Political Year

Personally, I'm still basking in the afterglow of Peter and Claire's wedding. It was an amazing experience, emotional and so full of connections with family and friends.

But I also have to keep tuned into the political dynamic in this country and state -- both for work purposes and out of personal interest.

Donald Trump's self-destructive "campaign" is like nothing I've ever witnessed. In 1980, everyone I knew predicted Ronald Reagan could not defeat incumbent Jimmy Carter, but Reagan ran the better campaign and swept into power for the next eight years.

I enjoy math, or at least numbers. Presidential races are won by percentage points -- like 2, 4 or 6. Hillary Clinton leads Trump by 10 points in many states; here in California by much, much more.

Trump's misstep is that he continues to mouth off like he did in the primary race, when his audience was the Republican base. That worked then but it isn't working now. Nobody ever won a Presidential election with only the GOP base as their support network.

Nobody.

Any political analyst would have advised him to dial it back and begin to act "Presidential." In other words, start behaving like a decent moderate person who cares about everyone and has policy ideas for attacking the many problems facing this nation.

If he has any political analysts they are clearly being over-ruled.

The numbers tell the tale. At this point, Clinton projects to some 330 electoral votes, far more than the 270 she needs to claim victory. She is well ahead in most of the battleground states -- that is why she has such a large electoral margin.

Meanwhile Trump seems constitutionally incapable of changing his game. The things he says, off the cuff, which so delight the GOP base, actually offend all of the rest of us. Who wants a President who hates Mexicans, Muslims, immigrants of all kind, women, the parents of a fallen soldier, and who belittles all his opponents with childish nicknames and insults?

Who wants a bully in the White House?

It is no surprise Republican leaders by the dozens are deserting Trump. They now sense they will probably lose not only the White House race but control of the Senate. We are at the beginning of a statistical pivot point where the House of Representatives could come into play.

My own experience and sense of political narrative tells me Trump will probably come around and try to correct ship. After all, most voters don't start paying attention until after Labor Day, which is still a few weeks away.

If he does, he should be able to close the gap with Clinton and even win a few battleground states, at least Florida.

But the math is the math, and nobody who studies it can, at this point, project anything but a Clinton victory this November. If that holds true, Trump can then take what he calls a "nice long vacation."

I suspect most Americans will sigh with relief at that prospect.

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