"Only Connect" -- E.M. Forster
____
A big part of the pandemic experience for me was reconnecting, and given I've had a relatively long life with more jobs than the average Baby Boomer, there are a lot of people to reconnect with, potentially.
Recently partly out of curiosity I pinged a list of former employees from one company just to see if it still worked. There had not been any messages in about seven years but -- surprise! -- some 20+ people responded. So the list was dormant but not dead.
Most people seemed happy to weigh in again, some gave personal updates. A few sounded like they would have preferred not to be reminded of a time that is now long past.
But by far the most satisfying to me were a handful private messages off the list from people who told me we had mutual connections, including with my family members. These were relationships I wasn't even aware of.
I guess the message is "only connect." True in a great novel, true in life.
***
If you go back and study the previous pandemics in human history, one problem inevitably is that the casualty estimates are at best only rough approximates. Contemporaneous accounts often provide graphic detail of what the situation appeared to be to those on the ground, but we can't know with certainty how many people died or suffered lasting health damage.
We have much better tracking systems in place now but they too have their limits. Our current estimates of 33.7 million cases and 605,000 deaths in the U.S. from Covid no doubt undercount the true totals, according to public health officials.
But we know enough to say it's been bad.
Today I sifted through the latest reports from around the world to try and assess whether the danger has truly passed or whether sooner or later in the U.S. we'll face a new surge in cases. Here are my best guesses, with the caveat that I'm not a public health expert:
* For those of us who are fully vaccinated, the evidence indicates we are protected from the current, hyper-contagious delta variant. We may get infected but show no symptoms.
* Unvaccinated adults are at greater risk, however, because the delta mutant is much more contagious than the original. And also because those of us who are vaccinated will probably pass it on to them unknowingly.
* So what we have is a complete reversal in roles. Before vaccines, the maskless fraction of the population threatened the masked portion. Now the opposite appears to be true.
* As CNN reports, there are five huge unvaccinated clusters of people in the South at particular risk of incubating new variants beyond delta. The virus has proved capable of mutating quickly among unprotected populations. This further puts all of us at risk.
* But the good news is that the major vaccines are not only effective, manufacturers will most likely be able to develop boosters in real time to protect us from new variants. They may be able to create these new vaccines in as little as three weeks.
* Next, even if the U.S. can overcome vaccine hesitancy and reach herd immunity, unvaccinated ares of poor countries around the world may well incubate new variants much like what will soon be occurring in those five clusters in the southern U.S.
* Due to vaccine inequality in the poor world, new mutations will most likely continue to emerge globally for a long time to come.
* At least, most government officials in the U.S. now realize that placing new restrictions, including masks and social distancing, in place will help mitigate any future waves, so our public infrastructure is better prepared to deal with whatever happens next.
* The preventative measures used against Covid-19 also vastly reduced the winter flu season to a non-event. That suggests that similar methods could help restrain future outbreaks of coronavirus or other pandemics.
* In the future, probably the only people who will die from coronavirus will be unvaccinated adults, with very few exceptions.
* Children who do not have compromised immune systems will probably remain free from the worst effects of coronavirus illnesses whether they are vaccinated or not. But as always they may pass on the virus to more vulnerable populations, i.e., unvaccinated adults.
* Probably Covid will be as routine a matter as the flu has been for years. Of course that still means a lot of misery for some people.
The bottom line of this summary is while most of us are probably out of the woods for now, there still is potential trouble, big trouble, for those stuck in the anti-vaccine backwoods. Their problem (in the U.S.) is ignorance.
Meanwhile, the virus, which appears to be far more intelligent than certain members of the human family, knows how to exploit that problem.
***
THE HEADLINES:
* WHO sounds alarm as toll tops 4 million, delta spreads to 100 countries (WP)
* The global death toll from COVID-19 eclipsed 4 million Wednesday as countries race to vaccinate their populations while the mutant delta version spreads rapidly. The death toll is about equal to the population of Los Angeles or the nation of Georgia, but is likely to be an undercount. [AP]
* Five undervaccinated clusters put the entire United States at risk (CNN)
* New study on delta variant reveals importance of receiving both vaccine shots, highlights challenges posed by mutations (WP)
* Olympics Host city Tokyo bans Olympic spectators amid COVID-19 emergency (Reuters)
* The recent emergence of a virus that typically sickens children in colder months has baffled U.S. pediatricians and put many infants in the hospital with troublesome coughs and breathing trouble. RSV, or respiratory syncytial virus, is a common cause of cold-like symptoms but can be serious for infants and the elderly. (AP)
* The Latest: Virus outbreak straining Fiji’s medical system (AP)
* ‘Zero Chance of Survival’: Search for Survivors in Condo Collapse Is Ending (NYT)
* Officials Will End Search Efforts After Condominium Collapse -- Officials in Florida said after two weeks of searching for victims they would shift their focus to recovery efforts after assessing that no survivors would be found. (AP)
* Police capture, kill alleged assailants in assassination of Haitian president (WP)
* Climate Change Drove Western Heat Wave’s Extreme Records, Analysis Finds -- A rapid analysis of last week’s record-breaking heat found that it would have been virtually impossible without the influence of human-caused climate change. (NYT)
* A Young Naturalist Inspires With Joy, Not Doom -- At 17, Dara McAnulty is becoming one of Britain’s most acclaimed nature writers, with work that touches on his autism as much as the world around his home. (NYT)
* U.S. says humans will always be in control of AI weapons. But autonomous war is already here. (WP)
* Research from the Scripps Research Translational Institute suggests that wearable fitness trackers — like Fitbit and Apple Watch — can not only help detect early signs of Covid-19, but they can also track lasting effects of the virus. (NYT)
* Even Marjorie Taylor Greene Thinks Mike Lindell’s Trump Reinstatement Theory Is B.S. --The Georgia congresswoman told people not to get their hopes up that Trump would be back in the White House next month “because that’s not true.” (HuffPost)
* Abbott Opens Texas G.O.P.’s Push to Limit Voting and Reshape the State (NYT)
* Sha’Carri Richardson was punished for her humanity. But it only makes her more impressive. (WP)
* The complete sidelining of U.S. track star Sha’Carri Richardson from the Tokyo Olympics stinks, White House press secretary Jen Psaki agreed. “We know the rules are where they are; maybe we should take another look at them,” Psaki suggested. [HuffPost]
* ‘Financially Hobbled for Life’: The Elite Master’s Degrees That Don’t Pay Off --Columbia and other top universities push master’s programs that fail to generate enough income for graduates to keep up with six-figure federal loans. (WSJ)
* FDA narrows use of Alzheimer’s drug to patients with early-stage disease (WP)
* ‘In the End We Felt Betrayed’: Vietnamese Veterans See Echoes in Afghanistan (NYT)
* U.S. considers visas for vulnerable Afghan women after military exit (Reuters)
* Scientists Discover Thousands of Ancient Tombs In Galaxy-Like Patterns (Vice)
* Coronavirus Variant Excited To Compete With World’s Top Mutations In Tokyo This Summer (The Onion)
***
Today's soundtrack comes to us courtesy of SARS-CoV-2 aka Covid-19:
"Coming for You"
I remember everything they'd say
Maybe thought that I was crazy
Thinking that one day they'd see my name
Know exactly what I wanted to have
Fear of growing older, chip all on my shoulder
Told myself I'm never looking back
I'm losing my innocence
And you don't know my intent
Better back down 'cause I'm coming for you
Better back down 'cause I'm coming for you
Better back down 'cause I'm coming for you
Better back down 'cause I'm coming for you
Better back down 'cause I'm coming for you
Better back down 'cause I'm coming for you
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