The Essence of Leadership

This fall's Presidential election is the most critical in a generation, maybe two. Some obvious parallels exist with the 1960 contest between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. But, from a governance perspective, a better precedent would be the 1932 election between Franklyn D. Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.

Then, like now, a crisis in the role of government in the lives of its people is a central, if poorly understood, issue. The economy is lurching, and we are living through a time of extended international tension.

Of course, we are at a different point in history. Wise leaders now must comprehend globalization and the transformation wrought by digital technology in all of their complexities. The old foreign policy paradigms -- us (good) against them (evil) -- no longer suffices. I'm not saying there are not bad guys -- there are extremely bad guys out there. I'm saying that the line between "us" and "them" has eroded substantially

The reason the Bush administration gave for issuing a guarantee to save the faltering Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last week is that they are "too big to fail." No kidding. They also have so much foreign investment behind them that to allow them to fail would trigger a global financial panic -- not an option anyone likes to contemplate.

"We" are no longer who we were in 1932, or even in 1960. Look around, and see the rich integration of every ethnic, racial, religious, and cultural group of the human species, all living in peace here in America. Our diversity is our greatest weapon against the forces of hate, fear, and unchecked nationalism.

The unchecked nationalists of the '30s were, of course, Hitler's Nazis, one of the most evil regimes in modern history. But, as many people as the Nazis exterminated, they were neophytes compared to the brutal version of Communism practiced by Josef Stalin, and its stepchild, the genocidal evil that swept through southeast Asia in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos in the '70s.

When I was still in school, I considered U.S. involvement in that area "imperialism" -- and in retrospect there was tangible evidence in support of that position -- but my comprehension of the larger picture fell short, analytically. What the conflict was really about was geopolitical posturing between "great powers" -- the U.S., China, and Russia.

In the end, none of these great powers prevailed. Instead, the people of Southeast Asia took back control of their own fate, which -- in a pre-globalization sense -- is exactly what should have happened. Thus, the U.S. did not "lose" the Vietnam War; the Vietnamese people regained control over their own land and their own destiny.

Thanks to this "victory," these days, they are attempting to become close trading partners and allies with the United States, a society the Vietnamese admire deeply. Such is the cycle of history.

Domestically, Americans are suffering through the equivalent of an acid reflex discomfort as our overheated housing industry, fueled by greed and debt, collapses under its own bloated and corrupt weight.

I do not want to sound heartless, but as one who has bought and sold five houses, three in the Bay Area, over the past 20 years, I did learn to read the fine print on all of those documents I was signing. And, despite the winks and the nods from real estate "agents," (i.e., hustlers), I never lied about my income or debts or any other financial factor just to get a loan. In fact, I always understated my assets, holding some in reserve so that the most important party to the deal -- me -- could be assured that the loan would truly be affordable.

From my perspective, getting the home was not the point -- being confident that I would be able to pay for was what mattered. As it turned out, I always could until I made my fatal financial mistake the 5th time around, buying a house at an inflated price in order to be able to relocate my family back to San Francisco after a failed attempt to relocate to the Washington, D.C., area.

It wasn't a failure on a personal or professional level for me. I quickly grew to like it back east, as any political news junkie understands. The best part, professionally, is I was a short flight or train ride away from the great center of the media/publishing industry -- New York.

My love affair with New York goes back decades. Had I lived a different life, without family obligations; or, if I had succeeded at a greater level on the West Coast, I could have afforded to move to New York.

But I didn't and I didn't. Any hopes of becoming an East-Coaster dissolved when my second family's D.C. experiment did not work out to my second wife's expectations, so I secured a job back out in Silicon Valley, and made a hasty decision to purchase an expensive house in Noe Valley.

In our family, we call this the "pink house," since its exterior was painted pink at the time.

It was summer of the year 2000 and my new job, though it involved a commute down to Redwood City, was at a company that -- from the outside -- looked likely to generate enough wealth via stock options for me to retire by age 56, at that point just three years hence.

It didn't turn out that way. For once I hadn't studied the fine print.

***

The next President, whoever that is, faces the need to transform the relationship between government and the U.S. economy in ways every much as profound as was necessary in 1932. The power of free markets and free trade are beyond debate. The inability of centralized governments to efficiently run economies or provide for their citizens is a matter of record.

Those points settled, what is the proper role for government?

To me, the most troubling aspect of the Fannie & Freddie intervention is that these institutions are purportedly "private" companies. But that all goes back to the wink and the nod that got so many home-buyers in trouble. The government never said it would step in to save these giant financial units, but everyone assumed that it would.

Last week, it turned out that everyone was right. So, what is the meaning of the word "everyone." In this case, it means investors, stockholders, speculators, foreign governments -- everyone except the American citizen who is working hard and trying to buy a house.

We are not part of the winning crowd. When our government guarantees to underwrite a failing company, we pay the bill through our taxes. And, mind you, this is not the old "tax and spend" liberal crowd who's propping up failure; this is the "compassionate conservative" wing of the Republican Party.

Turns out the compassionate part isn't directed toward us, but toward speculators, naked short-sellers, and flip traders. As far as I'm concerned, these greedy bastards should all rot in hell.

The next President has to sort through all of this mess and establish some new regulatory parameters for the role of government in helping guide an economy that no longer resides mainly at home. It's an economy that is dominated by companies earning much more money overseas than here -- to them, the failing dollar is a good thing.

It's you and me, my friends, who need an advocate who grasps the implications of what I am describing here. We need a new social compact. We need a new regulatory philosophy. We must eliminate the power of big money in politics, because it is the big money spent by Fannie & Freddie's lobbyists that created the blind eye in Congress and the White House that allowed them Mac twins to acquire a massive portfolio of bad loans.

For a long time, I liked McCain because of his attempt to reform the influence of money in politics. Under the pressure of running for President, he appears to be backing away from that commitment. I like Obama for lots of reasons, but I've not yet heard what I need to hear about his economic regulatory vision.

In fact, neither McCain nor Obama has yet articulated an economic regulation regime of the sort I am waiting for. If one of them does, that will be the candidate who gets my vote come November.

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Stalking a Hummingbird

It's a singular pleasure, this Saturday morning, to sit on my back porch, with the luxury of freedom to simply update this blog and watch for an elusive hummingbird to come within range of my camera. There, just now, she's appeared, but I dare not move to fetch my camera, lest her visit is too brief to shoot.

This tiny creature flutters around my yard up from the heather and jasmine vines to explore the apple and plum trees. She flits about so suddenly that she's easy to track but almost impossible to capture on film.

The sky is pure blue today following a period of fog and clouds. High overhead a half dozen seagulls circle; from their elevation this entire city is visible as the 49-square mile peninsula it is, a slender slice of land, green and white, thrusting out into the vast blue ocean.

***

Now it's afternoon. We've checked in at a hotel at Coyote Point, partway down that peninsula, on the Bay side. This is the next step up from a "staycation," in this season of high gas prices. It's a mini-cation, just down the road. It will last exactly one night.

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Grandsons Unite!

James Lawrence Tiglao greets Luca Santiago Augier-Comolli.

These are my grandsons. As the editor of Predictify, I predict a great future for both of them!

Welcome, Grandson!

Baby boy Augier-Comolli was born in Portland, Oregon, today, July 23, 2008, at 11:05 a.m., weighing 9 lb. 4 oz., and measuring 20.5 inches in length.

That compares with his Mom, who at birth was only 5 lb. 3 oz. and 18 inches in length. It's a safe bet her son is going to be taller than Laila by age 13 or so...But I'm quite sure he'll always look up to her, as in fact all of us in this large, extended family do.

Congratulations, Laila and Loic!

We understand a number of first names are still under consideration.

Here's an early photo of the baby with his father.




***


And that's the headline news here at Hotweir today. Everything else can wait...


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Louis Rossetto: Our First "Featured Predictifier"

Predictify Launches “Featured Predictifier” Program

New Program Provides Forum for Noteworthy Guest Contributors to Tap Predictify Users' Collective Wisdom


Redwood City, Ca – July 22, 2008 – Predictify, an online prediction platform that leverages the wisdom of crowds to add an interactive, forward-looking dimension to the news, is launching its “Featured Predictifier” Program on July 22.

Each week the program will feature a noteworthy guest contributor, or Featured Predictifier, who will pose a question of importance to them and society at large on Predictify’s homepage.

By featuring prominent individuals from a variety of fields, such as public service, philanthropy, and business, Predictify will add a new dimension to its forward-looking, interactive take on the news. In return, Featured Predictifiers will gain access to the unique insight generated by the collective wisdom of Predictify’s audience as they make predictions and engage in discussion with other members.

“The Featured Predictifier program provides a unique forum for prominent individuals to pose thought-provoking questions to our highly-engaged audience,” said David Weir, Predictify’s Editor-in-Chief. “I predict that both our users and our guest contributors will love it.”

The first Featured Predictifier will be Louis Rossetto, co-founder of Wired magazine and former CEO of Wired Ventures. In 1991, Rossetto and his partner Jane Metcalfe resettled from Europe to the U.S. to raise capital for Wired, and they launched the magazine on a shoestring budget in San Francisco in January 1993.

Rossetto is widely recognized as a visionary who foresaw the transformation of the media industry that would result in the Internet Age. According to Wikipedia, "Wired was greatly admired for its bold design and its coverage of digital culture. Its deliberately provocative editorial reflected Rossetto's beliefs in a far-reaching ‘digital revolution’ based on global consciousness and networked markets. Under Rossetto's five years as editor, the magazine won two National Magazine Awards for General Excellence, and one National Magazine Award for Design." Consistent with his passion for digitization, Rosetto will pose a question on which brand-name magazine will be the first to abandon the field of print publishing.

In addition to Mr. Rosetto, other Featured Predictifiers in coming weeks will include:

* Steve Westly, formerly Controller for the State of California;
* Raymond Nasr, former Director of Executive Communications at Google;
* Greg Stuart, former CEO of the Internet Advertising Bureau;
* Phil Bronstein, Editor at Large, San Francisco Chronicle;
* Alana Conner, PhD, Psychology; Senior Editor, Stanford Social Innovation Review;
* Andrew Golis, Deputy Publisher, Talking Points Memo;
* Perla Ni, Founder of GreatNonprofits.org

About Predictify
Predictify is a community-based prediction platform that makes predicting real-world events easy and fun. Users can research, discuss and predict the future, build a reputation based on their accuracy, and even get paid real money when they’re right. Marketers can create awareness, engage consumers, and gather data by posting promotional questions about a product or service. Since its launch in October 2007, Predictify has partnered with the New York Times, the San Francisco Chronicle, Freakonomics, Mashable and ReadWriteWeb. Predictify can be found at www.predictify.com/.

PR Contact:

Tiffany
Curci
Voce Communications

208-725-2062


Valley of the Jolly Green Midget

I love startups. I've loved them all my adult life. The first one I worked on was SunDance magazine, at 1913 Fillmore Street, in San Francisco in 1971. After a half dozen or so others, Rolling Stone hired me in 1975; and though it no longer technically qualified as a startup, it was still in Act One of its particular drama, as I've written and blogged about many times in many places.

I was part of Mother Jones, as it started; and New West/California during its all-too-brief reign. The most important startup of my entire career was (and remains) the Center for Investigative Reporting, which I helped build from scratch from 1977-1989. Ever since, I've remained on the board, trying to stabilize and extend this valuable institution into the future.

But it was not only media companies that attracted me. I've also devoted a substantial part of my energy to helping build non-profits devoted to global environmental and social justice issues. The prime examples are the Pesticide Action Network and the Rainforest Action Network, but there are many, many more. Some are still active; some are not.

Nevertheless, despite all of these efforts, nothing had adequately prepared me for what confronted me when I joined HotWired late in 1995. This was ground zero for Web 1.0. Wired magazine had already caught the publishing world's attention and won National Magazine Awards, but despite my background in magazines, I didn't join that side of the company.

Rather, I agreed to become the producer of The Netizen, on HotWired, the first daily political news site on the still-young web. I'd cut my web teeth by helping launch what would eventually come to be known as Salon.com in the fall of 1995, but HotWired was potentially the Rolling Stone for its generation, if only it could win a race against time, and against the expectations of greedy investors who ultimately chose to kill the golden goose rather than allow it to flourish.

There have been many other startups for me since then, but tonight my mind is on HotWired, because tomorrow, for the very first time since I was laid off by Wired in late 1997, I'm again working with my friend, Louis Rossetto, the founder of Wired and its former Publisher.

Louis is one of the best bosses I've ever had, for a myriad of reasons. That our mutual dreams did not work out is insignificant in retrospect. Tomorrow, we launch a new collaboration, one that, though modest, carries much potential.

You know: Startups. That's where the likes of me belong.

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Scene of (Re) Construction

It's a foggy, cool weekend here in the city by the bay. My nine-year-old and I visited a non-profit outlet called "Scraps," in the warehouse district between Bernal Hill and Bayview. For six bucks, we loaded up on pieces of cloth, paper, wood, glass, and other castaways from our wasteful consumer culture; then came back home to recycle our acquisitions into something new.



Back home, we looked at the old pistol and pipe dug out of our 1890's privy by the S.F. Historical Museum two summers back. We've taken care of these relics; they are in the same shape as when we recovered them.



Out back, there are clusters of cherry tomatoes reaching their orange stage -- my favorite color in their ripening cycle.



Our wax bird was illuminated by the late-afternoon sun that broke through our fog soup.



Out front, the pink roses next door open, bloom, age and die in a colorful display of the cycle of life.



Inside, my little designer and I completed this room in what we eventually hope to be able to call a house. It's a beach cottage, with an exterior painted blue (at her insistence). It therefore recreates one of the happiest moments in my life, although she is utterly unaware of it. The late '80s, spending chunks of every summer in our inherited cottage on the beach at Sanibel Island, Florida. I'd work all day, writing this book or that, while my older kids grew up in paradise.

In the afternoons, while the kids played inside our little blue cottage looking out at the Bay, I would rewrite and edit my day's work. By late afternoon, it was time to party, and there were multiple ways to do that on Sanibel. I remember driving my kids over to their friends' parent's house, music blaring.

In retrospect, it never gets better than that. Never.

That's what my blissfully naive 9-year-old doesn't know -- the memories she is triggering within me -- as we create this little blue beach cottage together, or maybe somehow, on a deeper, more intuitive level, she does.

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