Almost lost in the shadows of the Russian-Ukrainian War, a very serious crisis has been brewing between the U.S. and China.
It’s over Taiwan, a small country consisting of 168 disputed islands sitting at the intersection of the East and South China Seas in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, with China to the northwest, Japan to the northeast, and the Philippines to the south.
When I visited Taiwan on a reporting trip in the late 1980s, I found it to be a beautiful green, hilly paradise with a heavily industrialized section around Taipei, where a dense population exhibited a restless, palpable democratic spirit. Much like the Hong Kong of that era, it offered a sense of what greater China might be like if the Communist Party should ever fall from power.
At the time, I was investigating industrial safety issues for my book “The Bhopal Syndrome.” My host group had sent a charming young translator named Cassie to accompany me as I traveled from place to place around the country. She met me at the airport.
She was naive, sweet, smart and tough, inexperienced but determined, and a committed environmentalist. We quickly became friends and we talked late into the nights over what were probably her first glasses of wine. She explained that her dream was to leave Taiwan to study in America.
As it turned out, Cassie’s translation services were rarely required, because almost everybody I interviewed spoke reasonably good English.
We met with dozens of scientists, regulators, plant personnel, and activists to discuss the risks of industrial accidents like the one that had happened at Bhopal in India.
In the process, I discovered that when Taiwanese residents living near chemical plants grew concerned about safety, they would storm the plants in protest, demanding answers. It was hard to imagine that happening in China or even back home in the States. That’s what I mean about their democratic spirit. The Taiwanese people were feisty. And fiercely independent.
They were inspiring.
On our last night in Taipei, I stayed at a local YMCA. Cassie came to say goodbye, and we hugged. As I watched her walk away, in a free flat-footed way, I hoped that her dreams would come true.
***
In the years since my one visit to Taiwan, the geopolitical forces surrounding the tiny country have escalated dangerously.
Recently, as China has grown to challenge the U.S. economically and militarily, the tensions over Taiwan have reached the point that an actual war seems possible. In that context, Nancy Pelosi’s planned visit this week is either a courageous statement about U.S. resolve to stand behind Taiwan’s independence or a reckless step risking dire consequences.
I don’t know which is true, but this week seems like a critical moment.
***
P.S. Cassie eventually made it to the U.S. to study at a college in Texas. She wrote me a letter saying she was happy that “a person like you exists in this world.” The feeling was mutual.
***
Now for some math: I have now played Wordle 200 times and deduced the word 196 of those times (98%). I’ve never guessed the word on my first try but I’ve succeeded 9 times (4.5% ) on the second try, 50 times (25%) on the third try, 83 times (41.5%) on the fourth try, 45 times (22.5% ) on the fifth try, and 9 times (4.5%) on the sixth and last try. That leaves my failure rate at 2%.
Now if that could only somehow translate that into how I do in real life…
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