Eight years ago, I participated in a guessing game among political junkies about what the final distribution of electoral votes would be that November. As the election neared, the polls indicated such a close race between Al Gore and George W. Bush that the state-by-state searches I did indicated that the unthinkable was possible -- an electoral tie.
This can happen because there is an even number of electoral votes, so depending which way each of the 51 states (including the District of Columbia) break, the 538 votes could be allocated 269-269. As it turns out, that is not what happened in the 2000 election. Al Gore won the popular vote, including, apparently, Florida, but the Republican state government of Florida thwarted all attempts to get the matter resolved.
The Supreme Court then intervened, ceased all recounts, and declared Bush President.
This year, the candidates are again neck and neck in the popular vote, with McCain trending ahead at the moment, but only within the margin of error. Therefore, we face the possibility of another split decision this year, wherein the winner of the popular vote loses the election.
Obama is projected ahead in electoral votes at the moment, but the other day, I went state by state and tried to allocate all the "swing states." The result? 269-269.
Now, should that happen this November, the outcome will not be determined by the popular vote at all, but the election will be thrown over to the House of Representatives. That's the way it works in this electoral system. On this matter I am not a partisan.
If McCain wins the popular vote and ties the electoral vote, Obama will be awarded the Presidency because his party controls the House. To me, that is wrong. I hope none of the nightmare scenarios that currently seem possible come to be. But if one does, I then hope we engage in a true national debate about why we cling to an ancient electoral vote system rather than a direct popular vote system, which would finally mean every person's vote would matter, unlike now.
Living in California, for example, my vote does not matter one whit. The Democrats will win this state, no matter what. Next door, in Nevada, my vote would count for a lot. It's a swing state.
Or, if as is likely, the political class does not have the stomach for election reform, perhaps at least we could agree to drum up an extra electoral vote somewhere in the restlessly growing country, and get the overall total to an odd number, 539. Then, a tie would be less likely, though (with third party candidates some years), still a mathematical possibility.
2 comments:
David,
Our process for electing presidents is interesting, but talk of a close election this week seems a little premature. Unless the DNC can find the silver bullet to derail Palin, this election has all the trappings of a lopsided GOP win.
As is often the case when our election of a president gets heated up, a lot of goofy (and some really ugly) stuff gets floated about both parties' candidates. Since Sarah's appearance on the GOP ticket, goofy has ascended to weirdly malicious. Now WSJ is reporting that some 30 odd lawyers, investigators, and opposition researchers have descended on Anchorage in a quest to find the bullet with Sarah's name on it... This is like a modern day gold rush, except that, unlike the 49ers, this bunch is knee deep in manure looking for a place to bathe. If they don't strike it rich, they're going to carry the smell for a very long time.
The risk for the DNC is pretty big. There's a lot of voters very upset at what they see as a witch hunt and smear campaign against an American mom. A good looking mom... with 5 kids... with a special needs baby... with a good looking, all man husband... with a compelling story as a reformer... with proud middle class parents... with more guts than all of congress combined... with an approval rating in the low 80% range (down from a high of 95%!) in her own state... well, you get my meaning. Even many of those who will end up voting for Obama have a difficult time disliking her. If you take aim at that target and miss, you're likely to get lynched for trying.
Still, what are the alternatives for the DNC? Sarah has altered the playing field so much that it's difficult to see how Obama will compete while she's in the game.
Save finding her Achilles' heel, the giant sucking sound you hear is the parting of the Obama hordes as the delusional few attempt to take Sarah head-on; if I had to guess, I'd say that field will become littered with political corpses – and probably not Sarah's. Time will tell.
With respect, I think you are hyper-inflating the GOP ticket's chances. Palin is an accident waiting to happen. She is so raw and untested the most likely scenario still is she will have to be replaced. Numerous investigations are under way; if she has skeletons they will be found.
Your view of Obama is typical of conservatives. But you all preach to your own choir. I don't know who is going to win or by how much but I'm not making any rash predictions just yet.
Both Obama and McCain have overperformed in some ways. Obama still has a broad lead in electoral votes. When the dust settles, I expect the Democrats will regain the popular vote lead as well.
I'd say give it two weks to begin to see what direction the polls are moving in. Obama is about to announce the largest one-month fund-raising success in American history next week.
That is not an indication of weakness, failure, or ineptitude.
As for your attacks on the press, again typical conser vative playbook nonsense. The press did nothing. They knew about her family problems but did not say anything. She herself broke the story.
She is a demagogue, a liar, a corrupt small time politician. The only good news for the GOP is that V-Ps don't decide elections. It's McCain v Obama.
I like Obama's chaces.
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