Tuesday, October 06, 2020

Will We Be Getting Better?

 

Though Biden is reportedly pulling away from Trump in the polls, including in the Southeast, the victor in the election four weeks from now will remain firmly dependent on the hoary tradition of the Electoral College. The national popular vote is irrelevant, which of course is anti-democratic on its face.

As such, the only votes that actually matter are in the handful of swing states, where allocation of the electoral votes will determine who is the next president of the U.S.

So Democrats are not celebrating -- yet. They fear the toxic messaging emanating from Trump may have metastasized into a return of the cancer that elected him in 2016.

Thus we proceed cautiously. No one is his right mind would predict the outcome at this point.

Surveying the options as I once again sorted through the major news sources for clues as to what will happen, I found myself in a nostalgic mood for simpler times.

So I watched "The Sound of Music."

Were those actually simpler times? When fascists ruled Germany and invaded its European neighbors? No, of course not. They are only romantic in retrospect because of how the war turned out.

The film is loosely based on a real Austrian singing family, the von Trapps, who indeed escaped Nazi grasp to make it to America during World War Two.

My only personal contact with a family member was when I received a letter from one of the sons of Georg Von Trapp in Vermont about my work on the "Circle of Poison" in the 1980s.

The last surviving of the original seven von Trapp children, Maria Franziska, died in 2014 at the age of 99.

The sweet tale of art over fascism, of dancing over marching, of freedom over tyranny, of love against the odds was exactly what I needed to combat the situational depression of our current predicament. 

It is comforting to remember that the first three notes just happen to be Do Re Mi. But the final notes of this present era remain to be written.

***

Senior Pentagon leadership quarantining after exposure to coronavirus (CNN)

* Stocks nosedive after Trump ends stimulus/economic relief talks with Congress (CNN)

Republicans still follow Trump’s lead on virus as turmoil grows (WashPo)

Trump's losing among seniors at a historic rate (CNN)

JPMorgan Pledges to Push Clients to Align With Paris Climate Agreement (WSJ)

With less than a month before the November election, Trump has hit a new low: He now trails Biden among likely voters by his largest margin (16 points) of any CNN poll conducted in this entire election. Fully 9 in 10 likely voters (90%) in the poll say that their minds are made up when it comes to which candidate they will be voting for this fall. (CNN)

Biden is favored to win the election -- We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible. Biden 82%, Trump 17%. (538)

Fed chair warns of economic tragedy if America can't control the coronavirus (CNN)

Goldman Sachs: A Democratic sweep would mean faster economic recovery (CNN)

***

Doe, a deer, a female deer
Ray, a drop of golden sun
Me, a name, I call myself
Far, a long, long way to run
Sew, a needle pulling thread
La, a note to follow So
Tea, a drink with jam and bread
That will lead us back to Do

-- Richard Rodgers

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