Friday, March 27, 2026

All Other Things

For one semester at the University of Michigan I was an Econ major, but I got hung up on the Latin phrase meaning “all other things being equal,” which kept showing up in every economic model we studied.

When I somewhat rebelliously wrote a paper arguing that in real life all other things never stay equal, my professor was not amused and gave me a D. That was the end of my would-be major in economics.

I understood, of course, the concept of modeling and the need to control for random factors that could affect the outcome, since I’d also been a math major for a minute. But similar concerns about reality’s messiness compared to math’s formulaic purity derailed my academic trajectory in that subject as well. Quod Erat Demonstrandum if you will.

In the end, I found that I was better suited to working with words, so it was journalism for me, which of course is completely obsessed with the real world and all of its messiness. But wouldn’t you know it, the two subjects that have come up over and over again in my journalism career are economics and math.

Both are necessary today when trying to understand what is happening with Trump’s chaotic foreign adventurism. He tries to bully countries he considers weaker, but that will only backfire in the end. He has got both the math and the economics of what he is doing wrong.

His back and forth statements on the Iran War seem to be mainly about controlling the world’s oil. So was his adventurism in Venezuela and his future plan for Cuba. But the damage from his bombings to critical infrastructure in the Middle East will destabilize the energy markets for many months (maybe years) to come.

Meanwhile, his poll numbers continue to plummet.

Of this I am certain: all other things are most definitely not equal out there in the global economy. I may have gotten a D in Econ for telling the truth but Trump gets an F for lying.

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Thursday, March 26, 2026

Doubling

(From 2007)

There’s restlessness to the air tonight. The weather here is unsettled. As usual, the beginning of my workweek was intense. If weeks had an emotional cycle, Mondays often are times of uncertainty. By the end of the week, Fridays, I usually feel highly energized, engaged by my work, hopeful about the future.

But Mondays are times when problems can seem suddenly overwhelming, when my chosen path in life -- to swim uphill -- just requires more energy that I can muster.

At such times, my mind tends to revert to some very old patterns, most of them mathematical. My childhood propensity, whenever I felt anxious, to start doubling numbers (i.e., 1, 2, 4 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192, 16384, 32768, 65536 -- that’s usually as far as I could go at age 8 without hesitating), has recently returned to haunt me as I drive alone along the highway, much to my chagrin.

I thought I’d eliminated this particular ghost over a decade ago.

Usually, something in my universe is not quite right; otherwise my mind doesn’t race away into this mathematical wasteland -- this hopeless attempt to control the uncontrollable. Somehow the center of balance in my world has suddenly shifted.

What’s disconcerting is how I know these things without knowing anything about the particulars. Sometimes, I find out a detail that helps justify these distractions; other times, the person or factor responsible chooses to remain silent, leaving me to no choice but these crazy calculations, which never end and lead to no conclusion.

My dear Chinese friend invited me to a ramen restaurant in San Mateo tonight, and somehow we revealed our inner calculation nightmares to each other. She gave mine a name (Doubling) and then discussed hers. She squares numbers to rectify her proclivity, even after eight years in this country, to translate miles back to kilometers, and Fahrenheit back to Celsius.

After thinking it through, maybe I’ll adopt her particular mathematical obsession in place of my own. I think I like hers better; it’s more practical. She may move to the Bay Area this summer, and if so, I extracted a promise that she will teach me, at long last, the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus, crashing against which ended all notions that I might be math major four decades ago.

Ramen took me back to Koenji, Japan, where I rather wish I was right now. The weather here is so unsettling; the skies are alternating dark and light; an uneasy wind blows. I wish I knew why I am so uncomfortable in my own skin tonight.

My Grandma believed she was psychic, and most of the rest of us believed her. I have always hoped I am too, though actually I don’t want to be. I hate premonitions,, when they come to me, and when they turn out to be correct.

But not always are they real.

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Wednesday, March 25, 2026

My Tax Auditor at First Sight

The first time I went to the local IRS waiting room to meet the person who would be auditing me I imagined my auditor would be a monster, someone like George Harrison’s “Taxman.”

However, my actual auditor turned out to be a lovely young woman fresh out of college and more than willing to share with me the ins and outs of the auditing process.

Over the course of that first audit, which lasted several weeks, I gradually learned how to comply with the arcane rules I had clearly violated while trying to juggle a full-time job, two part-time projects and some random income as a freelance writer.

One of my main problems was that I couldn’t persuade her that my workspace was a legitimate home office, because it was also used as the kitchen, dining room, and playroom by my three young children.

Also, I had not kept a written record of my many lunches and business meetings or of my frequent travel as I juggled work assignments. The agency clearly had not yet figured out how to handle a multitasker, as the word had only originated recently (1966) and was not yet commonly applied to human beings.

By the end of that first audit, my auditor ruled that I owed Uncle Sam enough in additional taxes and penalties that it automatically triggered audits for the two subsequent tax years, focusing on the same set of issues.

But I wasn’t about to suffer the same fate two times in a row, let alone three. Besides, I had come to like my auditor and as we parted after that first go-around, she told me,”You know, you can request me to be your auditor for the next one if you want to, you have a right to do that.”

So when I showed up for my second audit, I requested to be assigned the same auditor and the IRS granted my request. This time, I showed up with a complete printed register of all of my lunches and meetings, tons of receipts (all numbered consistent with the register), and a more convincing argument that my home office was legit as it now consisted of a desk in the corner of my bedroom.

There were no toys or dinner plates on my desk when the auditor paid her visit for the mandatory inspection, but there was a plate of cookies.

That second audit ended much better -- in a virtual tie -- I didn’t owe the IRS anything beyond what I had paid when I filed my tax return.

In due time the third audit commenced. By now, I was determined to reclaim some of the money confiscated by the agency back in that first audit. I again requested the same auditor. By now I looked forward to renewing our acquaintance and continuing to demonstrate that I was a fast learner.

She seemed pleased to see me again too. This time around we had long conversations during which she told me about her dream to get out of the huge, frustrating government bureaucracy and get a job at one of the Big Six accounting firms.

We’d become friends by now, and our conversations were distracting enough that she only had time to give a cursory check of the impressive documentation I had prepared of my business meals and meetings, global travel, and an extensively outfitted home office that transformed what had previously been my bedroom into a distinctly professional workspace.

In the end, my lovely auditor gave me some welcome news: My arguments and documentation were persuasive. The IRS would be issuing me a refund -- almost identical to the excess taxes, penalties and fees assessed me back in the first year of our auditing relationship.

So in the end it was one win for the IRS, one win for me, and one draw. Net-net, nothing was lost, nothing was gained, except one new friend.

And I had even developed a bit of a crush on my IRS auditor. Enough so that I almost wished that I could be audited by her again.

Almost.

HEADLINES:

  • Florida Democrats Win Special Election in Mar-a-Lago’s District (NYT)

  • Trump news at a glance: president touts ‘strong talks’ with Iran that Iran says have not happened (Guardian)

  • Around 2,000 U.S. Paratroopers to Be Sent to the Middle East (NYT)

  • U.S. awaits Iran’s response on peace summit as Israel watches warily (Axios)

  • The Back-Channel Diplomacy Behind Trump’s U-Turn on Iran (WSJ)

  • Less than 48 hours before the US-Israeli strike on Iran began, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone to President Donald Trump about the reasons for launching the kind of complex, far-off war the American leader once had campaigned against. Read our exclusive. (Reuters)

  • Pentagon Adopts New Limits for Journalists After Court Loss (NYT)

  • GOP senators see path to ending DHS shutdown after Trump meeting (Politico)

  • Afghanistan Frees American Detainee Amid Mounting U.S. Pressure (NYT)

  • Everyone but Trump Understands What He’s Done (Atlantic)

  • Prosecutor admits government lacks evidence of misconduct by Fed chair (WP)

  • Gabbard plans to shift coveted, CIA-backed high-tech fund to her office (Politico)

  • How to get Big Tech to pay your energy bills (WP)

  • A Difficult Question for Teachers: What to Say About Cesar Chavez? (NYT)

  • There Were Warnings (Atlantic)

  • CERN hails test on transporting antimatter as a scientific success (AP)

  • Pakistan Mulls Over Ramping Up Its Media Narrative War (TechJuice)

  • Ukraine Spent Big to Shield Energy Industry From Drones. Is the Mideast Next? (NYT)

  • Thousands of people are selling their identities to train AI – but at what cost? (Guardian)

  • Silicon Valley airport tests ‘José,’ an AI-powered robot to ease travel snarls (BI)

  • ICE Agents Swab Passengers’ Hands To Test For Immigrant Residue (Onion)

 

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Tuesday, March 24, 2026

CIR's First Home

When we opened up the Center for Investigative Reporting in 1977, our office suite was on the top floor of the magnificent old Broadway Building in downtown Oakland.

There was a definite 1930s feel to the place, as if we were private detectives from a bygone era. Early visitors fed that impression, including a woman who wanted us to follow her husband because she suspected he was cheating.

(We politely declined.)

Instead, we did long stories about corporate crime, environmental degradation, political corruption and other journalistic topics.

When I recently posted about CIR’s origin — “49 Years Ago: CIR is Born” — I didn’t have a photo of the headquarters building. I also made a math error in that post, originally labeling it 50 years, which I rapidly corrected on Substack. That math error is a first for me and this newsletter.

One of my co-founders, Dan Noyes, kindly sent me this old photo, so this gives me the chance to update that post and correct the record on both counts.

Now on to the news...

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Monday, March 23, 2026

Wisdom and Games

The weather out here got too hot for a few days but has since retreated into a more pleasant spring season. That may seem to be a mundane observation to start a conversation with, but one thing I noticed years ago that was the best topic to open with was the weather.

Like millions of others, I’ve been watching the college basketball tournaments and rooting, naturally, for my alma mater teams from Michigan. So far, both the men’s and the women’s teams have advanced to the sweet-16-round, which are accomplishments of note.

The men’s team is big, strong, fast and skilled and the women’s team is young, connected, talented and aggressive, and both squads have mowed down their early opponents in impressive fashion.

People all over have their own favorites, of course, which is as it should be. Although I’m a fan, I’m not a partisan. By that I mean I don’t hate the players on the opposing teams; I just hope Michigan wins.

Too often in sports, starting at the level of games between little kids, parents, fans and partisans take their fandom too seriously, denigrating opponents, shouting epithets at them, and cheering their demise.

I get it — these loyalties run deep — including in me, but the older I get I just believe in showing a measure of respect for your opponent and grace in victory or defeat.

After all, when two teams clash, only one can win. Losing feels bad, and for that, we all need to remember to have compassion.

(Except, of course, for Ohio State. Go blue!)

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Sunday, March 22, 2026

Trump's War on Everybody

(Note: I wrote this a year ago. It holds.)

The math is made up, the perceived grievances are just that — perceived — but just like everything he does, Trump’s global trade war makes sense according to the twisted logic that guides him.

He believes this will convince people the world over that he is the most powerful man on the planet.

How much actual power he will end up with remains to be seen, but he at least has proved that he is the world’s biggest bully. (Step aside, Vladimir Putin.)

The problem with Trump’s tariffs is they are predicated on the notion that the U.S. economy is a separate entity when in fact it is completely enmeshed in a globalized supply chain of trade deals that makes every country dependent on every other country.

But Trump is right that the U.S. is by far the biggest kid on the block economically, so the pain will be felt disproportionally depending where in the world you live. While U.S. consumers will pay more for stuff, people in the poorest countries will starve.

And with USAID disbanded, the U.S. under Trump will no longer be there to help alleviate the pain.

With one massive blow, Trump has just reversed 75 years of progress, albeit inadequate, to establish a more equitable distribution of resources worldwide. Although they remain far poorer than the rich countries, Third World nations have for the most part been making progress against the pervasive poverty that holds them back.

Meanwhile, Trump doesn’t care about that or anything else outside of his crazed quest for complete power over everyone and everything.

He won’t achieve that goal, but he will cause a lot of pain all over the world in the process.

HEADLINES:

  • Striking Down Pentagon Press Limits, Judge Vindicates Independent Journalism (NYT)

  • Hegseth has repeatedly said the US is upping the frequency of its Iran strikes. The data tells a different story (CNN)

  • Hegseth Invokes Divine Purpose to Justify Military Might (NYT)

  • Iran vows to ‘irreversibly’ destroy infrastructure after Trump ultimatum on Strait of Hormuz (CNN)

  • US lifts sanctions on some Iranian oil as energy prices soar (BBC)

  • Trump says he doesn’t want Iran war ceasefire, but is considering ‘winding down’ military ops (CNBC)

  • Iran Targeted Diego Garcia Base With Ballistic Missiles (BBC)

  • A Look at the Escalating Battle for the Strait of Hormuz (NYT)

  • Immigration agents deploying to airports under border czar as TSA staffing falls short (CNN)

  • The war in Iran is affecting families across the globe (Reveal)

  • DOGE Goes Nuclear: How Trump Invited Silicon Valley Into America’s Nuclear Power Regulator (ProPublica)

  • A massive border wall expansion is underway (WP)

  • When health insurance costs $2,500 per month, families make tough choices (NPR)

  • Donald Trump Throws Another Big Tariff Tanty (Nation)

  • Denmark Was Ready to Blow Up Airfields to Stop a U.S. Invasion of Greenland (NYT)

  • These people used AI to help find their lost pets (WP)

  • Blocking the Internet Archive Won’t Stop AI, But It Will Erase the Web’s Historical Record (EFF)

  • ABC Cancels Mormonism (Onion)

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Saturday, March 21, 2026

Starting Up

On an October day in 1971, I drove an old Chevy van up Fell Street to the Fillmore in San Francisco, on the final leg of a cross-county trek, and restarted my post-college journalism career after a two year hiatus in the Peace Corps.

A small group of us started a magazine called SunDance at 1913 Fillmore Street. It was a large-format magazine, with big graphics and long articles on the intersection of post-Sixties politics and culture.

Actually, it was pure-Sixties in its sensibility; we just didn’t know yet that that era was finished. SunDance had an eclectic list of writers and artists, none more famous than John Lennon and Yoko Ono, who also gave us some money. When they came to visit the office and share stimulants with us, we knew we’d been blessed by the gods. 

Alas, none of us knew what a business plan was, and SunDance lasted all of three issues, though glorious issues they were.

A few years later, I landed across town at Rolling Stone, at 625 Third Street, where celebrities of every stripe poured through the office, and the stimulation never ended. Not being a music writer, I rarely hung out with musicians, but a small group of us formed an ad-hoc investigative unit on staff there, and we did some good work until the founder, Jann Wenner, decided to move the operation to New York.

That same year, 1977, Lowell Bergman, Dan Noyes and I started a non-profit, the Center for Investigative Reporting, and our first office was in the Broadway Building in downtown Oakland. Financing ourselves by a combination of foundation grants and contracts with media outlets, we produced newspaper and magazine articles at first, with books, television and radio documentaries coming later on.

In my mind, the Center would be a place where reporters who worked hard could see their journalistic dreams come true. And for quite a few of us, they did.

(This is an excerpt from a piece I first published in 2006.)

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Friday, March 20, 2026

The Warrior King

Watching the parade of foreign leaders visit Trump on his gilded throne, I’m reminded of some of the great and terrible warriors of the past, like Genghiz Khan, Kublai Khan, Tamerlane or Alexander the Great.

When I lived in Afghanistan, people talked about these Eurasian conquerers in the present tense, as if they were still there. And, in many ways, their awful deeds were still very much part of the fabric of Afghan life.

They came, they conquered and moved on, leaving destruction in their wake. Much as Trump is doing now. He is shredding our democracy and wrecking the alliances with allies that have kept us safe since World War II.

Trump aspires to attain and may somehow actually attain the status of a great historical warrior, as John B. Judis argues in his provocative piece in NOTUS:

“(T)hose leaders — often propelled by megalomania — also overreached, then found themselves bedeviled by forces beyond their control. What Hegel described as “the cunning of reason” invariably caught up with them, making a mess of their ultimate ambitions. Alexander the Great swept through Egypt and the Middle East, but when he tried to conquer India, his troops revolted. Napoleon suffered a major defeat when he tried to expand his empire into Russia. He spent his final years in exile. And instead of solidifying the dominance of France, he bolstered Britain’s power and put Prussia on a path to becoming the continent’s preeminent military force.

“Does the pattern sound familiar? Trump has pushed us into a new stage of history. But it is a stage in which, because of his overreach, America may find itself diminished and disempowered. Whoever wins the White House in 2028 will inherit a fragmented international economy, ruptured alliances and emboldened adversaries, not to mention a divided and angry electorate. That president, and presidents for many years to come, will be operating in a difficult and perilous world — a world Trump remade.”

***
The main point of this piece is even if the Democrats can regain control of our government eventually, it may be too late to undue the damage Trump has done.

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Thursday, March 19, 2026

What Boomers Can Share

One experience common for Baby Boomers when we were kids was air raid drills at school, where we were taught to dive under our desks and shield our heads in the case of a nuclear attack.

If this was supposed to instill confidence about our future prospects, well, Bob Dylan had something to say about that in Talkin’ World War III Blues.

Martin Scorsese’s “No Direction Home” recognized those drills as a decisive influence in the poet’s formative years, and used footage from them to drive the point home. Dylan confirmed it in interviews.

We may have been kids, but we knew it was absurd. Just like Disney’s “Our Friend the Atom,” a pro-nuclear-power episode shown to us twice in 1957. 

Almost as soon as he arrived in Greenwich Village and started singing in nightclubs, Dylan was mixing his recurrent nightmares about World War III into his songs.

These were the early days of the anti-war movement, which — though focused on the Vietnam War — always reflected elements of anti-nuke sentiment as well.

As youngsters, we intuited but were never actually told by our government how close we had repeatedly come to nuclear war until the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. But based on declassified documents, my historian son, who just happens to be named Dylan, documented that Eisenhower threatened to drop the bomb on China on more than one occasion in the fifties.

Meanwhile, in Bob Dylan’s main song on the topic the key generational line is “I’ll let you be in my dreams if I can be in yours.” 

While older people tagged us as the“Me Generation,” I always have preferred the “We Generation,” because we know we are all in this together. 

Let’s hope that during this awful season of Trumpism, that is at least one insight we cam pass on to our heirs.

Recommended by Bruce Koon:: 

“NOTUS Perspectives: Trump as Alexander the Great — A Theory That Explains Iran (And Everything Else)” (NOTUS) 

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