When it comes to politics or poker, Nate Silver has a pretty good track record. so his latest post here on Substack definitely caught my eye: “Democrats can win the redistricting war.”
I looked through his math at the bottom of the post, but I’m sure enough of my data analysis skills to comment on that, so I’m going to take his word on the numbers.
The main point he makes is for Democrats to effectively compete with the Trump-led Republican gerrymandering efforts, they’re going to have to play hardball.
That’s exactly what Gavin Newsom is doing with the proposition he has put on the November ballot in California. His move is in direct response to the GOP’s effort to squeeze up to five more House seats out of Texas.
Moral purists will argue Newsom should not sink to Trump’s level in the dirty business of redrawing district maps, but that would be, IMHO, the equivalent of giving into a bully on the playground.
If Silver’s math is right, and I bet it is, the Democrats have more to gain from a fight to the bottom in the House than Republicans.
Taking the high ground is my preferred choice under normal circumstances but nothing about this moment is normal.
In Trump we have a tyrant, a man who will take the all the power he can get unless he is stopped. The California proposition is one way we can put up a roadblock to Trump’s push for an authoritarian state.
HEADLINES:
Trump vs. Pritzker: A political feud that could trigger a major national crisis (CNN)
Trump Removes Lisa Cook From Federal Reserve Board (NYT)
Abrego Garcia fights deportation after ICE arrest (The Hill)
Some National Guard units in Washington, D.C., now carry firearms in escalation of Trump deployment (AP)
Florida Cops Turn Traffic Stops Into Deportations (WSJ)
Trump signs executive order targeting American flag burning (Axios)
Trump signs orders aimed at ending cashless bail policies (Reuters)
FEMA staff warn Trump officials’ actions risk a Katrina-level disaster (WP)
Al Jazeera’s Salama among five Gaza journalists killed in Israeli attack (Al Jazeera)
Mariam Dagga, AP freelance journalist in Gaza, was killed by an Israeli strike (AP)
South Korea's Lee at White House for talks after Trump blasts the US ally (Reuters)
Tariffs push small and midsize toy companies into survival mode (WP)
Famed economist Paul Krugman argued in his Substack newsletter published on Sunday, it’s “likely” the U.S. “would be heading into a recession” right now, were it not for the massive financial investment that is currently being made in the development of artificial intelligence. If “the AI boom goes bust,” he cautioned, “the odds are high that the US economy will be plunged into a recession.” [HuffPost]
Che Ahn Is Running for Governor of California. His Mission? Spiritual Warfare & Dominion. (Daily Kos)
‘We’re making history’: Rosies answer the call to preserve history (East Bay Times)
What Happened When Mark Zuckerberg Moved In Next Door (NYT)
How the Richest People in America Avoid Paying Taxes (Atlantic)
Supreme Court Ruling Has ‘Bleak Implications’ for Researchers (Inside Higher Ed)
Critics called out Trump on Sunday after he launched attacks on the media in posts on his Truth Social platform, saying ABC and NBC should “lose their license” or “pay up BIG.” Trump wrote, “Except what is written and broadcast in the Fake News, I now have the highest poll numbers I’ve ever had, some in the 60’s and even 70’s.” None of the polls tracked by RealClearPolling show Trump with anything close to those numbers. He’s 7.8 percentage points underwater on average. [HuffPost]
A reality check for NPR stations in Trump country (WP)
China's new mega dam triggers fears of a water war in India. (Reuters)
The A.I.-Profits Drought and the Lessons of History (New Yorker)
This new delivery robot will bring the entire grocery store to you (Verge)
Do AI Companies Actually Care About America? (Atlantic)
Can the news industry stop AI theft? It might be a long shot. (WP)
Overwhelmed Archaeologists Struggling To Keep Pace With Glut Of Early Humans Thawed Out By Climate Change (The Onion)
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