Long Shot

 It may be hazardous, from a reputational perspective, to issue political predictions this early in an election year, but it can be fun to do so.

So here goes.

Against all odds and the polls to date, I don’t think a Biden-Trump rematch is going to happen. Both candidates are simply too old and have too many negatives, from my perspective, to make it to the finish line.

Why do I think that?

First, on the Republican side, Trump at the moment is the overwhelming favorite to amass enough delegates in the early state primaries to knock his competitors out of contention as soon as later this month.

He’ll win the Iowa caucuses on Monday; that seems certain. But under my alternative scenario, Nikki Haley will come in second and then mount a serious challenge to Trump in the New Hampshire primary, perhaps even winning it.

Next the battle for delegates moves to South Carolina, Haley’s home state. It’s not hard to imagine a Haley surge that brings her into an essentially even position with Trump after those tree contests.

If so, that would pierce Trump’s “inevitability” advantage, and from there on, the race could be back-and-forth until the national convention.

During that period, Trump’s numerous legal battles may gradually sap his support, not from his base, but from the moderate elements that still exist in the Republican Party, plus among independent voters.

It is also possible that Trump would be convicted in one or more of the Jan. 6th-related cases, and polling indicates that such a conviction would drain away a small but significant slice of his support.

Remember that the outcome of the election in November will revolve around the decisions of perhaps 5 percent of the electorate in perhaps six swing states. If Trump stumbles along the lines I outlined above, he may lose his appeal as the party’s strongest candidate, again assuming that Haley can come along quickly.

Of course that is a huge assumption because to date she has been a terrible candidate, hardly ready for prime time. She’ll need to be able to answer basic questions, like what caused the Civil War, to have any shot at all. But better media training could make a difference.

Of course this is all conjecture, which is fun, so let’s keep going.

On the Democratic side, it has become clear that Biden’s main motivation to stand for re-election is to prevent Trump from returning to office. But Biden’s approval ratings are awful and his advanced age is an issue that he can do nothing about.

He looks and sounds old, walks extremely tentatively, which can be an indicator of impending dementia, and stumbles verbally while speaking. My guess is he is more ambivalent about running than he has admitted to date, and his family members probably are too.

If Trump is not going to be the GOP nominee, that provides the perfect excuse for Biden to step aside. The problem for Democrats with this scenario, is that Vice-President Harris has not yet shown that she can be a strong candidate on her own.

So, under the circumstances, Democrats might well turn to one of their youngish state governors, like Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or Gavin Newsom of California.

Or, according to persistent whispers among party insiders, Andy Beshear of Kentucky. I have no idea what kind of candidate he would be nationally but he sure is popular as the blue governor in a deeply red state.

There are perfectly good reasons both parties often select governors from southern and border states as their candidate. First and foremost they neutralize the red-blue divide for Democrats (think Carter and Clinton); or for the Republicans, solidify the base (think George W. Bush).

So there you have it — my prediction. Haley vs. Beshear.

A long shot? For sure. But don’t be surprised if it ends up being our choice come this November. And you heard it here. 

HEADLINES:

• Iran Wins With US Airstrikes on Houthis in Yemen (Bloomberg)

• The U.S.'s military strike on Yemeni Houthis is deeply misguided (MSNBC)

• US attacks in Yemen sharpen Biden’s military and political dilemmas (CNN)

• Looming Starvation in Gaza Shows Resurgence of Civilian Sieges in Warfare (NYT)

• Israel says South Africa distorting the truth in ICJ genocide case (BBC)

• Ukraine, Britain announce security agreement during Kyiv visit by PM Sunak (Al Jazeera)

• Tens of thousands of opposition supporters massed outside Poland's parliament to protest against the new government's changes to state media and the imprisonment of two former ministers convicted of abuse of power. (Reuters)

• ‘Brutal’ Arctic blast expected to bring frigid temperatures to North America (Guardian)

• In the first few days of this year, lawmakers in several states have already continued their assault on progressive ideals — an escalation of the culture wars that have become central to the GOP agenda. But polling shows these policies aren't popular, HuffPost's Nathalie Baptiste reports. [HuffPost]

• Winter storm disrupts Trump, DeSantis and Haley events in Iowa (NBC)

• Worried about losing in 2024, Iowa’s Republican voters are less interested in talking about abortion (AP)

• Two Iowa counties an hour apart show America’s growing political divide (WP)

• How the Pros Think the Iowa Caucuses Will Shake Out (Politico Mag)

• Trump’s Fraud Trial Draws to an End With Closing Arguments (NYT)

• Former President Donald Trump is going all in on his new election-related conspiracy theory: That President Joe Biden has personally orchestrated almost all his legal problems. Even, apparently, the state-level cases. [HuffPost]

• Jan. 6 ‘hostage’ comments fuel House GOP divisions in tough election year (WP)

• Top US Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said he was taking the first procedural step toward passing a stopgap funding bill to avert a partial government shutdown starting late next week, as House Republicans again found themselves in the midst of a possible revolt over spending. (Reuters)

• Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said his state continued to use “every tool” available to stop migration along its border with Mexico but added that the only thing his officers weren’t doing was “shooting people who come across the border, because, of course, the Biden administration would charge us with murder.” [HuffPost]

• Hunter Biden pleaded not guilty to federal tax charges filed after the collapse of a plea deal that could have spared him the spectacle of a criminal trial during the 2024 campaign. [AP]

• Justice Department to pursue death penalty against Buffalo supermarket shooter Payton Gendron (ABC)

• Same-sex union question is fracturing major Christian denominations (AP)

• Substack’s woes deepen as tech blog leaves over Nazi content (WP)

• Archeologists uncover "lost valley" of ancient cities in the Amazon rainforest (CBS)

• Are fingerprints unique? Not really, AI-based study finds (CNN)

• AI Chatbots Are Here to Stay. Learn How They Can Work for You (CNET)

• Open-Source AI Is Uniquely Dangerous (IEEE Spectrum)

• NYT Games Adds Feature That Sends Reporter To Player’s House For Round Of Scrabble (The Onion)