Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Silver Tongue

Nate Silver is one of the most prominent election forecasters in America, but he stresses that he is not a pollster. If you want to try and guess what the results of next Tuesday’s midterm elections are going to be, read or listen to his conversation with Ezra Klein of the New York Times.

I’m hesitant to summarize it because the nuance is where all the rough edges get smoothed. But here goes:

  • Democrats should flip enough seats in the Senate to take control of that body along with the House.

  • One of the biggest factors is that midterms are always a judgement about the incumbent President, even though he is not on the ballot, and Trump has low approval ratings.

  • Trump’s rural, white voter base may not turn out in the numbers Republicans need to ward off a Democratic victory.

  • While the major Democratic candidates for key Senate races are not perfect, the Republican candidates are bad.

  • The polls could still be wrong and the results could surprise us.

  • A lot of the anxiety over affordability, jobs and the future revolves around AI.

  • AI may well be the major issue in 2028. And the next President will not be an old man.

There’s much more, so give the article or podcast a look. My conclusions from this and all the other sources I monitor is that Democrats are poised for a big win but not a mandate. What they do with their new power will probably be pivotal in the 2028 presidential election.

HEADLINES:

  • How Trump and his allies are sowing doubt ahead of the midterms (WP)

  • Nate Silver on What the Polls Say — and What His Gut’s Telling Him (NYT)

  • Israeli exit polls indicate deadlock in pivotal election as Netanyahu faces main rival Eisenkot (Reuters)

  • With over 85% of votes counted, pro-Netanyahu bloc gets 53 seats, Eisenkot-led bloc at 48 and Arab parties have 19. (Times of Israel)

  • At Least 64 Killed in Train Crash in Spain, Officials Say (NYT)

  • Romanian president calls alleged Russian sabotage plot a 'grave violation' of NATO member's security (AP)

  • Flávio Bolsonaro flees Brazil after presidential election loss, reports say (Guardian)

  • The U.S. Called It Putin’s ‘Slush Fund.’ Now Trump May Drop Sanctions on It. (NYT)

  • Pretti family accuses federal government of ‘shielding Alex’s killers’ (MS-T)

  • Hackers target US FEC system, disrupting campaign finance disclosures days before midterms (Reuters)

  • Grand Jury Declines to Bring Charges Against Cassidy Hutchinson (NYT)

  • The Art of the Deal: Jared Kushner’s Hacked Phone Revealed His Secret Negotiations—Including More Than $700 Million in Transfers (Vanity Fair)

  • Trump to Loosen Rules for Oil Firms on Methane, a Potent Warming Gas (NYT)

  • How Long Until the Internet Breaks? (Atlantic)

  • At 80, he’s a top dementia expert. Here’s how he keeps his brain healthy. (WP)

  • While global tech stocks teeter, China’s have already crashed as lofty valuations collapse under worries about AI demand and curbs on Chinese exports. (Reuters)

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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

What the Gamblers Say

One week before Election Day, roughly a third of the likely voters have already cast their ballots. The gamblers at Kalshi continue to give Democrats a 64 percent chance of winning control of the Senate.

In three key races, they believe Democrats will prevail -- Talarico will beat Paxton in Texas (65-35); Jackson will beat Collins in Maine (60-40); and El-Sayed will beat Rogers in Michigan (68-32). These are the odds, not the expected margin of victory.

The polls indicate very close races nearly within the margin of error.

I don’t think anyone believes the Republicans can hold on to the House; Hakeem Jeffries will be the next Speaker.

Just 29 percent think now Trump will declare some sort of election emergency if Democrats win control of Congress. The good news is that 71 percent think he won’t.

This one time let’s hope the gamblers are right on all counts.

HEADLINES:

  • Appeals Court Declines to Intervene in California Ballot Lawsuit. By a 2-1 vote, a federal appeals court panel denied the Trump administration’s request that it immediately order the state to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots. (NYT)

  • U.K. charges 2 men arrested over alleged Iran-linked terror plot against RAF Fairford air base used by U.S. (CBS)

  • Bolsonaro’s party accepts Brazil election after Trump calls vote ‘rigged’ (Al Jazeera)

  • Trump DOJ unlawfully fired Epstein prosecutor Maurene Comey, judge rules (CNBC)

  • Justice Dept. Brings More Charges Against James Comey, Accusing Him of Leaks (NYT)

  • The anti-Bibi candidate who has Netanyahu on his heels (Axios)

  • Netanyahu Pushed for Attack on Iran Ahead of Israeli Election, Officials Say (NYT)

  • America’s Least Bad Option in Iran (Foreign Policy)

  • Celebrations in Serbia after veteran ruler Vučić loses election to student-led protest movement (BBC)

  • Did Substack Fix the Internet? (New Yorker)

  • U.S. Allies Race to Escape SpaceX’s Orbit (WSJ)

  • French student protesters say government offered them deal, but they want more (Reuters)

  • Drone warfare could save NATO (The Hill)

  • White House is sued again over media bans as press groups seek wider injunction (WP)

  • Vivek Ramaswamy’s Ohio gov bid in chaos as allies and venues drop him over Acton attack ad (Independent)

  • Troubled By Trump’s Immigrant Round-Ups, Will Hispanic Evangelicals, Vote Republican, Democrat or Stay Home? (SmirkingChimp)

  • The sleeper issue that could decide the U.S. Senate race in Texas (WP)

  • The time has come for ‘Medicare for All’ (Money Trail)

  • Berkeley Considers Starting a Public Bank With Taxpayer Dollars (NYT)

  • A former beauty pageant contestant who has said she rebuffed a sexual advance from Trump in 1993 now says Trump raped her during the encounter, according to a report from the House Democrats who will take the lead on any potential impeachment of Trump next year. [HuffPost]

  • A wild winter is brewing. Here’s what meteorologists want you to know. (WP)

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Monday, October 26, 2026

The Frontlines

The New Yorker has published what is both a disturbing yet also encouraging report about the threats election officials around the country are facing from Trump’s followers: “…persistent lies about voter fraud, a centerpiece of Trump’s political narrative, have set loose torrents of hostility toward the men and women who oversee balloting nationwide.”

  • In Utah, the lieutenant governor, a Republican, lives under constant threats to her life since standing up to Trump by opposing his attempts to overturn the 2020 election.

  • In a national survey of local election officials this year, a third of them reported that they had personally been subjected to threats, harassment, or abuse because of their work. Half said they feared for the safety of their colleagues.

  • This year, multiple federal agencies, following Trump’s directives, attempted to strong-arm state election officials long before the first votes were cast.

  • In a string of nearly identical lawsuits, filed beginning in September, 2025, (Trump’s Justice Department) accused chief election officers in thirty states and the District of Columbia of violating Title III of the Civil Rights Act by failing to hand over electronic copies of their unredacted voter-registration lists. All but one state fought the lawsuits, including seven that had Republican chief election officers.

  • Since the litigation began, twenty-seven U.S. district judges and one appellate panel have reached decisions. All of them ruled against the Trump Administration. The Trump Administration’s efforts to cull the electorate before the midterms have, by and large, failed. Courts stripped the President’s executive orders of meaningful impact.

  • If one thing has been decisive in safeguarding the nation’s electoral machinery, it is the tenacity of state officials who willingly accepted the political, financial, and personal risks of defying the President. They did so in a strong majority of states, including some under Republican control.

There is much more in this excellent article, which is worth reading in anticipation of what’s to come during this year’s midterm elections, State election officials form the frontline in defending democracy from the man who would be king.

HEADLINES:

AI NEWS:

  • Google’s AI search changes upended online publishing (Verge)

  • An inside look of the massive data center tearing a Wisconsin community apart (NPR)

  • Grok releases the first seven minutes of its AI-generated ‘Odyssey’ (TechCrunch)

  • To make AI morally good, tech companies are turning to religion. But some say it isn’t that simple (AP)

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Sunday, October 25, 2026

Bad Bedfellows

 Elon Musk says he was behind the slowdown in Starlink service in Ukraine that resulted in Russian missiles killing civilians. As others have noted, it is outrageous that a private citizen has the power to conduct U.S. foreign policy, especially during a war.

But this isn’t unprecedented. Younger readers need only Goggle “William Randolph Hearst and the Spanish-American War of 1898.”

I seriously doubt Musk acted alone. It’s obvious his sudden order to slow down Ukraine’s Starlink connection due to a “violation” was in concert with Trump’s attempts to bring new pressure on Zelenskyy to come to the bargaining table with Putin.

Trump favors Putin and is trying to give him an upper hand in any future ceasefire negotiations. As Trump’s biggest backer, the world’s richest man is also one of the most corrupt.

Bad Bedfellows.

HEADLINES:

  • Sporadic violence flares as hundreds of thousands protest in France (Reuters)

  • More than 400,000 protest across France, challenging Macron as Paris clashes erupt (PBS)

  • Is Iran planning attacks on Americans; why is the US on alert? (Al Jazeera)

  • Iran has “increased efforts to target U.S. personnel,” intel chief warns (CBS)

  • Iran says won’t allow US warships to get close as Trump ponders new attacks (Al Jazeera)

  • Musk says he was behind Starlink speed restriction after service in Ukraine is restored (AP)

  • Inside the US-Starlink relationship (Reuters)

  • How Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russia crippled the world’s second-largest diesel supplier (CNBC)

  • Russian diesel is coming to America (Reuters)

  • Trump’s Words Used Against Him in Alaska Lawsuit, DOJ Sanctions Sought (Newsweek)

  • Obama Issues Searing Attacks on Trump, Ramaswamy in Return to Campaign Trail (NYT)

  • Trump says he ordered suit to block Alaska Senate results if GOP loses (PBS)

  • Why Are We Still Talking About Voting Rights in 2026? (Reveal)

  • Cook Political moves Ohio governor’s race after Ramaswamy attack ad (WP)

  • The EPA Is Quietly Killing its Web Archive (Mother Jones)

  • Jon Ossoff’s films exposed corruption. Then his colleague was murdered. (WP)

  • Records offer a picture of the Oregon school shooter’s tumultuous home life (NBC)

  • Kim Jong-un Makes First Visit to China in Over a Year (NYT)

  • ‘A bow isn’t simply a greeting’: The unspoken rules of Japanese body language (BBC)

  • What is a neutrino anyway? A look at the science behind this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics (Phys.org)

  • A Mother on Trial (New Yorker)

  • Elizabeth Holmes Whistleblower Says Nathan Fielder ‘Chose to Ignore the Truth’ to Make a Better Movie (The Wrap)

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Saturday, October 24, 2026

The First Move

The Justice Department’s lawsuit to block Alaska’s Senate race if the Republican candidate loses is the first open move by the Trump administration to cast doubt on the results of the midterm elections.

While this lawsuit seems unlikely to succeed in court, Trump’s larger goal appears to be to sow chaos, giving him the excuse to declare an election emergency.

This development comes as the scope of the likely Democratic victory becomes clearer. Democrats are leading in most House races and have a narrow lead in Senate races. They also appear to poised to flip a number of Governorships and make gains in state legislatures across the country.

Should those prove to be the results on Election Day, it would amount to a stunning defeat for Trump and Trumpism.

And we all know that the one thing Trump never admits is defeat.

Accordingly, a small group of national security official are advising state leaders what to do should Trump try to discredit the election results. In that context, the Alaskan lawsuit may be only the first move of many by Trump in a desperate attempt to hold onto power.

HEADLINES:

  • Justice Dept. Moves to Block Certification of Alaska Senate Race Results if Republican Loses (NYT)

  • Trump says he told DOJ to sue to block possible Alaska election of Democrat to Senate (Reuters)

  • Alaska’s Senate Race Could Be Decided by Salmon (New Yorker)

  • DOJ gives local California registrars 48 hours to quarantine suspected noncitizen ballots (SFC)

  • As Republicans brace for election losses, Musk prepares for war (WP)

  • Do these Senate-governor splits make sense? (Silver Bulletin)

  • Dolly Parton’s Sister Stella Claims Voting Machine Switched Her Ballot to Republican, Officials Push Back (Yahoo)

  • If Democrats rout Republicans from Congress in November, they’re expected to go hard on the Trump administration. But a formidable opponent looms: the U.S. Justice Department. [HuffPost]

  • Speed restrictions on Musk’s Starlink lifted in Ukraine, defense ministry says (Axios)

  • Starshield slowdown probe sought by Silicon Valley Democrats (Politico)

  • How Starlink slowdown hit Ukraine’s front line soldiers pushing Russia back (NBC)

  • Elon Musk’s Moral Confusion on Ukraine (TNR)

  • Melania Trump helps secure a ceasefire deal in Russian-occupied Oleshky, the White House says (PBS)

  • Thousands march in Paris and other French cities as protests take place across Europe (Guardian)

  • Trump at South Florida rally revives the idea of military intervention in Cuba after Iran (AP)

  • Iran in ‘Advanced Stages’ of Planning Attacks Against Americans, Officials Say (NYT)

  • Netanyahu Calls for West Bank Lockdown After Deadly Attack (WSJ)

  • New electronics reach Iran, but prices soar as gov’t fees, US sanctions hit (Al Jazeera)

  • China Cannot Remain the World’s Factory. What Comes Next? (Time)

  • Almost all of Taiwan shut down ahead of the arrival of Typhoon Champi, which is forecast to bring strong winds and ‌torrential rain, and though the storm is weakening it could still make direct landfall on the island. (Reuters)

  • Why So Many Men Aren’t Working (Atlantic)

  • New ‘Scentronic’ technology can detect and transmit aromas remotely (Reuters)

  • Hegseth Barred Trans Troops. Military Boards Are Rejecting Those Orders. (NYT)

  • Breakthrough vaccine for the deadliest skin cancer cut risk by almost half (WP)

  • EPA has failed to tackle cancer-linked pesticide pollution, lawsuit alleges (Guardian)

  • America’s vaccine system is an operations failure waiting to happen (The Hill)

  • Ex-FBI employees charged with lying to Congress over Hunter Biden inquiries (NPR)

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Friday, October 23, 2026

Story-Telling Now

Mobile devices and streaming are changing the way people find and view stories in these troubled times. Many rely on cellphones to feel connected to the world and to find relevant stories.

Meanwhile, streaming services like Netflix demonstrate that serial story-telling is what brings users back for more.

These two trends crate a dilemma for those of us in the news business. A significant number of people find out about news at Instagram or TikTok. Their loyalty to news brands like the New York Times or CNN is uncertain.

Finding topics that can be serialized can take advantage of the streaming technology that has replaced legacy platforms like television. If that seems irrelevant to the news business, think again.

Virtually all news stories fall into buckets: politics, business, sports, entertainment, culture, weather, etc. At any given point in time, a few of those stories can be packaged as mysteries. Users can then be invited to participate in the story by guessing/predicting how it will turn out.

The potential power of this approach to grow audiences across multiple news cycles is why we now see news brands like CNN partnering with prediction markets like Kalshi.

For those writing the news, this requires ledes and kickers that leave readers hungry for more. The trick is to deliver a satisfying experience while maintaining our traditional journalistic standards of accuracy, timeliness, fairness, balance and objectivity.

The bottom line is that story-telling has to evolve.

HEADLINES:

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Thursday, October 22, 2026

Our 'Big Chill'


(Ann Arbor expats gathered in my apartment in the Fillmore District of San Francisco in the early ‘70s.)


I was born in Detroit two years after the end of World War II. My family moved into one of the city’s expanding suburbs, Royal Oak, amidst a cluster of other families that consisted of returning soldiers, wives and boys and girls named David, Susan, Bill, Bob, Jim, Mark, Bonnie, Nancy, Kathy, Fred, Peter, Carole, Paul, Diane, Mary, John, and so on and so forth.

We were the leading edge of the Baby Boom generation -- a cohort so large that we broke every institution we encountered. When we got to school, there were never enough classrooms, chairs, desks, books, or other resources. Teachers suddenly had to handle many more students at once than had previously been the case.

When we reached our teens, there simply was not enough beat in the music that our parents and older siblings enjoyed. Thus, the mass market for rock and roll was born.

Meanwhile, the political economy of the nation newly victorious in the second war of wars dictated that America become an empire, as all conquerors since time immemorial have done. 

As we grew up, America’s capitalist empire -- imperialistic, arrogant, and driven by opposition to communism -- spread globally.

We were served books like “Our Friend the Atom,” a distinctly propagandistic reader that was our government’s attempt to convince us, years before we could vote, of the rightness of its policy to develop nuclear weapons to protect us from the Russians, Chinese, and other socialistic foreigners.

Much of the rest of my generation’s story is written contemporaneously in music, in poetry, in film, and in our collective memory. Confronted with the worldview that our fate was to conquer the world, many of us rebelled, begging to differ. 

We opposed the war in Vietnam. We marched in support of the civil rights movement. We launched the modern women’s liberation movement and the gay liberation movement. We smoked dope and dropped acid and danced in the streets. We flocked to the nascent environmental movement.

We were idealists and cynics, hippies and radicals. For our guides, we had Dylan and the Beatles, the Stones, and so many more. The music always reflected us as the ragged edges of a churning chainsaw that sliced our way through society trying to establish a new way of being.

Did we succeed in doing that? Probably not. Progress requires struggle and there have been many setbacks. The culture wars rage. It often looks bleak but three-quarters of a century later, many of us are still trying.

(I published the first version of this essay in 2006.)

HEADLINES:

  • Putin tells Witkoff he is ready to resume direct peace talks, Russia releases U.S. detainee (Axios)

  • When Starshield Cut Out, Ukrainian Drones Fell From the Skies (NYT)

  • Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to restrict some medical treatments for transgender inmates (CBS)

  • DOJ’s noncitizen voter list is unreliable (NPR)

  • Trump Approval Hits New Low Two Weeks Before Midterms, Poll Finds (NYT)

  • Fasten Your Seatbelts: Trumpism Is Beginning Its Final Descent (Bulwark)

  • Meta Ordered to Pay $25 Billion for Deceiving Users on Privacy (NYT)

  • Ohio governor’s race in uproar over ad featuring Democrat’s estranged mother (WP)

  • Toledo Residents Ordered to Evacuate After Chemical Explosion (NYT)

  • World must cut emissions by 18% in four years ‘to find our way back’, UN says (Guardian)

  • United Nations report highlights significant increase in U.S. climate pollution (NPR)

  • U.S. and Israel Draw Up Plans for Renewed Strikes on Iran After Elections (NYT)

  • Iran’s enriched uranium re-emerges as point of contention in US talks (Al Jazeera)

  • In San Francisco, a Family Earning $325,000 Qualifies for Government Aid (NYT)

  • The tech helping crack decades-old cold cases (BBC)

  • Trump Pushes to Evict the Press From the White House (NYT)

  • ‘The Diplomat’ Team on the Real World Inspirations for Season 4’s “Authoritarian Behavior” and What’s Next After Dramatic G7 Scene (Hollywood Reporter)

  • Scholars conclude ‘beyond doubt’ that Shakespeare was main author of Edward III (Guardian)

  • ‘I lost all respect’: Warriors rookie blasts Lakers star Luka Doncic after blowout loss (NBC)

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