Crowd vs. Crowd

In 1906, the British social scientist and mathematician Sir Francis Galton was astounded when he observed a contest at a rural livestock fair. An ox was on display, and the villagers were invited to guess its weight. Nearly 800 people took part, and Galton later calculated that the median estimate they came up with was exactly right -- 1,207 pounds (1,197 dressed), even though no individual among them had guessed the weight correctly.

In his book "The Wisdom of Crowds" published nearly a century later (2004), James Surowiecki used this incident as his opening example to illustrate his contention that aggregating information in groups can result in decisions that are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group.

I love that theory and often cite it but today I want to focus on an obliquely related yet distinct process, which is known as crowd-sourcing. This involves enlisting a large number of people to develop new information, such as solving a mystery and it is commonly used via social media by journalists.

One highly relevant example is the effort being coordinated by John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the University of Toronto, who has been using Twitter this week to marshal the help of a very large group of people in identifying the individuals who led the riot at the U.S. capitol on January 6th.

Watch the CNBC report: <https://www.youtube.com/watchv=pZP2VB9bQ2A&feature=youtu.be>

Among the ringleaders the crowd has been able to identify is ae military veteran who carried zip-ties onto the floor of the Capitol, apparently aiming to handcuff members of Congress once they had been captured by the rioters. Larry Rendall Brock, Jr. is currently in the custody of law enforcement officials, thanks to this crowd-sourcing effort.

Investigators believe that the intention of Brock and some of the others that day may have been to capture political leaders like Pence and Pelosi, put them on trial, and possibly execute them on the spot.

This is just one of the extremely disturbing aspects of the mob attack that are still emerging, as authorities try to interpret clues about what may happen next and whether we are on the verge of a second civil war.

My purpose in mentioning Surowiecki's theory and Scott-Railton's work in the same breath today is to suggest that maybe what we need right now is to fuse the wisdom of the crowds with crowd-sourcing to answer the question looming large over the next few days: What will happen next? 

***

Last night, I submitted the form to the county where I am a resident to get the Covid-19 vaccination. Applications are now being accepted for those aged 65 and older. I urge anyone in this category to do so immediately.

The news:

* Pentagon authorizes 25,000 National Guard troops to deploy in Washington, D.C. (CNN)

* Three of the key advisers who helped engineer Donald Trump's' rise to the presidency in 2016, and who fell from grace under the weight of federal criminal charges, resurfaced during Trump's final days in office to help engineer his ill-fated attempt to cling to power. Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, and retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn all participated in efforts to promote the Jan. 6 "Stop the Steal" event that ultimately devolved into a riotous and deadly melee at the United States Capitol, leaving five dead and causing Trump to become the only president to be impeached for a second time. (ABC)

* Global virus death toll hits 2 million (AP)

* Unemployment Claims Rise Sharply, Showing New Economic Pain (NYT)

* Fast-spreading UK coronavirus variant could be dominant in U.S. by March, CDC says (Reuters)

* Experts warn of vaccine stumbles because Trump officials refused to consult with Biden team (WashPo)

* Pence, in call to Harris, offers congratulations (AP)

* Biden’s Stimulus Is a Two-Pronged Attack on Income Inequality (WSJ)

* Trump is spending his last days in the White House enveloped in rage and turmoil. Even as Trump spends time watching TV and venting to aides and confidantes, one tangible issue he has been focused on is how to apply his power to pardon before his term ends. He plans to depart Washington the morning of Joe Biden's inauguration to live at his Mar-a-Lago resort. [Reuters]

* Two rioters say Capitol officer told them, ‘It’s your house now,’ FBI says (WashPo)

‌* Federal prosecutors offered an ominous new assessment of last week’s siege of the U.S. Capitol, saying in a court filing that rioters intended “to capture and assassinate elected officials.” The filing asks a judge to detain Jacob Chansley, the Arizona man and QAnon conspiracy theorist who was famously photographed wearing horns. This comes alongside the arrest of a retired firefighter amid allegations that he threw a fire extinguisher at U.S. Capitol Police officers. [Reuters]

* Rioters storming Capitol came dangerously close to Pence (WashPo, CNN)

* Senate Plans Trial for Trump as G.O.P. Weighs Risks of Convicting (NYT)

* The Guatemalan military has detained hundreds of migrants at its border as thousands of Hondurans, including many families with young children, continued to walk north on Friday as part of a caravan hoping to reach the United States. (Reuters)

* Newly elected GOP Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted for Trump’s impeachment, said he’s buying body armor to protect himself from the president’s supporters. When MSNBC asked Meijer on Thursday if he had received death threats, the lawmaker said he wasn’t going to let anything deter him from his duty. [HuffPost]

* Our national security apparatus failed last week. Officials hope it will be ready for Inauguration Day. (WashPo)

* Trump Ignites a War Within the Church -- After a week of Trumpist mayhem, white evangelicals wrestle with what they’ve become. (David Brooks/NYT)

* Poll finds clear opposition to riot, support to bar Trump from serving again (WashPo)

* At least four airlines announced additional security measures as federal and local officials began increasing protection around the Capitol after last week's deadly riot. (HuffPost)

* Abandon Trump? Deep in the G.O.P. Ranks, the MAGA Mind-Set Prevails (NYT)

* Delta has put some of Trump’s most aggressive supporters on a no-fly list after they harassed Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham and Mitt Romney in airports last week. Delta Air LinesCEO Ed Bastian said that passengers who targeted the senators would no longer be able to fly on the airline. [HuffPost]

* Encrypted apps like Telegram and Signal are exploding since companies like Twitter and Facebook cracked down after the Trump-incited Capitol siege and with right-wing favorite Parler going dark. (Vanity Fair)

* Messaging app Signal facing technical difficulties (Reuters)

* U.S. troops in Afghanistan now down to 2,500, lowest since 2001: Pentagon (Reuters)

* A Raven Queen Vanishes, and Britain Checks a Prophecy -- One of the resident birds at the Tower of London is feared to have died. Legend says at least six must be kept there, or the nation will fall. (NYT)

***

Virgil Kane is the name
And I served on the Danville train
'Till Stoneman's cavalry came
And tore up the tracks again

In the winter of '65
We were hungry, just barely alive
By May the 10th, Richmond had fell
It's a time I remember, oh so well

The night they drove old Dixie down
And the bells were ringing
The night they drove old Dixie down
And the people were singing
They went, "Na, na, la, na, na, la"

Back with my wife in Tennessee
When one day she called to me
"Virgil, quick, come see,
There goes Robert E. Lee!"

Now, I don't mind chopping wood
And I don't care if the money's no good
You take what you need
And you leave the rest
But they should never
Have taken the very best

The night they drove old Dixie down
And the bells were ringing
The night they drove old Dixie down
And all the people were singing
They went, "Na, na, la, na, na, la"

Like my father before me
I will work the land
And like my brother above me
Who took a rebel stand

He was just 18, proud and brave
But a Yankee laid him in his grave
I swear by the mud below my feet
You can't raise a Kane back up
When he's in defeat

-- Robbie Robertson

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Our Pandemic Fantasies

[Kate Greenaway's illustration from Mother Goose or the Old Nursery Rhymes (1881), showing children playing Ring Around the Rosy.]

When I was a young boy, and things around me became confusing or scary, I often created imaginary worlds. I did this when my father got angry or my mother got sad, which were usually unrelated events.

I had loving parents who never treated me badly, so this is not about them. It's about kids like me.

In my imaginary world, I was the narrator who got to tell his audience what was happening and how it all worked out. The characters in my world acted the way I wanted them to act, which often included heroic deeds.

It doesn't take a psych 101 textbook to figure out what that was all about.

But there's something else. Beyond family matters, in the 1950s, there was a pandemic that may have affected my emotional development. It was called polio. I almost never thought about it until these past ten months.

***

Kids today have a shortcut escape route to imaginary worlds. They can play video games. What is different from my childhood 60-some years ago and today is that they are escaping into an imaginary world of somebody else's making. So they are not their own narrator.

Among the studies I read yesterday is one reminding parents that tweens are old enough to understand that things around them are not normal during this pandemic but they are not necessarily old enough to understand why. This disparity, some child psychologists say, may leave them prone to anxiety and depression.

That leads me to a related fixation of mine, ADD. Most parents are aware that diagnoses of this condition have become quite common in recent decades. The average age when this happens, I'm told, is seven. 

Looking back, what was initially called "attention deficit hyperactivity disorder" (ADHD) was identified by British pediatrician Sir George Still way back in 1902. Interestingly, this was during the aftermath of the Third Plague, which killed millions of people in British Colonial India.

Eighty years later, ADHD's name was simplified to "attention deficit disorder" (ADD). The number of children diagnosed with it rose significantly in the 1990s, as doctors became more aware of the condition and -- most significantly -- effective medicines for treating it hit the market. 

Then as now, many parents questioned the wisdom of medicating children who have ADD, out of concern for what the long-term effects of those medications may be. 

In this context, I remember a conversation I had maybe a decade ago with the wonderful novelist Toni Morrison at 33 Irving Place below Gramercy Park one day about her role on the admissions committee of a prestigious university. She told me that a major problem facing each year's incoming freshman class was whether the students' doses of ADD medications were adequate to help them manage the stress they faced moving away from home.

Neither of us being doctors but both of us being parents, we speculated over whether the medicines actually helped children cope with anxiety or just masked the symptoms from their parents. We both suspected that the medicines might be doing more to treat parental anxieties than that felt by their kids.

All of these memories have been revisiting me during this pandemic, as I observe the palpable anxiety felt by some of the young children I know.

And I can't help wondering whether a heightened sense of anxiety may simply be a highly appropriate response to the exigencies imposed by a pandemic, as opposed to some sort of disease.

Then again, I'm not a doctor or a psychiatrist. I'm just a guy who created his own imaginary worlds a long time ago.

[33 Irving Place, New York City is the former site of The Nation Institute. The late Ms. Morrison and I were on its editorial board at that time.]

***

Talk about anxiety! It's come down to this.

The largest military mobilization in our nation's history is underway to create a perimeter to protect entire capital city from domestic terrorists during next week's the inauguration. The images on cable TV are startling and provocative. Will this ensure our leaders' safety or just further rile up the insurrectionists?

I don't know.

But it is hard to see what else the authorities can do, given the nature and the volume of the threats they are receiving. The intelligence agencies of the U.S. government seem to be freaked out to an extent I've not witnessed since the aftermath of 9/11 terror attacks.

Back then, to state the obvious, the enemies were foreign, but now they are domestic. The current crop aren't Arabs who yell "الله أكبر (Allahu  Akbar); rather they could be those disheveled guys hanging around the corner store.

What makes me anxious is that no one seems to know what is going to happen over the coming days, but everyone is expecting trouble. And this is not over in the Middle East; this is back home in the United States of America.

***

The news:

* Washington locks down, Delta bans guns to D.C.--As Washington locks down for President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration, Delta Air Lines put new restrictions on passengers to the U.S. capital, while Democrats warned of possible political violence even after the Jan. 20 swearing-in. (Reuters)

* There is an enormous amount about the attack on the Capitol that we don’t know — the degree of coordination, whether the rioters had help within the Capitol, how Trump responded, specifically, to cries for help from the Capitol and why security forces were so unprepared. And investigators are clear: There is much more, shocking information to learn. (Politico)

* FAA issues special order aimed at cracking down on unruly airline passengers after Capitol riot (WashPo)

* Entire National Mall could be closed on Inauguration Day (NBC)

* A rehearsal for Joe Biden’s inauguration scheduled for Sunday has been postponed because of security concerns, according to two people with knowledge of the decision. (Politico)

* Republicans and Democrats agree — the country is falling apart (Axios)

* A number of extremists and private militia groups had discussed online and in emails the Jan. 6 rally in Washington, activity that should have been enough to put federal law enforcement on high alert, current and former government officials said. (WSJ)

* Rep. Lauren Boebert represents an increasingly clamorous faction of the party that carries Mr. Trump’s anti-establishment message and is ready to break all norms in doing so. (NYT)

* Far-right groups make plans for protests and assaults before and after Inauguration Day (WashPo)

* The more we learn about the siege of the Capitol, the more you realize how close we came to an even more catastrophic outcome. “This could have been a slaughter; the decapitation of the legislative branch of government,” a former senior homeland security official told me. (David Axelrod/Twitter)

* Trump brought leadership turmoil to security agencies in run-up to Capitol riot (WashPo)

* 

Biden to unveil plan to pump $1.5 trillion into pandemic-hit economy. (Reu

ters)

* New York City Renters Owe More Than $1 Billion in Unpaid Rent, Survey Finds (WSJ)

* House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said any lawmaker who refuses to pass through new metal detectors installed in the U.S. Capitol may be hit with severe fines under a proposed rule change, after several Republicans refused to do so. Pelosi said she would introduce a rule change on Jan. 21 that the House will then vote. House members will be fined $5,000 for the first offense and $10,000 for the second. [HuffPost] 

*

Years of white supremacy threats culminated in Capitol riots (AP)

* 

Dozens of people on the FBI’s terrorist watch list came to D.C. the day of the Capitol riot. Most are suspected white supremacists. (WashPo)

* President is isolated and angry at aides for failing to defend him as he is impeached again (WashPo)

* Campaigners to Biden: Environmental justice key to tackling climate change (Reuters)

* Facing New Outbreaks, China Places Over 22 Million on Lockdown (NYT)

* Lady Gaga will sing the national anthem at Joe Biden’s inauguration and Jennifer Lopez will give a musical performance on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol when Biden is sworn in as the nation’s 46th president next Wednesday. (AP)

* Nation’s governors gird for worst, warn of long-term dangers to their capitols (WashPo)

* New research set to publish Thursday outlines how the U.S. government could conjure the full force of its industrial might to build and deploy a massive fleet of machines to suck CO₂ from the sky. Doing so will be extremely expensive and energy-intensive. But the University of California, San Diego, researchers set out to model what a wartime budget could do to boost a technology that today remains nascent and controversial. [HuffPost]

* Medical system in Tokyo under extreme strain (NHK)

* A racing pigeon has survived an extraordinary 13,000-kilometer (8,000-mile) Pacific Ocean crossing from the United States to find a new home in Australia. Now authorities consider the bird a quarantine risk and plan to kill it. Kevin Celli-Bird said Thursday he discovered the exhausted bird that arrived in his Melbourne backyard on Dec. 26 had disappeared from a race in the U.S. state of Oregon on Oct. 29. Experts suspect the pigeon that Celli-Bird has named Joe, after the U.S. president-elect, hitched a ride on a cargo ship to cross the Pacific. (AP)

* Patches — a calico cat who was believed to have been killed alongside her owner in January 2018 when rainstorms sent debris sliding down Montecito hillsides in the wake of the Thomas Fire — was recently found alive and reunited with her owner’s partner. (AP) * ‘They Can’t Impeach Someone They Can’t See,’ Say Trump Boys Cramming Dad Into Homemade Bunker Under Oval Office Desk (The Onion) *** I don't care How many letters they sent Morning came and morning went Pick up your money And pack up your tent You ain't goin' nowhere -- Bob Dylan -30-

When Hope Dies

When the history of this era is written, analysts will note how the enforced periods of isolation and other pressures necessitated by the pandemic induced a kind of social pathology that intensified problems that were already plaguing our society.

Three examples: Addiction, Relationship Issues and Economic Insecurity.

1. Studies indicate that drug addiction rates are rising as people are confined to their homes with little chance of socializing. In San Francisco, it's been reported that drug overdoses are killing four times as many people as Covid.

2. The stress on relationships is palpable and is proving to be more than some can bear. I'm awaiting better data on this problem; the anecdotal evidence is disturbing.

3. The economic insecurity now forcing many people to wait in food lines and hope for financial aid from government is the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

We probably all know people hurting in at least one of these ways. And when we try to help, our attempts to do so can seem inadequate, almost naive. 

***

So members of the House went ahead and impeached Trump quickly and efficiently. In the end they had little choice. Now the trial will move to the Senate. Depending on what evidence emerges about what actually happened on January 6th, he could be the first President ever convicted of high crimes and misdemeanors.

All we know at present is he summoned his followers to Washington, gave an incendiary speech, and they attacked the Capitol. That is enough for impeachment right there.

But there are disturbing signs that the assault on the nation's citadel of power was carefully planned for weeks and that the rioters had help from insiders, possibly including government representatives and Capitol Police.

If this is true, the problem goes much deeper than Trump, and removing him will only be the first step in fighting a cancer that threatens to destroy our system of governance.

This is the essence of the warning Garry Kasparov tried to raise, to no avail. As despicable as his actions were, Trump may be only a diversion from the real problem, which has been building up for years and infects every sector of society.

Now we enter a week of high tension. Will the mob strike again, and if so, where? Are there more traitors within the military, national guard, secret service, other law enforcement agencies?

How deep is the support for Trump's philosophy among those sworn to protect the republic?

*** 

As a writer, my attempts to speak out on behalf of unity, hope and tolerance are starting to feel somewhat naive and certainly inadequate. Why should anyone listen to me? Some commenters have been raising that point bluntly.

I don't have an answer.

It's difficult for all of us to avoid the utter exhaustion caused by a relentless news cycle when the news is all bad. New developments occur on a 24-7 basis but that is only one aspect of the intensity of this experience. Most journalists I know are showing serious signs of burnout. most non-journalists are too.

As for me, I have no excuse since I am not employed and nobody is requiring me to do this. Furthermore, I have loved ones dealing with the three issues detailed above and they need my sustained attention. We all have to recognize our limits. 

***

The news, annotated: 

* F.B.I. Urges Police Chiefs Across U.S. to Be on High Alert for Threats -- A joint intelligence bulletin warned that the deadly breach at the Capitol would be a “significant driver of violence” ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. (NYT) The next week could be the most dangerous time yet. (DW)

* Trump issues video call for end to violence. (CNN) Way too little, way too late. (DW)

* The impeachment of President Trump for a second time — in a Capitol ringed by troops — seemed like the almost inevitable culmination of four years that left the nation fractured, angry and losing its sense of self. (NYT) Trump brought this on himself. (DW)

* A ‘Stop the Steal’ organizer said three GOP lawmakers helped plan his D.C. rally (WashPo) We need to know more about what really happened on January 6th. (DW)

* QAnon reshaped Trump’s party and radicalized believers. The Capitol siege may just be the start. (WashPo) Let's hope not. (DW)

* Sen. Hawley Defends Decision To Object To Electoral Votes (NPR) His political future is doubtful. (DW)

* U.S. sets single-day virus death record, and new strains emerge (WashPo) The bigger crisis. (DW)

* Coronavirus cases among lawmakers who sheltered in lockdown show one vaccine dose may not immediately protect against infection (WashPo) Bad news. (DW)

* Some national veterans organizations have vowed to remove members who were charged in the Capitol riots, taking a stand against the violent attack last week. Organizations like the Disabled American Veterans (DAV) and AMVETS said they also plan to revoke memberships of those found guilty of illegal acts or violence. (CNN) The right thing to do. (DW)

* Airbnb Is Canceling All Reservations In Metro D.C. During Inauguration Week (NPR) Good.  (DW) 

*

Biden forgoing Amtrak trip to Washington over security fears (AP) Risks are too great. (DW)

* Restaurant and hotel workers reel as layoffs soar again (WashPo) Low-paid workers are the  main victims. (DW)

*  Republican Party faces rage from both pro- and anti-Trump voters (Reuters) Live with Trump, die with Trump. (DW)

* European Populists Who Looked to Trump Now Look Away -- The riot at the U.S. Capitol and bogus claims of election fraud have led former allies of President Trump to distance themselves. (NYT) Trump's isolation is complete. (DW)

* Israel launches unusually intense strikes on Iranian positions in Syria (WashPo) Major danger sign. (DW)

* 'Many Of Us Narrowly Escaped Death': Rep. Ocasio-Cortez Recounts Capitol Insurrection (NPR) Thank god for the Capitol Police. (DW)

* How Far Does Wildlife Roam? Ask the ‘Internet of Animals’ -- An ambitious new system will track scores of species from space — shedding light, scientists hope, on the lingering mysteries of animal movement. (NYT) A small ray of needed hope. (DW)

***

The wretched are the wounded, the hungry starve to death
In a place where no one goes, the air itself is a final breath
So discontinue the antiseptic care charade
As a cry of justice comes, a malignant fire fades
I am the reason your future suffers
I am the hatred you won't embrace
I am the worm of a pure gestation
I am the remedy, spit in my face
All your laws and rules are outdated
All your subjects are killing the kings
I could rattle off a million other reasons why
But does it matter when the only thing we love will die?

-- Songwriters: Fehn Christopher Michael / Crahan Michael Shawn / Taylor Corey / Root James Donald / Wilson Sidney George / Jordison Nathan J / Jones Craig A / Thomson Mickael G / Gray Paul D

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