chiles of Olympic medal (WP)

• Apple Intelligence is now available in public betas (Verge)

• Tech Jobs Have Dried Up—and Aren’t Coming Back Soon (WSJ)

• Taylor Swift Breaks Political Silence To Throw Support Behind Restoring Shōgun To Throne Of Japan (The Onion)

 

What Is and What Isn't

“One way of thinking about science is that it’s a check against the natural human tendency to see patterns that might not be there. It’s a way of knowing when a pattern is real and when it’s a trick of your mind.” — Jason Fagone, The Woman Who Smashed Codes

Whenever we learn something new and useful in one field, it often proves useful in other fields. 

Lately I’ve been exploring the remarkable life and accomplishments of Elizebeth Smith Friedman, arguably the greatest American codebreaker in our history.

As a self-taught cryptanalyst, she deciphered enemy codes during World Wars I and II; in between, she helped the Treasury Department take down gangsters including Al Capone.

Journalist Jason Fagone’s book quoted above is an entertaining and informative biography of this extraordinary woman’s story, but there also is a PBS documentary series,  The Codebreaker, that is excellent.

Understanding the difference between patterns, real and imagined, can be applied to thinking about an entirely different matter than cryptology — and that is the endless conspiracy theories that pollute so much of our current public life.

From the claims by Laura Loomer that immigrants are eating our pets to the anti-vaccination pronouncements by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., to the utter nonsense fostered by Donald Trump, a sizable portion of the public has been buying into these baseless theories that are demonstrably false.

And that not only is an example of the difference between science and “tricks of the mind,” it is precisely what sets real journalism apart from the junk too many consume on Fox News and social media.

"So little was known in this country of codes and ciphers when the United States entered World War I, that we ourselves had to be the learners, the workers and the teachers all at one and the same time," Friedman once said of her work.

That is an accurate summation of the state of the under-informed American public today. So little is known of the facts of our world that we all need to become learners, workers and teachers at the same time. That’s why we desperately need to bring back real, honest journalism to help us do what the codebreakers did — save our democracy from an unacceptable alternative — authoritarianism.

(This essay is updated from a year ago.)

HEADLINES:

• Second Apparent Assassination Attempt on Trump Prompts Alarm Abroad (NYT)

• Violent threats and attacks escalate tensions in Trump-Harris race (WP)

• Russia goes all-out with covert disinformation aimed at Harris, Microsoft report says (AP)

• Fed Cuts Rates by Half Percentage Point (WSJ)

• U.S. overdose deaths plummet, saving thousands of lives (NPR)

• Pennsylvania poll shows Harris leading Trump by 1 point (The Hill)

• The American right is inciting a pogrom against Haitian immigrants in Ohio (Guardian)

• Far From Ohio, Haitian Americans Feel the Sting of Threats in Springfield (NYT)

• How the Trump Campaign Ran With Rumors About Pet-Eating Migrants—After Being Told They Weren’t True (WSJ)

• US launches online passport renewal service (CNN)

• Hezbollah hand-held radios detonate across Lebanon (Reuters) 

• Why did Israel blow up hundreds of Hezbollah pagers — and what might happen next? (NBC)

• Israel’s Strategic Win (Atlantic)

• The Taliban’s Misogyny Finally Needs a U.S. Response (Foreign Affairs)

• A bottle of water per email: the hidden environmental costs of using AI chatbots (WP)

• OpenAI Says Its New Models Perform Like An ‘Extremely Smart PhD’ (Forbes)

• Microscale kirigami robot folds into 3D shapes and crawls (Cornell)

• US to convene global AI safety summit in November (Reuters)

• Injured Cyclist Briefly Regains Consciousness To See RFK Jr. Dragging Him Into Kitchen (The Onion)

The Blue Wall "3"

When it comes to national political journalists who can be trusted to always get things right, Ron Brownstein has long been up near the top of my personal list.

He also was the first to come up with the term “blue wall” to describe the three rust-belt states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that tend to vote as a bloc. In recent election cycles, that bloc has determined who gets elected President.

They went narrowly for Trump in 2016, for Biden narrowly in 2020, and this year they all seem very narrowly divided once again.

To understand in detail the dynamics at play in the three states this time around, I strongly recommend Brownstein’s latest piece for CNN. He points out that the states remain so similar in their demographics, economics and the issues that concern their voters that they can almost be considered as one state, which he playfully calls “Mi-Pa-Wi.” That has a perhaps fittingly Native American ring to it.

In order to dig into the latest electoral trends in Mi-Pa-Wi, I of course went through the most recent polls at 538. There I found what may tentatively considered good news emerging for Kamala Harris.

As of this morning, she leads Trump by 3 points in Wisconsin, 1.8 points in Michigan, and 0.8 points in Pennsylvania, and those leads have all increased in recent days.

It’s still early but if Harris wins Mi-Pa-Wi plus the “blue dot” district in Nebraska, she will have the 270 electoral votes needed to become President.

P.S. The first and only time I remember meeting Brownstein in person was when he stopped by HotWired in 1996. We had an extended conversation about how technology was changing media, and I was impressed by his unbiased, analytical way of thinking.

HEADLINES: 

• Why these three states are the most consistent tipping point in American politics (CNN)

• Trump, Outrage and the Modern Era of Political Violence (NYT)

• Trump’s golf outings have long concerned Secret Service (WP)

• Overseas threats hit the Ohio city where Trump and Vance lied about Haitians eating pets (AP)

• Laura Loomer Is Where Republicans Draw the Line (Atlantic)

• The first graders who survived Sandy Hook will vote in their first presidential election (NBC)

• Election officials prepare for threats with panic buttons and bulletproof glass (AP)

• What to know about the growth of the Haitian American community in the U.S. (Axios)

• Senate Republicans block IVF bill, as Democrats elevate issue ahead of November election (NPR)

• Judge orders Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs jailed in sex trafficking and racketeering charges (AP)

• How Did Thousands of Pagers Used by Hezbollah Explode at the Same Time? (WSJ)

• Hezbollah vows to punish Israel after pager explosions across Lebanon (Reuters)

• Vets helping Ukraine worry Trump assassination attempt suspect will hurt their cause (NPR)

• Israeli Defense Minister Tells U.S. Military Action Against Hezbollah Is Needed (NYT)

• Democracy declined for 8th straight year around the globe, institute finds (AP)

• US economy on solid ground as retail sales surprise on the upside (Reuters)

• Scientists just figured out how many chemicals enter our bodies from food packaging (WP)

• Ban warnings fly as users dare to probe the “thoughts” of OpenAI’s latest model (ArsTechnica)

• OpenAI says the latest ChatGPT can ‘think’ – and I have thoughts (Guardian)

• Why OpenAI’s new model is such a big deal (Technology Review)

• OpenAI’s new model is better at reasoning and, occasionally, deceiving (Verge)

• Our digital lives need massive data centers. Here’s what goes on inside of them. (WP)

• Increasingly Paranoid Campbell’s Begins Stockpiling All Its Soup To Prepare For Doomsday (The Onion)

 

The Ghosts of Balkh

 (NOTE: I published the first version of this essay in 2021 right after the Taliban took power in Afghanistan. It appears in an anthology published by Journal of the Plague Years. This version has been edited for clarity.)

This week for me and many others who love Afghanistan has been a struggle. It's difficult to express our feelings about the situation in English; it would be much easier in Dari. That language encourages the intimacy of connection and the pain of loss in ways it is awkward to do in English, as wonderful as our language is in other ways.

English is a language of the brain; Dari is a language of the heart.

When you encounter a friend in a village in Afghanistan, you both stop where you were headed to embrace, hold hands and inquire about each other's heart, body, mind, family, and so on. It can be a long list and if you've not met recently, these greetings may take a while. 

And when you really stop and  think about it, what is it that matters more in life than expressing how we feel about each other?

Money? Fame? Power? Possessions? Accomplishments? Awards?

I don't think so.

In Dari you are able to say "my heart loves your heart" in a way that does not imply romantic love but does capture how much you truly care for each other. It doesn't sound odd at all.

Meanwhile, in America all too often our encounters start with "How are you?" And end with "Fine. You?"

In fact it is so unsatisfying to me that I try, and I know this is weird, to adapt something of Dari rituals when talking with my American friends. Each person is made of specific qualities I value, so despite the limitations of our language, I always try to say what I mean and to mean what I say. 

Especially when I say "I love you," that is exactly how I feel.

***

As an aggregator of the news, one of my main goals is to locate what is hopeful about otherwise crushing developments if I can, but in the case of Afghanistan right now this is difficult.

Some news reports suggest that the Taliban have fundamentally changed, but I doubt that. They say they will extend amnesty to government workers, respect the rights of women, and preside over a peaceful transition of power, but those are empty promises until we see proof.

Meanwhile, there is plenty of historical precedent for what usually happens when guerrilla forces assume power, and that record is soaked with the blood of innocents.

Sadly, Afghanistan has been criss-crossed by conquerers throughout its recorded history. Just to mention a few of the empires that resulted: Alexander the Great and his Macedonians, the Greco-Bactrians, Kushans, Indo-Sassanids, Kabul Shahi, Saffarids, Samanids, Ghaznavids, Ghurids, Kartids, Timurids, Hotakis and the Durranis.

In their oral histories, Afghans most often bring up the Mongol invaders, starting with Genghis Khan in 1221. And they talk about him and others as if they are still around the next bend. 

For example, just north of the town of Taloqan is a magnificent landmark known as کوه بز سیاه, which translates as Black Goat Mountain.

While riding in the back of a truck from Khanabad packed with people, goats and chickens fifty years ago, I spoke with a man who recounted stories that have been passed from father to son over the past thousand years.

"When they rode in last time, the Mongols cut off the heads of a million people," he said, repeating an account that I had heard many times before. 

"And they will be back. Just on the other side of Black Goat Mountain there are hundreds of thousands of Mongols waiting to return."

I guess he was referring to the peaceful Uzbek population of Takhar Province, living in what has long been a poor agricultural area.

A few hundred miles to the west of Takhar, during a visit to Mazar-e-Sharif, I heard similar tales about the Hazara population living in a nearby isolated valley. "They will ride in here soon, so watch out."

Nearby are the ruins of Balkh, a legendary city in the pre-Mongol era, with some of the most ghostly remains I have ever visited. Somewhere in my boxes in storage may still be the shards of pottery I collected at the site, which appeared to be many centuries old.

Balkh is where historians confirm that Mongol hordes did in fact decapitate many residents when they struck, and if the eerie winds whistling through the area are not the voices of those long dead, my imagination must have betrayed me.

Among Afghanistan's intractable problems is the stark reality that it less an actual country than the cobbled together homeland for at least seven major tribal groups. Besides the Uzbeks and the Hazara, there are the Tajiks, Pashtus, Turkomans, Baluchis, and Nuristanis.

Plus four or five smaller groups, most notably the Kochi, who are nomads.

The name of the country means "Land of the Afghans," which is what the largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns, call themselves. That name leaves every other group out, which complicates matters immensely.

My point here is that Afghanistan has plenty of internal problems without outsiders like the British, Russians and Americans getting involved. No foreign occupier ever stays for long anyway, because the local people simply won't tolerate them.

And once the foreigners leave, the Afghans get back to business as usual. What that means is inter-ethnic competition and violence. 

So as of August 2021, after decades of operating as a guerrilla army, the Taliban have to figure out how to somehow govern what many believe to be an ungovernable land. Not only are the traditional tribal loyalties an issue, the big cities, especially Kabul, have modernized over the past 20 years and millions of men and women are now educated.

The educated class wants nothing of the ancient ways. They want what all modern people want — a peaceful life, a better life. Will the Taliban throw all of that progress away and chop off the head of the modernizing society they've inherited? Or will they grow into the moment and embrace the future? 

The ghosts of Balkh have been waiting a thousand years for the answers to those questions.

***

On Friday afternoon, my despair over Afghanistan was counter-balanced by an outing to a favorite spot with a friend. It was a slightly smokey day in the Bay Area from the distant wildfires but the smoke stayed high while we stayed low. 

We stopped at a coffee house for a spell and then she drove us through an ancient tunnel to the edge of the bay where you can smell the salt in the air. 

All of this reminded me how important it is to celebrate beauty and hope and the love of friendship even as we mourn the horror and sadness of the world around us. 

At the end of the day, as the sun shrank to the west, the smoke stayed high, but down at the surface of the earth the air still smelled sweet.

HEADLINES:

• Secret Service 'aware' of Elon Musk post about Harris, Biden (BBC)

• Suspected Trump Gunman Was Near Golf Course for 12 Hours Before Shooting (WSJ)

• Suspect’s Self-Published Book Assails Trump, Hinting at Approval of His Killing (NYT)

• Suspected Trump golf course gunman tried to join Ukraine war, faced weapons charges (WP)

• Trump Reacts to Assassination Attempt by Making Things Far, Far Worse (TNR)

• The problem(s) with Trump blaming Dems for apparent assassination attempt (MSNBC)

• Political violence becomes America's new norm - but is still shocking (BBC)

• Why Don’t Younger Americans Vote? (Foreign Policy)

• Trump Throws a Tantrum Over Taylor Swift’s Kamala Harris Endorsement (Teen Vogue)

• Colleges and schools in Springfield, Ohio, close after receiving threats linked to false claims about Haitian immigrants (CNN)

• Why Thousands of Haitians Have Settled in Springfield, Ohio (NYT)

• Brain scans reveal most detailed picture yet of pregnancy’s effect on a mother’s brain (WP)

• Death toll rises as flooding forces mass evacuations across Central Europe (AP)

• Mexico's judicial reform overhauling the country's courts, which will allow voters to elect judges, officially took effect after the text of the constitutional changes was published in the government gazette. (Reuters)

• Caitlin Clark breaks WNBA rookie scoring record as historic season rolls on (WP)

• OpenAI’s New o1 Model Leverages Chain-Of-Thought Double-Checking To Reduce AI Hallucinations And Boost AI Safety (Forbes)

• Trump Warns Immigrants Taking All The Good Vanity Plates (The Onion)

Venom on the Fringe

When a political leader espouses messages based on hate, fear and lies, bad things happen. A campaign based on that kind of rhetoric is likely to provoke violence, both for and against the candidate.

As our society attempts to process the news of what was apparently another assassination attempt against Donald Trump yesterday, it makes one wonder whether the former President will ever temper his rhetoric, and also whether we are in for more such incidents in the weeks and months ahead.

Some sort of toxic venom seems to have been unleashed in the fringes of our social order.

Hate speech is dangerous, especially in such a heavily armed, polarized society as ours. As more information emerges about the would-be assassin, especially his motives and views, this unfortunate event may have other repercussions in the short term and perhaps beyond. 

Who knows where this will lead, but this much is clear:

An injured society badly in need of healing has just suffered a new wound.

HEADLINES: 

• FBI investigating apparent assassination attempt of Trump in Florida (CNN)

• Armed with AK-47, filming with GoPro, fleeing in Nissan: What we know about Trump shooting suspect Ryan Routh (Independent)

• Trump can’t accept his poor debate. He’s spiraled into conspiracy theories. (WP)

• Trump’s VP pick JD Vance defends spreading false story about migrants (Al Jazeera)

• JD Vance defends baseless rumor about Haitian immigrants eating pets (CNN)

• Trump’s Lie Is Another Test for Christian America (Atlantic)

• Trump lashes out: "I hate Taylor Swift" (Axios)

• Haitians in Ohio find solidarity at church after chaotic week of false pet-eating claims (AP)

• A Georgia Work Program Previews How Trump Could Reshape Medicaid (NYT)

• ‘Catastrophe of epic proportions’: eight drown in Europe amid heavy floods (Guardian)

• Taliban begins enforcing new draconian laws, and Afghan women despair (WP)

• The crime of being a woman in Afghanistan: ‘A Taliban can knock on your door at night, rape you, take you away and marry you’ (El Pais)

• America keeps Ukraine fighting with its hands tied (Economist)

• To save these nearly-extinct birds scientists are turning to the once unthinkable (WP)

• FDA approves some Apple AirPods to be used as hearing aids (NPR)

• Microsoft’s Hypocrisy on AI (Atlantic)

• Moscow Expels 6 British Diplomats Who Would Not Shut Up About ‘Doctor Who’ (The Onion)

 

The Man Who Would Be King

Every American schoolchild learns the story. This country was founded after a guerrilla army of colonialists staged a rebellion against a distant king. After overcoming the king’s mighty army, the rebels came together to set up a system of government to prevent the rise of kings here, and for the past 250 years that has been successful.

Occasionally there have been men who tried to attain king-like powers, but the Constitutional system of checks and balances has prevented them from doing so.

That’s the story and it’s true.

But the story doesn’t have an ending yet. By its nature it’s an evolving story. We now have a man in our midst who would be king if he could be, and millions of Americans have swallowed his claim that he embodies their sense of grievance and deserves to be returned to power.

The first time he became President, helped by foreign interference, a racist reaction to the rise of the first black man to hold the job, and a deep-seated fear of the emergence of a diverse, globalized society that seemed to replacing what was familiar and romanticized as a golden age, he snuck into office with a minority of the popular vote.

That was one of the lowest moments in American history. But there was worse to come.

When four years later this man lost both the popular vote and the all-important electoral vote by a wide margin, for a brief moment it seemed that democracy had prevailed again.

Rather than skulk away in defeat, however, this power-mad despot desperately tried to undermine the outcome in every way he could, ultimately inciting a mob of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol in an insurrection.

This was the lowest point in our history, at least since the Civil War.

The mob was repelled and democracy survived, but bruised and battered.

But now he’s back. This is his third attempt to seize power and by now he is both more desperate and much better prepared for the battle. The legal system is strained to the breaking point trying to hold him accountable for his many crimes, but his fierce army of zombie-like followers believe that it is the system that is wrong, not him.

That’s the present political moment. God help us and God help America. Democracy hangs in the balance.

(I first published a version of this essay one year ago.)

HEADLINES: 

• Harris and Trump place their chips on different states to win White House (WP)

• Threats Against Haitians in Ohio Heighten as Trump Claims Ignorance (Rolling Stone)

• How a false rumor about pets in Ohio and Laura Loomer’s presence helped derail Trump’s planned attacks on Harris (CNN)

• Josh Shapiro on How Kamala Harris Can Win Pennsylvania (New Yorker)

• Harris, Trump in tense battle over Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania (WP)

• Project 2025 seeks to resurrect a 151-yr-old law to subordinate women (MSNBC)

• US rejects claims of CIA involvement in alleged plot to kill Maduro after Venezuela arrests six (Guardian)

• Tension mounts over Ukraine missiles (Reuters)

• NATO military committee chair, others back Ukraine’s use of long range weapons to hit Russia (AP)

• Putin's options for Ukraine missiles response include nuclear test, experts say (Reuters)

• Israeli airstrikes kill 14 people in Gaza (Politico)

• Biden Administration Ratchets Up Tariffs on Chinese Goods (NYT)

• Can Afghanistan’s Economy Survive Without Aid? (Diplomat)

• Apple Has a Hot New Product. It’s a Hearing Aid. (WSJ)

• Cooler weather brings relief to firefighters battling California’s three massive blazes (NBC)

• US economy is heading for soft landing, FT survey says (Financial Times)

• DeepMind’s new AI teaches robots to tie shoelaces and handle complex tasks (IE)

• How To Prompt The New ChatGPT: Advice From OpenAI (Forbes)

• OpenAI’s Big Reset (Atlantic)

• U-Haul Offers Discount For Customers Who Will Just Move Back Home In 18 Months After Failure To Make It In Major City (The Onion)