"They Predicted ‘The Crisis of 2020’ … in 1991. So How Does This End?" -- NYT
Certain scholars have foreseen events far in the future based on analyzing the past. Neil Howe and Bill Strauss were two such scholars, as the Times reminded us today. They projected an unprecedented crisis would reshape American society and that it would hit circa 2020.
Their prediction rested on a theory that our society remakes itself every 80 years or so. There is a political aspect to their theory, which I shall skip over in order to consider the more profound insight -- that generations lay down a distinct mark on the world as they come and go, and at critical moments like this one, a new generation will take control.
In our case, this crisis marks the death knell for the Baby Boomers, who recognized the social and economic disparities we inherited, tried to right these wrongs, and made a bit of progress here and there. We also foresaw the great calamity of climate change but failed to do enough about that.
So as my generation passes the controls on to the Millennials (a demographic label coined by Howe and Strauss), the best we can say for ourselves is we tried. Now it is time for the 40-somethings to assume the reins of power and influence.
Unfortunately, it does not appear that will happen at the national political level in this election cycle, but the signs of a great transition are on the horizon no matter your vantage point.
Our deep-seated frustrations are spilling over into the streets now. Institutionalized and internalized racism will continue to act as a volcanic trigger for the immediate days, weeks and months to come. Those resisting this undeniable truth say ignorant things like "looting will lead to shooting." This is reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's lowest moment as a public figure when he called for a "bloodbath" to quell campus demonstrations on April 19, 1970.
The murder of Kent State students by National Guardsmen occurred two weeks later on May 4, 1970.
Will we soon see a repeat of that tragic moment in our history? My sources say there will be protests in Oakland and elsewhere tonight. Tempers are high, guns are loaded.
Once again, America stands at the precipice.
***
When we really look at each other, what do we see? Is the surface of another human being's face the limit or can we look deeper?
This much is certain: Our collective anguish is not going to be extinguished by violence. It can't be relieved by breaking windows or lobbing Molotov cocktails. It can't be relieved by firing tear gas canisters or bullets. Bombs don't work.
Rhetoric doesn't help. Demonizing each other will not illuminate the path to salvation. Retreating into tribal corners will only intensify the cycle of destruction already swirling around us.
And as information reaches us, all of us, we need to avoid the terrible outcome of Plato's Cave. Perhaps "the truth will set you free," but beware of what you see. Reality may not turn out to be as we supposed it to be...what then?
When a prisoner breaks free, visits the outside world and returns to tell us what she has seen, how do we react?
Think about that the next time you get angry at a reporter for telling you something you don't want to hear.
Is it her fault, the reporter? Is it yours? Or is it something less tangible?
I don't know that any fundamental questions are going to be resolved during this turning point in human history. The cynic in me doubts it. But the optimist in me hopes for it.
Everyone has to choose their own analogy based on experience and preference. Today, mine is management. That's because for almost all of my career, I was thrust into management positions inside the companies where I worked.
You can never trust a manager who can't look you in the eye and hold your gaze. When somebody holds a position of power over another, that is a terrible power to hold. The tyranny of the org chart is one of the great evils of corporate life.
Yet how would we ever function without order? Chaos is not an effective operating system. Negentropy is.
Looking at another person is the first step. Seeing is the goal.
-30-
Their prediction rested on a theory that our society remakes itself every 80 years or so. There is a political aspect to their theory, which I shall skip over in order to consider the more profound insight -- that generations lay down a distinct mark on the world as they come and go, and at critical moments like this one, a new generation will take control.
In our case, this crisis marks the death knell for the Baby Boomers, who recognized the social and economic disparities we inherited, tried to right these wrongs, and made a bit of progress here and there. We also foresaw the great calamity of climate change but failed to do enough about that.
So as my generation passes the controls on to the Millennials (a demographic label coined by Howe and Strauss), the best we can say for ourselves is we tried. Now it is time for the 40-somethings to assume the reins of power and influence.
Unfortunately, it does not appear that will happen at the national political level in this election cycle, but the signs of a great transition are on the horizon no matter your vantage point.
Our deep-seated frustrations are spilling over into the streets now. Institutionalized and internalized racism will continue to act as a volcanic trigger for the immediate days, weeks and months to come. Those resisting this undeniable truth say ignorant things like "looting will lead to shooting." This is reminiscent of Ronald Reagan's lowest moment as a public figure when he called for a "bloodbath" to quell campus demonstrations on April 19, 1970.
The murder of Kent State students by National Guardsmen occurred two weeks later on May 4, 1970.
Will we soon see a repeat of that tragic moment in our history? My sources say there will be protests in Oakland and elsewhere tonight. Tempers are high, guns are loaded.
Once again, America stands at the precipice.
***
When we really look at each other, what do we see? Is the surface of another human being's face the limit or can we look deeper?
This much is certain: Our collective anguish is not going to be extinguished by violence. It can't be relieved by breaking windows or lobbing Molotov cocktails. It can't be relieved by firing tear gas canisters or bullets. Bombs don't work.
Rhetoric doesn't help. Demonizing each other will not illuminate the path to salvation. Retreating into tribal corners will only intensify the cycle of destruction already swirling around us.
And as information reaches us, all of us, we need to avoid the terrible outcome of Plato's Cave. Perhaps "the truth will set you free," but beware of what you see. Reality may not turn out to be as we supposed it to be...what then?
When a prisoner breaks free, visits the outside world and returns to tell us what she has seen, how do we react?
Think about that the next time you get angry at a reporter for telling you something you don't want to hear.
Is it her fault, the reporter? Is it yours? Or is it something less tangible?
I don't know that any fundamental questions are going to be resolved during this turning point in human history. The cynic in me doubts it. But the optimist in me hopes for it.
Everyone has to choose their own analogy based on experience and preference. Today, mine is management. That's because for almost all of my career, I was thrust into management positions inside the companies where I worked.
You can never trust a manager who can't look you in the eye and hold your gaze. When somebody holds a position of power over another, that is a terrible power to hold. The tyranny of the org chart is one of the great evils of corporate life.
Yet how would we ever function without order? Chaos is not an effective operating system. Negentropy is.
Looking at another person is the first step. Seeing is the goal.
-30-
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