One of the main things analysts, pundits and other commentators rely on for their opinions is precedent, especially when it comes to politics. They routinely turn to the past when making predictions.
And that is precisely what makes the 2024 presidential election so difficult to analyze. We’ve never before had a situation like the present one.
The incumbent President is under extreme pressure to withdraw from the race — long after he sewed up enough delegates to win his party’s nomination.
Meanwhile, his opponent from the other party just escaped an assassination attempt.
In that context, Donald Trump also just missed a major opportunity — to present himself as a unifying figure at a time of deep division and discord. But by departing from the script at his acceptance speech to return to the polarizing figure promoting resentment against the other side he has always been he blew his chance.
In the process, he may have opened the door for Democrats to retain the White House. Assuming Biden withdraws soon, and that he throws his support and his delegates to Vice-President Kamala Harris, she would become the nominee.
Then, if she chose Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as her running mate, Trump would confront an all-female ticket that might be able to exploit his major electoral weakness, which is with suburban women voters in the swing states.
Such an election face-off would be decided by a slim section of the electorate, and that demographic sliver would be trending Democratic.
But if the all-women ticket is a step too far into the unknown for the Democrats, there are men — Josh Shapiro, Mark Kelly —who could make good V-P candidates as well. And there’s the further possibility that someone other than Harris ends up at the head of the ticket, perhaps Shapiro, Kelly or Whitmer.
Again, there’s no precedent for any of these scenarios and that’s what makes them exciting and unpredictable.
We’re entering uncharted territory.
HEADLINES:
People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race (NYT)
Top Democrats Prepare for Campaign Without Biden (WSJ)
‘Our Nation Is Not Well’: Voters Fear What Could Happen Next (NYT)
The Imperial Presidency Unleashed — How the Supreme Court Eliminated the Last Remaining Checks on Executive Power (Foreign Affairs)
Trump v. U.S.: Has the Supreme Court Made the Presidency More Dangerous? (CFR)
How Trump’s Security Failed to Stop an Assassination Attempt (NYT)
Widespread tech outage disrupts flights and companies worldwide (AP)
How software errors melted down the world’s computer systems (WP)
Russian court sentences U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich to 16 years in prison (NPR)
Long before his arrest, US reporter lamented that many friends in Russia were being locked up (AP)
Israeli settlements violate international law, U.N.'s top court says in a landmark opinion (NBC)
Japan asks young people why they are not marrying amid population crisis (Guardian)
Lonely Singles Seek Love in Government Courtship Services (WSJ)
The Blurred Reality of AI’s ‘Human-Washing’ (Wired)
For The Love Of AI (Forbes)
Figure AI Humanoid Robots Start Functioning at BMW Factories (AIM)
Archaeologists Celebrate After Uncovering Ancient Certificate Congratulating Them For Finding All The Stuff (The Onion)
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