Truth vs. Conspiracy

Today’s recommended reading: “Journalists can’t win the fight against fake news without citizens’ help.” (The Hill)

The following is an edited version of an essay I’ve published previously.

***

Forty-some years ago, when we were writing our textbook, Raising Hell: How the Center for Investigative Reporting Gets the Story, my colleague Dan Noyes and I described what we called our the hypothesis-driven method of journalism.

It's a tricky business, this hypothesis methodology. You've got to have some basic evidence that indicates some sort of pattern plus a suspicion, an instinct, a guess about what you'll find as you keep searching.

But a hypothesis is not the same as a conspiracy theory, and you don’t publish your hypothesis. You use it, just like a scientist would, to investigate where the truth lies. We understand that this may frustrate true believers who wish reporters would just substantiate their theories. 

An example historically is the JFK assassination on November 22, 1963. Perhaps no other event inspired more complex yet largely unfounded theories.

How could something like this have happened without a conspiracy? As years passed, even though no credible evidence emerged to substantiate any of the wilder theories, certain individuals continued to stoke the conspiracy fires and keep them burning.

Oliver Stone exploited this more skillfully than most, imagining how the conspiracy might have unfolded in his movie, “JFK”, which has shaped subsequent generations' views about the event. That he patched in real footage, including the Zapruder footage that is the only known visual evidence of the shooting, made his docudrama feel more realistic than it actually was.

As a result, if you ask people, say, in their 50s or younger today about the assassination, they probably believe we all witnessed it on television as it happened. But that is incorrect: Nobody saw it on TV., because there was no live coverage of Kennedy riding in his motorcade at all. In fact we never saw any video evidence until a full decade later, when the Zapruder film of Kennedy's head exploding was finally declassified and released to the public.

All of this only complicated the effort of journalists like me who actually tried to investigate the assassination. Maintaining our commitment to strictly stick to the facts is not as sexy as publishing fantasies based on conjecture. But all we can do is stay alert and adjust our hypothesis in light of any new evidence as it emerges. We can't afford to get wedded to any one hypothesis until and unless the preponderance of evidence becomes obvious.

Otherwise all you end up with are conspiracy theories.

To this day, whether someone else in addition to Lee Harvey Oswald was behind the Kennedy murder remains unproven. And that is the truth.

HEADLINES:

• Trump is escalating threats against his political opponents. Some of his recent remarks have no precedent in an American presidential campaign. (NYT)

• Trump’s erratic endgame: Threats, personal insults and some dancing (WP)

• Fact check: Trump makes at least 19 false claims in one-hour Fox town hall with women (CNN)

• 'Only choice I got' - Early voting starts in swing state Georgia (BBC)

• Kamala Harris spars with Fox News anchor in testy interview (CNN)

• Georgia judge blocks requirement that counties hand-count ballots (WP)

• Why Trump’s on-stage interview on economic policy was such a mess (MSNBC)

• How Trump tariffs would shock U.S., world economies (WP)

• Hurricane center keeps eyeing 2 Atlantic systems. Will one become Nadine? (USA Today)

• Italy passes anti-surrogacy law that effectively bars gay couples from becoming parents (WP)

• FEMA workers threatened by armed group in Tennessee (The Hill)

• China won't renounce use of force over Taiwan; Xi visits frontline island (Reuters)

• For Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, the old ways have changed and violence rages (AP)

• An Israeli air strike on the municipal building in Nabatieh, a major town in southern Lebanon, killed at least six people including the mayor, two sources said. (Reuters)

• Journalists can’t win the fight against fake news without citizens’ help (The Hill)

• Meta’s Open AI hardware vision (Meta)

• Intro to AI: a beginner’s guide to artificial intelligence (MIT Technology Review) 

• His daughter was murdered. Then she reappeared as an AI chatbot. (WP)

• Poll Finds Americans Hate Being Trapped In Mazes (The Onion)

 

Coming Full Circle

Early voting opened in Georgia Tuesday to long lines and record numbers. This may bode well for participation levels in this year’s critical election. As discussed yesterday, the polls indicate the race is so tight in battleground states like Georgia that a large turnout for either side could prove decisive.

As the only boy growing up in a family with three sisters, I always had my own room. It must have been pretty empty at first but it filled up over the years. 

When I left home for college, my parents gave away or threw away most of my stuff and boxed up the rest. During four years in Ann Arbor, I acquired some new books and records and copies of my earliest newspaper articles.

Then I left for the Peace Corps in Afghanistan. Again my college stuff was boxed up and ended up back with my parents.

Almost everything I acquired during two years overseas stayed there when I returned to the states; I gave it to people in the village where we lived.

The few objects from Afghanistan that came back with me were lost when my Chevy van was burglarized one night. But a bunch of letters I wrote the folks back home were preserved by my sisters.

Once back in the U.S., I moved cross-country to San Francisco. I brought my old boxes along for the ride. Then time slowed down. In my 20s and 30s I acquired much more stuff.

Time passed. I left almost all of that stuff behind when I got divorced in my 40s. But those old boxes stuck with me.

Time slowed down again, and I acquired more stuff in my second marriage during the rest of my 40s and 50s.

Time passed. I left almost all of that stuff behind when my second divorce happened, though those old boxes again stuck with me. 

Then, for the rest of my 50s and 60s and into my early 70s I acquired yet more stuff to fill up the flat where I lived for 17 years in the Mission.

Then, when I got very ill, had to retire and vacate that flat in 2020, virtually all of my possessions were placed at the curb, donated or recycled. Pretty much the only things left were — you guessed it — those old boxes.

Along the way over all those years I purchased thousands of items including 8 or 9 cars, 6 houses, a boat, bikes, some tents, one basketball backboard, a hammock, a BBQ grill, a picnic table, several file cabinets, many computers, cameras, sound systems, TVs, coffee makers, three-piece suits, fancy ties and so on, but not one of those possessions have stuck to me over the long term.

Now it’s pretty much down to just my boxes and me. We share a room. When every other distraction deserts me, I rummage through them. They contain my writings — published and unpublished — as well as letters, pictures, cards, reports, art, some old coins, stamps, baseball cards, rings, bottles and a few other random knick-knacks.

Plus a whole lifetime of memories, many of them bittersweet reminders of how much one gains and loses during a long life. Material possessions are the least of it, of course.

So I came into the world with a clean slate and it looks like I’ll be going out in damn near the same fashion. Then again, come to think of it, there are those roughly 5 million published words I’ll be leaving behind.

No doubt one of my last thoughts will be: “Should I place that comma here, there, or…”

HEADLINES:

• Local board members in Georgia can't refuse to certify election results, judge rules (NPR)

• Record number of early votes cast in Georgia as election gets underway in battleground state (CNN)

• Trump Brags About His Math Skills and Economic Plans. Experts Say Both Are Shaky. (NYT)

• Trump’s economic plans would worsen inflation, experts say (AP)

• Harris defends ‘scripted’ style and agrees Trump is ‘about fascism’ in wide-ranging interview with Charlamagne tha God (CNN)

• Harris campaign turns Trump's favorite weapon against him (Axios)

• Kamala Harris dips in key states, making US election contest a toss-up (The Conversation)

• The Evangelicals Calling for ‘Spiritual Warfare’ to Elect Trump (WSJ)

• Anne Hathaway shares presidential endorsement choice of Harris weeks before 2024 election (Independent)

• Trump's bizarre music session reignites questions about his mental acuity (NBC)

• AP VoteCast: How Americans voted in 2020, and what it could mean for 2024 (AP)

• Meteorologists Face Harassment and Death Threats Amid Hurricane Disinformation (NYT)

• Israeli strikes kill 40 Palestinians in Gaza (Reuters)

• US suggests military aid to Israel is at risk in letter demanding more aid for Gaza (CNN)

• Israeli soldiers and Palestinian former detainees say Israeli troops have regularly forced captured Gazans to carry out life-threatening tasks, including inside Hamas tunnels. (NYT)

• Dogs Are Entering a New Wave of Domestication (Atlantic)

• ‘Stunning’ hidden tomb found at Petra site featured in ‘Indiana Jones’ (WP)

• NYT sends AI startup Perplexity 'cease and desist' notice over content use (Reuters)

• The OpenAI Talent Exodus Gives Rivals an Opening (Wired)

• Mayor Explains Why He Changed The Name Of His City To Salami Town (The Onion)

Turning Out

With three weeks left until the election, it’s become increasingly obvious that turnout will probably determine the outcome. In 2020, 66 percent or roughly two-thirds of those eligible actually voted, and unless something unexpected happens, we can anticipate a similar level of participation this time.

The unknowns that could affect turnout include the weather, voter intimidation, violence, illness, and renewed efforts in some states to suppress turnout. These play a role in the “margin of error” in all polls — nobody can with precise accuracy predict what the turnout will be.

And when it comes to polls, they are as unreliable as bobbers bouncing around in the waves on a windy day. They were memorably wrong in 2016, when pollsters badly underestimated the number of first-time voters who turned out for Trump; and in 2022, when pollsters predicting a “red wave” in the midterm elections badly underestimated the effect of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in helping Democrats outperform Republicans across the country.

By making abortion rights a keystone of the Harris campaign, Democrats are betting that this time a 2022-type surge will overwhelm a 2016-type surge. But it’s also likely that both of those factors are already baked into the electorate, as enough time has passed that both have been assimilated into voter decisions to a great extent.

Republican fears of a repeat of 2022 explain why Trump has publicly equivocated on his position on abortion, whereas Project 2025 makes it clear that he will push for a nationwide ban if elected. That Trump is an unfettered liar is something only half of the electorate cares about.

Meanwhile, as the election approaches, it is worth pondering how far our system has strayed from a direct democracy of one person, one vote. The U.S. is the only country using the outdated concept of an Electoral College to select its President. This year, as the Mercury-News reported, “Texas has one electoral vote for every 762,583 residents; Florida has one for every 753,691 residents; and California has one for every 721,578 residents.

“At the other end of the spectrum, Washington D.C. has one electoral vote for every 223,934 residents; Vermont has one for every 215,821 residents; and Wyoming has one for every 194,686 residents.”

HEADLINES:

• Trump's protests aside, his agenda has plenty of overlap with Project 2025 (AP)

• Harris warns ‘unhinged’ Trump is out for total power (CNN)

• North Korea blows up roads near South Korean border as tensions soar (Al Jazeera)

• Hurricane recovery disrupted by threats to relief workers (BBC)

• North Carolina authorities arrest armed man after threats against FEMA workers (WP)

• Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Up 2 Points In Latest Survey As Race Is Nearly Tied (Forbes)

• Harris losing ground to Trump in US presidential election, polls suggest (Al Jazeera)

• CBS News Trump-Harris poll shows one election, two worlds: How information, beliefs shape tight campaign (CBS)

• Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Trump Plunge in Nate Silver Forecast (Newsweek)

• How Trump may try to challenge the election results if he loses again (WP)

• The Ground Game: Harris’s Turnout Machine vs. Trump’s Unproven Alliance (NYT)

• Is the Constitution threatening democracy? UC Berkley law dean argues it is (SJMN)

• Hezbollah drone attack on army base kills 4 Israeli soldiers and injures dozens (CNN)

• Deadly Israeli strike sets tents ablaze on grounds of Gaza’s al-Aqsa hospital (WP)

• The US will send an anti-missile system and troops to Israel. (Reuters)

• The US is sending a missile defense system and troops to Israel to aid defense against Iran (AP)

• The Real Story Behind ‘Saturday Night,’ the Movie About the Television Show That Changed Comedy Forever (Smithsonian)

• ‘Where we are today in biology AI is similar to GPT in 2020’: An interview with the CEO of Africa’s biggest AI startup (TechCrunch)

• Google's new antitrust defense is AI (Yahoo)

• Columbus Day Protests Once Again Erupt As Nation Struggles With Its Dark, Anti-Italian Past (The Onion)

 

Language in Code

(Going back over my old work, I sometimes find pieces that I simply cannot believe I actually wrote. This is one of them, from 2006. At the time, I was working inside a low-profile tech startup founded and led by a billionaire.)

I know that most people who read this do not work in Silicon Valley, where I do. As a writer, and a teacher of writing, I am acutely aware of how off-putting insider lingo can be. Here's off the top of my head, a sample of how we talk day to day:

Scope creep
Iteration
Monetize
Page config
Style Sheets
RSS
Navigation
Interactivity
Connectivity
Load
Dev
Scrum
Server
Architecture
Surfacing
Categorization
Bandwidth
Granularity
Sprint
Epic
UI
Interface
Program
Content
Noise
Signal
Back office
Front office
Release
Keystroke
Usability
Click tracks
QA
Pipe
Colo
Toolbar
User-generated
Pixels
Optimize
Tables
Link
Post
ITS
Chip
Memory
Functionality
Feature Set
Html
File sharing
Mouse over
Flouts
Scroll down
CPC
IP
Xml
Resin
NetApp
DNS
API
Objects
Template
A build
Recency

If you have any questions, just ask. But please do not expect that I can actually answer them. Because I am a student in the Valley, not a teacher. There is a lot of meaning imbedded in this dialect, but it reveals itself only slowly, like the skins peeling off an onion.

The end result, when we get it right, is a product that you may depend on.. Few others here will say this, but the march of technology that engulfs us scares even those of us creating it. We don't know where it is headed All we can hope is that it will result in a better world, not the opposite.

HEADLINES:

• Biden announces in Tampa more than $600 million for Milton recovery (CBS)

• What we know about Vem Miller, charged with gun possession near Trump rally (USA Today)

• China ends war games around Taiwan, but leaves door open to more (Reuters)

• Experts warn ‘crazy busy’ Atlantic hurricane season is far from over (AP)

• Voters’ feelings about the 2024 campaign and election outcomes; concerns about political violence (Pew)

• Kamala Harris’s Hundred-Day Campaign (New Yorker)

• Kamala Harris says this lesson from her mom shaped her career—why parenting experts say it’s essential for success (CNBC)

• Honorable public servants of both parties upheld democracy after the 2020 election. America is counting on them again to do their duty. (NYT)

• UN says Israeli tanks ‘forcibly entered’ base of its peacekeeping force in Lebanon (Independent)

• Captured documents reveal Hamas’s broader ambition to wreak havoc on Israel (WP)

• 'Dead heat': Trump pulls even with Harris in NBC News poll (NBC)

• Canada has long had one of the world’s most open immigration policies. Now, faced with a growing popular backlash, it’s changing the rules. (NYT)

• The trouble with Elon Musk’s robotaxi dream (Economist)

• Apple Has a New Smart Home Strategy: Screens Everywhere (Bloomberg)

• Can We Please Just Find the Aliens Already? (NYT)

• Meta’s Yann LeCun says worries about A.I.’s existential threat are ‘complete B.S.’ (TechCrunch)

• This threat hunter chases U.S. foes exploiting AI to sway the election (WP)

• Nation’s Indigenous People Confirm They Don’t Need Special Holiday, Just Large Swaths Of Land Returned Immediately (The Onion)

 

Never Again (On the Other Hand)

(This pathetic little essay, written 18 years ago in 2006, is personally embarrassing, but I was nursing a broken heart at the time. Be sure to read the postscript.)

Tonight, I've started accepting the likelihood that I will spend the rest of my life alone, not as half of a couple. This is a thought that not so long ago would have struck terror in my heart. But, tonight, I am feeling a bit differently about this prospect. As much as I love women, and enjoy being in intimate relationship with them, I'm also mindful of how much pain these relationships eventually can produce for everyone involved.

I really don't want to go through that much pain ever again. Plus, although most people who know me well would say I am flexible and accommodating to the women in my life, I've come to realize that is not necessarily a healthy way for me to live. It may be a positive attribute, but I also feel like being much more selfish these days.

That means I want to do things the way I want to do them. I'll bend and I'll adapt, but I also need to preserve my own way of doing things -- much like the way I write. I don't really care when people criticize me; it's amusing more than anything else. After all, nobody has to read this blog. As far as I know, it has not been assigned as compulsory reading by any professors anywhere.

So, tonight, watching baseball on TV, caressing a large stack of good books, preparing to cook up some fresh veggies and sausage for my dinner, I'm not missing anybody. Great partners all; and I'll always love all of them. But there are many fish in the sea. (Thanks, Dad.) And I am not at all sure I am ready to let someone new into my life.

Does that make sense? I've led a life of twists and turns. My days of going after someone “like a fine tooth comb” are over. If she wants to be with me, she will adapt to me as much as I will to her.

Otherwise, I can take her or leave her. It really makes no difference to me.

(Postscript: Soon after publishing this piece, I embarked in a new relationship. She said she was attracted to the way I write.)

HEADLINES: 

• The New Apostolic Reformation is an elusive, hard-to-pin-down movement whose followers believe that Christians are called to control the government and that former President Donald Trump was chosen by God. (Reveal)

• Harris and Trump take divergent paths in a tied race (WP)

• Gov. Slams Donald Trump’s ‘Cognitive Decline’ After Rally Insults (Daily Beast)

• Harris has slight lead in Pennsylvania while Trump keeps Arizona advantage, polls show (Politico)

• Trump calls for death penalty for migrants who kill Americans (Reuters)

• Trump amplifies falsehoods about immigrants in closing appeal (WP)

• Trump Has Clear Edge on Handling Israel, Ukraine Wars, WSJ Poll Shows (WSJ)

• Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)

• Even in Her Memoir, Melania Trump Remains a Mystery (New Yorker)

• The Moment of Truth (Atlantic)

• Trump is ‘fascist to the core,’ retired Gen. Milley says in Woodward book (WP)

• Inside Donald Trump’s Shadow Presidency (NYT)

• Israel orders evacuation of more southern Lebanese towns (Reuters)

• Captured documents reveal Hamas’s broader ambition to wreak havoc on Israel (WP)

• Israel fires at U.N. position in Lebanon (Reuters)

• Young men are increasingly more religious. Young women are leaving the church in droves. Their motivations might not be so different. (Slate)

• Woman attempted to kayak to Canada with bag full of protected turtles (WP)

• Could life exist on one of Jupiter’s moons? (Economist)

• Amazon Studios Boss Jennifer Salke Teases ‘The Idea of You’ Sequel (Variety)

• When AI looked at biology, the result was astounding (WP)

• The week that artificial intelligence swept the Nobel Prizes (Financial Times)

• Nevada Asked A.I. Which Students Need Help. The Answer Caused an Outcry. (NYT)

• Taco Bell Announces It’s Plumb Out Of Ideas For New Places To Put Beef (The Onion)

  LYRICS:

  “Islands in the Stream”

  Songwriters: Maurice Ernest Gibb / Robin Hugh Gibb / Barry Alan Gibb

  Baby, when I met you there was peace unknown
  I set out to get you with a fine tooth comb
  I was soft inside, there was somethin' going on

  You do something to me that I can't explain
  Hold me closer and I feel no pain
  Every beat of my heart
  We got somethin' goin' on

  Tender love is blind
  It requires a dedication
  All this love we feel
  Needs no conversation
  We ride it together, ah-ah
  Makin' love with each other, ah-ah

  Islands in the stream
  That is what we are
  No one in-between
  How can we be wrong?
  Sail away with me to another world
  And we rely on each other, ah-ah
  From one lover to another, ah-ah

  I can't live without you if the love was gone
  Everything is nothin' if you've got no one
  And you did walk in tonight
  Slowly losing sight of the real thing

  But that won't happen to us, and we got no doubt
  Too deep in love and we got no way out
  And the message is clear
  This could be the year for the real thing

  No more will you cry
  Baby, I will hurt you never
  We start and end as one, in love forever
  We can ride it together, ah-ah
  Makin' love with each other, ah-ah

  Islands in the stream
  That is what we are
  No one in-between
  How can we be wrong?
  Sail away with me to another world
  And we rely on each other, ah-ah
  From one lover to another, ah-ah

  Sail away
  Oh, come sail away with me

 

A Happy Woman or an Unhappy Man?

“Did I not warn you? People hate a happy woman.” — “The Idea of You”

***

Something that has puzzled me this election season is the criticism of Kamala Harris’s giggle, and how it seemingly turns some people off more than Donald Trump’s hideous scowl. Why is this?

Recently, I may have found the answer to that question in, of all places, a sweet little film called “The Idea of You,” in which a 40ish divorced mother named Solène (Anne Hathaway) falls in love with a much younger pop singer named Hayes (Nicholas Galitzine).

Like most good Hollywood romances, the storyline of the movie is certainly improbable. The two meet by accident backstage before a concert and their mutual attraction is immediately obvious to both of them and to us.

When Hayes pursues her with a boyishly awkward seduction attempt, against her better instincts Solène allows herself to be drawn into this impossible affair, which leads to an erotic rendezvous in New York followed by an extended magical mystery tour with Hayes’ band in Europe. The couple believe their relationship will stay secret, but in several reckless moments at a beach and in a cafe they are surreptitiously photographed, and those photographs will soon surface on the Internet.

All hell breaks loose when they do, ultimately dooming any small chance their relationship ever had in the first place and they sadly must part ways. 

“If the roles were reversed, do you think anyone else would give a shit?” Hayes asks, quasi-rhetorically at one point in the film. Solène later utters the key line in what was reportedly an improv that Hathaway came up with on set: “I didn’t know my being happy would piss so many people off.” 

And that in a nutshell may be part of the dilemma facing Kamala Harris and her team — how to let her show off her natural self, which includes the giggle and lots of smiles, without triggering what is quite clearly a deep-set impulse among members of the public to mistrust female joy.

One of the most useful things I have learned over a long lifetime of trying to overcome my own internalized biases, such as sexism, racism or homophobia, is that we first have to become conscious we have them, then strive purposely to move forward leaving them behind.

That is one of the major challenges now facing those Americans resistant to electing our first female president. The contrast between Harris and her opponent couldn’t be greater on many, many levels, but the contrasting emotions they elicit — of joy/hope/positivity vs. hate/fear/anger — is contributing to a gender gap among voters.

And that gap appears to be reaching historic proportions this election cycle.

Of course, when it comes to this type of political drama, we’ve all seen the movie before, in 2016, when Hillary Clinton played the lead role against the same bad guy. That movie had an unhappy ending, so can this one turn out differently?

Well, sometimes in life, as in movies, when enough time has passed and we are lucky, we get another chance at happiness or love or to just to do the right damn thing, like vote into office our first woman president.

And as to what happens at the conclusion of “The Idea of You,” you’ll just have to watch the movie.

.

HEADLINES: 

• Trump rallies in Aurora — a city he has demonized as overrun by migrant crime (NPR)

• Harris campaign spotlights Trump's jab at Detroit in new ad (Detroit News)

• A quick guide to swing state Pennsylvania (BBC)

• In appeal to Latino voters, Harris warns of the danger of Trump’s dictator vow (WP)

• Kamala Harris Surges Ahead of Donald Trump in New National Poll (Newsweek)

• Republicans Appear Poised to Take Control of Senate, New Poll Shows (NYT)

• The Trumpification of American policy (Economist)

• Back-to-back hurricanes reshape the final stretch of the Presidential election campaign (AP)

• Social media platform TikTok is laying off hundreds of employeesfrom its global workforce, including a large number of staff in Malaysia, as it shifts focus towards a greater use of artificial intelligence in content moderation. (Reuters)

• Voters Expect Trump to Deny Defeat — and Many Don’t Mind (New York)

• Is Donald Trump the greatest grifter of them all? Melania is giving him a run for his money (Guardian)

• Harris viewed more positively by Hispanic women than by Hispanic men: AP-NORC poll (AP)

• Eight years ago, Trump vowed to ‘drain the swamp.’ Now he swims in it. (WP)

• The Supreme Court Has Grown Too Powerful. Congress Must Intervene. (NYT)

• Hezbollah is preparing for a long war of attrition in south Lebanon, after Israel wiped out its top leadership, with a new military command directing rocket fire and the ground conflict, two sources familiar with its operations said. (Reuters)

• War Comes to Beirut (New Yorker)

• Elon Musk’s Beer-Pouring Optimus Robots Are Not Autonomous (Gizmodo)

• Robot Vacuums Hacked to Shout Slurs at Their Owners (Vice)

• Silicon Valley is debating if AI weapons should be allowed to decide to kill (TechCrunch)

• Conspiracy Theorists Claim Hurricanes Man-Made (The Onion)

 

The (Most Likely) Scenario

Those of us keeping a close watch on the polls are seeing what was hardly imaginable a week ago: The race for president is getting even tighter.

Last week, I had calculated that the winning margin in the battleground states would come down to 0.0023 of the national electorate. According to my latest math, that sliver has been cut by a third to 0.0016 of the national electorate. It’s so close that if somebody in the Midwest should sneeze or somebody else in the Sunbelt blinks, the whole thing could pivot one way or the other in a flash.

Over the past week, the numbers have all shifted slightly in Trump’s favor. He has cut into Harris’s lead in the Blue Wall states and widened his lead in the Sunbelt. The leads for either candidate have become microscopic — under 1 point in six of the seven. Arizona is the lone exception (Trump is up 1.5 points there). 

So not only are they all within the margin of error, they are within the margin of believability. What is going on here?

Anyway, based on the latest poll averages from 538 as of 7 a.m. PT this morning, it now looks like the vote margins in the seven battlegrounds will now be as follows:

Arizona Trump +52,860

Georgia Trump +41,600

Michigan Harris +51,849

Nevada Harris +11,688

N. Carolina Trump +51,714

Pennsylvania Harris +43,290

Wisconsin. Harris +20,580

As close as these races may be, one thing has not changed — Harris still is in line to win the Electoral College, 277-261.

But here’s the deal. We are extremely unlikely to know which side won on November 5th or for days afterward, as the ballots continue to be counted. Even then, due to such close popular vote margins, the loser is certain to challenge the results of the closest state races in court, further delaying and confusing matters.

Therefore, this election, like that in 2000, could end up with the Supreme Court, which if it acted in what was perceived as a partisan manner, would effectively end our democracy as we’ve known it for the past 250 years.

There are 25 days until the election. Mail-in voting is underway. Depending on turnout, the weather, current events, and factors that cannot be anticipated, final results could still vary significantly from my projections.

(Note on methodology: I took the vote totals in each state in 2020, increased them by four percent to account for population growth and then used 538’s latest poll averages as of this morning to calculate the number of likely vote totals and margins in each state.)

HEADLINES:

• Exclusive: Harris overtakes Trump among suburban voters, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows (Reuters)

• Battle for Swing States Is Tied, Trump Has Edge on Top Issues, WSJ Poll Shows (WSJ)

• What do polls tell us about race for Pennsylvania? (BBC)

• Inside the Battle for America’s Most Consequential Battleground State (NYT)

• Behind the Curtain: Dems' Blue Wall blues (Axios)

• Harris faces urgency to more forcefully signal a break from Biden. Aides say Harris is deeply loyal to Biden and resistant to publicly doing anything that could be construed as criticizing his presidency, though his favorability ratings remain underwater. Harris’ team has tried to keep Biden at a distance on the campaign trail, yet she has been pulled into appearing by his side to address emergencies. (AP)

• Ohio voters dismiss false claims about Haitians, but Trump has slight lead, Post poll finds (WP)

• Former President Donald Trump boasted about his crowd size during his rally in Reading, Pennsylvania. "We never have an empty seat, never have, look at it," he said. The only problem? There were plenty of empty seats toward the back of the venue. [HuffPost]

• Hurricane Milton leaves at least 16 dead in Florida as millions left without power in storm’s aftermath (Independent)

• Hurricane shocked state with deadly tornadoes well ahead of landfall (WP)

• At least 9 deaths confirmed following monster storm slamming into Florida (NBC)

• Taylor Swift Donates $5 Million to Hurricane Helene and Milton Relief Efforts (Rolling Stone)

• What we couldn't prepare for with Hurricane Milton (Axios)

• Florida threatens to criminally charge TV stations airing abortion rights ad (WP)

• US inflation reaches lowest point in 3 years, though some price pressures remain (AP)

• U.N. says Israeli forces battling Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon fire on UNIFIL peacekeepers, wounding two (CBS)

• Iranian Official Heads to Saudi Arabia as Israel Postpones U.S. Meeting (NYT)

• These maps and images show what's left of Gaza, 1 year into the Israel-Hamas war (NPR)

• Earth’s wildlife populations have disappeared at a ‘catastrophic’ rate in the past half-century, new analysis says(WP)

• Google's Nobel prize winners stir debate over AI research (Reuters)

• Someone claims to have used AI to apply to 2,843 jobs (TechCrunch)

• How to Say No to Our A.I. Overlords (NYT)

• Ambulance Driver Pretty Embarrassed She Did All That Just To Go Three Blocks (The Onion)