The Aftermath

For nearly two years, I worried that Trump might try to disrupt the midterm elections by calling a national emergency. That fear was based partly on his threats, partly on the hints in his executive orders and partly on what happened on Jan. 6, 2021.

I also worried that his frequent claim that the elections could be rigged would be plausible, at least to his followers.

But in the end the Democrats won by such a huge margin that nothing like my worst fears happened. Kalshi now says there is a 96.5 percent chance the Dems will win the Senate seat in Mississippi, and a 93.9 percent chance they’ll prevail in the Alaska Senate race, which will bring them to a 56-44 advantage.

The magnitude of the Democratic victory in the House won’t be known for a bit but Kalshi says it will be 260-175.

So rather than declare an emergency over some trumped-up excuse or another, all Trump could do in the end was to wander off to the site of his East Wing destruction project, muttering about pipes and marble and cranes. Now the blame game has started among Republicans the word is they might impeach Pete Hegseth next week while they still hold the Congressional majority.

For the first time, I now feel that I can appreciate the country’s 250th anniversary.

P.S. Of course Trump did initially try to disrupt the elections with numerous lawsuits but he lost in the courts, including in the Supreme Court.

HEADLINES:

• How Trump Lost the Midterms — The Iran war, gas prices and Trump’s miscalculations led to one of the most decisive repudiations of an American president (WSJ)

• Democrats Project Power as G.O.P. Reels in a Reordered Washington (NYT)

• Young voters led a sharp shift toward Democrats in the 2026 midterms, The AP Voter Poll finds (AP)

• ‘Seismic shift’: World reacts to US midterm election results (Al Jazeera)

• After an extraordinary wave, what comes next? (Silver Bulletin)

• Amid the Trump wreckage, the free press survives (The Hill)

• As GOP points fingers over stunning midterm losses, Trump admires his ballroom (Politico)

• Democratic sweep of Congress ushers in a new era as Trump acknowledges impact of the Iran war (AP)

• Vance blames Republican losses on Iran war (Yahoo)

• El-Sayed Calls Out JD Vance in Victory Speech (WSJ)

• Oil prices plunge after Vance post on Iran war (Axios)

• Stocks Rise as Democrats Flip Control of Congress (NYT)

• Republican strongholds flip for the first time in a generation (Reuters)

• Why Pete Hegseth could fall through “thin ice” (Axios)

• Trump asking advisers if Hegseth should stay after midterm losses, sources say (CBS)

• A Blue Wave Just Crashed on Trump (New Yorker)

• DeSantis calls midterm bloodbath an ‘extinction-level event for Republicans’ (Politico)

• How a blue wave crushed the tech right (BI)

• These Democrats are set to take foreign policy reins in Congress (The Hill)

• Among winners: The polls. Among losers: Billionaires. (WP)

• Goodbye, Vivek Ramaswamy (Slate)

• ‘Congratulations to Donald Trump on a successful regime change’: Late night hosts react to Democrat sweep (Independent)

• Pope Leo receives Bob Dylan at the Vatican (Vatican News)

• OpenAI is already trying to shape the 2028 election (TechCrunch)

• Google Will Turn Off Search for Schools That Reject A.I. (NYT)

• Nation Watches Helplessly As 2028 Election Cycle Begins (Onion)

America to Trump: "Enough!"

Before any vote totals were released Tuesday night, I was looking through the exit poll data at several media sites. It was crystal clear from the demographics, the issues, the attitudes and the energy that a Democratic victory was coming.

What wasn’t clear was the scope.

The Democrats have won control of the House, the Senate and a majority of the Governorships. They bring a rainbow of new leaders — the first Muslim Senator, the first openly gay Senator, the first black Speaker of the House, the first black woman Governor, the first Latina woman Governor, the first Native American woman Governor and a broad array of progressives and moderates united in opposition to one man — Donald J. Trump.

This is a complete and utter repudiation of Trump’s authoritarianism. When they take office in January, these leaders have the opportunity and the responsibility to craft a new path to a much better future for everybody.

Everybody, that is, but Trump, Elon Musk and the other gangsters who have been looting and lying as if this country belonged to them.

It doesn’t. It belongs to the rest of us. And last night we took it back.

HEADLINES:

• Finally, the Beginning of Trump’s End (New Yorker)

• Republican strongholds flip for the first time in a generation (Reuters)

• Democrats Seize Control of Congress, Ending a G.O.P. Trifecta (NYT)

• Voters dealt President Donald Trump a historic rebuke in yesterday’s midterms. (WP)

• The U.S. Supreme Court rejected a push for California to set aside thousands of mail ballots from people the Trump administration claims are noncitizens. The swift rejection was the latest in a flurry of election-related litigation the day before the elections. No justices publicly dissented. [AP]

• As Americans voted, Trump says US will stop $4 billion in aid to Israel (Reuters)

• Why are Americans paying more for health insurance? Experts give 3 reasons (PBS)

• ‘Quiet quitting’ could be hitting the economy - here’s why (BBC)

• US has conducted defensive strikes on Iranian targets, US official says (AP)

• Unabating attacks show how the escalating maritime war between Russia and Ukraine is expanding into a major ‌challenge for NATO in the Black Sea that has left coastal member states such as Romania and Bulgaria exposed. (Reuters)

• Judge Dismisses Trump Lawsuit Demanding Harvard Admissions Data (NYT)

• Parts of Florida see half a year’s worth of rain in 36 hours (WP)

• CrowdStrike to Buy Two AI Security Startups for $495 Million (WSJ)

• How “reverse game theory” could keep AI agents in check (TR)

• OpenAI hires former US Army secretary as military seeks to expand AI use (FT)

• Google researchers are fighting the company to tell the world what they know about AI (WP)

• Anthropic Is Racing to Obtain the A.I. Boom’s Most Vital Resource (NYT)

• Nation Lines Up In Droves To Humiliate Nate Silver (Onion)

 

Election Day

After months of hype, Election Day has arrived. Pollsters, pundits and the prediction markets all point to a win for the Democrats. If they are correct, this will give Democrats a chance to serve as a check on Trump’s authoritarian tendencies.

But elections like this one are short term events, whereas much of the damage Trump has done is long-term in nature. Rebuilding essential federal regulatory agencies will take time. Convincing talented officials to return to public service will be a tough sell. Plus Trump retains enough executive power to thwart most of the moves Democrats may try.

If the Democrats control both houses of Congress, they can pass legislation. Trump can veto those bills. Democrats can try to repair Medicare, restore environmental protections, public health protections and protect civil rights, especially for immigrants. But none of this will be easy.

What I’m suggesting is that Democrats will have to win the White House in 2028, plus retain control of Congress, to make progress at undoing the harm and repairing the damage inflicted by Trump.

For now, they can investigate the rampant corruption in this administration, stop any further encroachments on our civil society, and prepare a progressive plan for change starting in 2028.

But first they have to win all of those races across the country tonight.

HEADLINES:

• Supreme Court Rejects Trump Administration Request to Intervene in California Ballot Case (NYT)

• Trump focuses on Washington DC construction projects on eve of midterm election as Democrats climb in polls (Guardian)

• The House races that should raise alarms among Republicans (WP)

• Four types of House races to watch on election night to know how it might go (NPR)

• When to Expect Midterm Results in Each State on Election Night (NYT)

• It’s Judgment Day for Trump (and for pollsters) (Silver Bulletin)

• At least 33 dead after Russia drops nine bombs on a Ukrainian school building (CNN)

• The MAGA Faithful Eye the Exits (New Yorker)

• Inside the Abdul El-Sayed-Haley Stevens Meltdown in Michigan (NYT)

• Texas, Alaska, Maine Senate races flip blue on DDHQ map (The Hill)

• Where polls and fundamentals clash (Silver Bulletin)

• ‘Climate hushing’ and the midterm elections (Money Trail)

• Republicans count on Election Day turnout despite enthusiasm gap (WP)

• ‘Weaponization’: Judge blasts DOJ in dismissing case against ex-FBI agents who investigated Hunter Biden (ABC)

• Trump Administration Said to Plan Rolling Back Pregnancy-Related Job Protections (NYT)

• Fake warnings of nuclear attack posted on hacked Russian and Ukrainian emergency apps (CNN)

• America Can’t Afford an AI Recession (Atlantic)

• Could A.I. Be Conscious? It’s Definitely Possible. (NYT)

• Anthropic posts $17B quarterly revenue but losses continue in fresh IPO filing (AP)

• Haley Stevens Threatens To Endorse One Republican Every Hour Until Demands Met (Onion)

 

Election Eve

Although tomorrow is known as Election Day, it probably should be called the Last Chance Saloon of this election season. One way or another, voting will wrap up for the 100 million or so Americans participating in what increasingly appears to be a “blue wave.” Well over half have already cast their ballots.

From the New York Times: “Democrats gained ground right to the end in the final New York Times/Siena University pollsof the 2026 midterm campaign. The party is ahead in all seven states likeliest to decide control of the Senate: Michigan, Kansas, Texas, Maine, Ohio and, more narrowly, Alaska and Iowa.”

In Michigan, El-Sayed(D) leads Rogers(R) 53-42 percent.

In Kansas, Hamilton(D) leads Marshall (R) 49-44.

In Texas, Talarico (D) leads Paxton (R) 50-43.

In Maine, Jackson(D) leads Collins(R) 51-45.

In Ohio, Brown(D) leads Hustad(R) 49-45.

In Alaska, Peltola(D) leads Sullivan(R) 48-46.

In Iowa, Turek(D) leads Hinson(R) 48-47

In the Kalshi prediction market, the bets are Democrats will hold 53 seats to 46 for Republicans with the race in Iowa too close to call. Kalshi rates the Democrats’ chances to take over the Senate at 74 percent.

The only thing in question about the House is the size of the Democratic victory, which Kalshi predicts will be 234-187 with 14 races too close to call. 

Kalshi even expects Democrats to be in control of the Governor’s office in 28 states as opposed to 22 for Republicans.

ELECTION HEADLINES:

• Democrats Show Strength in Final Days of Race for the Senate, New Polls Find (NYT)

• The NYT/Siena polls show a blue tsunami (Silver Bulletin)

• The top 11 Senate seats most likely to flip, the day before the midterms (CNN)

• Judge tosses Trump’s attempt to block Alaska Senate results if GOP incumbent loses (NPR)

• Sullivan: ‘I’m going to accept the election results’ (The Hill)

• Inside Trump’s Dark Plot to Keep Senate in GOP Hands Even If Dems Win (TNR)

• Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate election (CNBC)

• Democrat Haley Stevens appears with Michigan GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers (WP)

• Could Haley Stevens cost Democrats the Senate? (Silver Bulletin)

• Haley Stevens’ Unsettling CNN Interview Proves Why She’s Unfit for Public Office (Variety)

• Concern mounts for Democrat Haley Stevens after ‘trainwreck’ CNN interview over Republican endorsement (Independent)

• James Talarico’s Final Sprint (New Yorker)

• A midterm crossroads for both parties eyeing the beginning of the end of the Trump era (AP)

• 2 days until midterms, Trump campaigns in Iowa and Kansas as both parties make final push (Fox)

• More than 50 million votes cast in US midterm elections: What does it mean? (Al Jazeera)

• Corruption on the Ballot (New Yorker)

• Trump White House maps path to govern without Congress if Democrats win (Reuters)

• 3 maps for the morning after the midterms (Silver Bulletin)

OTHER HEADLINES:

• Cyberattacks Hit Ukraine’s and Russia’s Emergency Alert Apps (WSJ)

• Sen. Chris Murphy is hospitalized after stroke (Politico)

• 9 Die in a Small Plane Crash in Florida, Official Says (NYT)

• 'Grasping at straws': Judge dismisses Trump suit against Wall Street Journal over Epstein letter (AP)

• US attorneys are freeing children from Trump’s ‘deportation machine’ with a new strategy (Guardian)

• Supreme Court hears religious freedom case centered on universal pre-K program (NPR)

• Race questions face new fight ahead of 2030 Census (Axios)

• The Lean Out (BI)

• Israeli officials say elections will stand after Netanyahu claimed Arabs stole vote (AP)

• Yaxel Lendeborg scores 37 points, most by a Warriors rookie since Stephen Curry (ESPN)

• Dakota Johnson wants you to have better sex (CNN)

• Can’t Afford a Home. Can’t Afford a Baby. Can’t Afford Life. This Is 30. (NYT)

• Common pesticide linked to 2.5 times the risk of Parkinson’s disease (ScienceDaily)

• United Nations report highlights significant increase in U.S. climate pollution (NPR)

• We’d Be Entering an Ice Age Right Now if Climate Change Hadn’t Terminated It, Study Suggests (ScienceAlert)

AI HEADLINES:

• Anthropic hiring manager says he stopped giving coding interviews because Claude is better at them — and tells junior engineers that ‘hunger beats tenure’ (TechRadar)

• The Year Math Changed Forever (New Yorker)

• We’re Living in the Age of the Imperial CEO (WSJ)

• Korea’s Stock Market Crashed $1 Trillion. What Does That Mean for the Global AI Race? (China Talk)

The ONION:

• Rich Family Giving Out King-Sized Mattresses

 

Tricky Dicks

Few things could be more quintessentially American than watching your college football team on TV, followed by another game and then another.

And few things could be more quintessentially American than seeing an Islamophobic ad by Republicans against Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate for Senator, followed by an ad painting him as a Communist.

The latter reminded me of how Richard Nixon earned his nickname “Tricky Dick” in his first run for the Senate in 1950, decades before the Watergate scandal.

El-Sayed faces not only the double whammy of the GOP attack ads, but the shenanigans of the Democrat he defeated to secure the party’s nomination, Hayley Stevens, who is trying to undermine El-Sated in his quest to defeat Republican Mike Rogers.

The thrust of her efforts is to paint El-Sayed as anti-semitic, another one of those old familiar tunes in American politics. (If he wins, El-Sayed would be the first Moslem in the Senate.)

Every time something like this happens it is a reminder that there are two Americas, one that actually believes in the equality for all and one that doesn’t.

HEADLINES:

• Rift grows between Democrats Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens in Michigan (CNN)

• Democratic Discord Intensifies in Michigan Senate Race (NYT)

• 4 ways the polls could be wrong — or right — about who will win the Senate (WP)

• District of Columbia and Virginia sue to block Trump’s triumphal arch plans (Al Jazeera)

• Barack Obama brings the late-breaking cheesecake (Reuters)

• GOP House member on ’embarrassing’ South Carolina prospects: ‘Darline is dragging Rs’ (The Hill)

• Inside the Conservative Case for Voting Restrictions (Reveal)

• Prediction Markets Face Their Biggest Accuracy Test Yet: The Midterms (NYT)

• Conspiracy Theory (Journal of the Plague Years)

• US approves Patriot missile sale to Ukraine (Reuters)

• As Trump fans the flames of a world on fire, can diplomacy take back control? (Guardian)

• Gen Z protests turn violent in Germany (FT)

• Hundreds of thousands of protesters march across France for third week in a row (Politico)

• Stocks take a pounding (Reuters)

• Surviving “The Graduate” (New Yorker)

AI NEWS:

• In San Francisco’s A.I. Boom, a First Date Has Become an Interview (NYT)

• A Defense Contractor Gave Their Personal AI Agent Access to a Secure Pentagon System (Wired)

• The Smartest People in AI Believe This Is the World’s Most Important Chart (WSJ)

• Supersonic airliner in doubt as company shifts to powering AI data centers (ArsTechnica)

• How AI went from fringe idea to unstoppable force (Reuters)

• Scooby-Doo Retires After Taking Skydance Buyout (Onion)

Dirty Tricksters

 Both Halloween and elections bring out tricksters and this year is no exception. It looks like Republican Vivek Ramaswamy’s tasteless ad featuring Democrat Amy Acton’s estranged mother has backfired in the Ohio Governor’s race.

Acton leads in the polls going into Election Day, Ramaswamy has pulled the ad, and Kalshi now gives Acton a 79 percent chance of winning.

Up in Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign may survive the dubious ploy of getting another guy named Dan Sullivan to run in the Senate race against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan.

The New York Times came out with a story that stirred the pot in this one, but Peltola is leading the polls. Republicans are threatening to refuse to certify her seat if she wins.

Kalshi still likes Peltola by a wide margin, 70-30.

As long as there have been elections, there have been dirty tricks. For that matter, as long as there’s been Halloween, there have been tricksters.

Hopefully the latter are more lovable than the former.

Happy Halloween! (Pumpkin by Julia)

HEADLINES:

• Judge bars DoJ from threats to election workers as Trump to hold tele-rallies three days before elections (Guardian)

• El-Sayed campaign wants Stevens to stay away after day of back-and-forth sniping (Politico)

• An obscure website has become a major force in the election information machine. It’s called Ballot Brief and we’ve identified numerous mistakes on the site. (WP)

• Court Rejects Latest Trump Effort to Impound California Ballots (NYT)

• FBI visits Dan J. Sullivan donor in candidate’s home town as Alaska Senate inquiry widens (AP)

• Alaska Senate candidate denies knowing about alleged plot to put two Dan Sullivans on ballot (BBC)

• Alaska Senate: Judge fast tracks new bids to dismiss DOJ lawsuit over 2nd Sullivan candidacy (CNBC)

• In reversal, Trump to rally in Iowa and Kansas in final days before midterms (Guardian)

• Vance is asked about affordability in America and immediately starts talking about senator’s a** (Independent)

• Inside Trump’s midterm ‘dog fight’ and the scramble for his attention (Politico)

• Christian Nationalist-Backed Candidates Still Run Stealth Campaigns…and Win (Daily Kos)

• The cognitive dissonance election (Silver Bulletin)

• Pope Leo makes history by voting in US midterms (CNN)

• Brash architect of Trump’s midterm strategy could become midterm scapegoat (WP)

• A farm lobby group is spending big on advertisements to defeat Republicans in the midterms, as President Trump’s approval rating among rural voters slides to its lowest ever in Reuters/Ipsos polling. (Reuters)

• Even if the Trump administration’s attempts to meddle in the midterms are unrealistic or rejected by courts, legal experts, voting rights groups and voters themselves say the chaos and intimidation that come with those efforts are the point. [HuffPost]

• Houston Grand Jury Indicts ICE Agent on Charges of Ramming Man in Chase (NYT)

• Federal judge signals she may halt construction on Trump’s arch (WP)

• Xi vs Trump on Corruption (China Talk)

• Oil flows are up as Iran war turmoil eases. Why do prices keep rising? (Al Jazeera)

• U.S. Oil Industry Earned Over $130 Billion in Profit During Iran War (NYT)

• Difficult negotiations lie ahead in Israel after Netanyahu’s bloc loses its parliamentary majority (AP)

• Researchers Uncover Signs of Massive Surveillance Operation on Starlink Users (Gizmodo)

• Boston Dynamics Faces Employee Protest Over Robot Deal With ICE (Cnet)

• Massive crypto hack probably the largest theft of digital currencies in history (WP)

• Christa Pike makes first public comments since botched execution: ‘Healing is not the same as being okay’ (CNN)

• The Diplomat Has Achieved Something Most Netflix Original Shows Never Do (TV Line)

AI NEWS:

• This electric screwdriver uses a camera and AI to figure out what bit you need (Verge)

• How One Country Became the Unlikely Crossroads of the Global A.I. Boom (NYT)

• Macmillan Staff Say the Publisher Threw a Party for a Workplace AI Assistant That Was Later Killed (Wired)

• What does OpenAI’s progress mean for scientists? (Economist)

• The AI build-out has given America ‘Dutch disease’ (WP)

• A Powerful Mosquito-Hunting Laser Uses A.I. to Zap Winged Pests (NYT)

• NYSE Opens Spirit Realm Stock Trading For One Night A Year (Onion)

Home Stretch

“Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes.” — Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll

Over half the people voting in this year’s elections will have cast their ballots by Election Day, which is next Tuesday.

We’ve now enter the Twilight Zone phase of an election when the polls no longer have much impact (it’s too late) and the prediction markets are pretty much set in place, with some notable exceptions. Kalshi has the Democrats’s chances in the House at 92 percent and in the Senate at 69 percent.

Among major races the odds have flipped in one. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass now has a 60 percent chance of retaining her job over challenger Nithya Raman (40 percent). Raman had been leading in the betting until recently.

In the contentious Ohio Governor’s race, the Democrat Amy Acton is given a commanding chance (80 percent) to beat the GOP’s Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy has finally taken down his offensive ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar. That's him raising the white flag.

In another controversial contest, Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola is given a 68 percent chance over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The “other” Dan Sullivan in this race is given no chance to prevail. It looks like Trump's plan is to try and prevent her from claiming her seat in the Senate.

***

The degree to which you give credence to any of these numbers is probably consistent with whether you believe in the “wisdom of the crowds” hypothesis.

I do, which is why I am citing the predictions this time around. Oh yeah, one last datapoint. It looks like Trump is abandoning the campaign trail at the end. He has cancelled visits to Kansas and Iowa.

HEADLINES:

• Our forecast of the midterms’ outcome (Economist)

• A Guide to the 2026 Midterms (New Yorker)

• US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump cancels two rallies (Al Jazeera)

• Alaska governor orders investigation into Democrat Mary Peltola’s Senate campaign (Guardian)

• Senate braces for nasty fight over seating Peltola after Alaska Senate race (The Hill)

• Live Midterm Election Updates: Trump campaigns in South Carolina for Darline Graham and more from the trail (CBS)

• Judge rejects Justice Department bid to set aside California ballots (WP)

• Justice Dept. Pressures California With Expanded Election Investigation (NYT)

• Republicans Tried to Undercut Black Voters. It’s Blowing Up in Their Faces. (Bulwark)

• Trump fired him. The ‘DEI Watchlist’ shamed him. Then came 500 job rejections. (WP)

• Ilhan Omar Investigation Involves New Scrutiny of Long-Disputed Marriage (NYT)

• The Four Academics Who Dreamed Up California’s Billionaire Tax (WSJ)

• Marked Down: Trump’s trick or treat (Money Trail)

• Hegseth’s team forces out another top Pentagon general, officials say (WP)

• In Her Final Months, Dolores Huerta Was Lauded for Revealing a Deep Secret (NYT)

• Netanyahu falls short of majority as Israel faces three possible paths to a new government (Fox)

• Israel’s Parties Gird for Wrangling to Form a Government, With No Clear Path (NYT)

• What we know of Vance’s letter to Rezaei, as Trump warns Gulf to ‘prepare’ (Al Jazeera)

• US warns allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes, retaliation after elections (AP)

• The strange math that shows how Trump got Venezuela to ‘gift’ oil to the United States (CNN)

• Record number of purges as Xi emphasises ‘party discipline’ at China political gathering (BBC)

• French Protests Are Hijacked by Agitators (Nation)

• Experts warn of wider spread as Ebola outbreak reaches plateau (AP)

• Return of the poppy — Taliban’s poppy ban falters as Afghan farmers say they can’t feed their children (Reuters)

• ‘The Diplomat’ Renewed for Season 5 at Netflix (Variety)

AI NEWS:

• Amazon Hedges Against AI Shopping Agents With 250 Million Outside Listings (The Information)

• I Used AI to Fake a Scientific Paper. Here’s What Happened (IEEE)

• The Solution to AI’s Alignment Problem is Precise Guardrails on How We Use It (TechPolicy)

• Worried about a new wave of AI hacks? Take these steps right now. (WP)

• Nvidia Chief Seen as Target of Chinese Spy Plot (NYT)

• Roasting China’s AI Industry (ChinaTalk)

• Top Dartmouth Leader Steps Down Over Undisclosed A.I. Use in Writings (NYT)

• He called for an AI slowdown, then told investors he’d race ahead (WP)

• Republicans Privately Urging Trump To Not Be President Leading Up To Midterms (Onion)