Heading into Tuesday’s primary elections in my original home state, Michigan, both parties were watching for early clues of what could happen in the general election in November.
They weren’t disappointed.
Michigan is a key battleground state that has flip-flopped between Trump and Biden the past two cycles. Also, it presents a demographer’s dream laboratory for the trends shaping the upper Midwest rust belt states.
Moderate Republicans and Independents were watching how much Nikki Haley could cut into Donald Trump’s commanding lead. Suburban women could lead the way in that. Autoworkers are another key group that Trump hopes to attract.
As returns slowly came in, it appeared that Haley would win over a quarter (between 26-27 percent) of the GOP vote, despite hardly campaigning in Michigan at all. That is a bright red flashing light for the Republicans in November because that is potentially a strong anti-Trump minority among voters he will need to convert to beat Biden.
Democrats were watching how many “uncommitted” votes might tarnish Joe Biden’s victory. The state’s influential Arab-American and Muslim-American minorities are angry about Biden’s stance in the Israel-Hamas war and were expected to choose uncommitted as a protest vote against that policy.
As the returns trickled in, the uncommitted vote accounted for just over 13 percent of the Democratic total. That is a bright yellow flashing light for the Democrats, not yet red. that’s because Biden has plenty of time to do something about it, i.e., force an end to the war in Gaza.
But Biden has other problems. Younger voters in the state and elsewhere in great numbers are also opposed to the war, specifically Israel’s unrestrained bombing of Palestinian civilians in its search for Hamas fighters.
So enthusiasm or the lack thereof among young voters could be a factor. Turnout among black voters also is of major concern to Democrats in Michigan.
It will take a while for deeper analysis of all of these factors. As for an initial take on the relative risk to the two front-runners, I would just say look at the math. Trump faces potentially a 26 percent problem; Biden potentially a 13 percent problem.
Then again, it’s a long time until November.
HEADLINES:
Joe Biden wins Michigan primary despite sizeable Gaza protest vote; Donald Trump easily wins Michigan primary over Nikki Haley (BBC)
Oil prices rise as market monitors Gaza cease-fire talks, OPEC production cuts (CNBC)
The War in Gaza Turned This Longtime Michigan Democrat Against Biden (NYT)
Jon Stewart says he has a solution to the Gaza conflict (Business Insider)
Whitmer navigates Michigan ‘minefield’ between Biden and Arab Americans (WP)
Biden meets with congressional leaders ahead of government shutdown deadline (NBC)
Senate GOP fears Speaker Johnson headed toward shutdown wreck (The Hill)
Fertility expert says Alabama's court ruling on embryos is zero science and all politics (CNN)
Star Witness In Fani Willis Hearing Apparently Backtracks—Says He Was ‘Speculating’ About Relationship Start (Forbes)
Silent brain changes precede Alzheimer’s. Researchers have new clues about which ones come first (AP)
Google Has Changed (TNR)
“The Freaks Came Out to Write” review – how the Village Voice changed American journalism (Guardian)
The San Francisco hotel that Hunter S. Thompson feared, loathed and loved (SFGate)
San Francisco Macy’s to close in devastating blow to downtown (SFC)
Vice.com shutters & BuzzFeed sells Complex – what explains the death of millennial media? (The Drum)
As Sports Illustrated sputters, its owners throw a party for ‘the brand’ (WP)
Japan births hit record low and population down by largest margin in 2023 (Japan Times)
Behind the Curtain: AI's doom or boom (Axios)
Klarna says its AI assistant does the work of 700 people after it laid off 700 people (Fast Company)
OpenAI says New York Times 'hacked' ChatGPT to build copyright lawsuit (Guardian)
Clarence Thomas Announces 50% Discount On All Favorable Rulings (The Onion)
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