McCain got the bigger bounce in the polls after the two parties held their conventions. Obama got a 4.4% bounce, but McCain overcame that and ended up 1-3 points ahead, according to the most reliable tracking polls. Nobody has published an actual number, as far as I can tell, so I am going to estimate that McCain got about an 8-9-point bounce. That can only mean that the Palin choice is behind his surge, which is unprecedented in American politics. But that still leaves the candidates within the margin of error.
There is additional evidence that the McCain-Palin ticket has peaked in the polls. Continuing problems surrounding Palin, including her reversal today, in which she said she will not meet with investigators into "Troopergate," are starting to make her a drag on the ticket. Her failure to be able to answer very basic questions from reporters are having the same effect.
Unfortunately, for McCain, it is too late. He got the momentary bounce, as many Americans felt a resonance with this "small-town gal." But, as her true colors emerge -- as an ignorant, vicious politician who quite clearly abused her power -- Palin is now likely to sink McCain as quickly and as deeply as she boosted him.
Live by the Palin Effect; die by the Palin Effect.
Presidential politics is a funny kind of business. Candidates sometimes reap what they sow, which generally is a good thing.
Meanwhile, I went through a state-by-state analysis of the likely electoral votes again today. If every state breaks to the candidate who appears to be leading, it will still turn out to an electoral tie, 269-269.
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