Political Truths

The Republican primaries continue to weaken the party's chances this fall. Santorum wins three yesterday, confusing the meme that it was a Romney-Gingrich race. Santorum has now won more primaries than Romney.

My hunch is that this race goes on for a while, but that in the end, Romney will win the nomination.

By then, however, the GOP will have as its candidate a very rich man (part of the one percent) who consistently seems out of touch with the rest of us.

Is this a winning formula?

No.

Obama has had a checkered first term, but most Presidents do, historically. If he is to have any chance at being a great President, it was always going to be in his second term, when there is no longer any political goal to be achieved.

I suppose, therefore, we will face a race between two centrists, Obama v. Romney. In that case, Obama will almost certainly win the popular vote. I have not yet done the calculations on the electoral vote, which may allow Romney a chance to win with a minority of the popular vote.

Meanwhile, for the first time in a while, the Republican hold on the House is now in question, and it appears that the Democrats have a viable shot at regaining their majority there.

The Senate seems likely to remain in the Democratic Party's control.

All of this is subject to change, and before I issue solid predictions, as those who have followed my political coverage in previous election cycles well know, I will crunch all the data.

Election predictions must be grounded in numbers, not emotion, bias, or wishful thinking.

Putting on my journalistic hat, which is devoid of all emotion, bias, and wishful thinking, I anticipate a very close race for the White House, perhaps a close as the contested 2000 election.

Beyond that, it is way too soon to venture any guesses. Plus, as is always the case, the state of the economy will sway many voters, and determine the turnout. For that, we have to wait and see.

It's still anyone's White House, Senate and House. Let's be clear about that. Either party could sweep all three, lose all three -- or most likely -- split them, two out of three.

In that sense, this is one of the most uncertain cycles of the past twelve I've covered, starting in 1964.

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