Sunday, October 30, 2022

2024

This week, Joe Biden made a verbal slip he’s made before when he referred to the “CEOs of countries.” He meant “companies,” of course, and soon after the gaffe he moved his hand toward his mouth, in a familiar and revealing gesture for a man who has always had a speech problem.

None of this would matter, frankly, but Biden will be 80 years old in a few weeks and he’ll turn 82 by the time of the 2024 election results are clear. So his frailties matter. Accordingly, Democrats have begun a whisper campaign about an alternative candidate. That campaign will no doubt intensify after the party loses ground in the midterm elections on November 8th, which now seems inevitable.

Meanwhile, the Republicans continue to have a giant Trump problem. The former president is popular with the base but would almost certainly lose if he ran again. In addition, he may not get the chance to run, given the multiple investigations that could well yield criminal charges against him well before 2024.

So what about the V-P candidates from 2020? Kamala Harris has had a notably undistinguished term as vice-president and is reportedly not on good terms with Biden. It’s hard to imagine her as a successful candidate for president.

Mike Pence has never broken through as a leading candidate for Republicans and it’s equally hard to imagine him as a successful candidate for president.

There is no one among the Congressional leadership who is a viable candidate in either party, IMHO. Liz Cheney is courageous, principled and independent, but she has no organization behind her.

That leaves the two strongest governors — Democrat Gavin Newsom in California and Republican Ron DeSantis of Florida — as the leading names to run and both are acting like they know that. Accordingly, they are positioning themselves as the standard-bearers for their parties.

That is the race I expect to materialize.

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