It's getting to be the time that most of us will be voting in this year's presidential election. We are trying to analyze the information available to us, which includes polls and political ads, as well as the upcoming debate on Tuesday night at 7 p.m. (E.T.)
Most analysts agree that the outcome will come down to a handful of swing states, mainly in the industrial Midwest. I asked my old friend, Doug Foster, journalism professor at Northwestern and my former colleague at the Center for Investigative Reporting and elsewhere, what he thinks will happen out there in his neck of the woods.
"My guess is that Trump narrowly wins Pennsylvania and Biden narrowly wins Michigan and Wisconsin. The number of swing voters is small — maybe two percent in WI and MI, four percent in PA — but the margins for Trump in all three states (last time) was one percent or less."
As for polling, Doug and other journalism friends recommend Monmouth University Polling Institute in New Jersey. Their recent state and national polls indicate a close race for the Electoral College victory just as in 2016.
The popular vote is not in much question; Biden should win by 5 million votes or more.
When it comes to the attack ads and other propaganda generated by the campaigns, the anti-Trump ads created by disaffected Republicans at the Lincoln Project are an unusual feature of this year's election cycle.
I'm unaware of whether they are proving to be effective, however. In general, my view of political ads is they have to be highly adaptive to keep up with the rapidly mutating sense of humor of the general public, though even when it comes to jokes, the country is so divided that what makes one side laugh makes the other side angry.
As for my own twisted sense of humor, I've long embraced the SNL view of politics, where the skits regularly pierce the noise with biting criticism of the candidates on both sides.
Debates can be tricky. From what I've read, Trump plans to do what he always does and attack Biden and his family personally.
Biden is reported to be planning to do what he usually does -- stick to the high road and discuss policy issues, like health care. He may try to ignore Trump's barbs.
That might seem laudable to those who favor a civil debate, but if the Biden camp asked me for advice, I would caution them to avoid a repeat of the Dukakis rape disaster from eight election cycles ago.
To recap:
It was Oct. 13, 1988.
The second and final presidential debate between Vice President George Bush and Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis took place in Los Angeles. The debate began with moderator Bernard Shaw of CNN asking Dukakis, "Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?"
Dukakis replied, "No, I don't, and I think you know that I've opposed the death penalty during all of my life."
That was NOT the right answer.
The right answer would have been: "Forget the death penalty. I would track down the man who did this and beat him to death myself."
***
* Trump paid no income taxes in 10 out of 15 years beginning in 2000. (NYT) Tax bombshell reveals Trump's image is a sham. (CNN) Trump ally Lindsey Graham thinks the President should release tax returns. (CNN)
* Tasmania Whale Rescue Ends With 108 Saved and Over 300 Dead (NYT)
* ‘Schitt’s Creek’ Star, and His Fans, Are Taking Indigenous Studies -- Dan Levy suggested in an Instagram post that his fans study Canadian Indigenous history along with him. About 64,000 people signed up. (NYT)
* The Future of Airbnb -- Home-sharing’s challenges aren’t only about social distancing and hygiene. Overtourism, racial bias, fee transparency and controlling the party crowd are also in the mix. (NYT)
* Facing possible defeat, Trump threatens the integrity of the election (WashPo)
* Pasta, Wine and Inflatable Pools: How Amazon Conquered Italy in the Pandemic -- The e-commerce giant had struggled to gain a foothold in a society that prefers to shop in person, with cash, but now Italians are hooked on online shopping. (NYT)
* Heat wave, dry winds raise threat of new blazes in fire-weary California (WashPo)
* Biden is favored to win the election. Biden 78%. Trump 22%. (538)
***
Well, the big news around here is my pandemic beard is gone -- poof! That, plus I am so restless, in my dreams I'm traveling all over the place. Is anyone else like that?
Dream lover, where are you?
With a love, oh, so true
And the hand that I can hold
To feel you near as I grow old
-- Bobby Darin
-30-
No comments:
Post a Comment