You might not want to be reminded of this but it’s an election year in the U.S. with the midterms coming up in November. All of the seats in the House and a chunk of the Senate are up for grabs. The presidency is not.
The state of the political union remains shattered, polarized, unproductive and chock full of conspiracy theories, partisan rumors, and short-sighted infighting.
Republicans presumably will make gains, at least in the House, according to traditional political analyses. The party that controls the White House normally loses ground halfway into a first term, and it is widely expected that will happen this year for the Biden administration.
That we are in the beginning of an inflationary period affecting American consumers is a bad sign for Democrats, of course. But the sources of the rising prices — the pandemic‘s government stimulus payments, related supply chain problems, the Ukrainian war-caused high gas prices — would for the most part be happening independent of which party was in power.
When it comes to blame for a problem like inflation, voters are going to point to the incumbents.
That said, the changes in the distribution of Congressional seats will be somewhat limited due to gerrymandering by both parties that has resulted in mostly safe seats that remain reliably Republican or Democratic regardless of current perturbations.
The electorate remains more Democratic than Republican, though not by a wide margin, and in our federal system, there is no national number that actually matters, it’s only state-by-state.
At this point, it’s difficult to see big changes from the results of the last few national elections. It will no doubt be close, whichever party prevails. And even if the GOP grabs the House majority, the Senate may remain with the Democrats.
Biden’s approval deficit, according to the polling site 538, is 51.9-42.3 percent or 9.6, although it is objectively difficult to figure out why this is the case. He is hardly the polarizing, dislikable figure that his predecessor was — if anything, he may be too much a conciliatory force for these fiercely divided times.
It seems like few people are in the mood for bipartisan progress on the massive problems facing our society and humanity. Climate change remains political as opposed to the consensus issue it should be.
Poverty, homelessness, drug use, mental health, inequality, discrimination, etc., remain highly partisan topics, unfortunately.
Covid has faded from view, though it is slightly more frequently in the news today than most days in recent weeks. But the controversy over masking and vaccinations appears to be far less a political hot button issue than in the recent past.
According to Electoral-Vote.com, the battle for control of the Senate remains evenly split between the parties, 50-50. The polling site has Democrats strongly favored to retain 45 seats and barely leading in five. The GOP is rated as strongly controlling 44 seats, with three more likely and three barely in the red column.
It can’t get closer than that. Vice-President Kamala Harris would retain the tiebreaker vote if the split is again 50-50.
Today’s News (63):
Ukraine Says Russia Begins Assault in the East After Raining Missiles Nationwide (NYT)
Forces clash along Ukraine's eastern front line (BBC)
Russian forces tried to push through Ukrainian defences along almost the entire front line in eastern Ukraine, launching what President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the "Battle of the Donbas" - the long-awaited second phase of the war. (Reuters)
VIDEO: Ukrainians to Receive Training on American Artillery, Pentagon Says (AP)
Ukraine Rushes to Evacuate Civilians in East as Russia’s Offensive Pushes Forward (WSJ)
Britain and its allies have resolved to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to counter the Russian assault, UK PM Boris Johnson says (BBC)
Russian forces have seized the city of Kreminna in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the city, the regional governor said. Meanwhile, Russia called on Ukrainian forces and foreign fighters holed up in the Azovstal metallurgical plant in the port city of Mariupol to lay down their arms by noon Moscow time if they wanted to live. (Reuters)
Bleak assessments of the Russian economy clash with Putin’s rosy claims. (NYT)
VIDEO: Explosions Heard at Steel Plant in Besieged Mariupol (Reuters)
Ukraine war: Can India feed the world? (BBC)
Barrage of Russian missile strikes also hit city of Lviv in western Ukraine (WP)
Putin's war has entered what Ukrainian officials called a "new phase," as Russian forces launched full-scale ground offensive to take control of the country’s eastern industrial heartland, the Donbas. Moscow has declared the capture of the Donbas to be its main goal in the war since its attempt to seize the capital, Kyiv, failed. [AP]
As the war moves east, Russia and Ukraine still facing off in Kherson (WP)
Russian invasion upends young, flourishing Ukrainian publishing industry (NPR)
How a Mariupol steel plant became a holdout for the city’s resistance (WP)
In Iran, Russia’s war on Ukraine is a political flash point (AP)
Ukraine crisis raises question: Does food aid go equally to 'Black and white lives'? (NPR)
A charity kitchen in Ukraine linked to chef José Andrés was destroyed by a missile (NPR)
Desperate Afghans Sell Kidneys to Survive — Afghanistan’s deepening humanitarian crisis is fueling a booming trade in human organs. “No father in the world wants to sell his son’s kidney.” (WSJ)
Prominent Afghan high school targeted by deadly morning bombings (WP)
Blasts near Kabul schools kill at least 6 civilians, hurt 17 (AP)
Kabul blasts kill six and wound 20 at boys' school (BBC)
Kabul School Blasts Kill Six as Afghanistan Violence Continues — Explosions at a school in a Shiite neighborhood that killed at least six and wounded more than 11 others was likely carried out by Islamic State, analysts said, showing the militant group’s continued threat despite a monthslong Taliban campaign against it. (WSJ)
A Rising Tally of Lonely Deaths on the Streets — More than ever it has become deadly to be homeless in America, especially for men in their 50s and 60s. (NYT)
Nowhere is the homelessness crisis more acute than in California, where about one in four of the nation’s 500,000 homeless people lives. (Cal Today)
Fresno had one of the biggest rent increases of any U.S. city last year, fueling a homelessness crisis in a city that used to be California’s most affordable. (Guardian)
The U.S. said it will stop carrying out destructive satellite tests. (WP)
A fledgling class of crypto that feasts on risk is outshining a wider market paralyzed by war and inflation. Coins backed by gold are newer variants of 'stablecoins', which are typically pegged to the dollar to tame volatility. The largest, Pax Gold or PAXG, has jumped 7.4% in 2022, while main rival Tether Gold has leapt 8.5%. (Reuters)
Elon Musk Isn’t the First to Want to Buy Twitter — As Elon Musk attempts to buy Twitter, WSJ looks back at Twitter’s past suitors, like Salesforce, Disney and Alphabet. Tech reporter Tim Higgins explains why those past conversations fell through and what’s different this time. (WSJ)
How a love of sci-fi drives Elon Musk and an idea of 'extreme capitalism' (NPR)
A legislative proposal for low-income Californians could increase the renter tax credit for the first time in 40 years. (KQED)
Most major air carriers in the U.S. announced that, effective immediately, they will no longer enforce mask-wearing rules that have been federal requirements on public transportation since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The moves came hours after a federal judge nominated by Donald Trump voided a recently extended mask mandate. Passengers on several airlines tweeted that captains announced the new policy mid-flight and allowed people to remove their masks. [HuffPost]
Baby bust: Pandemic accelerates fall in China’s birth rate (Financial Times)
Stop Saying Vaccines Don’t Work for the Immunocompromised (Atlantic)
Despite effective treatments, HIV drags on. Experts warn COVID may face the same fate (NPR)
As Philadelphia Puts On Masks Again, Other Cities Watch Closely (NYT)
The Chinese city of Shanghai pleaded for public cooperation with a massive new push to test most of the population for COVID as it tries to bring community transmission down to zero after nearly three weeks of lockdown. We look at why President Xi Jinping is sticking with his stance despite anger and economic headwinds. (Reuters)
Moderna says its new 'bivalent' vaccine shows promise against COVID variants (NPR)
Trump Allies Continue Legal Drive to Erase His Loss, Stoking Election Doubts — Fifteen months after they tried and failed to overturn the 2020 election, the same group of lawyers and associates is continuing efforts to “decertify” the vote, feeding a false narrative. (NYT)
With Arizona a Toss-Up, Infighting Reigns Among GOP, Democrats (WSJ)
Mitch McConnell calls Donald Trump's bluff in Alaska (CNN)
Republicans confront (or sidestep) abuse accusations against midterm candidates (NPR)
5 plot twists that could upend the midterms (Politico)
Florida Gov. DeSantis Seeks to End Walt Disney World’s Special Tax District (WSJ)
Kimberly Guilfoyle, the fiancée of former President Donald Trump’s eldest son, met with the House committee investigating the U.S. Capitol insurrection Monday — more than a month after she abruptly ended a voluntary interview with lawmakers. Guilfoyle spoke at the rally former President Donald Trump held on the White House Ellipse on Jan. 6, 2021, before the riot at the Capitol aimed at overturning Trump’s election loss. [AP]
In a major blow, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) lost a bid to block a constitutional challenge to her reelection over her support for last year’s U.S. Capitol riot. U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg of the Northern District of Georgia denied Greene’s request for a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order, ruling Greene had failed to meet the “burden of persuasion." [HuffPost]
How Orwell Diagnosed Democrats’ Culture War Problem Decades Ago (Politico)
Republicans are overreaching in the culture war (Financial Times)
California gives rivers more room to flow to stem flood risk (AP)
The FDA is investigating whether Lucky Charms is making people sick. (WP)
Joaquin Ciria has spent 31 years in prison for a San Francisco murder he insists he didn't commit. Now, after a campaign by District Attorney Chesa Boudin and San Francisco’s Innocence Commission, a judge has re-examined Ciria’s conviction and ruled that he will walk free. The ruling makes the San Francisco D.A.'s Office just the second in the Bay Area to help clear a person's record with its version of a conviction review unit, Joshua Sharpe writes. Read more. (SFC)
World's first electric-powered tanker to go into service in Tokyo Bay (NHK)
Killers confronted: humpback whale turns on orca pod in rare encounter (Guardian)
NASA discovers rapidly growing black hole — a "missing link" connecting the origins of the universe that was hiding in plain sight (CBS)
Jupiter’s moon Europa may have water where life could exist, say scientists (Guardian)
NASA advisers call for a visit to Uranus, plus more science during moon landings (NPR)
Study: Best Method Of Surviving Layoffs Remains Playing Dead As HR Rounds Corner (The Onion)
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