Case in point: space travel.
We know the universe is vast and that the odds of other inhabitable worlds are extremely good. We also know that the sun will ultimately explode and die, rendering life on this planet impossible. So for our species to survive we will have to travel.
While we believe these things to be true, our ability to do anything about them is apparently limited by the laws of physics. On the other hand, a relatively new law, quantum mechanics, suggests none of those constraints are immutable -- that space and time and consciousness are all figments, so to speak, of our imagination.
Thinking too hard about all this will take us around the circle Feynman so eloquently described. Intellectually, there is no escape.
But some of us yearn to break away from the constraints that bind us to current reality. Perhaps none more than journalists, who are stuck covering reality in detail every day. We are perpetually unsatisfied. That is where some combination of art and fiction come in, as our most imaginative impulses take the form of music, dance, painting, sculpture, novels, short stories, poems and more.
These help deliver the future to us. Meanwhile, predicting it is, at best, a crap shoot.
One of the books I'm reading is "Super Forecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction," by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. The book describes a massive effort by an army of volunteers to forecast global events. According to this research, once they given the best evidence, about two percent of those involved prove to be "super forecasters," able with uncanny accuracy to figure out what is going to happen next about almost anything.
Evidence-based forecasting is in vogue in journalism and other fields; data scientists have come to the fore. I've got nothing against data scientists (we have a special one in our family), or "data journalists," who've worked with me in the past, but there are limits to what they can contribute as well.
And it's precisely where the data-based approach hits a wall that fiction via our collective imagination takes over.
This is how I explain my own preoccupation with novels and movies. "You had me from 'Hello,'" says Dorothy Boyd to 'Jerry McGuire' in that film's climactic scene.
That fits me & fiction perfectly. "You had me from hello."
***
The news:
* Man Who Is Paralyzed Communicates By Imagining Handwriting -- By decoding the brain signals involved in handwriting, researchers have allowed a man who is paralyzed to transform his thoughts into words on a computer screen. (NPR)
* The new CNN is more opinionated and emotional. Can it still be ‘the most trusted name in news’? (WP)
* Gas stations in the Southeast run out of gas as people panic buy fuel (CNN)
* To Vaccinate Younger Teens, States and Cities Look to Schools, Camps, Even Beaches (NYT)
* Indian coronavirus variant has now spread to almost 50 countries, says WHO (WP)
* House GOP ousts Trump critic Liz Cheney from top post (AP)
* On the eve of her ouster as House Republican Conference chair, Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) took to the House floor Tuesday and doubled down on her condemnation of former President Donald Trump and his lies about a “stolen” election. (HuffPost)
* Though Cheney is now standing up to Trump's lies, she long stood with his outrages ranging from flirting with birthers to pushing anti-Muslim rhetoric. [HuffPost]
* Israel Airstrikes Leave Widespread Damage in Gaza (AP)
* Senior Hamas commander killed as Israel strikes Gaza, Palestinians fire rockets (Reuters)
* Death toll climbs, protests intensify as Israel and Gaza slip toward war (WP)
* More Than 30 Dead in Gaza and Israel as Fighting Quickly Escalates (NYT)
* Violence upends Biden’s Israel-Palestinian outlook (AP)
* UN warns conflict could turn into 'full-scale war' (CNN)
* In Iraq, powerful militias assassinate protesters with impunity (WP)
* Wall St drops as strong inflation data fuels rate hike bets (Reuters)
* As World Runs Short of Workers, a Boost for Wages—and Inflation (WSJ)
* Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa and several other GOP-run states have said they'll drop federal jobless benefits, which Republican governors blame for worker shortages. Congress intended for the extra benefits to stay in place until early September. [HuffPost]
* While the country suffers another bloody weekend, gun safety legislation languishes in the Senate (WP)
* Why a Lifelong Republican Views Arizona’s Recount as Wrong -- Bill Gates (another one), who's an election supervisor in Maricopa County, says the audit of votes in his state is based on the lie of election fraud, and is “tearing at the foundations of our democracy.” (NYT)
* ‘A hell out here’: COVID-19 ravages rural India (Reuters)
* Mysterious, devastating brain disorder afflicts dozens in Canadian province of New Brunswick (WP)
* According to a new poll, 49% of voters in California say they intend to vote against replacing recalled Gov. Gavin Newson (D), an increase from three months ago. He will need only a plurality of the vote, which has yet to be scheduled, to keep his job -- not an absolute majority. [HuffPost]
* Police shootings of children spark new outcry, calls for training to deal with adolescents in crisis (WP)
* German government agrees on tougher climate targets (Reuters)
* Urban heat waves, loss of Alaskan permafrost signal intensifying climate change, EPA finds in report delayed by Trump officials (WP)
* The Hitter Who Bats Like Ty Cobb -- The Washington Nationals’ Josh Harrison defies modern convention by how he holds a baseball bat: he keeps his hands several inches apart (WSJ)
* Manchester City Clinches Premier League Title (WSJ)
* Palestinian Family Who Lost Home In Airstrike Takes Comfort In Knowing This All Very Complicated (The Onion)
***
"You Had Me From Hello"
Sung by Kenny Chesney
Written by Donald R Ewing Ii / Kenneth A. Chesney
Something in your voice called me, caused me to turn my head.
Your smile just captured me, you were in my future as far as I could see.
And I don't know how it happened, but it happens still.
You ask me if I love you, if I always will
I felt love start to grow the moment I looked into your eyes,
You won me, it was over from the start.
You completely stole my heart, and now you won't let go.
I never even had a chance you know?
You had me from "Hello"
One touch, you brought it down
Bricks of my defenses scattered on the ground
And I swore to me that I wasn't going to love again
The last time was the last time I'd let someone in
I felt love start to grow the moment I looked into your eyes,
You won me, it was over from the start.
You completely stole my heart, and now you won't let go.
I never even had a chance you know?
You had me from "Hello"
Something in your voice calls me, caused me to turn my head
You had me from "Hello"
You had me from "Hello"
Girl, I've loved you from "Hello"
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