When the very popular African-American Mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, ran for Governor of California in 1982, the polls indicated that 65% of the voting public supported him. But he lost to a white man.
Ever since that shocking event, pollsters, social scientists, and journalists have been extremely sensitive to the hidden effect of race in the way white Americans behave once they are in the privacy of the voting booth.
There is no concrete evidence that white Americans have moved beyond the “Bradley Effect,” and the best sources I can locate estimate that up to 20 percent of the white electorate still is lying to pollsters about their racist impulses.
And that appears to be the only reason, given the present polls, that Obama could possibly lose the Presidential election to McCain. I’ve been studying all the polls, the trends and the probable electoral map distributions, and I do not see any way McCain can win unless he can exploit the Bradley Effect.
If he does, we as a culture will have to contemplate the meaning of a man whose privilege is entirely based on his inheritance of a slave-holding Mississippi family’s wealth utilizing their advantage against a man who is the son of a white woman from Kansas and a farmer from Kenya.
In other words, Obama has no history on his side, positive or negative, in a race based on race. Therefore, he will probably need the endorsement of a prominent black Republican if he is to prevail.
Enter Gen. Colin Powell. There is an opportunity for this man, who was so badly exploited (much like a slave) by the Bush administration in the WMD-Iraq War fiasco. Will he listen to his inner courage and endorse Sen. Obama?
For the good of all Americans, let's hope he does. Then, the playing field may finally get leveled, and the race for the White House will have a chance to transcend the ugliness of the "Bradley Effect."
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