The AI Futures Project, a tiny nonprofit with offices in Berkeley, has published a positive vision for how humanity can harness the potential of AI without allowing it to destroy us.
Called “Plan A,” this document envisions a scenario whereby we delay the development of super intelligence until 2040 and allows dozens of companies all over the world to catch up to the frontier currently occupied by just a few players in the U.S. and China.
All AI research would be made public under this plan, and an international regulatory regime “of mutually assured compute destruction” would come into being.
Starting in 2027, according to Plan A, “America has two workforces now. The first is people, 165 million of them. The second is AI agents: millions of copies spun up and shut down every hour, working around the clock at superhuman speeds."
The result in Congress is the AI Transparency Act of 2027, an omnibus bill that does many things, some good and some bad, but doesn’t fundamentally change the situation.20
The plan predicts that AI will be on the biggest issue on the ballot in the 2028 election cycle. There will be widespread awareness that unrestrained AI threatens humanity’s future, and fierce debate over what to do about it.
The outcome of the debate is the new President will declare that we must slow down AI development. To everyone’s surprise, then other superpower leading the AI race, China, agrees.
But neither side wants to slow down their AI development unless they can verify the other side is too. A verification scheme emerges involving the U.S., China and other countries as well.
After intense global debate, further AI development is delayed while processes are developed to ensure transparency and reversibility. “No one knows how to tell if AIs are trustworthy, and no one knows how to regulate superintelligent AI. Solving those problems looks like it’ll take years. Slowing down the intelligence explosion buys time to do so.”
There is much more to the plan; it is 50 pages long. But you get the idea from this, I hope, and I urge everyone to become familiar with the plan. I may publish more about this in the coming days.
What gives Plan A credibility in my eyes is it sounds realistic and achievable. It’s one of the first positive visions I’ve seen to help us manage what is increasingly looking like the greatest threat to our continued existence as a species.
Viewed that way, how can we not give it a shot? The AI Futures Project gives us options that suggest a way forward with an “Incremental AI Policy Wishlist:”
“Our main recommendation is to begin negotiating something like Plan A as soon as possible. But in this scenario, we depict Plan A happening imperfectly and only in the nick of time. So here is a list of less ambitious ideas that still help.”
Transparency
Enforce export controls
Invest in verification R&D
Limit AI R&D budgets
AI Compute Tracking
Improve government AI capacity
I have been watching AI development for years now and tried to keep an open mind, given the potential this technology has for good, but I am convinced that the corporate gold rush currently under way if left unchecked will lead to disaster.
It will probably take an incident at least on the scale of Chernobyl, if not Hiroshima, to wake up enough humans to the mind-numbing realization that we are poised on the verge of destruction with AI.
Plan A offers us a way out.
HEADLINES:
America marks the 25th anniversary of 9/11 (CNN)
Empty seats, socialism and Trump dominate the Republican midterm convention (NPR)
As Trump dominates convention, some Republicans quietly ask who comes next (BBC)
Iran-Backed Houthis Take Effective Control of Key Red Sea Chokepoint (WSJ)
Houthis hail operation as they take over Red Sea coastline (Al Jazeera)
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Behind the Scenes, Vance Gathered Unvarnished Views of the Iran War (NYT)
Houthis seize key Yemeni port of Mocha in drive to take control of Red Sea coast (Guardian)
Oil soars to $109, pushing up chances of US interest rate increase (Al Jazeera)
What Russia Is Really Up To in Europe (Atlantic)
NATO allies foil a Russian subsea cable sabotage plot. (Reuters)
A Year After Charlie Kirk’s Killing, a Divided Utah Campus Honors Him (NYT)
Supreme Court blocks Missouri’s attempt to use Republican-drawn congressional map (NBC)
US appeals court rejects Trump’s bid to restrict mail-in voting before midterms (Guardian)
Trump’s census plan could reshape voting maps, eliminate race questions (Axios)
Trump vs. the Blue Wave (Silver Bulletin)
Trump Fury at Canada Gets So Unhinged Even GOPers Rattled (TNR)
Jimmy Kimmel says show won’t air James Talarico interview on TV, citing FCC threats (NBC)
Jimmy Kimmel’s Interview with James Talarico That the FCC Doesn’t Want You To See (YouTube)
Jimmy Kimmel sends pointed message to FCC chairman after cancelation reports (Independent)
Anthropic says it blocked misuse of its AI that could have supported biological weapons (AP)
One resignation turned the embers of AI fear into a wildfire (Interconnects)
We asked AI how it could kill humanity. Here’s what it told us. (BI)
Inside a Perfect Storm — How Dangerous Is AI? (TPM)
‘Extinction’ warnings ramp up as more OpenAI, Anthropic researchers join calls for an AI slowdown (CNBC)
For years, they warned AI could kill all humans. Now people are listening. (WP)
Trump Claims He Was Falling Man (Onion)
