Monday, January 27, 2020

Political Scenario

So Trump has been impeached. Everyone assumes he will be exonerated by the Senate. There may even be a mock trial with no witnesses.

Once that is done, the Democrats will choose their candidate for President. The polls will indicate which party is likely to win the few battleground states that really matter.

If Trump trails by a significant margin in these polls, his best option might be to resign and have the new Republican President, Mike Pence, pardon him of all crimes. That's what Ford did for Nixon in 1974.

Pence could appoint a popular figure like Nikki Haley as Vice-President. This might even help him pull out an election victory, but if the Democrats win the presidency, they would presumably respect Pence's pardon.

If Trump stays in the race and  wins re-election, the Democrats will definitely hold the House and may even win the Senate, If that happens, Trump faces risk after risk the next four years.

My bet is he resigns this summer.

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