Thursday, April 09, 2026

The Leaf

One summer afternoon when I was a young boy in Michigan, I was lying on my back in a field staring up at a large tree. It was one of those windless days, hot and still. 

After a while, I realized that a single leaf was for no apparent reason turning on its stem. As far as I could see, this leaf was identical to all the other leaves on the tree, but it was the only one moving.

Why? 

One leaf turning might have a story. Many leaves holding in place most likely do not.

The problem with this for journalists is that by focusing on the exception to the rule, we may give the impression that the rule is no longer in order. An example of this is crime reporting. Covering one shocking crime too intensely can create the illusion that an entire city is “awash in crime” when the fact is the opposite is true. 

In fact, most dramatic crimes are actually just anomalies. 

Of course, there is an entirely different way to tell any story. That solitary leaf I saw may have been ahead of its time — portending a climate disaster to come when all the other leaves remained quiet, steady in place, doing what they were expected to do.

In other words, the swinging leaf was a whistleblower, a ‘canary in the coal mine,’ an indicator of bigger problems.

On to the investigative reporter, who picks up on the signal and spots a pattern that may provide an explanation for the turning leaf. After observing hundreds of trees, with many thousands of leaves, and interviewing numerous scientists, none of whom can say for sure, the reporter writes a more nuanced story based on the data.

In this new story, we learn that there are many such single leaves on many trees turning slowly on windless days where no one is there to see. But it is also possible that if no one saw them then that didn’t really happen. (Quantum physics.) Then again, perhaps there is a new disease affecting our trees that we need to address if we are to save the forest.

Anyone trying to follow these various stories may think back to that one single leaf turning on a windless day long ago. In that case, you might say that the storyteller wasn’t able to see the forest for the trees.

(This is the latest version of one of my oldest essays.)

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Wednesday, April 08, 2026

Slow Down, Christian Soldiers


I can still remember the words to that oddly militant hymn sung in my church as a youth:

“Onward, Christian soldiers, 
marching as to war,
With the cross of Jesus
going on before!
Christ, the royal Master,
leads against the foe;
Forward into battle,
see his banner go!”

I didn’t like the song then and I don’t like it now. But the difference is that today, under the expansionist “Christian Nationalism” of Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth, for the first time I fear the meaning behind its lyrics.

By threatening the "whole civilization” of Iran with destruction Monday, Trump tried to frame his illegal war against Iran into a fight to the death between Islam and Christianity.

He also committed a war crime, according to modern standards.

In the process, he sank to the same hateful level as the mullahs who’ve run Iran for 47 years with their “Death to America” and “Death to the Jews” chants.

The great majority of the Iranian people do not share those sentiments at all. Like you and me, they love their families and friends, they work hard, and they hope for a safer, more secure world for their children and grandchildren.

Then, with the world holding its collective breath, just before his so-called deadline last night, Trump backed down. He did what he usually does — change his mind — and for that we can thank whatever God we believe in (or not). It’s obvious that for now he has seized the cover of a two-week ceasefire agreement offered via Pakistan to try and save face from the horror of his earlier statement.

But so much damage has been done. 

Meanwhile, Iran now claims it has achieved control over the Strait of Hormuz under the new ceasefire, which if true would constitute an epic failure on Trump’s part. Like most of the Crusades of yore, this one too appears to be ending in failure.

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Tuesday, April 07, 2026

Dire Straits

From the Times: “Trump warned that a “whole civilization will die tonight” if Iran does not make a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. Eastern, as the U.S. attacked Iran’s main oil export hub.

“Trump issued the grave warning in a post on social media on Tuesday as a new round of attacks was launched across the Middle East.

“The U.S. attacked Kharg Island, the export hub, Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks and Israel’s military warned Iranians to avoid traveling by train. The increasingly incendiary threats and the intense fighting reinforced the fragile state of diplomacy, with no public signs of a diplomatic breakthrough to end the war.”

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Monday, April 06, 2026

Going Rogue

(This is from last April, well before Trump’s wars in Venezuela and Iran. It’s worth rereading.)

In his essay in Foreign Affairs called The Age of American Unilateralism — How a Rogue Superpower Will Remake the Global Order, political scientist Michael Beckley suggests that the Trump administration’s controversial foreign policy moves may signal a permanent shift away from the liberal world order that has characterized the past 80 years or so.

Here are a few of his major points:

  • The American-led liberal order has outlived its original purpose, growing into a maze of burdens and vulnerabilities. It didn’t fail, but it triumphed over threats that no longer exist: the devastation of World War II and the spread of communism.

  • Globalization fueled growth but hollowed out American industries and concentrated the gains. Between 2000 and 2020, U.S. industrial output (excluding semiconductors) fell nearly ten percent, and one in three factory jobs disappeared. Nearly all net job growth went to the richest 20 percent of zip codes, leaving much of the country behind.

  • The social fallout has been staggering: rising disability claims, drug overdoses, and prime-age workers dropping out of the labor force at Great Depression–level numbers. Many wounded communities retain political clout thanks to an electoral system that amplifies rural voices over urban majorities. The result: a hard pivot away from liberal internationalism and toward protectionism and border controls.

  • 77 percent of young Americans are unfit to serve in the military, largely because of obesity, drug use, and lack of education. Trump plans to unveil a $1 trillion defense budget, but rebuilding the U.S. defense industrial base could take years.

  • (B)y treating global affairs like a transactional hustle, the United States risks tearing down the very system that has kept the peace for generations. Trade wars don’t just raise prices. They unravel alliances and push rivals toward confrontation. That’s how the world fell apart in the 1930s: protectionism, fear, and rising powers with no way to grow but through force.

  • The goal isn’t just to win a great-power contest. It’s to channel it; to fix what’s broken at home and shape a world that reflects American interests and values. A free world that works—for the United States and for those willing and able to stand with it.

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Sunday, April 05, 2026

Will Writers Survive?

A sprawling article in The New Republic back in 2024 was one of many that questioned whether artificial intelligence (AI) spelled the end for human writers. Two years later, that question is as vital as ever.

“If a computer can write like a person, what does that say about the nature of our own creativity?” asked the author, Samanth Subramanian.

The answer was, after a long winding trail of considerations, that nobody can yet say for sure, at least according to this author. But he leaned into the notion that human writers would prevail in the end.

The key word in this equation is “human.” In our society, human writers do much more than simply write. They invent and provoke and stimulate and define. They give voice to voiceless as well as to the unspeakable. They create the public narratives that help define both our social and private lives.

In fiction and nonfiction alike, they articulate the inner longings of the human spirit, which machines may emulate but cannot replicate. They connect people with each other through stories. They even can evoke the ineffable — that which cannot be captured by words.

Like artists of all kinds, writers’ work can be copied — we call it plagiarism — but as creators they themselves cannot be replaced. AI may take away many of the jobs writers have; if so that will be a tragedy. But the writers will remain.

Writing is so much more than turning a phrase, word-smithing or even telling a story. Fundamentally, it’s about forging authentic human connections one at a time, word by word.

That will always be superior, IMHO, to the artificial connections enacted by machines.

And only a human being can tell the difference.

(This is an update of an essay I wrote last April.)

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Saturday, April 04, 2026

Rumors

Who’s next? 

The Times of India is reporting that Trump is considering firing FBI Director Kash Patel.

Nobody else seems to be reporting that rumor yet, but if true, it couldn’t happen to a more worthy fellow (of getting fired, that is).

Meanwhile, another reliable source, Military.com, is reporting that the jets shot down over Iran are the first ones to suffer that fate in 20 years.

But the photo above reminds us just how stupid all of these fights and controversies truly are. It was shot by the astronauts flying around the moon.

And it should be yet another reminder that while we’re all in this together, too many among us act as if they feel the opposite is true.

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Friday, April 03, 2026

Chaos at the Top

The firings are underway. Trump dumped Pam Bondi soon after he fired Kristi Noem. Not a good time to be a woman in Trump’s Cabinet.

Hegseth fired the Army’s top general in the middle of a war. What kind of message does that send the troops massing in the Middle East?

Trump wants $1.5 trillion for his defense budget while saying (out loud) his administration cannot pay for daycare. 

Meanwhile, the fired Army chief understood and was arguing for greater development of relatively inexpensive drone and anti-drone technologies in favor of the massive weapons packages favored by Hegseth’s war contractors.

Trumps frenetic posting behavior on his social media platform sets policy while Congress sits on the sidelines doing nothing.

Chaos at the top leads to stagnation everywhere else.

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