Then and Now

Our top story is from FiveThirtyEight:

 * Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition.

But the election is not being held today. While the polls have been stable so far this year, it’s still only August. The debates and the conventions have yet to occur. Biden only named his running mate yesterday. And the campaign is being conducted amidst a pandemic the likes of which the United States has not seen in more than 100 years, which is also causing an unprecedented and volatile economy.

Nor has it been that uncommon, historically, for polls to shift fairly radically from mid-August until Election Day. Furthermore, there are some reasons to think the election will tighten, and President Trump is likely to have an advantage in a close election because of the Electoral College.

That, in a nutshell, is why the FiveThirtyEight presidential election forecast, which we launched today, still has Trump with a 29 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, despite his current deficit in the polls. This is considerably higher than some other forecasts, which put Trump’s chances at around 10 percent. Biden’s chances are 71 percent in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, conversely.

* Black women express an overwhelming level of joy over the pick -- Joe Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris generated powerful emotions even for many who were skeptical about Kamala Harris’s presidential run. (Washington Post)

* Harris wants to give Americans $2,000 a month during pandemic -- On taxes, health care and climate policy, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s pick for vice president, has staked out more-liberal positions.(Washington Post)

* HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS TO HARRIS' SENATE SEAT IF SHE BECOMES VP With Kamala Harris back on the campaign trail as Joe Biden’s running mate, California may well have an empty Senate seat to fill come November. If Biden and Harris win the election in November, California Gov. Gavin Newsom will choose someone to fill Harris’ seat in the Senate. Unless the Democratic governor opts to call a special election next year, whoever he picks will serve out the rest of Harris’ term until January 2023. Already, Newsom is facing pressure to appoint a historic candidate. Harris is only the second Black woman to ever serve in the U.S. Senate. [HuffPost]

* Google, Facebook and Others Broaden Group to Secure U.S. Election -- More tech companies met with government agencies on Wednesday to fight disinformation on social media. (New York Times)

* U.S. reports highest number of virus deaths in one day since mid-May -- President Trump continued to press for schools to bring children into classrooms, for businesses to open and for athletes to fill stadiums. (Washington Post)

* TRUMP HAS ALMOST ELIMINATED INTELLIGENCE BRIEFINGS FROM HIS SCHEDULE Trump’s interest in taking intelligence briefings has been declining steadily since his first months in office and has dropped to near zero in recent weeks.  [HuffPost]

* San Francisco is the closest thing the West Coast has to an East Coast enclave packed full of political giants. That’s where Ms. Harris came up. [The Los Angeles Times]

* Thanks to coronavirus and Zoom, we’re looking at the end stages of college as a commodity (Washington Post)

* The pandemic will make movies and TV shows look like nothing we’ve seen before -- No crowd scenes. Few locations. Limited romance. Hollywood entertainment is about to get really strange. (Washington Post)

***

Yesterday, for the first time in memory, my three youngest children and I did a very simple thing -- we had lunch together. 

At least it used to be simple.

In this case, their schedules all meshed and since I was staying only ten minutes from where they are living, it became a possibility.

They drove over to me, stopping on 24th Street at Toast, a restaurant we used to frequent. It was a place where we often ran into people we knew over the course of many years. We'd usually go there for brunch.

This time, they picked up takeout and we ate in the backyard of my oldest son's house; he is of course their big brother. 

The three youngest are all in they twenties. Julia is 21, and awaiting word whether a rental unit will work out for her and her friends in New Jersey this fall. Their college classes begin August 24th at their campus in Maryland. She is a senior.

But no in-person classes are allowed.

Dylan is 24, and just starting classes for the final semester of the his senior year at S.F. State as a history major. He loves Russian history, he told me. He's working as an intern for a global anti-poverty non-profit.

Aidan is 26 next month, working as an EMT, but planning on taking more courses in pursuit ultimately of a nursing degree. He is very skilled at taking care of people (Prime example: me).

The kids talked about the pandemic, the election, the politicians they feel actually represent their generation (like AOC), and how few of their friends really know what they want to do as "careers." They noted that the idea of a single career seems outmoded, and virtually irrelevant from their perspective.

"I feel like the jobs we want to do don't exist yet," said Dylan.

It's as if they, too, are suspended in time, waiting for their future to arrive.

Meanwhile, we all just cope.

Talking with these bright, well-educated, sensitive young people, who've turned out well despite their slacker Dad, helped clarify my own feelings and those expressed by my friends who are older.

We all seem to be in some sort of transition, to what or where we don't know. Maybe that's why our emotions, which have been bottled up for so long, can spill over at the slightest excuse.

I've always cried at movies, but this is becoming ridiculous, as I watch films for the hundredth time and see someone's dream come true, some couple's unlikely love come true.  Happy endings of all kinds somehow come true.

But that's Hollywood and that's what sells. Can there actually still be a silver lining to all of this for those of us stuck in the real world?

In my case, as one of the lucky ones who's survived serious illnesses and whose family members have taken him in, I nevertheless feel like a mismatched piece of old furniture, leftover from a bygone era.

I used to have matching pieces but they've been lost along the way. Now there's just me, old but sturdy, a specimen from former times.

The problem is I don't really fit in anywhere anymore. I'm a relic.

Being back in San Francisco was bound to stir up emotions such as these. I lived so much of my life there, accomplished so much and survived so many failures.

One of my granddaughters has a perfect expression for how I feel because the days she often has the same feeling, for different reasons. "I'm happy and sad at the same time."

By the end of yesterday, I'd actually seen all six of my children and all seven of my grandchildren in the same day, at three separate times.

Pretty good for a mere relic.

-30-