Dirty Tricks

 

Home Stretch

“Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes.” — Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll

Over half the people voting in this year’s elections will have cast their ballots by Election Day, which is next Tuesday.

We’ve now enter the Twilight Zone phase of an election when the polls no longer have much impact (it’s too late) and the prediction markets are pretty much set in place, with some notable exceptions. Kalshi has the Democrats’s chances in the House at 92 percent and in the Senate at 69 percent.

Among major races the odds have flipped in one. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass now has a 60 percent chance of retaining her job over challenger Nithya Raman (40 percent). Raman had been leading in the betting until recently.

In the contentious Ohio Governor’s race, the Democrat Amy Acton is given a commanding chance (80 percent) to beat the GOP’s Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy has finally taken down his offensive ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother calling her a liar. That's him raising the white flag.

In another controversial contest, Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola is given a 68 percent chance over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The “other” Dan Sullivan in this race is given no chance to prevail. It looks like Trump's plan is to try and prevent her from claiming her seat in the Senate.

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The degree to which you give credence to any of these numbers is probably consistent with whether you believe in the “wisdom of the crowds” hypothesis.

I do, which is why I am citing the predictions this time around. Oh yeah, one last datapoint. It looks like Trump is abandoning the campaign trail at the end. He has cancelled visits to Kansas and Iowa.

HEADLINES:

• Our forecast of the midterms’ outcome (Economist)

• A Guide to the 2026 Midterms (New Yorker)

• US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump cancels two rallies (Al Jazeera)

• Alaska governor orders investigation into Democrat Mary Peltola’s Senate campaign (Guardian)

• Senate braces for nasty fight over seating Peltola after Alaska Senate race (The Hill)

• Live Midterm Election Updates: Trump campaigns in South Carolina for Darline Graham and more from the trail (CBS)

• Judge rejects Justice Department bid to set aside California ballots (WP)

• Justice Dept. Pressures California With Expanded Election Investigation (NYT)

• Republicans Tried to Undercut Black Voters. It’s Blowing Up in Their Faces. (Bulwark)

• Trump fired him. The ‘DEI Watchlist’ shamed him. Then came 500 job rejections. (WP)

• Ilhan Omar Investigation Involves New Scrutiny of Long-Disputed Marriage (NYT)

• The Four Academics Who Dreamed Up California’s Billionaire Tax (WSJ)

• Marked Down: Trump’s trick or treat (Money Trail)

• Hegseth’s team forces out another top Pentagon general, officials say (WP)

• In Her Final Months, Dolores Huerta Was Lauded for Revealing a Deep Secret (NYT)

• Netanyahu falls short of majority as Israel faces three possible paths to a new government (Fox)

• Israel’s Parties Gird for Wrangling to Form a Government, With No Clear Path (NYT)

• What we know of Vance’s letter to Rezaei, as Trump warns Gulf to ‘prepare’ (Al Jazeera)

• US warns allies to prepare for possible Iran strikes, retaliation after elections (AP)

• The strange math that shows how Trump got Venezuela to ‘gift’ oil to the United States (CNN)

• Record number of purges as Xi emphasises ‘party discipline’ at China political gathering (BBC)

• French Protests Are Hijacked by Agitators (Nation)

• Experts warn of wider spread as Ebola outbreak reaches plateau (AP)

• Return of the poppy — Taliban’s poppy ban falters as Afghan farmers say they can’t feed their children (Reuters)

• ‘The Diplomat’ Renewed for Season 5 at Netflix (Variety)

AI NEWS:

• Amazon Hedges Against AI Shopping Agents With 250 Million Outside Listings (The Information)

• I Used AI to Fake a Scientific Paper. Here’s What Happened (IEEE)

• The Solution to AI’s Alignment Problem is Precise Guardrails on How We Use It (TechPolicy)

• Worried about a new wave of AI hacks? Take these steps right now. (WP)

• Nvidia Chief Seen as Target of Chinese Spy Plot (NYT)

• Roasting China’s AI Industry (ChinaTalk)

• Top Dartmouth Leader Steps Down Over Undisclosed A.I. Use in Writings (NYT)

• He called for an AI slowdown, then told investors he’d race ahead (WP)

• Republicans Privately Urging Trump To Not Be President Leading Up To Midterms (Onion)

Duck Stop on the Potomac

It looks ever more likely that the Democrats are going to take control of Congress in this year’s elections, which will turn Donald Trump into a true lame duck.

Maybe it will be time to start calling him Donald Duck.

And I have a plan for him that just might make sense. We know that Donald doesn’t really care about the Republicans, anyway, so why not make a few deals with the Democrats, since they now will control Congress?

They will certainly be passing bills that aim to lower costs, improve health care, preserve the environment and regulate AI, among other things. And that could end up being a lasting legacy.

So what if rather than vetoing them — which everyone expects — Duck signs them and takes all the credit?

Do that, Mr. President, and the Democrats might let you have your ballroom and your supersized golden arch, the latter of which can be dubbed the “Duck Stop on the Potomac,” in your everlasting honor.

(Latest numbers from Kalshi: Democrats have a 91 percent chance of winning the House and a 67 percent of winning the Senate. Donald Trump has a 100 percent chance of being a lame duck.)

HEADLINES:

• The seven races that will decide control of the Senate (WP)

• These are the House races to watch in the 2026 midterm election on Nov. 3 (NPR)
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• What our final poll before Election Day says about midterms and Trump (PBS)

• Trump’s speeches take on darker tone (NBC)

• Ken Paxton’s State-Funded Jet-Setting Draws Campaign Scrutiny (NYT)

• Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign reportedly recruited second Dan Sullivan in Alaska Senate race (Guardian)

• Trump demands Alaska candidates be removed over alleged ballot scheme (Al Jazeera)

• Alaska election officials oppose Trump DOJ’s involvement in Senate race (CNN)

• Vivek Ramaswamy was warned not to air ‘liar’ ad and now staff want to resign days before election: report (Independent)

• Netanyahu bloc slightly ahead in Israel elections but short of majority as most votes counted (BBC)

• Netanyahu is the ultimate survivor. But can he survive this time? (CNN)

• Arab parties on course for 17 seats in Israel election, early results show (Al Jazeera)

• How to Secure the Straits (Foreign Affairs)

• Iran pressed to make nuke concessions as massive post-midterms strikes loom (Axios)

• Bolsonaro lands in US, declares himself ‘leader’ of Brazil (DW)

• Federal Reserve Keeps Rates Unchanged Despite Elevated Inflation (HP)

• Fed meeting recap: Warsh says central bank will host fewer rate-setting meetings in future years (CNBC)

• US economy beats forecasts to grow at 3.4% rate in third quarter (FT)

• RFK Jr. rebuked for derogatory claim about ‘Arabs in the world’ (The Hill)

• RFK Jr. eases access to unproven peptides despite opposition from FDA scientists (AP)

• CDC warns of rising threat of drug-resistant germs, which kill 50,000 people per year (NBC)

• How Do You Solve a Problem Like Elon Musk? (Bulwark)

• Conservative influencer James O’Keefe charged with unlawful voting and identity theft in Minnesota (NBC)

• Leak website releases data on tens of thousands of DHS employees (Reuters)

• When ICE Comes for a MAGA Supporter (Atlantic)

• Inside the Billionaires’ War Against California’s Proposed Wealth Tax (NYT)

• Trump says he will ban the term artificial intelligence (The Hill)

• Boston Dynamics Faces Employee Protest Over Robot Deal With ICE (Cnet)

• DoorDash to Buy Instacart for $17 Billion, Uniting 2 Delivery Giants (NYT)

• In southern Chile, locals push to protect oceans that have been hurt by intensive salmon farming (AP)

• Christine Lagarde to Step Down as Chief of European Central Bank (NYT)

• Why Gen Z are leading protests across Europe. (Reuters)

• Religion Remains Stable in the U.S., With Mixed Signals for Young Adults (Pew)

• How to be happy: Tips from the pioneers of well‑being research (The Conversation)

• How to stop a ‘what if’ anxiety spiral before it takes over (WP)

AI NEWS:

• Anthropic’s constitutional order (FT)

• As AI agents reshape the web, Google opens Gemini and Search to more apps (TechCrunch)

• China unveils 13-foot robot that can lift a cow (Independent)

• Anthropic IPO filing warns some risks may be uninsurable. AI coverage will be issue for every company (CNBC)

• Inside Anthropic’s IPO + How AI Agents Spy on Your Messages (NPR)

• Dueling proofs from OpenAI and Anthropic astound scientists (SciAm)

• The AI boom is starting to break time-tested stock-market signals (MarketWatch)

• China’s AI Jobs Problem: What Economists Fear and Why the Fixes May Fall Short (ChinaTalk)

• An AI safety leader says he stopped saving for retirement (BI)

• Trump Drowns In 2-Inch Puddle (Onion)

 

Silver Tongue

Nate Silver is one of the most prominent election forecasters in America, but he stresses that he is not a pollster. If you want to try and guess what the results of next Tuesday’s midterm elections are going to be, read or listen to his conversation with Ezra Klein of the New York Times.

I’m hesitant to summarize it because the nuance is where all the rough edges get smoothed. But here goes:

• Democrats should flip enough seats in the Senate to take control of that body along with the House.

• One of the biggest factors is that midterms are always a judgement about the incumbent President, even though he is not on the ballot, and Trump has low approval ratings.

• Trump’s rural, white voter base may not turn out in the numbers Republicans need to ward off a Democratic victory.

• While the major Democratic candidates for key Senate races are not perfect, the Republican candidates are bad.

• The polls could still be wrong and the results could surprise us.

• A lot of the anxiety over affordability, jobs and the future revolves around AI.

• AI may well be the major issue in 2028. And the next President will not be an old man.

There’s much more, so give the article or podcast a look. My conclusions from this and all the other sources I monitor is that Democrats are poised for a big win but not a mandate. What they do with their new power will probably be pivotal in the 2028 presidential election.

HEADLINES:

• How Trump and his allies are sowing doubt ahead of the midterms (WP)

• Nate Silver on What the Polls Say — and What His Gut’s Telling Him (NYT)

• Israeli exit polls indicate deadlock in pivotal election as Netanyahu faces main rival Eisenkot (Reuters)

• With over 85% of votes counted, pro-Netanyahu bloc gets 53 seats, Eisenkot-led bloc at 48 and Arab parties have 19. (Times of Israel)

• At Least 64 Killed in Train Crash in Spain, Officials Say (NYT)

• Romanian president calls alleged Russian sabotage plot a 'grave violation' of NATO member's security (AP)

• Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil after presidential election loss, reports say (Guardian)

• The U.S. Called It Putin’s ‘Slush Fund.’ Now Trump May Drop Sanctions on It. (NYT)

• Pretti family accuses federal government of ‘shielding Alex’s killers’ (MS-T)

• Hackers target US FEC system, disrupting campaign finance disclosures days before midterms (Reuters)

• Grand Jury Declines to Bring Charges Against Cassidy Hutchinson (NYT)

• The Art of the Deal: Jared Kushner’s Hacked Phone Revealed His Secret Negotiations—Including More Than $700 Million in Transfers (Vanity Fair)

• Trump to Loosen Rules for Oil Firms on Methane, a Potent Warming Gas (NYT)

• How Long Until the Internet Breaks? (Atlantic)

• At 80, he’s a top dementia expert. Here’s how he keeps his brain healthy. (WP)

• While global tech stocks teeter, China’s have already crashed as lofty valuations collapse under worries about AI demand and curbs on Chinese exports. (Reuters)

AI NEWS:

• Why Anthropic’s IPO contrasts the ‘cult of Elon Musk’ at SpaceX and Tesla (Yahoo)

• As AI threatens entry-level jobs, Gen Z is souring on if another degree can help—U.S. business school applications have plunged 25% (Fortune)

• There’s not enough money in the world to pay for the AI boom (WP)

• Anthropic’s elaborate plan to keep Wall Street at bay (Verge)

• An AI safety leader says he stopped saving for retirement because he believes AI will kill us all in the next 10 years (BI)

• A.I.’s Rogue Behavior Starts With Its Training (NYT)

• Career Experts Advise Job Applicants To Send Interviewer Follow-Up Blackmail (Onion)

 

What the Gamblers Say

One week before Election Day, roughly a third of the likely voters have already cast their ballots. The gamblers at Kalshi continue to give Democrats a 64 percent chance of winning control of the Senate.

In three key races, they believe Democrats will prevail -- Talarico will beat Paxton in Texas (65-35); Jackson will beat Collins in Maine (60-40); and El-Sayed will beat Rogers in Michigan (68-32). These are the odds, not the expected margin of victory.

The polls indicate very close races nearly within the margin of error.

I don’t think anyone believes the Republicans can hold on to the House; Hakeem Jeffries will be the next Speaker.

Just 29 percent think now Trump will declare some sort of election emergency if Democrats win control of Congress. The good news is that 71 percent think he won’t.

This one time let’s hope the gamblers are right on all counts.

HEADLINES:

• Appeals Court Declines to Intervene in California Ballot Lawsuit. By a 2-1 vote, a federal appeals court panel denied the Trump administration’s request that it immediately order the state to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots. (NYT)

• U.K. charges 2 men arrested over alleged Iran-linked terror plot against RAF Fairford air base used by U.S. (CBS)

• Bolsonaro’s party accepts Brazil election after Trump calls vote ‘rigged’ (Al Jazeera)

• Trump DOJ unlawfully fired Epstein prosecutor Maurene Comey, judge rules (CNBC)

• Justice Dept. Brings More Charges Against James Comey, Accusing Him of Leaks (NYT)

• The anti-Bibi candidate who has Netanyahu on his heels (Axios)

• Netanyahu Pushed for Attack on Iran Ahead of Israeli Election, Officials Say (NYT)

• America’s Least Bad Option in Iran (Foreign Policy)

• Celebrations in Serbia after veteran ruler Vučić loses election to student-led protest movement (BBC)

• Did Substack Fix the Internet? (New Yorker)

• U.S. Allies Race to Escape SpaceX’s Orbit (WSJ)

• French student protesters say government offered them deal, but they want more (Reuters)

• Drone warfare could save NATO (The Hill)

• White House is sued again over media bans as press groups seek wider injunction (WP)

• Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ohio gov bid in chaos as allies and venues drop him over Acton attack ad (Independent)

• Troubled By Trump’s Immigrant Round-Ups, Will Hispanic Evangelicals, Vote Republican, Democrat or Stay Home? (SmirkingChimp)

• The sleeper issue that could decide the U.S. Senate race in Texas (WP)

• The time has come for ‘Medicare for All’ (Money Trail)

• Berkeley Considers Starting a Public Bank With Taxpayer Dollars (NYT)

• A former beauty pageant contestant who has said she rebuffed a sexual advance from Trump in 1993 now says Trump raped her during the encounter, according to a report from the House Democrats who will take the lead on any potential impeachment of Trump next year. [HuffPost]

• A wild winter is brewing. Here’s what meteorologists want you to know. (WP)

AI NEWS:

• The markets are starting to act seriously weird. Blame AI (CNN)

• Anthropic begins countdown to IPO with prospectus filing (FT)

• The AI boom is nearly $5 trillion short of paying for itself, Gartner says (Fortune)

• CoreWeave, AI landlord stocks sink to lowest levels in more than a year as the price of insuring CoreWeave's debt doubles (Yahoo)

• 12 AI models were asked what they really think about humans — and almost all agreed on one uncomfortable truth (Tom’s Guide)

• Anthropic files for potentially the biggest IPO ever as CEO warns of risk to humanity from AI (AP)

• Here’s how insanely rich Anthropic’s IPO is about to make its 7 cofounders (BI)

• What Anthropic left out of their draft S-1 (Marcus)

• US political candidates tailor messages for AI models used by voters. (Reuters)

• It took just 12 hours for an AI start-up founded by ex-DOGE staffers to break into Anthropic (WP)

• Microsoft offers a quarter of its global workforce voluntary buyouts as AI spending accelerates (AP)

• Election Officials Warn That Ballots Tied To Stray Cat Unlikely To Arrive In Time (Onion)

 

The Frontlines

The New Yorker has published what is both a disturbing yet also encouraging report about the threats election officials around the country are facing from Trump’s followers: “…persistent lies about voter fraud, a centerpiece of Trump’s political narrative, have set loose torrents of hostility toward the men and women who oversee balloting nationwide.”

• In Utah, the lieutenant governor, a Republican, lives under constant threats to her life since standing up to Trump by opposing his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

• In a national survey of local election officials this year, a third of them reported that they had personally been subjected to threats, harassment, or abuse because of their work. Half said they feared for the safety of their colleagues.

• This year, multiple federal agencies, following Trump’s directives, attempted to strong-arm state election officials long before the first votes were cast.

• In a string of nearly identical lawsuits, filed beginning in September, 2025, (Trump’s Justice Department) accused chief election officers in thirty states and the District of Columbia of violating Title III of the Civil Rights Act by failing to hand over electronic copies of their unredacted voter-registration lists. All but one state fought the lawsuits, including seven that had Republican chief election officers.

• Since the litigation began, twenty-seven U.S. district judges and one appellate panel have reached decisions. All of them ruled against the Trump Administration. The Trump Administration’s efforts to cull the electorate before the midterms have, by and large, failed. Courts stripped the President’s executive orders of meaningful impact.

• If one thing has been decisive in safeguarding the nation’s electoral machinery, it is the tenacity of state officials who willingly accepted the political, financial, and personal risks of defying the President. They did so in a strong majority of states, including some under Republican control.

There is much more in this excellent article, which is worth reading in anticipation of what’s to come during this year’s midterm elections, State election officials form the frontline in defending democracy from the man who would be king.

HEADLINES:

• The State Officials Defending the Midterms from the President (New Yorker)

• Brazil Re-Elects Lula, Rejecting Predecessor’s Son (NYT)

• Venezuela’s opposition leader María Corina Machado returns after months in exile (NPR)

• Student List wins Serbian election in political earthquake as Vučić concedes defeat (EuroNews)

• Blanche defends DoJ’s pre-emptive suit to block Alaska Senate results certification (Guardian)

• Trump’s DOJ told a judge how to rule. Then it pulled her from court. (WP)

• Trump Says He Doesn’t ‘Give A Damn’ About Gas Prices As US Making ‘Fortune’ (Newsweek)

• ho's on Air Force One? Trump's midterms entourage includes strategists, aides and aging athletes (AP)

• Let’s talk shop about every Senate race (Silver Bulletin)

• How Ohio Trump Voters Reacted to Vivek’s Attack Ad (Bulwark)

• The winners and losers of Trumponomics (Economist)

• Trump administration has pushed off 13% of Americans enrolled in food stamps (Guardian)

• He resigned from CDC leadership. Now he’s fighting RFK Jr. from the outside. (WP)

• Police arrest a 15-year-old in shooting near Florida A&M stadium that injured 12 (NBC)

• Measles surge exposes Republicans’ vulnerability on vaccines (FT)

AI NEWS:

• Google’s AI search changes upended online publishing (Verge)

• An inside look of the massive data center tearing a Wisconsin community apart (NPR)

• Grok releases the first seven minutes of its AI-generated ‘Odyssey’ (TechCrunch)

• To make AI morally good, tech companies are turning to religion. But some say it isn’t that simple (AP)

Bad Bedfellows

 Elon Musk says he was behind the slowdown in Starlink service in Ukraine that resulted in Russian missiles killing civilians. As others have noted, it is outrageous that a private citizen has the power to conduct U.S. foreign policy, especially during a war.

But this isn’t unprecedented. Younger readers need only Goggle “William Randolph Hearst and the Spanish-American War of 1898.”

I seriously doubt Musk acted alone. It’s obvious his sudden order to slow down Ukraine’s Starlink connection due to a “violation” was in concert with Trump’s attempts to bring new pressure on Zelenskyy to come to the bargaining table with Putin.

Trump favors Putin and is trying to give him an upper hand in any future ceasefire negotiations. As Trump’s biggest backer, the world’s richest man is also one of the most corrupt.

Bad Bedfellows.

HEADLINES:

• Sporadic violence flares as hundreds of thousands protest in France (Reuters)

• More than 400,000 protest across France, challenging Macron as Paris clashes erupt (PBS)

• Is Iran planning attacks on Americans; why is the US on alert? (Al Jazeera)

• Iran has “increased efforts to target U.S. personnel,” intel chief warns (CBS)

• Iran says won’t allow US warships to get close as Trump ponders new attacks (Al Jazeera)

• Musk says he was behind Starlink speed restriction after service in Ukraine is restored (AP)

• Inside the US-Starlink relationship (Reuters)

• How Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia crippled the world’s second-largest diesel supplier (CNBC)

• Russian diesel is coming to America (Reuters)

• Trump’s Words Used Against Him in Alaska Lawsuit, DOJ Sanctions Sought (Newsweek)

• Obama Issues Searing Attacks on Trump, Ramaswamy in Return to Campaign Trail (NYT)

• Trump says he ordered suit to block Alaska Senate results if GOP loses (PBS)

• Why Are We Still Talking About Voting Rights in 2026? (Reveal)

• Cook Political moves Ohio governor’s race after Ramaswamy attack ad (WP)

• The EPA Is Quietly Killing its Web Archive (Mother Jones)

• Jon Ossoff’s films exposed corruption. Then his colleague was murdered. (WP)

• Records offer a picture of the Oregon school shooter’s tumultuous home life (NBC)

• Kim Jong-un Makes First Visit to China in Over a Year (NYT)

• ‘A bow isn’t simply a greeting’: The unspoken rules of Japanese body language (BBC)

• What is a neutrino anyway? A look at the science behind this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics (Phys.org)

• A Mother on Trial (New Yorker)

• Elizabeth Holmes Whistleblower Says Nathan Fielder ‘Chose to Ignore the Truth’ to Make a Better Movie (The Wrap)

AI NEWS:

• Sam Altman: ‘I No Longer Think We’re Gonna Be Able to Just Patch All the Bugs’ (Gizmodo)

• Google told to halt work on Finnish data centers after clearing an estimated 250,000 trees before environmental review was done (Fortune)

• How AI is transforming economic research and analysis (Axios)

• AI ad mocks Talarico as Bible-defacing radical. Democrats bet it will backfire. (WP)

• ‘Most likely to kick some ass’: Before founding Anthropic, Dario Amodei was a standout at Lowell (SFC)

• ‘Now My Breasts Are Over Here,’ Announces Sydney Sweeney Peeking Out From Oak Tree (Onion)