What was originally unimaginable has become distinctly possible: Ukraine may win the war with Russia. “Winning” is a relative term, of course, with thousands of casualties and devastated cities, displaced populations and an utterly traumatized society, so maybe a better way of describing the outcome of this war is that Putin may lose it.
Russia failing in an imperial conquest is not that outlandish a concept. Historically, we have only to remember what happened when the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan in 1979, only a few years after I finished my time there as an English teacher.
The Soviets stayed in Afghanistan a decade and the hostilities lasted until 1992. The Russians had a vastly superior military force of 100,000 personnel and were widely expected to prevail. They bombed the cities and population centers, driving 4.3 million Afghans into exile, but could never subdue the resistance, which fought a guerrilla war aided by shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles sent by the U.S.
A fundamentalist mujahideen movement based on a 19th century rebellion in colonial India arose during this conflict, eventually including the Taliban and al-Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden.
Meanwhile, the Soviet Union collapsed, al-Qaeda emerged as a terrorist organization, and in 2001 the U.S. replaced Russia as the dominant foreign occupier in Afghanistan due to al-Qaeda’s attacks on 9-11. The U.S. forces stayed 20 years and finally departed only last August, leaving the Taliban in control of the country, and millions of educated, urbanized Afghans without a functional society, as my 27 (to date) published “Afghan conversations” have documented.
Bottom line: There is a historically strong precedent for a Russian defeat. Its army was never as fearsome as it appeared to be and the resolve of the Ukrainians parallels that of the Afghans — both will fight to the death before allowing any foreign power to control their destiny.
They simply refuse to be defeated.
The Biden administration’s reluctance to do much more to aid Ukraine now the tide is turning may be informed by this history as well. Nobody wants a new monster like al-Qaeda to emerge when the Ukrainians prevail, turning its focus against new enemies, i.e., the West.
Victory for Ukraine over Putin will be a good thing, without qualification and without any doubt. But the aftermath matters too. Nobody wants another Afghanistan.
Today’s Stories (64):
Ukraine appears to have begun shelling Russian territory (Fox)
More than a month since Russia's invasion, the defence of Ukraine's capital Kyiv has played out in heavy clashes in places like Lukyanivka and the nearby town of Brovary to the east, Irpin and Bucha to the northwest and Makariv to the west. When the histories are written such towns and villages may be minor details, but they are where the Russian advance has been halted. (Reuters)
Russia's Military Says It Will Reduce Military Operations In Kyiv, Chernihiv (NBC)
Putin Pullback Isn’t a Retreat, U.S. Says (Bloomberg)
Russia Plays Down Peace Talks, Steps Up Eastern Assault (WSJ)
Ukraine and its Western allies dismissed a Russian military pullback from near Kyiv as a ploy to refit troops after heavy losses, even as invading forces bombard cities elsewhere and press on with the obliteration of besieged Mariupol. (Reuters)
Putin demands Mariupol surrender to end shelling (BBC)
Sanctioned Oligarch’s Presence Adds Intrigue to Ukraine-Russia Talks (NYT)
Zelensky says the "positive" signs do not "drown out" the sound of Russian attacks (BBC)
Peace Talks Produce Signs of Progress, but No End to War Is in Sight (NYT)
Ukraine calls on UN to push Russia away from Chernobyl to prevent 'nuclear catastrophe' (Fox)
Europe’s Expulsion of Russian Officials Aims to Disrupt Alleged Spy Networks (WSJ)
Roman Hrybov, the Ukrainian sailor whose response to a Russian warship quickly became a symbol of the bloody conflict, has returned home and been awarded a medal for his service. His garrison on Snake Island was released last week as part of a prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia. [HuffPost]
A growing number of Russians living abroad are finding issues accessing their money. We look at how Western sanctions meant to punish President Vladimir Putin's inner circle are also broadly ensnaring Russian passport holders. (Reuters)
Beijing moves to strengthen Moscow ties in wake of Ukraine invasion (Financial Times)
4,000 letters and four hours of sleep: Ukrainian cabinet minister wages a digital war (WP)
Kyiv is urging companies to resume bike rentals so residents can move around the city (NPR)
OHCHR: At least 1,189 civilians in Ukraine killed since invasion (NHK)
Putin’s war has triggered an exodus out of Russia – but the escape options are shrinking (CNN)
Number of Ukraine refugees passes worst-case U.N. estimate (AP)
UNICEF: 2 million children evacuated from Ukraine (NHK)
Europe's economy is increasingly feeling the heat from Russia's war in Ukraine as growth stalls, confidence plummets and inflation soars, data and warnings from policymakers made clear. (Reuters)
Maternity patients among 20,000 civilians forcibly deported to Russia, Mariupol says (NPR)
When You No Longer Recognize Your Home Country — People who left homelands that have since undergone severe political changes are grieving the demise of a place as they knew it. (Atlantic)
Desperate for Cash, Afghans Toil in Coal Mines That Are Deadlier Than Ever (NYT)
US imposes new sanctions against Iran’s ballistic missile program (CNN)
The number of people crossing the Darien Gap, one of the most dangerous and impassable regions of Latin America, has almost tripled compared to the same period last year, the United Nations Refugee Agency said. The lawless stretch of mountainous jungle between Colombia and Panama is one of the main routes taken by migrants and refugees trying to head north to the United States. (Reuters)
Teachers fear the chilling effect of Florida's so-called 'Don't Say Gay' law (NPR)
'Treachery'—Donald Trump Faces Backlash for Asking Vladimir Putin a Favor (Newsweek)
New Focus on How a Trump Tweet Incited Far-Right Groups Ahead of Jan. 6 (NYT)
The top two U.S. Justice Department officials in the waning days of Donald Trump's presidency are cooperating with a Washington legal body's ethics probe of their former colleague Jeffrey Bossert Clark, who tried to help Trump overturn his 2020 election loss, according to a person familiar with the matter. (Reuters)
Could Trump blow the midterms for the GOP? (Politico)
Political battle lines form on Clarence Thomas (The Hill)
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas should recuse himself from any cases about the attack on the Capitol by Trump's followers. Schumer became the most high-ranking Democrat to make that request of the conservative justice after the Washington Post and CBS News reported on text messages showing that Thomas's wife Virginia Thomas urged Mark Meadows, Trump's then-chief of staff, to work to overturn Biden's election win. (Reuters)
Legal ethics experts agree: Justice Thomas must recuse in insurrection cases (NPR)
GOP Sen. Susan Collins to Vote for Supreme Court Nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson (WSJ)
The military wants AI to replace human decision-making in battle (WP)
This Robot Promises to Make Your Briefcase Obsolete — While spending a few days with the new Gitamini, we discovered the joys (and challenges) of letting a robot carry our stuff. (WSJ)
FBI raids home over threats made to judge, attorneys and potential witness in Michigan Gov. Whitmer kidnap plot trial (CNN)
Despite High Covid-19 Case Counts, Asian Nations Learn to Live With the Virus (WSJ)
Ultra-contagious BA.2 Omicron strain adds urgency to second booster shot (LAT)
BA.2 Symptoms Doctors Are Seeing The Most Right Now (HuffPost)
WHO probes rare reports of hearing issues after COVID-19 vaccination (Becker’s Hospital Review)
COVID disparities persist for Black Americans. But there are lessons for the future (NPR)
Into the wild: Animals the latest frontier in COVID fight (AP)
Physician-assisted death in Oregon is no longer limited to just state residents (NPR)
Americans, especially Republicans, are getting more worried about inflation. (NYT)
For the second year in a row, Biden omitted the Hyde Amendment from his budget proposal to Congress for fiscal year 2023, keeping his promise to support reproductive health in a year when abortion rights are in peril. The amendment has been criticized as anti-choice and blatantly racist, as it disproportionately affects low-income women and communities of color. [HuffPost]
Inside Hunter Biden’s multimillion-dollar deals with a Chinese energy company (WP)
Canada police renew effort to arrest ‘devil priest’ for alleged abuse of Inuit children (Guardian)
'Potentially hazardous asteroid' will make its closest-ever approach to Earth on April Fools' Day (yes, really) (LiveScience)
Hubble picks up the most distant star yet observed (Ars Technica)
‘A San Francisco neighborhood in chaos:’ Is the Mission following in the Tenderloin’s footsteps? (SFC)
The 'Holy Grail' of gambling could break American sports betting wide open (Politico)
Pink Floyd, a flamingo on the lam from a Kansas zoo since 2005, is seen again in Texas (NPR)
Severe flooding strikes Australian east coast again (BBC)
Why People Are Acting So Weird — Crime, “unruly passenger” incidents, and other types of strange behavior have all soared recently. Why? (Atlantic)
Baby Sea Turtle Crawling Towards Ocean Makes Detour To Hit On Sexy Lady (The Onion)
Today’s Lyrics:
“Dropkick Me Jesus”
Sung by Bobby Bare
Written by Paul Craft
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
End over end, neither left, nor the right
Straight through the heart of them righteous uprights
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
Make me, oh, make me, Lord, more than I am
Make a piece in your master game plan
Free from the earthly tempestion below
I've got the will, Lord, if you've got the toe
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
End over end, neither left, nor the right
Straight through the heart of them righteous uprights
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
Bring on the brothers who've gone on before
And all of the sisters who've knocked at your door
All the departed, dear loved ones of mine
And stick 'em up front in the offensive line
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
End over end, neither left, nor the right
Straight through the heart of them righteous uprights
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
End over end, neither left, nor the right
Straight through the heart of them righteous uprights
Dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
Yeah, dropkick me, Jesus, through the goalposts of life
End over end, neither left, nor the right
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