In 1906, the British social scientist and mathematician Sir Francis Galton was astounded when he observed a contest at a rural livestock fair. An ox was on display, and the villagers were invited to guess its weight. Nearly 800 people took part, and Galton later calculated that the median estimate they came up with was exactly right -- 1,207 pounds (1,197 dressed), even though no individual among them had guessed the weight correctly.
In his book "The Wisdom of Crowds" published nearly a century later (2004), James Surowiecki used this incident as his opening example to illustrate his contention that aggregating information in groups can result in decisions that are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group.
I love that theory and often cite it but today I want to focus on an obliquely related yet distinct process, which is known as crowd-sourcing. This involves enlisting a large number of people to develop new information, such as solving a mystery and it is commonly used via social media by journalists.
One highly relevant example is the effort being coordinated by John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the University of Toronto, who has been using Twitter this week to marshal the help of a very large group of people in identifying the individuals who led the riot at the U.S. capitol on January 6th.
Watch the CNBC report: <https://www.youtube.com/watchv=pZP2VB9bQ2A&feature=youtu.be>
Among the ringleaders the crowd has been able to identify is ae military veteran who carried zip-ties onto the floor of the Capitol, apparently aiming to handcuff members of Congress once they had been captured by the rioters. Larry Rendall Brock, Jr. is currently in the custody of law enforcement officials, thanks to this crowd-sourcing effort.
Investigators believe that the intention of Brock and some of the others that day may have been to capture political leaders like Pence and Pelosi, put them on trial, and possibly execute them on the spot.
This is just one of the extremely disturbing aspects of the mob attack that are still emerging, as authorities try to interpret clues about what may happen next and whether we are on the verge of a second civil war.
My purpose in mentioning Surowiecki's theory and Scott-Railton's work in the same breath today is to suggest that maybe what we need right now is to fuse the wisdom of the crowds with crowd-sourcing to answer the question looming large over the next few days: What will happen next?
***
Last night, I submitted the form to the county where I am a resident to get the Covid-19 vaccination. Applications are now being accepted for those aged 65 and older. I urge anyone in this category to do so immediately.
The news:
* Pentagon authorizes 25,000 National Guard troops to deploy in Washington, D.C. (CNN)
* Three of the key advisers who helped engineer Donald Trump's' rise to the presidency in 2016, and who fell from grace under the weight of federal criminal charges, resurfaced during Trump's final days in office to help engineer his ill-fated attempt to cling to power. Roger Stone, Steve Bannon, and retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn all participated in efforts to promote the Jan. 6 "Stop the Steal" event that ultimately devolved into a riotous and deadly melee at the United States Capitol, leaving five dead and causing Trump to become the only president to be impeached for a second time. (ABC)
* Global virus death toll hits 2 million (AP)
* Unemployment Claims Rise Sharply, Showing New Economic Pain (NYT)
* Fast-spreading UK coronavirus variant could be dominant in U.S. by March, CDC says (Reuters)
* Experts warn of vaccine stumbles because Trump officials refused to consult with Biden team (WashPo)
* Pence, in call to Harris, offers congratulations (AP)
* Biden’s Stimulus Is a Two-Pronged Attack on Income Inequality (WSJ)
* Trump is spending his last days in the White House enveloped in rage and turmoil. Even as Trump spends time watching TV and venting to aides and confidantes, one tangible issue he has been focused on is how to apply his power to pardon before his term ends. He plans to depart Washington the morning of Joe Biden's inauguration to live at his Mar-a-Lago resort. [Reuters]
* Two rioters say Capitol officer told them, ‘It’s your house now,’ FBI says (WashPo)
* Federal prosecutors offered an ominous new assessment of last week’s siege of the U.S. Capitol, saying in a court filing that rioters intended “to capture and assassinate elected officials.” The filing asks a judge to detain Jacob Chansley, the Arizona man and QAnon conspiracy theorist who was famously photographed wearing horns. This comes alongside the arrest of a retired firefighter amid allegations that he threw a fire extinguisher at U.S. Capitol Police officers. [Reuters]
* Rioters storming Capitol came dangerously close to Pence (WashPo, CNN)
* Senate Plans Trial for Trump as G.O.P. Weighs Risks of Convicting (NYT)
* The Guatemalan military has detained hundreds of migrants at its border as thousands of Hondurans, including many families with young children, continued to walk north on Friday as part of a caravan hoping to reach the United States. (Reuters)
* Newly elected GOP Rep. Peter Meijer, who voted for Trump’s impeachment, said he’s buying body armor to protect himself from the president’s supporters. When MSNBC asked Meijer on Thursday if he had received death threats, the lawmaker said he wasn’t going to let anything deter him from his duty. [HuffPost]
* Trump Ignites a War Within the Church -- After a week of Trumpist mayhem, white evangelicals wrestle with what they’ve become. (David Brooks/NYT)
* Poll finds clear opposition to riot, support to bar Trump from serving again (WashPo)
* At least four airlines announced additional security measures as federal and local officials began increasing protection around the Capitol after last week's deadly riot. (HuffPost)
* Abandon Trump? Deep in the G.O.P. Ranks, the MAGA Mind-Set Prevails (NYT)
* Delta has put some of Trump’s most aggressive supporters on a no-fly list after they harassed Republican Sens. Lindsey Graham and Mitt Romney in airports last week. Delta Air LinesCEO Ed Bastian said that passengers who targeted the senators would no longer be able to fly on the airline. [HuffPost]
* Encrypted apps like Telegram and Signal are exploding since companies like Twitter and Facebook cracked down after the Trump-incited Capitol siege and with right-wing favorite Parler going dark. (Vanity Fair)
* Messaging app Signal facing technical difficulties (Reuters)
* U.S. troops in Afghanistan now down to 2,500, lowest since 2001: Pentagon (Reuters)
* A Raven Queen Vanishes, and Britain Checks a Prophecy -- One of the resident birds at the Tower of London is feared to have died. Legend says at least six must be kept there, or the nation will fall. (NYT)
***
And I served on the Danville train
'Till Stoneman's cavalry came
And tore up the tracks again
We were hungry, just barely alive
By May the 10th, Richmond had fell
It's a time I remember, oh so well
And the bells were ringing
The night they drove old Dixie down
And the people were singing
They went, "Na, na, la, na, na, la"
When one day she called to me
"Virgil, quick, come see,
There goes Robert E. Lee!"
And I don't care if the money's no good
You take what you need
And you leave the rest
But they should never
Have taken the very best
And the bells were ringing
The night they drove old Dixie down
And all the people were singing
They went, "Na, na, la, na, na, la"
I will work the land
And like my brother above me
Who took a rebel stand
But a Yankee laid him in his grave
I swear by the mud below my feet
You can't raise a Kane back up
When he's in defeat
-- Robbie Robertson
-30-
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