When it comes to national political journalists who can be trusted to always get things right, Ron Brownstein has long been up near the top of my personal list.
He also was the first to come up with the term “blue wall” to describe the three rust-belt states, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that tend to vote as a bloc. In recent election cycles, that bloc has determined who gets elected President.
They went narrowly for Trump in 2016, for Biden narrowly in 2020, and this year they all seem very narrowly divided once again.
To understand in detail the dynamics at play in the three states this time around, I strongly recommend Brownstein’s latest piece for CNN. He points out that the states remain so similar in their demographics, economics and the issues that concern their voters that they can almost be considered as one state, which he playfully calls “Mi-Pa-Wi.” That has a perhaps fittingly Native American ring to it.
In order to dig into the latest electoral trends in Mi-Pa-Wi, I of course went through the most recent polls at 538. There I found what may tentatively considered good news emerging for Kamala Harris.
As of this morning, she leads Trump by 3 points in Wisconsin, 1.8 points in Michigan, and 0.8 points in Pennsylvania, and those leads have all increased in recent days.
It’s still early but if Harris wins Mi-Pa-Wi plus the “blue dot” district in Nebraska, she will have the 270 electoral votes needed to become President.
P.S. The first and only time I remember meeting Brownstein in person was when he stopped by HotWired in 1996. We had an extended conversation about how technology was changing media, and I was impressed by his unbiased, analytical way of thinking.
HEADLINES:
Why these three states are the most consistent tipping point in American politics (CNN)
Trump, Outrage and the Modern Era of Political Violence (NYT)
Trump’s golf outings have long concerned Secret Service (WP)
Overseas threats hit the Ohio city where Trump and Vance lied about Haitians eating pets (AP)
Laura Loomer Is Where Republicans Draw the Line (Atlantic)
The first graders who survived Sandy Hook will vote in their first presidential election (NBC)
Election officials prepare for threats with panic buttons and bulletproof glass (AP)
What to know about the growth of the Haitian American community in the U.S. (Axios)
Senate Republicans block IVF bill, as Democrats elevate issue ahead of November election (NPR)
Judge orders Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs jailed in sex trafficking and racketeering charges (AP)
How Did Thousands of Pagers Used by Hezbollah Explode at the Same Time? (WSJ)
Hezbollah vows to punish Israel after pager explosions across Lebanon (Reuters)
Vets helping Ukraine worry Trump assassination attempt suspect will hurt their cause (NPR)
Israeli Defense Minister Tells U.S. Military Action Against Hezbollah Is Needed (NYT)
Democracy declined for 8th straight year around the globe, institute finds (AP)
US economy on solid ground as retail sales surprise on the upside (Reuters)
Scientists just figured out how many chemicals enter our bodies from food packaging (WP)
Ban warnings fly as users dare to probe the “thoughts” of OpenAI’s latest model (ArsTechnica)
OpenAI says the latest ChatGPT can ‘think’ – and I have thoughts (Guardian)
Why OpenAI’s new model is such a big deal (Technology Review)
OpenAI’s new model is better at reasoning and, occasionally, deceiving (Verge)
Our digital lives need massive data centers. Here’s what goes on inside of them. (WP)
Increasingly Paranoid Campbell’s Begins Stockpiling All Its Soup To Prepare For Doomsday (The Onion)
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