There are 11 states left up for grabs, and Obama is ahead in six of them. His leads are in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Pennsylvania for a total of 73 electoral votes. He is close to closing the deal in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (31 e-votes).McCain has a slender edge in five states -- Ohio, Nevada, Florida, Missouri, and Indiana -- for a total of 74 e-votes. Only in Missouri (11) is he ahead by more than the margin of error.
My journalist source in Florida has been telling me the race is close there, and I see now that she is right -- under two percentage points. Both candidates are pulling away in all the other 40 states (plus D.C.) Here is the breakdown: Obama has 228 solid e-votes and McCain has 147. Award both candidates the close states they currently lead in and Obama wins the election, 301-237.
Take away the three states where Obama's lead is the smallest and you end up with a tie, 269-269.
In the popular vote, Obama is 4.8 points ahead according to the definitive RCP average. The Democrats are also well positioned to pick up Congressional seats, so that they will hold at least a 55-45 advantage in the Senate. I do not yet have a solid prediction for the House, but suffice it to say, Nancy Pelosi's position as Speaker is not in danger.
This country needs a new direction, a new leader and a newly united government. The Democrats are poised for an historic triumph. The next day, they wake up to the fact that they will have inherited a bankrupt economy, an over-extended military, and the lowest world esteem America has ever experienced.
As exciting as an election may seem, the real work is after it's over. You couldn't pay me enough to be President. Besides, it is not a job for an old man. It's a job that turns you into an old man.
Obama's brilliant speech of March 27th shows clearly that he is the man for the job. With him in charge, the country will be in good hands.
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