Well, it’s gotten even closer.
For those who hoped the Presidential race would be less of a nail-biter than it was projected to be a week ago, those wishes did not materialize.
When I crunched the numbers a week ago, it looked like the margin of victory separating the two candidates in the all-important seven swing states would be about 440,000 votes out of the 162 million expected to be cast nationally.
That was 0.0027.
As of this morning, I calculate the number to be 368,000 votes or only 0.0023. That is just under one-quarter of one percent.
While it’s hard to believe that the electorate could be that evenly divided, math doesn’t lie.
Here’s how the seven swing states look to end up with the margin of votes in parenthesis:
Arizona (Trump +45,800)
Georgia (Trump +67,600)
Michigan (Harris +92,200)
Nevada (Harris +14,600)
North Carolina (Trump +45,900)
Pennsylvania (Harris +43,300)
Wisconsin (Harris +58,300)
If we consider the swing states as a bloc, the math becomes even more ridiculous. These states represent just under 20 percent of the voting population nationally. Inside that bloc, Harris leads Trump by 49,100 votes or a minuscule 0.0003 percent of the national electorate. That’s smaller than the crescent of your little toenail when you trim your nails.
If these projections hold, Harris will win in the Electoral College by a margin of 276-262. Of course when it comes to the popular vote, she is headed for a mini-landslide victory of over 4.2 million votes.
(Note on methodology: I took the vote totals in each state in 2020, increased them by four percent to account for population growth and then used 538’s polls as of this morning to calculate the number of votes in each state,)
HEADLINES:
Pence and Trump’s frayed relationship leading up to Jan. 6 insurrection on full display in latest special counsel filing (CNN)
Prosecutors in the Jan. 6-related case against former President Donald Trump laid out the evidence against him in a now-unsealed 165-page brief. It revealed that, when told then-Vice President Mike Pence had to be evacuated from the Senate on Jan. 6, 2021, Trump responded: "So what?" [HuffPost]
Trump made a telling comment before Jan. 6, and other takeaways from Jack Smith’s big new filing (WP)
Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats worry that Harris remains ill-defined in swing state (AP)
Harris holds a 66-electoral-vote lead over Trump, calculates prominent data scientist (Fortune)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 4 New National Surveys—Amid Virtual Tie In Swing States (Forbes)
Trump falsely claimed that 13,000 migrant murderers are “on the loose” (WP)
Former first lady Melania Trump says she supports a woman's right to have control over her own body in her upcoming memoir, according to The Guardian. Her stance is a stark contrast to that of her husband. [HuffPost]
Hurricane Helene was America’s deadliest storm in nearly two decades (Economist)
Hurricane Helene: over 200 dead as search for missing people continues (Guardian)
Without immigrants, America's job growth would have stalled (NPR)
Immigrants are part of the solution, not the problem (The Hill)
The making of an alleged school shooter: Missed warnings and years of neglect (WP)
US discusses strikes on Iran oil sites as Israel presses Lebanon offensive (Reuters)
U.S. crude oil jumps as Biden comments on possible Israel retaliation against Iran (CNBC)
How Joe Biden lost his grip on Israel’s war for ‘total victory’ in Gaza (WP)
Thousands of shipping containers have been lost at sea. What happens when they burst open? (AP)
When Artists Found Beauty in London’s Toxic Fog (NYT)
Treasure hunter finally finds Golden Owl after decades (BBC)
A divorced couple cohabitated during the pandemic — and fell back in love (WP)
Ants learned to farm fungi during a mass extinction (Ars Technica)
OpenAI Gets $4 Billion in Credit on Top of $6.6 Billion Fundraise (Bloomberg)
Ask questions in new ways with AI in Search (Google)
Three Mile Island owner seeks taxpayer backing for Microsoft AI deal (WP)
Heartbroken Trump Clutches Limp Campaign Lawn Sign Washed Away In Flood (The Onion)
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