Well, Obama won this one. After looking like he wanted to be anywhere else but at a debate the first time around, this time Obama showed up and actually debated Romney.
In the process, at several key moments, he prevailed in ways that will no doubt start showing up in the polls over the next few days.
I'd expect Obama to open up a 3-4 point lead in the popular vote poll by a week from today (before tonight they were essentially tied).
Still, these debates are not necessarily pivotal events. Many other factors play into how a Presidential race turns out. To me, the most important number is from the swing state of Ohio, where even before tonight's debate, Obama held a ten point lead.
Romney, like any Republican, is not going to win the election without Ohio. If my assessment proves correct, he will be around 13-14 points down there a week from now.
He has one last chance in the third and final debate, which occurs in another swing state, Florida. I'd say it makes sense to stay tuned, pay attention and see how the campaigns adjust as Obama pulls back out into the lead, and the stakes for that debate grow higher.
If I were an adviser to either candidate, I'd suggest using that debate to talk about some concrete pans and policy initiatives, since they've both been maddeningly vague to date.
I'd say the guy with more specifics will convert more "undecideds" that night. Whether it changes the outcome is itself debatable. After all, it is still the President's to lose and his electoral advantage (forget the popular vote) remains substantial.
-30-
No comments:
Post a Comment