My summary:
1. GLOBAL RECESSION
The U.S. recession triggered global repercussions, as stock markets crashed in England, Europe, India, China, Japan, and throughout the world. In the wealthier countries, there were a series of high-profile bank failures similar to that in the U.S., and central banks had to intervene repeatedly to prop up the faltering financial structures that reached the verge of collapse. One telling report was when late in the ear, the world’s leading automobile manufacturer, Toyota, reported its first loss in 70 years. Meanwhile, in the poorest regions of the world, the situation was much more critical. The economic downturn sparked food riots, military excursions, mass migrations, runaway inflation, refugee camps, and outbreaks of disease. The word no one yet wanted to speak, but on everyone’s mind was “Depression,” which at year’s end seemed not only possible, but probable during 2009.
2. CHINA’S EMERGENCE
China announced its status as a dominant world power by hosting the Olympics for the first time, orchestrating a spectacular opening ceremony and a successful slate of games despite devastating earthquakes in the months proceeding the event; as well as human rights protests in many countries leading up to the games, the murder of an American athlete’s relative on Opening Night, and a scandal regarding the alleged underage girls on China’s gymnastics team. In the end, China beat out the U.S. for the most Gold Medals, which was its stated goal, yielding a deep sense of national pride. China’s moment proved short-lived, however, when the U.S. recession combined with several scandals involving toxic Chinese exports caused its domestic economy to grind toward a halt. In South China, many export factories closed or limped along with vastly reduced production capacity. The central government’s massive holdings of U.S. debt introduced a new layer of vulnerability and instability to the situation. A building boom of unimaginable proportions in Shanghai started to slow, and angry consumers throughout the country demanded more help from the government. One potentially promising development involved a tentative thaw in relations with Taiwan.
3. IRAQ WAR SURGE & IRAN’S RISE
Gen. David Petraeus led a military strategy in Iraq involving paying Iraqis to drive militants out of the country, which in turn drastically reduced suicide bombings, and other terrorist acts in the country. The Iraqi and U.S. governments concluded a new SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement), which authorizes continued U.S. military presence in the country through 2011. Gradually, the makings of civil society seemed to be reappearing in the war-torn Middle Eastern nation. Meanwhile, next door in Iran, tension escalated as the U.S. and Europe demanded a halt to its nuclear arms production program. A central government that by word and action was extremely hostile to the West continued to taunt an edgy Israel toward military engagement, which if successful, would prove disastrous for the entire region. But a new emphasis on diplomacy by the incoming Obama administration held out hope that hostilities could be negotiated down, and Iran’s state sponsorship of terrorism might finally be reduced.
4. PAKISTAN & AFGHANISTAN DETERIORATE – On the other side of Iran, even as the situation in Iraq improved, Afghanistan and Pakistan devolved into chaos. The aftermath of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto late in 2007 cost Pakistan’s President, Pervez Musharraf, the ensuing election. Taliban and al-Qaeda forces concentrated along the lawless border with Afghanistan began an offensive that eventually wrested control from the government of two-thirds of the country. Terrorists then launched a devastating attack on Mumbai, India. The Pakistani military retaliated with renewed military incursions into the Afghan border region and arrests of terrorists involved in the Mumbai attacks. Inside Afghanistan, the Taliban, allied with warlords, opium growers, and the remnants of al-Qaeda, seized most of the country outside of Kabul from the government and coalition forces. Obama promised a new military emphasis on the country, but there were growing signs by the end of the year that the help that might come would be too little and too late. Public Enemy #1 Osama bin-Laden remained at large over seven years after the 9/11 attacks.
5. RESURGENT RUSSIA
Almost overlooked with the drama of events in China, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Somalia ,Russia asserted itself dramatically by invading neighboring Georgia and daring the rest of the world to do something about it. Murders of dissident Russians at home and abroad (including a high-profile case in Britain) sent an ominous message that Russia’s experiment with democracy may be over. Soviet destroyers appeared in Cuban ports; Bear bombers went back out on patrol along the East Coast of the U.S.; tanks deployed into Georgia; threats were issued to cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine; anti-West overtures were offered to Iran; threats issued against U.S. missile defense in Europe; and finally, the firing, albeit unsuccessfully, of a new generation of ICBM seemed to signal Russia’s intent to test Obama right of the gate. Clearly, Russia is looking to come on center stage once more.
6. AFRICA IN CRISIS
The year started off with a shocking deterioration in what was considered the most stable of countries – Kenya – as allegations of electoral fraud in the national elections sparked riots across the country that soon turned into ugly mobs bent on ethnic cleansing raging out of control. Off the coast of Somalia, which has not had a central government in over a decade, modern-day pirates routinely hijacked commercial ships for ransom, while the world stood helplessly by, unable to come up withy a suitable military response. Meanwhile, rebels in the Congo, Mali, and Nigeria waged guerrilla war, and in the south, Mugabe's pending downfall added to the continent’s general instability. China's rush to build up infrastructures, and extract Africa’s rich veins of minerals and metals, competed with new American initiatives in North and West Africa, big corporations looking for arable land as well as resources and raw materials, at continued at the expense of democratic reform.
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