Monday, January 11, 2021

Snake Eyes

(Image courtesy of wiki commons)

I wish we could fast-forward 50 years from now and look back on this moment, but unless someone perfects time travel pretty soon, that is not going to happen. So we are stuck instead with real-time analysis as our only option.

Welcome to the life of a journalist, an intelligence agent, or anyone else with a stake in figuring out the "first rough draft of history" as it is occurring.

It is always going to be difficult to do this work with integrity. Last night, I nearly posted a video that was circulating among the right-wing extremist community that participated in the January 6th Capitol riot and is now plotting its next moves.

The video was hosted on Parler.

But I hesitated, partly because I had identified the person who made it and had contacted him and was waiting for his comment. That's how we operate as journalists; we try to be fair.

Then, at midnight, the video disappeared when Parler was shut down by Amazon, Apple and Google.  Luckily, our friends at Journal of the Plague have preserved it here: <https://www.journaloftheplagueyear.ink/blog/trump-of-the-will>.

The video is instructive in understanding what will be happening over the coming days, as the Trump extremist fringe plots its revenge. Though amateurish in its mixing and editing, the film adopts the tone and content of a fascist diatribe, worshiping Trump and recruiting people to take anti-inauguration action on Trump's behalf on January 20th.

***

Here's the problem  as I see it. As the evidence comes in about just how violent the January 6th incident actually was, Democrats are getting angrier and angrier. They justifiably feel a responsibility to not allow such a heinous act occur on their watch. Plus they were the targets, so they are personally motivated to seek revenge.

They have to act.

So they will and they are. Pence will either agree to invoke the 25th Amendment (a long shot) or they will vote to impeach. If the political will and the votes are not there in the Senate to convict, they'll hold up the process until they take over control of the Senate on January 20th and pursue it then.

On the other side of the political divide, which is deeper and wider than the Grand Canyon, the right-wing has doubled down on its belief that the election was illegitimate and Trump is still the rightful President.

They will continue to follow his coded instructions and engage in insurrectionist acts for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, the efforts to ban Trump's speech on social media will backfire, as I've been warning repeatedly, as it will only drive him  to take more extreme measures and convince his followers that he truly is the victim here.

And no one plays the victim better than Trump, all the while raising millions for his war chest.

Of course, no matter what Trump and his followers do, the U.S. military can easily put down any open rebellion, but it will become increasingly  difficult should they assume guerrilla tactics with hit and run bombings, shootings and kidnappings.

That, sadly, is what I see on the horizon.

I know there are some who will say I am using hyperbole here. I desperately hope they are right and my vision never comes to pass.

But the die have been cast and they turned up snake eyes.


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