Bernie Sanders had a good day yesterday, winning three Western primaries. Although he is way behind Hillary Clinton in delegates, that is mainly because she has all the so-called super delegates, which are assigned by the party establishment, I think he is only 282 delegates behind her in the elected group.
I am enjoying the Democratic debates and speeches. They are civil with each other and talking about substantive issues. I assume Clinton will win the nomination, but Sanders has pushed the conversation in a direction that progressives and idealistic youth appreciate.
On the Republican side, it's a food fight. And while that might delight some people, it disturbs me. Donald Trump is of course the story. But while it is easy to dismiss him with his bluster and hyperbole, it's far harder to dismiss the feelings of those who are supporting him enthusiastically.
There are legitimate reasons for the anger and fear and frustration many Americans feel these days. There is an enormous wealth gap, a growing job dearth, distrust of big government, and fears of terrorism. These are real things, not imaginative yearnings of the Trump campaign. I share their feelings.
By contrast, Ted Cruz is an extremely unimpressive candidate, as were all the others, now out of the race. The Republican Party lacks strong leaders, and Trump has walked into that vacuum.
Trump may well win the GOP nomination, and if so, I have no idea which candidate would win the Presidency. My instinct, based on memory from 1980, is Trump. But I believe some other scenario will play out here.
For one thing, there is something deeply wrong with Trump's personal behavior. He tweets obnoxious insults about his opponents late at night. What does that suggest? It suggests a man who may be impaired as the night goes on, sending intemperate messages that he might not have done at an earlier hour and a less impaired state.
I suspect this will become something that gets clarified eventually. That will not be in Trump's favor.
Sanders probably will fall short of the delegate count but would be a great vice-presidential candidate for Clinton. I believe that will happen -- or another V-P candidate attractive to youthful voters, which Clinton needs to get to vote for her.
If either party splits -- the Republicans bolting from Trump or Sanders bolting from Clinton, that party will lose. Except, of course, if both parties split, because then we would have a four-party race.
All in all, a fascinating political cycle, as long as you don't really care about the future of this country. In that event, fascinating may not be the right word here...
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