Thursday, April 10, 2025

All Other Things


 For one semester at the University of Michigan I was an Econ major, but I got hung up on the Latin phrase meaning "all other things being equal," which kept showing up in every economic model we studied.

When I (somewhat rebelliously) wrote a paper arguing that in real life all other things never stay equal, my professor was not amused and gave me a D. That was the end of my would-be career as an economist.

I understood, of course, the concept of modeling and the need to control for random factors that could affect the outcome, since I’d also been a math major for a minute. But similar concerns about reality’s messiness compared to math’s formulaic purity derailed my academic trajectory in that subject as well. Quod Erat Demonstrandum if you will.

In the end, I found that I was better suited to working with words, so it was journalism for me, which of course is completely obsessed with the real world and all of its messiness. But the two subjects that came up over and over again in my journalism career were economics and math.

Both are necessary today when trying to understand what is happening with Trump’s chaotic economic measures. Now I’m neither a mathematician nor an economist but I can tell you that his math is flawed and his faith in tariffs is naive.

Finally, all other things are most definitely not equal in the global economy. I may have gotten a D in Econ but Trump gets an F.

HEADLINES:

  • Dow surges 2,600 points for biggest rally in 5 years after Trump pauses some tariffs (CNBC)

  • Inside Trump’s tariff retreat: How fears of a bond market catastrophe convinced Trump to hit the pause button (CNN)

  • Why Trump Backed Down on Tariffs (New Yorker)

  • Trump announces pause in ‘reciprocal’ tariffs for all countries but China (WP)

  • China Has Readied a Trade-War Arsenal That Takes Aim at U.S. Companies (WSJ)

  • 'The Economist' editor unpacks the 'biggest trade policy shock' of Trump's tariffs (NPR)

  • Longtime Democratic strategist James Carville spotted how Trump could "try anything" while the U.S. is "in the midst of a collapse." [HuffPost]

  • Hegseth spurs fiery response from Beijing over Panama Canal ‘threat’ comments (CNN)

  • EU takes revenge on Trump’s tariffs as countries approve €20B+ retaliation (Politico)

  • President, aides stress desire to cut deals amid turmoil (WP)

  • hat’s So Screwy About the Trump Tariffs (Atlantic)

  • In Trump Cases, Supreme Court Retreats From Confrontation (NYT)

  • One of the U.S. Supreme Court's latest decisions is a warning that constitutional rights may be scant protection against being disappeared into a foreign prison. [HuffPost]

  • U.S. judges in Texas, New York block DOJ from removing plaintiffs in Alien Enemies Act deportation case (CBS)

  • With secret moves against international students, feds spread fear (WP)

  • The Trump administration could try removing American citizens if it identifies a pathway it can claim to be legal, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. [HuffPost]

  • Exclusive: Kash Patel removed as acting ATF director, replaced by Army Secretary, sources say (Reuters)

  • Texas' measles outbreak isn't slowing down. How can that change? (NPR)

  • Americans Are Preparing for When All Hell Breaks Loose (NYT)

  • Beijing rejects Ukraine’s claim significant numbers of Chinese troops are fighting alongside Russia (AP)

  • Google launches new Ironwood chip to speed AI applications (Reuters)

  • Some people think AI writing has a tell — the em dash. Writers disagree. (WP)

  • Never-Before-Heard Buzzword Flying Around Office Can’t Be Good (The Onion)

VIDEO: 

Bob Dylan and The Band - Forever Young & Baby, Let Me Follow You Down

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Wednesday, April 09, 2025

Knowing Not

When it comes to investments in the stock market, one thing I’ve learned about downturns is not to look. 

Don’t ask, don’t know.

Most of the money that has pulled out over Trump’s insane trade war has no place else to go and will therefore come back once the situation settles. So it would be a rookie mistake to pull your remaining funds out now, when they are at or near the lowest point they’re going to hit.

For the super-wealthy, therefore, this is the time to buy. The stocks of good companies have hit bargain levels. This is when fortunes are made by those who already have one.

As for me, as a little person, I’m just fine with not looking and not knowing.

Wake me when it’s over.

HEADLINES:

  • Trump must reinstate Associated Press to White House press pool, judge rules (Politico)

  • Did fictional character Ron Vara ‘craft’ Trump’s tariff policies? (France24)

  • ‘Truly a moron’: Elon Musk escalates spat with Trump adviser Peter Navarro over tariffs (CNN)

  • IRS acting commissioner is resigning over deal to send immigrants' tax data to ICE, sources say (NBC)

  • New Social Security rules will create hurdles for millions of seniors, report finds (NPR)

  • Supreme Court blocks order requiring Trump administration to reinstate thousands of federal workers (AP)

  • Supreme Court allows Trump to terminate 16,000 probationary federal workers (ABC)

  • Musk made direct appeals to Trump to reverse sweeping tariffs (WP)

  • What would a US-China trade war do to the world economy? (BBC)

  • China vows to ‘fight to the end’ against latest Trump tariff threat (Guardian)

  • Trump Won’t Back Down. The Economic Pain Hasn’t Even Started Yet. (Barron’s)

  • Cracks appear among Trump’s cheerleaders amid market turmoil (WP)

  • CEOs Break Silence on Trump Trade War (WSJ)

  • Billionaires Seek to Take Companies Private as Market Melts (Bloomberg)

  • Vance’s whopper on alleged Social Security fraud (WP)

  • Trump administration fires senior Navy female officer at NATO. She appeared on a ‘woke’ list (AP)

  • Mexico would reject unilateral US military action, after drone strike report (Reuters)

  • ‘No guidance and no leadership’: chaos and confusion at CDC after mass firings (Guardian)

  • Measles cases in Texas outbreak surpass 500, with 24 new infections confirmed over last 5 days (ABC)

  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said he plans to tell the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to stop recommending fluoridation in communities nationwide. [AP]

  • Israeli forces bombed a tent full of Palestinian media workers in Gaza, burning some of them alive — just days after a new report concluded that more journalists have been killed in the territory’s crisis than in most other major wars combined. [HuffPost]

  • They want America to have more babies. Is this their moment? (NPR)

  • Scientists genetically engineer wolves with white hair and muscular jaws like the extinct dire wolf (AP)

  • Meta got caught gaming AI benchmarks (Verge)

  • Exclusive: Musk's DOGE using AI to snoop on U.S. federal workers, sources say (Reuters)

  • Meta’s surprise Llama 4 drop exposes the gap between AI ambition and reality (ArsTechnica)

  • Two Democratic US senators demanded information from Microsoft and Google about their cloud computing partnerships with artificial intelligence companies, expressing concern the arrangements could stifle competition in the cutting-edge industry. (Reuters)

  • Man Who Bumped Tesla While Parallel Parking Sentenced To Death (The Onion)

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Tuesday, April 08, 2025

The "Martinez"



As editor of the city magazine 7x7 that launched in 2001, I commissioned lots of stories on local history.

One of those was the origin of the martini, perhaps America's favorite cocktail. As near we were able to determine, a gold miner who had struck it rich headed to San Francisco when he stopped at a bar in Martinez, where the bartender served the drink.

The miner loved it, called it the Martinez, and headed for the Barbary Coast, then the most raucous part of a raucous town. He described the drink to a bartender there, where the modern name apparently emerged.

In the startup business we would call that a founding myth, and this one is generally accepted as true.

After all, history belongs to whoever is paying for the next round.

We published all sorts of fascinating tidbits during my brief tenure at 7x7, which was named for the 49 square-mile footprint of San Francisco. The 49ers refer to the gold miners, the football team and a 49-mile scenic drive for tourists.

As it turned out, free martinis were one of the main benefits of editing 7x7, though not for a celebratory reason. We launched the magazine one week before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. As the tourist trade here collapsed, we struggled to publish, deferring our salaries and accepting "trade' instead of cash from advertisers.

That trade basically meant all the free food and drink we could have wanted in San Francisco's best restaurants and bars -- night after night. As we navigated our way through this debauchery, it often felt as if the Barbary Coast was alive and well once again, at least for our merry band of staffers.

Despite the odd circumstances, I worked with a great group of editors, writers and designers, and it was a good chance to learn the city's rich history first-hand. Among the people I met was a young city council member named Gavin Newsom.

A week or so after our meeting, I received a hand-written thank you note from Newsom. Alas, soon after that, I had to leave 7x7 in order to earn an actual paycheck again.

HEADLINES: 

MUSIC VIDEO:

Merle Haggard & Willie Nelson "Okie from Muskogee" 

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Monday, April 07, 2025

Blueprint for Tyranny

I’m starting out the week by excerpting a remarkable post from the Alt National Park Service, which has emerged as one of the centers of the resistance movement against Donald Trump’s authoritarian administration. Even if you just scan it, you’ll get a sense of the scope of Trump’s naked grab for absolute power. Alt-NPS is also reporting that the Trump regime has started “dismantling Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) offices.”

***

From Alt-NPS: We know this post is long, but it’s important to read to understand what’s going on. A lot of people are asking, “Why is Trump just out golfing while things are falling apart?” It’s simple: the emergency isn’t something he’s reacting to — it’s something he’s building.

Trump recently declared a national economic emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — granting himself sweeping authority over international trade by labeling foreign economic practices an “unusual and extraordinary threat.”

But here’s the real play: by declaring a national emergency, Trump didn’t just respond to a crisis — he created one. And in doing so, he unlocked access to over 120 statutory powers scattered throughout federal law. Many of these powers have nothing to do with trade — and everything to do with expanding presidential authority inside the U.S.

What This Move Enables: Expanded Domestic Powers

1. Control of Domestic Communications

- 47 U.S.C. §606(c): Allows the president to take control of, shut down, or regulate wire and radio communications — including the internet, social media platforms, broadcast networks, and telecom infrastructure — in the name of national defense. Originally intended for wartime, this Cold War-era law remains on the books.

2. Asset Freezing and Financial Surveillance

- Under IEEPA and related laws, the president can freeze the assets and bank accounts of individuals or organizations accused of aiding foreign threats. These powers are vague and can be stretched to include domestic political groups, journalists, or activists — especially if they’re perceived as having foreign ties or influence.

3. Domestic Military Deployment

- Under the Insurrection Act (10 U.S.C. §§ 251–255), the president can deploy active-duty U.S. military to enforce laws or suppress civil unrest within the country. In certain scenarios, this can be done without state governor consent — especially if the president claims state authorities are failing to uphold federal law.

4. Emergency Detention Powers (Non-Citizens)

- The Alien Enemies Act (50 U.S.C. §21) — a law dating back to 1798 — allows the president to detain or restrict the movement of non-citizens from nations deemed hostile. The criteria for “hostile” can be broad and undefined during a declared emergency.

5. Control of Energy and Transportation

- Under laws like 42 U.S.C. §6272 and others, the president can redirect or restrict domestic fuel production, electricity usage, or energy transportation. Additionally, 49 U.S.C. §40106(b) allows the president to limit, reroute, or suspend civil aviation, giving the executive branch near-total control over U.S. airspace in a crisis.

6. Suspension of Labor Regulations

- During a declared emergency, the president can waive federal labor regulations and override contract protections. This includes removing limits on hours, wages, and workplace safety for federal contractors and any industries deemed vital to national security.

7. National Security Letters & Warrantless Surveillance

- Emergency declarations expand the reach and use of National Security Letters (NSLs) — tools that let federal agencies demand financial, telecom, and internet records without a warrant. These also come with gag orders, preventing the recipient (e.g., Google or a bank) from disclosing that they’re under surveillance.

Why it Matters?

Even when legal domestic powers are limited, a national emergency lets the president:

- Frame the issue as a national security crisis, justifying aggressive action

- Bypass Congress and the courts by acting unilaterally

- Sway public opinion using fear, urgency, and patriotic rhetoric

Bottom Line

IEEPA is focused on foreign threats — but once the emergency is declared, the president taps into a hidden arsenal of domestic control powers. What began as a trade issue could quickly shift into civil liberties restrictions, mass surveillance, or even crackdowns under the legal shield of an “emergency.”

This isn’t just about tariffs. It’s about redefining the boundaries of executive power. Imagine if this economic crisis keeps getting worse — the amount of power he will gain.

***

Large numbers of of people came out to demonstrate this weekend in protest against what Trump is doing and what he plans to do. The next national day of protest is to be on April 19th. 

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Sunday, April 06, 2025

It's Started


HEADLINES:

 

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