I'm not going to be able to let go of my preoccupation with how bad media organizations are with math for a while. Today, the old SNL riff plays in my head:
"In sports today, the scores were 7-14, 28-6, 21-20, and 14-30." Right.
Watching a reporter at a "magic wall" say inane things like "Biden has 367,189 votes in this county, but Hillary Clinton got 512,843 votes in 2016 so he still has a ways to go," infuriates me.
The Democrat in 2020 isn't running against the Democrat in 2016 so those totals are borderline-irrelevant.
What we need to know is the overall vote total, how many votes remain to be tallied, and the percentage going to Biden. Then we need to know the vote total and the percentage that went to Clinton four years ago.
In math, it's called comparing apples to apples. In economics, it's called all other things remaining equal.
Why are these simple mathematical principles so difficult for otherwise intelligent and well-educated people to grasp?
A related but separate issue is why the national and state polls were so inaccurate this cycle, just as they were in 2016. I've heard lots of theories; perhaps the most credible is that a lot of Trump voters refused to cooperate with pollsters when they called.
Whatever, the final polls tended to be off nationally and state by state by about an average of six points. This caused the popular vote margin for Biden to be somewhat smaller, though still significant, especially in the battleground Midwestern Three (MI, WI, PA). where the victory margins ended up much thinner than predicted.
That, plus the disparity in favor of Democrats in mail-in votes have given rise to the awful conspiracy theories that continue to coarsen our national conversation about the election.
I've never worked a s a pollster, but I have spoken to enough of them to be familiar with their methodology. It occurs to me that they have not adjusted their methodology enough to account for social media and the tendency of people to reveal their true selves there.
In addition to the evidence of a person's political leanings on Twitter, Facebook, etc., the demise of land lines in favor of cell phones could be a factor. Few people will answer a cell phone from an unknown caller. Pollsters are by definition unknown callers.
Just for fun, I checked the most recent popular vote and electoral vote totals from the four largest states -- California, Texas, New York and Florida. Biden leads by 4.6+ million votes in those four, as opposed to 4.7- million votes nationally. That difference will probably disappear as the remaining ballots are tabulated.
BTW, the few allegations of mail-in voting fraud that are out there are slowly crumbling into dust, rendering Trump's claims as they have always been -- baseless.
***
On to the (mostly) true news headlines:
* The Times Called Officials in Every State: No Evidence of Voter Fraud -- The president and his allies have baselessly claimed that rampant voter fraud stole victory from him. Officials contacted by The Times said that there were no irregularities that affected the outcome. (NYT)
* A Pennsylvania postal worker whose claims have been cited by top Republicans as potential evidence of widespread voting irregularities recanted to U.S. Postal Service investigators. (WashPo)
* The Economy’s Struggles Will Shape Joe Biden’s Presidency (WSJ)
* As president, Donald Trump selectively revealed highly classified information to attack his adversaries, gain political advantage and to impress or intimidate foreign governments, in some cases jeopardizing U.S. intelligence capabilities. As an ex-president, there's every reason to worry he will do the same, thus posing a unique national security dilemma for the Biden administration, current and former officials and analysts said. (Houston Chron)
* U.S. Supreme Court justices appear unlikely to throw out Obamacare (Reuters)
* Growing discomfort at law firms representing Trump in US election lawsuits -- Some lawyers at Jones Day and Porter Wright, which have filed suits about the 2020 vote, said they were worried about undermining the electoral system (Business Standard)
* One in five COVID-19 patients develop mental illness within 90 days: study (Reuters)
* Japan welcomes Biden victory (NHK)
* U.S. election: Justice lawyer quits after attorney general orders 'vote fraud' inquiries (BBC)
* As virus spikes, Europe runs low on ICU beds, hospital staff (AP)
* The U.S. has absolutely no control over the coronavirus. China is on top of the tiniest risks. (WashPo)
* Trump's term as President as measured in weeks is 97.12 percent over; he has 2.88 percent left. (DW)
* U.S.-Mexico border: Bid to reunite migrant families 'finds 121 more separated children' (BBC)
* Trump Demands William Barr Prove Loyalty By Putting Gun In Mouth, Pulling Trigger (The Onion)
* You Can Get Anything You Want / At Alice's Restaurant (Arlo Guthrie)
***
As he ws preparing the Old Trinity Church (made famous in his song "Alice's Restaurant" in 1967) in Great Barrington, MA for reopening in 2018, Arlo Guthrie says that a local minister stopped by and asked:
"Arlo, what kind of church is this?"
"It's a 'Bring Your Own God' church," Guthrie replied.
***
Deep down inside we wanna believe they still do
And a secret is taught
It's our favorite part of the story
Let's just admit we all want to make it too
If we just don't get it our own way
Ever ever after
It may only be a wish away
Sometimes you reach what's realest by making believe
Unafraid, unashamed
There is joy to be claimed in this world
You even might wind up being glad to be you
-30-
-30-
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